Mark Ingram

[kris_kapsner]

We've discussed him a bit already. But, that was in a thread discussing his "bust" potential.

He just had his pro day yesterday and improved his 40 time. He's at a 4.55 now. And that's about what I had him pegged as when I watched his film. I was a little surprised that he ran in the low 4.6's at the combine. It may not seem like a lot, but 1st round drafted RBs are supposed to run in the 4.5's or faster. So, this is a huge boost to him I think. And, even more importantly, his first 10 yards is absolutely elite.

I personally think he's going to be a steady low end stud in the NFL for many years. Staple him into the top 10 for 2012 and beyond. I don't see him being dynamic enough to become a top 5 guy. But, I don't think it's crazy to think he'll be a top 10 RB for the long run. I don't think he should be drafted top 10 right away. But that's the upside I see and I see a very high floor for him.

What do you guys think?

[skip]

Agreed. I also think he is the safest, "can't miss", option in this draft. I know there is a lot of love here for A.J.Green, but I prefer Ingram.

[dlf_ericd]

Not to dismiss anything that's been said, but what would happen to Ingram's stock if he was drafted by New England, for example?

[hosler427]

Not to dismiss anything that's been said, but what would happen to Ingram's stock if he was drafted by New England, for example?

Coach hoodie proved with Corey Dillon that he doesn't mind riding a good feature back. I think a similar situation would be likely.

I think too much is being read into a forty time. Honestly I don't care if he ran a 4.55. When I watch him I see plenty of elite traits that we have discussed (balance, vision, tackle breaking, strength, quickness) the timed 40 is not important IMO. I do agree with the thought he should be a top 10 RB in fantasy for a long time and is a very safe pick regardless of the uniform he ends up in.

[Team Canada]

Not to dismiss anything that's been said, but what would happen to Ingram's stock if he was drafted by New England, for example?

He will be getting a lot of carries and most likely be a feature back. i like him to do well in almost anywhere. Prob will put poor Green-ellis and maybe woodhead out of business.

[MR ROURKE]

I wouldn't put him in the catagory of producing in the top 10 of FF backs. He's a good prospect, but I personally don't see top 10 NFL talent. I suppose where he lands could help him produce numbers over what I see in his talent level with maybe the Dolphins.

[hosler427]

I wouldn't put him in the catagory of producing in the top 10 of FF backs. He's a good prospect, but I personally don't see top 10 NFL talent. I suppose where he lands could help him produce numbers over what I see in his talent level with maybe the Dolphins.

The Dolphins couldn't run block last year...they need to fix that before they invest a 1st rounder in Ingram IMO.

[Risky bidness]

He's the best back in the draft but I hear he might not go in the first rd. Miami for example has a lot of holes to fill besides RB and Rb's seem to be producing wherever they're taken as of late. With that being said, NFL teams may think they can get good/great production later in the draft.

[seahawks506]

No... he's not making out of the 1st round.

[Misfit74]

I'm not knocking Ingram at all - he looks like a heck of a player.

First of all, Pro Day 40-times are typically .10 faster than the Combine. Almost every athlete runs better at their Pro-Days. The surfaces are different, the environment typically more friendly.

And, while NFL Network showed a nice bit of film-making handing Ingram the best 10-yard split time there are reputable sites that disagree with the fancy multi-player 40-run with Ingram leading said 10-yard split. Numbers like this can be somewhat subjective - one man's stopwatch may be different than another's, etc. Here are the numbers from CBS Sportline. I'm not just pulling some site out of my a$$, either. This is IMO a reputable source for this type of information. NFL.com doesn't post all the numbers (that I know of) in terms of what may be stamped NFL-approved or 'official'.

10-Yard Split

1 Mario Fannin ~~~~ 1.51
2 Roy Helu ~~~~ 1.51
3 Derrick Locke ~~~~ 1.52
4 DeMarco Murray ~~~~ 1.52
5 Kendall Hunter ~~~~ 1.52
6 Anthony Allen ~~~~ 1.53
7 Jordan Todman ~~~~ 1.53
8 Ryan Williams ~~~~ 1.53
9 Mikel LeShoure ~~~~ 1.53
10 Delone Carter ~~~~ 1.54
11 Darren Evans ~~~~ 1.55
12 Brandon Saine ~~~~ 1.55
13 Da'Rel Scott ~~~~ 1.55
14 Mark Ingram ~~~~ 1.55
15 Dion Lewis ~~~~ 1.56
16 Alex Green ~~~~ 1.56
17 Shane Vereen ~~~~ 1.56
18 Graig Cooper ~~~~ 1.58
19 Jacquizz Rodgers ~~~~ 1.58
20 Jamie Harper ~~~~ 1.58

It seems like Ingram has been shown in some very special light at nearly every turn. A guy runs fast and they say "what blazing speed!" "boy that's going to help his draft stock!" about one guy and then Ingram runs a crap 40 and they say "I'm not worried about his slow time". Here, lets show a cut up of him winning the first 10-yards of the race against 3 faster players! He's going to be a SUPERSTAR!

I don't buy it.

Win the Heisman, National Title and I guess you get MJ-treatment. So be it. But let's be real about it. Ingram is not the fastest, burstiest, sure-thing in the world. He tested okay across the board. Slow for a first-round RB (like Kris said).

What does all this mean? To me it means I have to watch him run and decide for myself. Too much hyperbole around Ingram. I also have to look at the numbers. His faster Pro Day time is nice. If he makes it as an elite NFL running back it won't be because of how fast he is. He's not fast for starting NFL RB. It may be because of his burst - I'm not sure yet.

Look at the CBS's first 10 RBs in 08 and 09 drafts:

2008

Darren McFadden ~~ 1.50
Rashard Mendenhall ~~ 1.53
Jonathan Stewart ~~ 1.46
Chris Johnson ~~~ 1.40
Felix Jones ~~~ 1.46
Jamaal Charles ~~ 1.46
Ray Rice ~~~~ 1.47
Matt Forte' ~~~ 1.49
Kevin Smith ~~~~ 1.56
Tashard Choice ~~ 1.50


2009

Chris Wells 1.50
Knowshon Moreno 1.53
Donald Brown 1.50
LeSean McCoy --
Andre Brown 1.47
Shonn Greene 1.55
Rashad Jennings 1.53
Cedric Peerman 1.40
Javon Ringer 1.53
Glen Coffee 1.53

2010

C.J. Spiller ~~~ 1.48
Ryan Mathews ~~ 1.49
Jahvid Best ~~~ 1.48
Toby Gerhart ~~~ 1.55
Montario Hardesty ~~ 1.51
Jonathan Dwyer ~~ 1.60
Ben Tate ~~~~ 1.49
Anthony Dixon ~~~ 1.58
Joe McKnight ~~~ 1.53
Lonyae Miller ~~~ 1.55

So where is this elite burst? I love watching Ingram run. I think his vision, determination, and balance are valuable assets to his game. I think he probably will be a successful starting NFL RB. BUT, the numbers if looked at accurately and with some perspective hardly point that way. He'll have to be just that much better at other aspects of his game to excel. He doesn't have the long speed of McFadden or CJ424. He doesn't have the burst of most of the first 10 RBs in the past several drafts - at least not 'timed burst'.

My point? Nobody is a slam dunk. Ingram has had so much hype it's borderline ridiculous. He does strike me as a real player watching game-film, highlights, etc. Good thing, too, because just looking at his numbers he would not be in my top-5. Ingram doesn't have everything you want in a prospect when it comes to measurables but he can ball. Let's refrain from inducting him into the Hall of Fame before he plays an NFL down, shall we?

[MR ROURKE]

Ingram has had so much hype it's borderline ridiculous.

Looks like someone else isn't drinking the coolaide, but I think the hype is beyond ridiculous at this point.
On offense, there are two elite talents in this draft to me that have a chance to be top 10 players at their position and neither of them are a RB. I don't see a ton of seperation between the top several RB's because none of them look like elite top 10 talent in the NFL.

[hosler427]

Most of the people that are "hyping" him were doing so before the combine as well. I don't care about what a stopwatch says he does in his underwear...I like him as a player, not a sprinter.

[skip]

Ingram has had so much hype it's borderline ridiculous.

I don't see Ingram being hyped nearly to the level of Green or Jones... Most people seem to be trying to find ways to discredit him.

[Madtoker]

Ingram has had so much hype it's borderline ridiculous.

I don't see Ingram being hyped nearly to the level of Green or Jones... Most people seem to be trying to find ways to discredit him.

[Misfit74]

Ingram has had so much hype it's borderline ridiculous.

I don't see Ingram being hyped nearly to the level of Green or Jones... Most people seem to be trying to find ways to discredit him.

Ingram's numbers lend discredit to him just fine. I'm trying to get past his numbers and cut through the hype. Keep in mind I'm not necessarily talking about fantasy owners hyping him nearly as much as the media coverage, particularly the NFL Combine coverage which made him look like Bo Jackson. I'm not so sure the guy is so special we need to fawn. I'm not so sure he should be an automatic top-2 player, either. There are legitimate measurable-related questions about him - maybe more so than the top-rated Running Back in any recent draft-class other than injury-concerns for those players. He might not be the top RB in several other recent draft-classes.

And for fun, what does a Heisman RB since 1990 - the past decade - buy you?

1994 Rashaan Salaam
1995 Eddie George
1998 Ricky Williams
1999 Ron Dayne
2005 Reggie Bush (from this list the only 'first RB drafted' in 2005)
2009 Mark Ingram, Jr.