Is Landry a Sell high ?

[Vcize]

The 170 target thing is a bit of a non-starter anyway because Landry was a high WR2 last year with 130 targets. His buying price is of a barely WR2 anyway. No one is paying four 1sts for Landry or whatever it would cost to get a 24 year old high WR1 that people expected to continue putting up that truly top level production.

Beyond that, this whole 170 targets for 800 yards is such a weird thing to harp on too. It's like you keep ignoring that this isn't the only season he's played and it's clearly an outlier with the most miserable offensive situation possible. He had 1136 yards last year on 131 targets.

[cweds]

Is his low yards at the catch really an indictment of his talent or simply how they use him? I haven't watched his routes closely but if he's only getting short routes how is he supposed to raise his yards at the catch number? We saw last year that he can produce over 1100 yards on 130 targets and we're seeing this year that he isn't actually allergic to the end zone.

[Cameron Giles]

The 170 target thing is a bit of a non-starter anyway because Landry was a high WR2 last year with 130 targets. His buying price is of a barely WR2 anyway. No one is paying four 1sts for Landry or whatever it would cost to get a 24 year old high WR1 that people expected to continue putting up that truly top level production.

Beyond that, this whole 170 targets for 800 yards is such a weird thing to harp on too. It's like you keep ignoring that this isn't the only season he's played and it's clearly an outlier with the most miserable offensive situation possible. He had 1136 yards last year on 131 targets.

This season is not an outlier. I've already shown you that in terms of YatC, he has always been among the league worst at the WR position. You're correct that it's an exaggeration of how he's been used. However, the consistency is still how he's been used. In past seasons he got more YAC, but that's still so hard to rely on when you're catching the ball so close to the line of scrimmage.

Go back to Page 2 and read Football Outsiders' study on Landry. Here's an excerpt:

"This table is sorted by descending ALEX, and that column alone really explains why Landry is at a disadvantage in generating efficient plays for his offense. His ALEX is minus-2.7, meaning his average target is thrown 2.7 yards short of the first-down marker. The average ALEX for the other 27 receivers is plus-2.9, or 2.9 yards beyond the first-down marker. You can see that slot receivers tend to have the lowest ALEX, though Golden Tate (minus-1.6) is the only other receiver below minus-1.0. Some of the deep threats such as Sammy Watkins (plus-6.4), DeSean Jackson (plus-6.4), and Mike Evans (plus-6.1) are getting their targets more than 6 yards past the marker. Landry's average target is thrown only 6.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the shortest of any wideout studied.

This makes it easier for Landry to rack up receptions, but it's quite difficult to turn those plays into successful gains, or to generate YAC that exceeds expectations. That's why his YAC+ is rather average here at minus-0.1. While you won't find strong correlation between ALEX and DYAR, there is no denying that the location of Landry's targets is a detriment to his success.

That "throw it to him short and see if he can break tackles" style is what makes Landry unique for a No. 1 wideout, but uniqueness does not always transfer into value-added performance."

[dynastyninja]

If I'm an NFL team I would love to get Landry on my squad. A reliable receiver who is good for 7-8 yards minimum is valuable. Throw it to him on first or second down and it makes the next play much more manageable (if he isn't able to run for the first).

[dynastyninja]

The 170 target thing is a bit of a non-starter anyway because Landry was a high WR2 last year with 130 targets. His buying price is of a barely WR2 anyway. No one is paying four 1sts for Landry or whatever it would cost to get a 24 year old high WR1 that people expected to continue putting up that truly top level production.

Beyond that, this whole 170 targets for 800 yards is such a weird thing to harp on too. It's like you keep ignoring that this isn't the only season he's played and it's clearly an outlier with the most miserable offensive situation possible. He had 1136 yards last year on 131 targets.

This season is not an outlier. I've already shown you that in terms of YatC, he has always been among the league worst at the WR position. You're correct that it's an exaggeration of how he's been used. However, the consistency is still how he's been used. In past seasons he got more YAC, but that's still so hard to rely on when you're catching the ball so close to the line of scrimmage.

Go back to Page 2 and read Football Outsiders' study on Landry. Here's an excerpt:

"This table is sorted by descending ALEX, and that column alone really explains why Landry is at a disadvantage in generating efficient plays for his offense. His ALEX is minus-2.7, meaning his average target is thrown 2.7 yards short of the first-down marker. The average ALEX for the other 27 receivers is plus-2.9, or 2.9 yards beyond the first-down marker. You can see that slot receivers tend to have the lowest ALEX, though Golden Tate (minus-1.6) is the only other receiver below minus-1.0. Some of the deep threats such as Sammy Watkins (plus-6.4), DeSean Jackson (plus-6.4), and Mike Evans (plus-6.1) are getting their targets more than 6 yards past the marker. Landry's average target is thrown only 6.5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage, the shortest of any wideout studied.

This makes it easier for Landry to rack up receptions, but it's quite difficult to turn those plays into successful gains, or to generate YAC that exceeds expectations. That's why his YAC+ is rather average here at minus-0.1. While you won't find strong correlation between ALEX and DYAR, there is no denying that the location of Landry's targets is a detriment to his success.

That "throw it to him short and see if he can break tackles" style is what makes Landry unique for a No. 1 wideout, but uniqueness does not always transfer into value-added performance."

That stat (ALEX) was created specifically to paint Alex Smith in a negative light. It is interesting, but it really just highlights individual players' styles. I don't think it's a knock on Landry here.

Think about it from a football perspective. I'd take 7.8 yards on a play any day. That's a first down or close to it. Mix a few of those in a drive and you're set.

I don't absolutely love Landry and think he's a stud, but I can see why a team would want to add him and what he would bring to a team. Throwing to him is like a good gain on the ground (4.9 yards per target).

[Ghosted]

I don't think this has anything to do with how Landry is being deployed. His catch rate from 15-plus yards is below league average, and from 20, 25 and 30 yards + his catch rate is ~10 points below league average. Landry "wins" with his short-intermediate routes, and even then, not at a much better rate than the league average. Miami knows this, so his AYA and aDOT suffer as a result (6.3 - Edelman's was 8.8 last year. Landry also had 853 air yards last year, compared to Edelman's 1400. Just because they play the slot, doesn't mean they're comparable). If Miami had the capable pieces on offense to funnel targets elsewhere, they would. As I said earlier, it's just not efficient. Not saying Landry is a bad player, but I would be concerned if he played for a more efficient offense, for sure.

[Never Veto1]

I suggest trading him while you can get an over-inflated value. Also if his only value is that he's gonna catch over a 100 balls and not break a 1,000 yards, maybe people should stop playing PPR and move to .5 PPR

[dynastyninja]

I suggest trading him while you can get an over-inflated value. Also if his only value is that he's gonna catch over a 100 balls and not break a 1,000 yards, maybe people should stop playing PPR and move to .5 PPR

Over-inflated is laughable. His current ADP is WR20. He's the WR7 this year, WR13 last year, and WR9 the previous year. If anything, the market is pricing him correctly. I'm sure there are only a few receivers who have outscored him over this 3-year period.

[Sterling Archer]

Because he's small and not the least bit athletic? I know we all want to think that our players are going to triumph over adversity. Less targets? They'll do more with them! Another WR signed to compete? My player will have less double teams. But in reality, significantly fewer targets = less production 99% of the time. Landry is not special enough to buck that trend. He's got utility and someone will pay him, but they won't be paying him to get a ton of targets. He'll be there to convert tough 3rd and mid situations.

But isn't this the opposite of that. All he does is produce, and yet every year people find some kind of excuse as to why he won't be able to keep it up. First Parker was going to be the man. Then Carroo was going to replace him. Then Cutler was just going to throw deep balls to Parker all game long. I guess the new one is he'll go to a new team and not get as many targets. We keep trying to come up with reasons as to why Landry won't be successful, and yet he continues to prove the doubters wrong. I'll just wait till next year to have this conversation again and see what the new excuse is going to be.

He’s not even projected to get to 1,000 yards on the season and people are defending him bc all he does is produce? In what world does that make any sense.

Fantasy points is all I care about. You also conveniently left out the TDs and receptions. And the fact that he's gone over 1,000 yards the past two seasons.

You keep moving the goal posts. Landry has historically had one of the worst TD/rec ratios (this year is an aberration). His YPR is very poor. And yet you say "all he does is produce" as justification for NFL teams to give him targets then later citing that he's producing fantasy points, rather than useful NFL stats like first downs, yards, and touchdowns.

Unless an NFL GM has him on his dynasty team, I don't think they'll be prioritizing him as a FA target hog in 2018. He's a good NFL player. Great hands, plenty of grit. But what he's not is an elite WR deserving of 150+ targets. He's a small, slow, slot WR. He's got his utility in the NFL, but on a team with a true WR1 (I'm not a Parker truther at all), I think his role will be much less fantasy friendly.

[Never Veto1]

I suggest trading him while you can get an over-inflated value. Also if his only value is that he's gonna catch over a 100 balls and not break a 1,000 yards, maybe people should stop playing PPR and move to .5 PPR

Over-inflated is laughable. His current ADP is WR20. He's the WR7 this year, WR13 last year, and WR9 the previous year. If anything, the market is pricing him correctly. I'm sure there are only a few receivers who have outscored him over this 3-year period.

Who is drafting right now? Also ADP is just a guide line, not law. Once again by him only having 472 yds shows how PPR leagues overinflat the value of receptions. He's 38th in receiving yards and 1st in receptions and 25th in YAC, that tells me he's completely volume dependent which is the story of his career. I'd rather trade him while I can, cause if he leaves Miami, I don't see him leading the league in receptions

[dynastyninja]

I suggest trading him while you can get an over-inflated value. Also if his only value is that he's gonna catch over a 100 balls and not break a 1,000 yards, maybe people should stop playing PPR and move to .5 PPR

Over-inflated is laughable. His current ADP is WR20. He's the WR7 this year, WR13 last year, and WR9 the previous year. If anything, the market is pricing him correctly. I'm sure there are only a few receivers who have outscored him over this 3-year period.

Who is drafting right now? Also ADP is just a guide line, not law. Once again by him only having 472 yds shows how PPR leagues overinflat the value of receptions. He's 38th in receiving yards and 1st in receptions and 25th in YAC, that tells me he's completely volume dependent which is the story of his career. I'd rather trade him while I can, cause if he leaves Miami, I don't see him leading the league in receptions

Obviously it's a guideline, but it's definitely the best way to gauge player value. He was WR20 before the season started, so his value hasn't changed at all. Nobody is paying three 1st rounders for him, but he's definitely worth one and I'd consider two late 1sts.

I agree that he's volume-dependent. I also think his only elite trait is his hands and ability to catch anything. After all that, he's still a great target who will help teams move the chains. That's valuable, and I expect any team that signs him will use him kinda like Miami does.

[Ghosted]

Over-inflated is laughable. His current ADP is WR20. He's the WR7 this year, WR13 last year, and WR9 the previous year. If anything, the market is pricing him correctly. I'm sure there are only a few receivers who have outscored him over this 3-year period.

Who is drafting right now? Also ADP is just a guide line, not law. Once again by him only having 472 yds shows how PPR leagues overinflat the value of receptions. He's 38th in receiving yards and 1st in receptions and 25th in YAC, that tells me he's completely volume dependent which is the story of his career. I'd rather trade him while I can, cause if he leaves Miami, I don't see him leading the league in receptions

Obviously it's a guideline, but it's definitely the best way to gauge player value. He was WR20 before the season started, so his value hasn't changed at all. Nobody is paying three 1st rounders for him, but he's definitely worth one and I'd consider two late 1sts.

I agree that he's volume-dependent. I also think his only elite trait is his hands and ability to catch anything. After all that, he's still a great target who will help teams move the chains. That's valuable, and I expect any team that signs him will use him kinda like Miami does.

That may or may not end up being true, but there's no data to support it. He's in a very unique situation currently. From a league-wide perspective, there isn't any other team that uses a WR with as poor of efficiency numbers as frequently as the Dolphins use Landry.

[dynastyninja]

Who is drafting right now? Also ADP is just a guide line, not law. Once again by him only having 472 yds shows how PPR leagues overinflat the value of receptions. He's 38th in receiving yards and 1st in receptions and 25th in YAC, that tells me he's completely volume dependent which is the story of his career. I'd rather trade him while I can, cause if he leaves Miami, I don't see him leading the league in receptions

Obviously it's a guideline, but it's definitely the best way to gauge player value. He was WR20 before the season started, so his value hasn't changed at all. Nobody is paying three 1st rounders for him, but he's definitely worth one and I'd consider two late 1sts.

I agree that he's volume-dependent. I also think his only elite trait is his hands and ability to catch anything. After all that, he's still a great target who will help teams move the chains. That's valuable, and I expect any team that signs him will use him kinda like Miami does.

That may or may not end up being true, but there's no data to support it. He's in a very unique situation currently. From a league-wide perspective, there isn't any other team that uses a WR with as poor of efficiency numbers as frequently as the Dolphins use Landry.

I mean more from the strategic perspective, not volume. No idea what kind of volume he'd get, but I expect teams won't start sending him deep. He'd still be the mostly short and intermediate receiver who helps move the chains.

[Ghosted]

I mean more from the strategic perspective, not volume. No idea what kind of volume he'd get, but I expect teams won't start sending him deep. He'd still be the mostly short and intermediate receiver who helps move the chains.

I agree, but that's also where the concern originates from. How many other inefficient WR's are used in that manner that carry enough volume to support them being a consistent WR2, much less a WR1? Tate is probable the closest comp, but he has even been much more efficient throughout his career (outside of this year). I own Landry in the league that I value the most, so I certainly get it. But for his owners that are screaming at the Dolphins, thinking that they have been the issue (or that the offensive scheme has been), I feel that most are going to be really disappointed if/when he leaves.

[dynastyninja]

I mean more from the strategic perspective, not volume. No idea what kind of volume he'd get, but I expect teams won't start sending him deep. He'd still be the mostly short and intermediate receiver who helps move the chains.

I agree, but that's also where the concern originates from. How many other inefficient WR's are used in that manner that carry enough volume to support them being a consistent WR2, much less a WR1? Tate is probable the closest comp, but he has even been much more efficient throughout his career (outside of this year). I own Landry in the league that I value the most, so I certainly get it. But for his owners that are screaming at the Dolphins, thinking that they have been the issue (or that the offensive scheme has been), I feel that most are going to be really disappointed if/when he leaves.

I guess the way I look at it is Landry provides real value to a team. I think most teams who sign him will still give him a good number of targets, which he will convert into a solid number of catches. So, in my mind, most teams who sign him will give him enough targets to end up as a WR2 (even if it's low-end).

At his current price of WR20, he's 100% worth it. A low-end WR2/high-end WR3 who is 24-years old can be really valuable if you can pay WR20 prices to acquire him. All that, plus he has WR1/2 upside if he lands in a situation similar to Miami's. It's really a no-brainer to me.