Mike Evans in 2020

[Jigga94]

I think both WR were due for regression no matter the QB they signed/drafted. This is the best option for the near future.

I agree that Jameis was sort of the perfect storm for fantasy purposes. They played from behind a lot so they threw it a ton. Even when he threw INT it feels like a bunch were pick 6 or they'd get the ball back.

However, this is Tom Brady we are talking about. Sure he may not be able to throw a 50 yard deep ball, but I think the WR will survive without that. Arians is still there so I wouldn't be panicking much at all.

They could've signed Rivers or Cam or Teddy. Can someone really tell me they'd prefer one of those options? Last year wasn't going to be duplicated anyway imo

[jetsfan5757]

What kind of regression, exactly, for Evans? Stats right in line w career numbers.

More mouths to feed than past I guess...

General comment, not responding to post above: We're talking about the GOAT joining the team and it feels like people are talking about Phillip Rivers in 5 more years, or the shell of Peyton that retired. Brady can still do what makes him great...

[FantasyFreak]

What kind of regression, exactly, for Evans? Stats right in line w career numbers.

More mouths to feed than past I guess...

General comment, not responding to post above: We're talking about the GOAT joining the team and it feels like people are talking about Phillip Rivers in 5 more years, or the shell of Peyton that retired. Brady can still do what makes him great...

He can. If the Bucs win more, they won't be throwing quite as much, but i still believe 4500 yards is in the cards for Brady.

[PR0v3]

Are we still running with the idea that Winston and Fitzmagic were bad? I get where they both struggled but for fantasy this can only be seen as a downgrade, it just seems like wishing that this will somehow be improved efficiency to counter the lower volume/big play ability.
I own Godwin so I would be pleasantly surprised if this is only a minor downgrade and call it a win.

Yea Jameis->Brady is a clear downgrade, for fantasy purposes. Brady is not putting up anywhere near 5000/30 at this stage in his career. With Brady’s talent at this stage in his career, we’re probably looking at a 3900/24 season with a lower % of those passes going to WRs. This is all around bad news for Evans and Godwin as they’re probably 3 years away, at minimum, from the possibility of having a high powered passing attack.

Why not? I mean, even if Jameis stayed, the chances o him throwing 5,000 again were slim, but Brady put up over 4000 yards and 24 TD"s without any outside threat last year at all. Why can't he significantly improve that when his passing weapons have also significantly improved? Brady will put up way more than 3900 yards and 24 TD's if he plays 16 games. I think 4500/30 is completely reasonable. Rivers threw for over 4.600 last year, and Brady's arm is better than his at this point. The difference was Rivers had better WR's than Brady last year, and the Pats had a really good D that meant they could run the ball in the 2nd half a lot more. TB's D is nowhere near what the Pats was last year.

BTW Godwin is a FA next year, too, so he's not locked in to TB.

His on field play isn’t suggestive of somebody capable of throwing for 5000/30. Those are difficult numbers to hit when you can’t push the ball downfield. But even if he were to somehow hit those numbers, he won’t be targeting the outside WRs at a rate as frequent as Jameis last year because that is not his game at this stage. It’s a clear downgrade in situation for Evans and Godwin, the chances of them maintaining production similar to last year is near zero.

[FantasyFreak]

Yea Jameis->Brady is a clear downgrade, for fantasy purposes. Brady is not putting up anywhere near 5000/30 at this stage in his career. With Brady’s talent at this stage in his career, we’re probably looking at a 3900/24 season with a lower % of those passes going to WRs. This is all around bad news for Evans and Godwin as they’re probably 3 years away, at minimum, from the possibility of having a high powered passing attack.

Why not? I mean, even if Jameis stayed, the chances o him throwing 5,000 again were slim, but Brady put up over 4000 yards and 24 TD"s without any outside threat last year at all. Why can't he significantly improve that when his passing weapons have also significantly improved? Brady will put up way more than 3900 yards and 24 TD's if he plays 16 games. I think 4500/30 is completely reasonable. Rivers threw for over 4.600 last year, and Brady's arm is better than his at this point. The difference was Rivers had better WR's than Brady last year, and the Pats had a really good D that meant they could run the ball in the 2nd half a lot more. TB's D is nowhere near what the Pats was last year.

BTW Godwin is a FA next year, too, so he's not locked in to TB.

His on field play isn’t suggestive of somebody capable of throwing for 5000/30. Those are difficult numbers to hit when you can’t push the ball downfield. But even if he were to somehow hit those numbers, he won’t be targeting the outside WRs at a rate as frequent as Jameis last year because that is not his game at this stage. It’s a clear downgrade in situation for Evans and Godwin, the chances of them maintaining production similar to last year is near zero.

Brady still can push the ball down the field, he didn't have guys he could do that with. His arm is better than Rivers by quite a bit, and Rivers still put up 4600 plus. Not saying 5000, but 4500 is a number I expect he can hit.

[CGW]

Yeah he did 4k yards last year with Edelman as his only capable WR. I also think he's going downhill fairly quickly, but could easily see him putting up 4500 yards.

[jetsfan5757]

I hope someone shows Brady this chat. He'll put up 6k and 60. Lol. Exaggerating by a mile, but agree with those who say 4,500 and 30 well within reach. Maybe even higher on the TDs.

[FantasyFreak]

I hope someone shows Brady this chat. He'll put up 6k and 60. Lol. Exaggerating by a mile, but agree with those who say 4,500 and 30 well within reach. Maybe even higher on the TDs.

I believe he was 9th in deep ball accuracy last year, so I think Evans should be fine.

[Orenthal Shames]

Evans seems more likely to dip being that he's thrived on huge volume. With Brady, the efficiency should increase but I'd imagine the opportunity will decrease.

[Cameron Giles]

Evans career on a points per game basis:

2019: WR5
2018: WR9
2017: WR20 (5 touchdowns)
2016: WR2
2015: WR23 (3 touchdowns)
2014: WR12

Predicting the yards each year is tough, and will likely fluctuate between a range (80-90yd/g), but as long as he's in that range and gets 8TD+, he's probably a WR1. Can't see any reason that doesn't happen with Brady

[FantasyFreak]

Evans seems more likely to dip being that he's thrived on huge volume. With Brady, the efficiency should increase but I'd imagine the opportunity will decrease.

He may, but Evans has only had 2 seasons over 140 targets. He only had 118 last year, and was still a WR1, despite missing a few games. I still expect him to be in the 130 plus target range.

[Ice]

I would downgrade all TB WR's. This team will probably bring in a RB and be far more balanced this season.

Think I would push a few more chips in that Godwin is the top WR due to route diversity but this team will be better NFL wise but doubt it's better for fantasy.

Don't see this because of a Brady deficiency but due to his strengths of ball control, running game, TE passes. He plays chess against defenses. Winston just threw it all over the place to both teams.

[FantasyFreak]

I would downgrade all TB WR's. This team will probably bring in a RB and be far more balanced this season.

Think I would push a few more chips in that Godwin is the top WR due to route diversity but this team will be better NFL wise but doubt it's better for fantasy.

Don't see this because of a Brady deficiency but due to his strengths of ball control, running game, TE passes. He plays chess against defenses. Winston just threw it all over the place to both teams.

I agree they should be in more positive game scripts. The fact Evans has never been under 1000 yards gives me confidence he'll hit that again, and I can only hope he becomes a favourite of Brady in the red zone. I think there is very little chance Rojo is the lead back, and although I think they will be more balanced, I also think they will not keep the foot off the pedal when in the lead. The Bucs were 7-9, but Winston threw something like 6 of his 7 picks sixes in games that finished under a TD in difference I believe, so the Bucs are a sneaky contender for the playoffs. I think 5000 yards was always a doubtful repeat, no matter who it was at QB, but I think that the Bucs will be a more balanced and efficient offense this season. With the OL being a weakness, I also expect a lot of inline blocking for TE's, so I don't see that as a position to invest in. The WR's should still do well, but top 10 finishes for both is very unlikely, unless everything goes right.

[Ice]

I would downgrade all TB WR's. This team will probably bring in a RB and be far more balanced this season.

Think I would push a few more chips in that Godwin is the top WR due to route diversity but this team will be better NFL wise but doubt it's better for fantasy.

Don't see this because of a Brady deficiency but due to his strengths of ball control, running game, TE passes. He plays chess against defenses. Winston just threw it all over the place to both teams.

I agree they should be in more positive game scripts. The fact Evans has never been under 1000 yards gives me confidence he'll hit that again, and I can only hope he becomes a favourite of Brady in the red zone. I think there is very little chance Rojo is the lead back, and although I think they will be more balanced, I also think they will not keep the foot off the pedal when in the lead. The Bucs were 7-9, but Winston threw something like 6 of his 7 picks sixes in games that finished under a TD in difference I believe, so the Bucs are a sneaky contender for the playoffs. I think 5000 yards was always a doubtful repeat, no matter who it was at QB, but I think that the Bucs will be a more balanced and efficient offense this season. With the OL being a weakness, I also expect a lot of inline blocking for TE's, so I don't see that as a position to invest in. The WR's should still do well, but top 10 finishes for both is very unlikely, unless everything goes right.

Very good Post!

[kmbryant09]

Any chance Arians moves Mike Evans to the Larry Fitzgerald style of chain moving/blocking monster if Brady really can't throw a deep ball anymore? Won't be as sexy as connecting with Winston on rainbows, but could be good for PPR, especially if the volume is there

Definitely not.

They already have Godwin in that role, and he crushed it last year. Godwin is better suited than Evans for the big slot role in Arians' offense anyway, no reason to change things up.