Keenan for Juju + 2021 1st

[PR0v3]

This is a snap accept right? Especially since I’m aiming for next season.

The only thing that concerns me is that I already own the 2020 1st and 2nd of this trade partner, and this could bump those picks from mid-late to very late.

His starters:
Dak or Wilson (1QB)
CMC and Carson
Mike Thomas and JuJu
Waller
Hyde or C.Thompson or R. Freeman in the flex (1)

He is 2-2 and looking at a wildcard playoff birth.

[Gator Sens]

I would take JuJu and the 1st long term. He is the cheapest that he might be for a very long time. Time to buy if you are trying to.

[hoos89]

If you're not aiming to win this season then I think it's an accept.

[Slackalacker]

Juju >= KA

Free first, do it!

[lukkynumber13]

Juju >= KA

Free first, do it!

This is simply poor advice. The first is absolutely not free here.

Keenan Allen has been a perennial top WR for the past 5 years and is still only 27.

I agree that if OP isn’t contending this year, then JuJu and the first is definitely the right way.

[hoos89]

Juju >= KA

Free first, do it!

I think KA > JuJu personally, particularly for a contender. However, since OP is aiming for next season I think this is a take.

[Goddard]

Regardless of who's better between Keenan and Juju, the gap isn't a 1st.

[hoos89]

Regardless of who's better between Keenan and Juju, the gap isn't a 1st.

Two players trending hard in the opposite direction, and I don't think it's fair to call a 2021 first "a 1st". That pick has to be discounted for being 2 years out.

[Goddard]

Regardless of who's better between Keenan and Juju, the gap isn't a 1st.

Two players trending hard in the opposite direction, and I don't think it's fair to call a 2021 first "a 1st". That pick has to be discounted for being 2 years out.

I mean, it's still a first. Would you sell your 2021 1st for a 2020 2nd? I wouldn't.

[hoos89]

Regardless of who's better between Keenan and Juju, the gap isn't a 1st.

Two players trending hard in the opposite direction, and I don't think it's fair to call a 2021 first "a 1st". That pick has to be discounted for being 2 years out.

I mean, it's still a first. Would you sell your 2021 1st for a 2020 2nd? I wouldn't.

There's a large value gap between a 1st and a 2nd, though. Would I trade a random 2021 1st for a random 2020 2nd? No. Maybe if I felt the 2021 1st was from a good team and the 2020 2nd was going to be early I would consider it though.

A better question would be: would you trade a 2020 1st for a 2021 1st? Last year was a bit of a special case in that 2019 class was dumped on a 2020 class was hyped so people were willing to trade mid-late 2019 firsts for 2020 firsts, but all else being equal people generally (and rationally) demand a premium to trade back a class year. Of course the large gap in value between early and late firsts means that it can make sense to sell a late 2020 1st for a 2021 1st from a terrible team, but in any case the bottom line is that picks 2 years out are generally less valuable than picks 1 year out.

A 2021 1st should not be attributed "a first" value until next year.

[notweswelker]

I'd probably take JuJu straight up

[Goddard]

Two players trending hard in the opposite direction, and I don't think it's fair to call a 2021 first "a 1st". That pick has to be discounted for being 2 years out.

I mean, it's still a first. Would you sell your 2021 1st for a 2020 2nd? I wouldn't.

There's a large value gap between a 1st and a 2nd, though. Would I trade a random 2021 1st for a random 2020 2nd? No. Maybe if I felt the 2021 1st was from a good team and the 2020 2nd was going to be early I would consider it though.

A better question would be: would you trade a 2020 1st for a 2021 1st? Last year was a bit of a special case in that 2019 class was dumped on a 2020 class was hyped so people were willing to trade mid-late 2019 firsts for 2020 firsts, but all else being equal people generally (and rationally) demand a premium to trade back a class year. Of course the large gap in value between early and late firsts means that it can make sense to sell a late 2020 1st for a 2021 1st from a terrible team, but in any case the bottom line is that picks 2 years out are generally less valuable than picks 1 year out.

A 2021 1st should not be attributed "a first" value until next year.

So what's a 2021 1st worth then if it's not worth a 1st?

No, I wouldn't trade a 2020 1st for a 2021 1st unless the 2020 pick was late and the 2021 was early. But I do like the 21 class and think the value of that 1st will carry a lot of weight in a year. I also would easily trade an early 2020 2nd right now for a late 2021 1st. Only time I wouldn't make that trade is if I'm on the clock with that 2nd and there's a player who I think is worth more than a late 2021 1st. But right now, I'd trade any 2020 2nd for any 2021 1st pretty easily.

[hoos89]

There's a large gap between a 1st and a 2nd in which other combinations of picks can fit. Saying that a 2021 1st is not worth a first doesn't mean that you downgrade a full round (I did not say that 2021 1sts = 2020 2nd at any point).

2021 1st + 2021 2nd = 2020 1st maybe? Or 2021 1st = 2 2020 2nds? Something like that. Obviously a lot of this depends on factors such as projected pick placement (which is much more difficult 2 years out).

So you would say that it's Keenan for JuJu + two 2nds, or Keenan + 2nd for JuJu + 1st, not Keenan for JuJu and a 1st, to account for the fact that the pick is 2 years out. Because you just aren't getting "a first" value on top of JuJu. Now in this case it probably doesn't matter because the value is still good, but it can definitely change the way a close trade looks.

[M-Dub]

A 1st is a 1st. Suggesting that it’s anything less is just silly. It’s an asset that will continue to accrue value for the next year and a half without taking up a roster spot. How is that a bad thing?

[hoos89]

A 1st is a 1st. Suggesting that it’s anything less is just silly. It’s an asset that will continue to accrue value for the next year and a half without taking up a roster spot. How is that a bad thing?

Okay I'll sell you my 2025 1st for a 2020 1st. It will accrue value for 5 1/2 years without taking up a roster spot!

A 2021 first accrues value over time because it is currently discounted for being so far away. In other words: it's currently worth maybe 80% of a first. So yeah if you buy it for 80% of the value of a 1st (or whatever the appropriate discount rate is) then sure, you're accruing value in that way. But if you buy it at 100% of value of a 1st, you are just recouping a loss as time goes on not "accruing value".