Is Landry a Sell high ?

[Goddard]

Sure, but presumably NFL teams have access to this data as well and any team that signs him for good money (which he is probably going to command) is going to plan on using him the same way.

Where do the NE slot receivers rank in stat that going back 5ish years?

But, why would they? Landry's a good player, but targeting him at high volume is inefficient and a poor way of moving the ball through the air. The hope would be that he's secretly a big play WR, but the YatC doesn't support it. When you consider that, it makes sense why Miami is willing to move on. He's probably not going to be worth the money he gets in terms of offensive impact.

Edelman:

2016 - 6.13
2015 - 6.02
2014 - 5.67
2013 - 5.30

Not as bad as Landry.

Let's put it like this. In terms of yards at the catch, a lot of the NFL's best WR's rank high each year. For total yards at the catch (avg in parentheses) in 2016:

1. Evans (12.0)
2. Hilton (12.2)
3. Julio (11.88)
4. Jordy (9.45)
5. Antonio (8.46)
6. Beckham (8.41)
7. Pryor (10.62)
8. Cooks (10.28)
9. Sanders (9.78)
10. Crabtree (8.48)

Every NFL WR is volume dependent to some degree, but players who have a high YatC are not as volume dependent.

None of the guys listed above play in the slot primarily. As for Edelman, he played with Brady and in a great offensive system. Swap him out with Landry, I'm not sure his numbers wouldn't have been similar, if not better.

[Vcize]

Sure, but presumably NFL teams have access to this data as well and any team that signs him for good money (which he is probably going to command) is going to plan on using him the same way.

Where do the NE slot receivers rank in stat that going back 5ish years?

But, why would they? Landry's a good player, but targeting him at high volume is inefficient and a poor way of moving the ball through the air.

Says who? The best offense of the last decade spent the majority of it with a heavily targeted slot receiver catching balls near the line of scrimmage.

It's silly to try and argue that Miami's offense stinks this year because they're throwing so much to Landry. It stinks because they have a bad QB, a bad coach, and a terrible offensive line that brings everyone down.

Their offense this year ranks better than the Bengals (who not coincidentally also have a terrible offensive line), does that mean that throwing downfield to AJ Green is a poor way of running an offense?

[Cameron Giles]

No one knows what another team will or will not do, or even if Landry will go to another team. What we do know for a fact is that Landry has been one of the more consistent fantasy WRs every year, and to assume that he'll all of a sudden become irrelevant or bad seems like a reach.

Irrelevant? No. A significant decline in production from a noticeable decline in volume? Yes.

None of the guys listed above play in the slot primarily. As for Edelman, he played with Brady and in a great offensive system. Swap him out with Landry, I'm not sure his numbers wouldn't have been similar, if not better.

And if Landry continues to play in the slot, it's going to be more of the same.

[Cameron Giles]

Says who? The best offense of the last decade spent the majority of it with a heavily targeted slot receiver catching balls near the line of scrimmage.

It's silly to try and argue that Miami's offense stinks this year because they're throwing so much to Landry. It stinks because they have a bad QB, a bad coach, and a terrible offensive line that brings everyone down.

The best offense of the last decade also had Rob Gronkowski. The balance of a big play TE in Gronkowski and a "high" percentage route runner in Edelman is big. Miami doesn't have that balance, so they only get the yin and not the yang. Unfortunately, the yang is a much more dependable aspect than the yin.

I'm not saying that an offense can't be useful with Landry being a significant weapon. But an offense can't be successful with Landry as the significant weapon, unless he becomes more of a big play receiver.

Their offense this year ranks better than the Bengals (who not coincidentally also have a terrible offensive line), does that mean that throwing downfield to AJ Green is a poor way of running an offense?

Avg. Yards at the Catch - 2017

A.J. Green - 10.84
Jarvis Landry - 4.18

Green is not the problem. He's the only thing holding their offense up from being a weekly fantasy streamer for DST's.

Throwing underneath to slot receivers at extreme volume is not the best way to primarily move the ball.

[Phaded]

Ignoring how many yards at catch - does anyone have access to something like the number of short, intermediate and deep routes vs his catches?

Based on what I have seen and not going based off the numbers, I am not so sure they have even given him the chance to be anything but the checkdown option.

Whether Landry is actually capable of it is something I believe we have not seen.

[nathanq42]

Landry is a technician in the slot that has one of the best feels for finding openings in coverage. He has great routes and hands, tbh he is just like obj (both played at LSU, best friends, similar skills) difference being that Landry is not as athletically gifted as OBJ. I cannot wait to see Landry move to somewhere that he can shine as a #2, Tampa/Chicago (if they sign a WR1) would be awesome spots for him

[Goddard]

No one knows what another team will or will not do, or even if Landry will go to another team. What we do know for a fact is that Landry has been one of the more consistent fantasy WRs every year, and to assume that he'll all of a sudden become irrelevant or bad seems like a reach.

Irrelevant? No. A significant decline in production from a noticeable decline in volume? Yes.

None of the guys listed above play in the slot primarily. As for Edelman, he played with Brady and in a great offensive system. Swap him out with Landry, I'm not sure his numbers wouldn't have been similar, if not better.

And if Landry continues to play in the slot, it's going to be more of the same.

How is more of the same a bad thing? More WR1/2 numbers? I'll take that all day.

[Vcize]

The best offense of the last decade also had Rob Gronkowski. The balance of a big play TE in Gronkowski and a "high" percentage route runner in Edelman is big. Miami doesn't have that balance, so they only get the yin and not the yang. Unfortunately, the yang is a much more dependable aspect than the yin.

Why are you operating under the assumption that the team that signs Landry won't have a TE or any other WRs on the roster? You're kind of making our whole point here. NEs slot receivers are more efficient because they have a guy like Gronkowski out there, so Landry's efficiency should go up if he moves out of dreadful Miami and is still used heavily, which is a reasonable assumption if someone is willing to pay him the kind of money he will command.

Besides, it's not like NE wasn't already running a high volume slot receiver named Wes Welker before Gronk even got there. Not to mention you seem to have completely forgotten that Gronk has missed significant time over the years including almost the majority of last season and the Patriots won the Super Bowl with a heavily targeted slot receiver leading the way.

Avg. Yards at the Catch - 2017

A.J. Green - 10.84
Jarvis Landry - 4.18

Green is not the problem. He's the only thing holding their offense up from being a weekly fantasy streamer for DST's.

Right, the point being that an offense being poor because of poor QB play behind poor line play doesn't mean that targeting the lead WR for that offense is a bad idea. Miami's offense being bad isn't any more proof that their offensive philosophy or targeting Landry is poor than the Bengal's offense being bad is proof that targeting Green is a bad idea.

I'm not saying that an offense can't be useful with Landry being a significant weapon. But an offense can't be successful with Landry as the significant weapon, unless he becomes more of a big play receiver.

Tell that to the defending Super Bowl Champs.

Besides that, there's no saying that he has to be the significant weapon to get good volume, nor fantasy production if that volume is more efficient. You're arguing against yourself in some ways here. NE slot receivers are only good fantasy options because they have another strong target on the team, but Landry can't be a good fantasy option out of the slot if he has another strong target on the team.

Throwing underneath to slot receivers at extreme volume is not the best way to primarily move the ball.

That's like, your opinion man.

And I mean that seriously. You've presented nothing to back that up other than because you say so. And worse, you're presenting that lack evidence against one of the best coaches in NFL history who believes it IS a great way to move the ball and who just won a Super Bowl doing it.

Edelman was 3rd in the NFL in targets last year with 169. The next closest player on NE was a running back with 86.

[sugbear65]

Does it really matter that he's not catching deep balls if he's going to catch 100+ short ones annually? He doesn't need to be AJ Green or Julio Jones, what's wrong with being Jarvis Landry? In the last few years, in PPR, he has been the overall 2015-WR7, 2016-WR14, and currently WR7. At the end of the day, short passes, long passes, who cares? The points count either way.

[Cameron Giles]

How is more of the same a bad thing? More WR1/2 numbers? I'll take that all day.

With less volume, it's a bad thing. It's not hard to figure out.

[Cameron Giles]

Why are you operating under the assumption that the team that signs Landry won't have a TE or any other WRs on the roster? You're kind of making our whole point here. NEs slot receivers are more efficient because they have a guy like Gronkowski out there, so Landry's efficiency should go up if he moves out of dreadful Miami and is still used heavily, which is a reasonable assumption if someone is willing to pay him the kind of money he will command.

Besides, it's not like NE wasn't already running a high volume slot receiver named Wes Welker before Gronk even got there. Not to mention you seem to have completely forgotten that Gronk has missed significant time over the years including almost the majority of last season and the Patriots won the Super Bowl with a heavily targeted slot receiver leading the way.

If a team has more weapons than Miami has in the receiving game, then it will be great for Landry. He'll become a more efficient player and likely lead to a better team. But, he will probably lose volume and not be as productive in fantasy.

Right, the point being that an offense being poor because of poor QB play behind poor line play doesn't mean that targeting the lead WR for that offense is a bad idea. Miami's offense being bad isn't any more proof that their offensive philosophy or targeting Landry is poor than the Bengal's offense being bad is proof that targeting Green is a bad idea.

Using Landry isn't a bad idea. But targeting your slot receiver on short routes 170 times a season isn't moving the needle. Their offense is built around Landry and doesn't set up anything with it. New England can use Edelman's routes to set up big plays. Also, Edelman's routes are not as short as Landry's.

That's like, your opinion man.

And I mean that seriously. You've presented nothing to back that up other than because you say so. And worse, you're presenting that lack evidence against one of the best coaches in NFL history who believes it IS a great way to move the ball and who just won a Super Bowl doing it.

Edelman was 3rd in the NFL in targets last year with 169. The next closest player on NE was a running back with 86.

I'm giving you an opinion backed up rationally by stats. What are you doing? I think Landry is a good football player. He's one of the top slot receivers in the league. However, he is ideally not the go-to receiver. Miami's offense would be better if Landry's routes set up something more down field, but Landry's routes set up...Landry's routes.

In New England, they use Edelman's (6.13 yards at catch) game to set up bigger plays downfield. Sure, Gronk was hurt last season, but when he didn't play Chris Hogan (11.34 yards at catch) was essentially the WR that filled the role. Hogan plays each level of the field, and we've seen that this season with Edelman as the one out this time. New England attacks you at so many parts of the field, that it's ridiculously hard to defend.

It's not Landry's fault that Miami doesn't have a comparable offense. However, we have only seen Landry used as an underneath, high percentage route runner through his four seasons. These plays inflate completion percentage, but do a poor job of moving the ball down field through the air. If it takes 170+ targets to get a receiver to 800 yards, it's not good. A team who wants to duplicate Miami's receiving game is not smart. It will only benefit Landry.

[Cameron Giles]

Does it really matter that he's not catching deep balls if he's going to catch 100+ short ones annually? He doesn't need to be AJ Green or Julio Jones, what's wrong with being Jarvis Landry? In the last few years, in PPR, he has been the overall 2015-WR7, 2016-WR14, and currently WR7. At the end of the day, short passes, long passes, who cares? The points count either way.

Pace:

Landry: 171 targets, 108 receptions, 839 yards, 9 touchdowns
Player B: 60 targets, 37 receptions, 661 yards, 7 touchdowns

Would you not find it even slightly concerning that it takes Landry almost 3x the targets to get merely 178 more yards than Player B? I'm asking: If the extreme volume goes away, then what do you have?

[Tsunami]

I buy the "if the volume goes away" argument for a player like Robby Anderson but after 3 straight years of WR1 production I don't see any reason why the volume would go away for Landry. The stats he has produced the past 3-4 years will get him a large contract, and any team who pays him is going to use him. And frankly considering he has been on teams with Tannehill and Cutler, 2018 is likely to be an improvement on his already underrated fantasy production.

[Coogan Football]

And for that very reason Miami is one of the worst offenses in the league. The defense already knows those 6 bubble screens per game are coming.

Miami (and Adam Gase) need to grow some balls and try to get aggressive with their play calling

[Vcize]

I'm giving you an opinion backed up rationally by stats.

Giving evidence of something is not necessarily giving evidence of your argument. Your "evidence" that heavy use of a slot receiver does not make for a proficient offense is that Landry's routes are near the line of scrimmage. That's not evidence of anything other than evidence that Landry's routes are near the line of scrimmage. You're saying "this suspension bridge can't bear the weight of that many cars, and as proof here is evidence that a tomato is actually a fruit and not a vegetable".

Even if we were to extend that and say that Landry has not been efficient with his targets this year, that's still not evidence of its affect on an offense. Is Landry inefficient this year because he suddenly lost a step and forgot how to play football at age 24, or is he inefficient because the team is a mess with a terrible QB and a league worst offense line backed up by a nearly league worst running game?

DeAndre Hopkins was inefficient last year and the Texans stunk. But did the Texans stink because Hopkins was inefficient or was Hopkins inefficient because the Texans stunk? I think we're seeing that it was far more the latter than the former. And saying that a slot heavy offense can't succeed because Landry has been inefficient this year is no different than saying an offense can't succeed when featuring a prototype WR1 stud with great pedigree and hands of glue because Hopkins was inefficient last year on a bad Texans team.

What are you doing?

Well I was providing you evidence that a slot heavy team can be successful by, you know, showing you a slot heavy team that was successful. The Pats have run through the slot for the better part of a decade now and last year, in their most slot heavy year ever, they won the Super Bowl.

I think Landry is a good football player. He's one of the top slot receivers in the league. However, he is ideally not the go-to receiver. Miami's offense would be better if Landry's routes set up something more down field, but Landry's routes set up...Landry's routes.

In New England, they use Edelman's (6.13 yards at catch) game to set up bigger plays downfield. Sure, Gronk was hurt last season, but when he didn't play Chris Hogan (11.34 yards at catch) was essentially the WR that filled the role. Hogan plays each level of the field, and we've seen that this season with Edelman as the one out this time. New England attacks you at so many parts of the field, that it's ridiculously hard to defend.

It's not Landry's fault that Miami doesn't have a comparable offense. However, we have only seen Landry used as an underneath, high percentage route runner through his four seasons. These plays inflate completion percentage, but do a poor job of moving the ball down field through the air. If it takes 170+ targets to get a receiver to 800 yards, it's not good. A team who wants to duplicate Miami's receiving game is not smart. It will only benefit Landry.

This whole thing is a big semantic circle. Why does Landry have to be the go-to receiver to get a lot of targets? And if he is the go-to receiver (as Edelman clearly was last year), why can't it be on a team that wants to use that to open up a downfield threat.

You're acting like teams in free agency are sitting here thinking "OK now what we want to do here to replicate that awesome Miami offense is grab Landry so we can give him a zillion targets, then we'll bring a QB out of the broadcast booth who wasn't even any good back when he was trying to start with us, we'll set him up behind the worst offensive line in the league, and make sure we have a useless running game to boot. That's the recipe for success".

Why can't a team be looking to sign a stud slot player AND have/get someone to be a downfield threat that benefits from that?

I mean think about what you're saying here. On the one hand you say you can't have a slot WR getting 170 targets and be a proficient offense and then on the other you're saying well that team was only extremely proficient while targeting their slot WR 170 times because.....

It doesn't matter what the because is, in getting to that point you are admitting that it works. And when the because is "because they have Chris Hogan" it's not like that's some uncanny barometer.