Antonio Brown - Alive & Well in TB?

[Chris_R]

When Andre Johnson was 32 he had 109/1400/5, following year as a 33 year old he had 85/936. When Steve Smith was 35 he posted 79/1065/6. Neither guy had an elite QB either. Brown is going into his 29 year old season and he's one of the best receivers of all time, I think he has 4-5 elite seasons left of over 1200 yards. Don't bet against 1st ballot hall of famers flaming out early, and that's exactly what AB is.

That said now isn't a bad time to sell high on his value and maximize it in offers. I packaged him with Kenneth Dixon a d a 3rd earlier this summer for OBJ. Happened about a month before Dixon was injured so I felt bad about that. So I wasn't ready to move AB just for a bunch of picks or fliers, only another stud who was younger. Otherwise I'd take the last 4 elite years of a top 3 WR and have a chance to win all those 4 years vs chasing some potential.

[Tsunami]

Thanks for all the feedback, guys. I'm in a league where you sign players to contracts, and we've got our startup coming up... I've been wondering if Antonio was a good candidate for a four year deal, since we can only offer one (we can offer 2 three-year deals). Obviously I'd rather get OBJ or Evans if we're talking about locking them up for as long as possible, but I'd still like to get AB for one of my three year deals or the four year deal.

I don't know the details of your league but a common mistake in salary cap leagues is to sign your best player to a long contract. If you got him in an auction then ask yourself whether he will be worth more next year? If you cut him at the end of the season would you be able to bid for him again? Perhaps this doesn't apply to your league but I thought I should mention it.

[Valhalla]

Thanks for all the feedback, guys. I'm in a league where you sign players to contracts, and we've got our startup coming up... I've been wondering if Antonio was a good candidate for a four year deal, since we can only offer one (we can offer 2 three-year deals). Obviously I'd rather get OBJ or Evans if we're talking about locking them up for as long as possible, but I'd still like to get AB for one of my three year deals or the four year deal.

I don't know the details of your league but a common mistake in salary cap leagues is to sign your best player to a long contract. If you got him in an auction then ask yourself whether he will be worth more next year? If you cut him at the end of the season would you be able to bid for him again? Perhaps this doesn't apply to your league but I thought I should mention it.

Good advice.

[ninotoreS]

When Andre Johnson was 32 he had 109/1400/5, following year as a 33 year old he had 85/936. When Steve Smith was 35 he posted 79/1065/6. Neither guy had an elite QB either. Brown is going into his 29 year old season and he's one of the best receivers of all time, I think he has 4-5 elite seasons left of over 1200 yards. Don't bet against 1st ballot hall of famers flaming out early, and that's exactly what AB is.

Your own examples there argue against your degree of optimism. Andre at 32 was an elite WR1, then Andre at 33 was suddenly a WR3 which effectively wrecked many starting fantasy line-ups that were relying on getting more from him than that. SSS's 35 season was WR2 tier. And Brown is about to lose his elite QB; Roethlisberger seems to be serious about retiring next year.

It's not a rational bet Brown can have five more seasons of 1200+ yards. Possible? Sure. But it would require a lot of luck. It usually only takes one significant injury or a string of moderate injuries for these players after the age 30 mark to accelerate their path toward retirement, because at that age our bodies start healing more slowly and less effectively, and these guys can't recover fast enough, or back to their prior strength.

[WhatWouldDitkaDo]

Madden curse is coming for him

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianmaziq ... f9a62c5cab

[kamihamster]

hasn't the curse been broken?

[Friction]

I saw the headline earlier and knew there would be a thread on this. It has already been broken a couple times I believe, though I am semi-superstitious.

[Gtdano_14]

[Typhus]

So the real question pending.....
If you own Antonio Brown, who would you shop him for right now?
I know the OPs statement to sale was in gest,, but seriously I have been giving the idea some consideration, and that has nothing to do with Madden covers, but more to do with him being 30. Still relatively young, but I could get a top 3 to 5 RB probably in exchange maybe.
Thoughts?

[kamihamster]

I'd target something along the lines of a good RB... Hunt, Cook, Fournette... and a high upside WR like Davis, DJ Moore, Diggs... you get younger and the RB provides some baseline of production in return and the WR could replace ABs production if they hit.

[GhostOfCap]

I mean. if you play dynasty football like you buy/sell on the stock market - then absolutely. His ADP is 1.08 right now. He's not going to being going higher in drafts as a 31 year old WR in 2019 than he was as a 30 year old WR in 2018.

[Phaded]

My biggest problem with the prospect of selling AB is that his skillset should last him pretty well into his mid 30s. He is not a big fast guy that relies on speed and size. He is a true techinian.

Barring a crazy overpay, I would not move him. However, I have him as the #1 overall asset still.

[skip]

If you're basing any decisions with players because they were on the cover of Madden, you're playing this game wrong. For that matter, if you believe in curses at all then you need something else entirely...

[thebeast]

My biggest problem with the prospect of selling AB is that his skillset should last him pretty well into his mid 30s. He is not a big fast guy that relies on speed and size. He is a true techinian.

Barring a crazy overpay, I would not move him. However, I have him as the #1 overall asset still.

Sorry, I don't believe you would actually take him 1.01 in a startup when it comes down to it.

[hockeyBjj]

hasn't the curse been broken?

No. Brady dropped the ball



Give me 1 other reason a ball that easy to grab bounces off his fingers

Madden Curse. Only explanation