Dak turns down 30M per year, wants 40M?? If true, time to let him walk

[Jason3123]

Dak basically has 1.5 seasons as a top 5 fantasy QB and half a season as a terrible one. He has already shown he has elite fantasy upside which is exactly what I look for in a fantasy QB since it's so easy in most leagues to get a middling low end QB1 if your upside guy flops.

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Best fantasy finish
Dak: QB6 (plus half a year as QB4 the following season)
Mariota: QB16
Winston: QB14

Best season YPA
Dak: 8.0
Mariota: 7.6
Winston: 7.6

Best season QB Rtg
Dak: 104.9
Winston: 92.2
Mariota: 88.6

Great post. Two quick notes. Dak doesn't have the draft capital those do, so it'll be held against him, like Cousins, and he doesn't have playoff success yet, so people will hold that against him because they're dumb.

[xlur8ed]

Dak basically has 1.5 seasons as a top 5 fantasy QB and half a season as a terrible one. He has already shown he has elite fantasy upside which is exactly what I look for in a fantasy QB since it's so easy in most leagues to get a middling low end QB1 if your upside guy flops.

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Best fantasy finish
Dak: QB6 (plus half a year as QB4 the following season)
Mariota: QB16
Winston: QB14

Best season YPA
Dak: 8.0
Mariota: 7.6
Winston: 7.6

Best season QB Rtg
Dak: 104.9
Winston: 92.2
Mariota: 88.6

Great post. Two quick notes. Dak doesn't have the draft capital those do, so it'll be held against him, like Cousins, and he doesn't have playoff success yet, so people will hold that against him because they're dumb.

Right, and for our hobby, neither really matter for fantasy value so that opinion gets skewed. I'm also a huge Cousins drum beater, and as a die hard Vikings fan, I couldn't tell you how many conversations I've had with casual fans about how exciting this is for the franchise, as well as his fantasy stock. #skol

[tresskid84]

In fairness to Jameis, his oline has been terrible over the past 3 years and Mariota's been playing in an offense that does not play to his strengths. I personally don't think either is better than Dak, but I won't say with certainty either is much worse or has less upside.

Dak is a good qb. I think Dak is great when kept clean and he is very accurate, which are great traits to have. In fact, he might be better than most in these areas. Put him behind the best oline of the decade and give him an elite rb, good to great wr, and a career year slot from a slot wr (which can probably be largely attributed to Dak), and he will produce GREAT numbers. However, in less than ideal circumstances, his play has consistently dropped off (and this dates back to college, not just the pros).

And thats not to say he is a bad qb (I think he is one of the top ten twelve qbs in the league). All qbs drop off in less than ideal circumstances, but his drop off has shown to be very large when under pressure, both in college and the pros. That is what gives me pause about his long term high-upside. He isn't likely to play behind an elite oline his entire career, and thus far, when teams are able to pressure him, his efficiency declines dramatically.

[tresskid84]

And just watching Dak with my own eyes, he was not nearly as good in 2017 as he was in 2016. You can laugh at the idea that he regressed, but he simply was not as good as his rookie year. Doesn't mean he won't return to 2016 form, but its a legit reason to have pause about how good he actually can be.

[Lotto4Life]

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Brady, Brees, and Manning all had similar early seasons to Winston and Mariota (though Mariota regressed in year 3) - even considering how the game has changed. They may or may not take a step forward from here, but the expectations were probably too high for those two in their first three seasons. Dak was dropped into a nearly ideal situation (and he executed).

[Goddard]

Maybe if he had some better weapons to throw to, he'd put up better passing numbers.

[Vcize]

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Brady, Brees, and Manning all had similar early seasons to Winston and Mariota (though Mariota regressed in year 3) - even considering how the game has changed. They may or may not take a step forward from here, but the expectations were probably too high for those two in their first three seasons. Dak was dropped into a nearly ideal situation (and he executed).

You can't really just gloss over the "considering how the game has changed" part. That makes a huge difference. It was a different era. Every QB that's better than dreadful has a start like that now. Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles had similar early seasons too. Heck Deshone Kizer and Blaine Gabbert had better statistical seasons than Brees did early on.

We also can't just gloss over that all of those guys made huge leaps that are far from the norm. This is all a bit like saying Kelvin Benjamin should be worth a lot because he had a better first 3 years than Antonio Brown.

[Lotto4Life]

I'll never understand why people (and the consensus even) prefer guys like Mariota/Winston to him who even at their best (despite having an extra year) were unusable in fantasy AND had worse efficiency numbers than a rookie Dak.

Brady, Brees, and Manning all had similar early seasons to Winston and Mariota (though Mariota regressed in year 3) - even considering how the game has changed. They may or may not take a step forward from here, but the expectations were probably too high for those two in their first three seasons. Dak was dropped into a nearly ideal situation (and he executed).

You can't really just gloss over the "considering how the game has changed" part. That makes a huge difference. It was a different era. Every QB that's better than dreadful has a start like that now. Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles had similar early seasons too. Heck Deshone Kizer and Blaine Gabbert had better statistical seasons than Brees did early on.

We also can't just gloss over that all of those guys made huge leaps that are far from the norm. This is all a bit like saying Kelvin Benjamin should be worth a lot because he had a better first 3 years than Antonio Brown.

I didn't gloss over it - I specifically called it out. Those guys made leaps in years 3+ that people are hoping Winston and Mariota can make as their environments improve.

[Phaded]

Maybe if he had some better weapons to throw to, he'd put up better passing numbers.

I feel like this gets overlooked - but some people treat Dez like he is anything close to he was 5 years ago, Witten is old and slow, the rest is meh.

If he had the same weapons as a guy like Winston I am sure he would do better.

Anyways, he was a mid-round development guy that was thrust into a starting role due to injuries. Dak is still developing and I believe the best is yet to come.

One of the things I remember from an interview in his rookie year is how hard he is on himself for turnovers. They happen. Once he overcomes that, I am sure he will take more chances.

[xlur8ed]

One of the things I remember from an interview in his rookie year is how hard he is on himself for turnovers. They happen. Once he overcomes that, I am sure he will take more chances.

This is gold.

[gmoftheyear]

Dak will be fine in the long run. He had a little sophmore slump like alot of QBs do. He struggled without his left tackle and without Zeke. They say he doesn't throw deep consistently. As a Cowboy fan I can tell you, Dez is there best receiver and they refuse to throw the deep ball to him for whatever reason. They throw slants, in routes, and alot of fades inside the red zone but very few deep shots. The only receiver who mad big plays deep was Brice Butler and that was sparingly. Cowboys need to take more shots downfield whether with Dez or someone else. I think Dak will be fine especially if his line stays healthy and Zeke continues to pound the rock. Just a down year. Dak is still on the upswing I believe.

[Cowboysfan33]

Dak will be fine in the long run. He had a little sophmore slump like alot of QBs do. He struggled without his left tackle and without Zeke. They say he doesn't throw deep consistently. As a Cowboy fan I can tell you, Dez is there best receiver and they refuse to throw the deep ball to him for whatever reason. They throw slants, in routes, and alot of fades inside the red zone but very few deep shots. The only receiver who mad big plays deep was Brice Butler and that was sparingly. Cowboys need to take more shots downfield whether with Dez or someone else. I think Dak will be fine especially if his line stays healthy and Zeke continues to pound the rock. Just a down year. Dak is still on the upswing I believe.

That’s why I think there’s a decent chance that we take DJ Moore at #19. They had him in for a pre-draft visit, I think teams get 30 of those, not counting the in-state players but the Cowboys have drafted several of their pre-draft visitors the last several drafts. He would make sense to me, help take the top off the defense, which should help take pressure off of Dez plus help open up underneath routes too. I’m still predicting that they will go defense in the first round but if Moore is on the board, I could definitely understand the pick.

[gmoftheyear]

Dak will be fine in the long run. He had a little sophmore slump like alot of QBs do. He struggled without his left tackle and without Zeke. They say he doesn't throw deep consistently. As a Cowboy fan I can tell you, Dez is there best receiver and they refuse to throw the deep ball to him for whatever reason. They throw slants, in routes, and alot of fades inside the red zone but very few deep shots. The only receiver who mad big plays deep was Brice Butler and that was sparingly. Cowboys need to take more shots downfield whether with Dez or someone else. I think Dak will be fine especially if his line stays healthy and Zeke continues to pound the rock. Just a down year. Dak is still on the upswing I believe.

That’s why I think there’s a decent chance that we take DJ Moore at #19. They had him in for a pre-draft visit, I think teams get 30 of those, not counting the in-state players but the Cowboys have drafted several of their pre-draft visitors the last several drafts. He would make sense to me, help take the top off the defense, which should help take pressure off of Dez plus help open up underneath routes too. I’m still predicting that they will go defense in the first round but if Moore is on the board, I could definitely understand the pick.

I really hope for linebacker or an offensive lineman with the 1st pick at this point. They neglected drafting lineman last year and I felt it would bite them in the butt and it did. As good as the o-line has been over the years, they had been relatively healthy those years and not drafting lineman last year put them behind the 8-ball as the backups (Chaz Green especially) was not good and really hurt the offense.

[Cowboysfan33]

Dak will be fine in the long run. He had a little sophmore slump like alot of QBs do. He struggled without his left tackle and without Zeke. They say he doesn't throw deep consistently. As a Cowboy fan I can tell you, Dez is there best receiver and they refuse to throw the deep ball to him for whatever reason. They throw slants, in routes, and alot of fades inside the red zone but very few deep shots. The only receiver who mad big plays deep was Brice Butler and that was sparingly. Cowboys need to take more shots downfield whether with Dez or someone else. I think Dak will be fine especially if his line stays healthy and Zeke continues to pound the rock. Just a down year. Dak is still on the upswing I believe.

That’s why I think there’s a decent chance that we take DJ Moore at #19. They had him in for a pre-draft visit, I think teams get 30 of those, not counting the in-state players but the Cowboys have drafted several of their pre-draft visitors the last several drafts. He would make sense to me, help take the top off the defense, which should help take pressure off of Dez plus help open up underneath routes too. I’m still predicting that they will go defense in the first round but if Moore is on the board, I could definitely understand the pick.

I really hope for linebacker or an offensive lineman with the 1st pick at this point. They neglected drafting lineman last year and I felt it would bite them in the butt and it did. As good as the o-line has been over the years, they had been relatively healthy those years and not drafting lineman last year put them behind the 8-ball as the backups (Chaz Green especially) was not good and really hurt the offense.

I know it’s just a one year deal, but signing Cameron Fleming to compete for the RT or at worst, be the swing Tackle, I thought that was an under-rated signing so that gives them some flexibility in the draft. They could trade back a little if one of their “guys” isn’t on the board and take Guard- Will Hernandez which would definitely be a safe pick. I think if Roquan Smith is there, if he slides which some are saying he might, I think they will take him and that would fit what they need because every time Lee is out and we know how much he’s been out over the years, the defense struggles, I don’t think they could trust Jaylon Smith yet, he at least made it through the entire season but no one knows if he’ll ever be back to his college pre-injury days.

[gmoftheyear]

Agree with your take on Sean Lee and Jaylon Smith. that's why I think Linebacker is a huge need right now plus losing Hitchens and Wilbur.