2019 vs 2020 pick values

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Johnny Canuck
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Re: 2019 vs 2020 pick values

Postby Johnny Canuck » Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:44 am

Yes some guys will hit, but good luck with your guestimation.

The predictability of this class is the problem, and it's a problem because there are no A students. Excluding Kyler and a few TEs, this is a class of B students. There are more B students than average, making it deep, but there are no A students.

After digging into the 2020 class a bit over the past couple weeks, I think there are 4 A students in the 2020 class...

1. Jerry Jeudy
2. Jonathan Taylor
3. D'Andre Swift
4. Travis Etienne

Therefore, if you combined the 2019 & 2020 classes, the highest a 2019 draft eligible player could be taken is the 1.05 pick. BUT a 2019 player being selected even at the 1.05 is a question mark.

Najee Harris, JK Dobbins, Laviska Shenault Jr, Ceedee Lamb, and/or Tee Higgins are all in a similar tier as: D.K. Metcalf, Josh Jacobs, Hakeem Butler, Miles Sanders, N'Keal Harry, and/or A.J. Brown.

So the 1.01 this yr is worth about the 1.05 next yr (imo), but I agree that the draft is deep.

Potentially getting players like: Isabella, Sternberger, Smith jr, Boykin, Gaskin, Barnes, Deebo, JJAW, P. Campbell, Mattison, etc. in the late 2nd - 3rd rounds is very interesting.

All in all, I value 2020 1sts much more than 2019 1sts, but I would look to buy a bunch of late 2nds/early 3rds in 2019.

If you can catch someone with the fever, I'd sell your 2019 1sts for a 2020 1st & 2019 3rd. The player you get in the early 3rd isn't that far off the one taken in the 1st (difference between a B and C+ student imo).
Half pt ppr dynasty - start 1QB, 3WR, 2RB, 1TE, 1Flex

QB: Luck, Dalton
RB: Fournette, D. Freeman, Ingram, Kerryon, McCoy, Crowell, Ajayi, DMart
WR: AJG, TY Hilton, Adams, Josh Gordon, Kirk, Moncrief, Hamilton
TE: Olsen, Graham
2018: 3.01
2019: 1, 1, 1, 2, 3

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Re: 2019 vs 2020 pick values

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Apr 16, 2019 10:50 am

Not sure how good Taylor really is. It that same old wide open Wisconsin running lane thing. He looks good, but I don't know that he's on Swift/Etienne's level.

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Vcize
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Re: 2019 vs 2020 pick values

Postby Vcize » Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:36 am

Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:24 am
Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:08 am
What is a bit ironic though is just how many WR’s tested better than D. Adams as an example or even Hopkins for that matter.

Didn’t Haskins break most of Drew Brees conference records?

Just saying it is way too early to claim this class sucks.

The lens of NFL production simply isn’t known for this class.

No doubt opinions vary but it’s time that will determine the strength or weakness of this class.

I tend to agree on RB’s but think 3 or 4 could be RB1’s in fantasy but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus Zeke or Barkley.
It's not just about athletic testing. It's about production. Davante Adams was a historic elite producer. Hopkins also had an elite breakout age and strong production. Aside from Harry, we don't have many of those types of players in this class. We have a size-freak in Butler, a size-speed freak in DK, a small-speed freak in Brown. Actually we assume Brown is a speed freak, we have no testing on him. Hall never broke out, Boykin never produced, Isabella has been a mass producer on a lesser school but at least has crazy athletic testing. He would normally be a day 3 pick but this class is so bad he'll probably be overdrafted. Parris Campbell is a track star but also never broke out. This class will disappoint fantasy owners.
You're forgetting AJ Brown here, who is another one of those guys and has good measurables to boot.
Team 1 (12 team standard, q/r/r/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Brees, Dak
RB: Bell, D Johnson, Fournette, Penny, Lynch, Conner, Foreman
WR: Brown, Diggs, Dez, Lockett
TE: Gronk, Graham
K: Tucker
Def: Jags, Texans

Team 2 (12 team PPR, q/r/r/w/w/w/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wilson, Dak
RB: Fournette, Kamara, Michel, Kerryon, Blount
WR: Beckham, Thielen, Enunwa, M Williams, Beasely, Amendola
TE: Eifert, Hooper, Gesicki

Team 3 (12 Team PPR TE Premium, q/r/r/w/w/f/f/t/k/d)
QB: Wentz, Luck
RB: Hunt, Cook, Kerryon, Lewis, Foreman, Ajayi, Ito, Ballage
WR: OBJ, Cooks, Woods, ARob, Lockett, Pettis, Tyrell
TE: Howard

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Jason3123
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Re: 2019 vs 2020 pick values

Postby Jason3123 » Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:18 am

Vcize wrote:
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:36 am
Jason3123 wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:24 am
Ice wrote:
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:08 am
What is a bit ironic though is just how many WR’s tested better than D. Adams as an example or even Hopkins for that matter.

Didn’t Haskins break most of Drew Brees conference records?

Just saying it is way too early to claim this class sucks.

The lens of NFL production simply isn’t known for this class.

No doubt opinions vary but it’s time that will determine the strength or weakness of this class.

I tend to agree on RB’s but think 3 or 4 could be RB1’s in fantasy but there doesn’t seem to be a consensus Zeke or Barkley.
It's not just about athletic testing. It's about production. Davante Adams was a historic elite producer. Hopkins also had an elite breakout age and strong production. Aside from Harry, we don't have many of those types of players in this class. We have a size-freak in Butler, a size-speed freak in DK, a small-speed freak in Brown. Actually we assume Brown is a speed freak, we have no testing on him. Hall never broke out, Boykin never produced, Isabella has been a mass producer on a lesser school but at least has crazy athletic testing. He would normally be a day 3 pick but this class is so bad he'll probably be overdrafted. Parris Campbell is a track star but also never broke out. This class will disappoint fantasy owners.
You're forgetting AJ Brown here, who is another one of those guys and has good measurables to boot.
I didn't forget him, I just didn't list him, as he is a very solid prospect, although not an elite one. Remember, most rookie classes only provide a small handful of fantasy assets. The majority of these players will be busts or lag around the league for a little while. Only a few will actually be contributors, and a smaller amount will actually contribute for multiple seasons. I would guess this class gives us 5-8 hits. 3 of which will belong to the TE/QB position. So probably 2-4 WR's and 2-3 RB's.


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