Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
- Orenthal Shames
- Player of the Year
- Posts: 2120
- Joined: Sun Mar 20, 2016 9:13 pm
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
I don't get the rah rah it's dynasty take. Ideally I look at a 2-3 year window. At best, Guice misses 1/3 of that timeframe. It absolutely hurts his value.
16 team league
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015 Champion
2017 Champion
2018 Champion
QB: Big Ben, Mariota
RB: Gurley, Kamara, Lewis, CJA, Gore
WR: Julio, Keenan, Cooks, Hamilton
TE: Kelce, Kittle
2019: 1.03
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
26 man rosters - full point ppr
2015 Champion
2017 Champion
2018 Champion
QB: Big Ben, Mariota
RB: Gurley, Kamara, Lewis, CJA, Gore
WR: Julio, Keenan, Cooks, Hamilton
TE: Kelce, Kittle
2019: 1.03
2020: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4
-
- Combine Attendee
- Posts: 30
- Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:55 am
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
That seems excessive.
We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
12-team/.5 PPR/6 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te), 1 Kicker
(2015&2016 Champion 2017 4th place)
QB: Philip Rivers , Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dak Prescott
RB: D. Johnson, J.Conner, M. Lynch, R. Burkhead, L. McCoy, P. Lindsay, D, Foreman, L. Bell
WR: T. Hill , TY. Hilton, D. Hopkins, M. Jones, DJ. Moore, DeDe Westbrook, Z. Jones, R. Anderson
TE: J. Reed, C.Herndon, R. Seals-Jones
2019 picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd
12-team/.5 PPR/6 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te),
(2015&2016 4th Place, 2017 Last Place)
QB: P. Mahomes, A. Luck, R. Fitzpatrick
RB: D. Johnson,S. Barkley,J.Mixon, A. Collins, P. Barber, M. Breida, P. Lindsay, E. McGuire
WR: T. Hill, J. Smith-Schuster, J. Landry, A. Jeffery, K. Golladay, T. Williams, S. Watkins
TE: T. Burton, D, Njoku, D. Walker
2019 Picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th
(2015&2016 Champion 2017 4th place)
QB: Philip Rivers , Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dak Prescott
RB: D. Johnson, J.Conner, M. Lynch, R. Burkhead, L. McCoy, P. Lindsay, D, Foreman, L. Bell
WR: T. Hill , TY. Hilton, D. Hopkins, M. Jones, DJ. Moore, DeDe Westbrook, Z. Jones, R. Anderson
TE: J. Reed, C.Herndon, R. Seals-Jones
2019 picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd
12-team/.5 PPR/6 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te),
(2015&2016 4th Place, 2017 Last Place)
QB: P. Mahomes, A. Luck, R. Fitzpatrick
RB: D. Johnson,S. Barkley,J.Mixon, A. Collins, P. Barber, M. Breida, P. Lindsay, E. McGuire
WR: T. Hill, J. Smith-Schuster, J. Landry, A. Jeffery, K. Golladay, T. Williams, S. Watkins
TE: T. Burton, D, Njoku, D. Walker
2019 Picks 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
Going 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.Fish Sticks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 amThat seems excessive.
We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
he was already 2 or 3 in most drafts that ive seen...im not sure how this changes anything. its not like there are ringing endorsements for penny, rojo, chubb right now. are you bumping freeman and kerryon up? i mean realistically....his value is insulated until this time next year by default. he cant play his way out of "value" if you follow me.Ice wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:42 amGoing 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.Fish Sticks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 amThat seems excessive.
We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013
i guess if you want to speak value as to what he gives you this year....he is giving nothing. possibly better draft position i guess. he also isnt losing any "value" unless perine or kelly were to roll with the job.
i think the big thing here is to follow your personal rankings. if you have someone tiered with guice, take that guy...but in most instances...guice had a tier to himself or was tiered with 1 (maybe 2) other guy/s.
this situation reminds you of michael, it reminds me of obj. guys that were drafted early initially, experienced an injury (causing them to fall in late rookie drafts).....but have the talent to be high end players.
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
If I felt that I needed to trade Guice I'd be valuing him like a future 1st round pick at this point. He absolutely should be devalued right now because he's not scoring any points for your team but at the same time he's a very insulated asset that should be worth more by this time next year. Guice will essentially be a 22 year old rookie in a weak RB class in 2019. If you can keep him stashed on IR and you don't feel like a strong contender I'd just recommend holding him.
As far as rookie drafts...I'd still be targeting him as early as 1.02 in a rookie draft if I wasn't contending. I would likely pivot to Penny/Rojo/Sony if I was a legit contender.
As far as rookie drafts...I'd still be targeting him as early as 1.02 in a rookie draft if I wasn't contending. I would likely pivot to Penny/Rojo/Sony if I was a legit contender.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
I wish I could remember where I read this but Guice may have still been injured at the combine. That may have been the real reason his 40 time was slow and he didnt participate in many of the drills. I found that little piece of information right after the draft and for the life of me I cant find it now. Its even more buried than it was before.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:52 pmI'm pretty sure Lev Bell hyperextended his knee in a playoff game, and then tore the same knee up the following season. I wonder if there was a correlation between the two injuries Guice had?DynoScout wrote: ↑Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:50 pmI'd probably still take him 1.02-1.04 but I feel a whole heckuva lot less excited about it. His running style could lead him to more often putting his body in awkward positions and increase the chance of some seemingly random/freak injury. Also a little curious if the untreated hyperextension in his knee while at LSU had anything to do with his draft day slide. Could understand if some of the more conservative medical staffs flagged him.
QB/WR WR WR/ RB RB/ TE/ FLX FLX/ DEF
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger
WR: Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Antonio Callaway, Michael Gallup, Justin Watson, Equanimeous St. Brown, Rashard Higgins, Deon Cain (IR)
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson Jr, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Josh Adams,
TE: OJ Howard, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin, Demetrius Harris
10 man, 1/2 PPR
QB: Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger
WR: Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, Antonio Callaway, Michael Gallup, Justin Watson, Equanimeous St. Brown, Rashard Higgins, Deon Cain (IR)
RB: Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Duke Johnson Jr, Austin Ekeler, Ito Smith, Josh Adams,
TE: OJ Howard, Chris Herndon, Tyler Conklin, Demetrius Harris
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
My take on Guice from the jump was he was JAG with upside. I moved him down further when he fell so hard in the draft. Too many in fantasy discount what the professionals think of players when it is staring them in the face.sloth8u wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:47 amhe was already 2 or 3 in most drafts that ive seen...im not sure how this changes anything. its not like there are ringing endorsements for penny, rojo, chubb right now. are you bumping freeman and kerryon up? i mean realistically....his value is insulated until this time next year by default. he cant play his way out of "value" if you follow me.Ice wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:42 amGoing 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.Fish Sticks wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 am
That seems excessive.
We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013
i guess if you want to speak value as to what he gives you this year....he is giving nothing. possibly better draft position i guess. he also isnt losing any "value" unless perine or kelly were to roll with the job.
i think the big thing here is to follow your personal rankings. if you have someone tiered with guice, take that guy...but in most instances...guice had a tier to himself or was tiered with 1 (maybe 2) other guy/s.
this situation reminds you of michael, it reminds me of obj. guys that were drafted early initially, experienced an injury (causing them to fall in late rookie drafts).....but have the talent to be high end players.
One reason I was down on him was his drop off from 2016 to 2017 was significant and he really showed no real 3 down ability. When he went to Washington it was pretty obvious to me he would be a 2 down back. I actually had him in a different tier than Barkley, Penny, and Michel due to his weakness in the passing game.
He was in the same tier as Chubb to me. I also believed there were 4 WR's in this draft with more upside that no one was really talking about given the massive RB group think this season. Those WR's were Gallup, Moore, Miller, and Sutton.
The most underrated RB's in this class IMO were Penny and K. Johnson as both have very good 3 down upside.
I had Guice and Chubb as the most overrated RB's in this class. They can play but neither have much 3 down upside for a long period of time. I didn't target Guice or Chubb in this draft.
I targeted Barkley, Penny, Michel, Johnson, Gallup, Moore, Miller, and Sutton. Ended up with Penny and Gallup in most leagues due to trades.
Not a chance I would take Guice in the first round post injury and didn't really want him in the first place due to limitations I see in the passing game given his situation.
I can see owners still drafting him in the late 1st but today I would certainly take any of those 4 WR's due to a year of developmental upside while Guice rehabs.
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
Guice posted a 4.49 at 224 lbs which gave him a 91st percentile speed score. That ain't slow, that's an elite size/speed athlete. I'm not aware that there is any truth to it, but if he did that while still injured

GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
- Oddball456
- Captain
- Posts: 769
- Joined: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:35 am
- Location: Chicago
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
I have the 1.06 in my upcoming draft and hope to take him there, I have the RB depth to let him ride my IR this year.
-
- Degenerate
- Posts: 7948
- Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2014 1:03 am
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
His 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
Haha no he definitely isn't slow. His fastest 40 time was identical to Dalvin Cook's, except Guice was carrying an extra 14 lbs. on his frame when he did it. I personally don't think of Dalvin Cook as being slow.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 amHis 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
It's an interesting thought about the discrepancies between his 40 times. I don't have any insight into how discrepancies between 40 times at the combine might correlate to a player's actual top speed.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
Don't think 40 time is/was an issue. Burst looks pretty average and changing gears in his routes were more of a concern for me personally. 40 time and game speed are very different IMO. Guice isn't slow when healthy.btv802 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 amHaha no he definitely isn't slow. His fastest 40 time was identical to Dalvin Cook's, except Guice was carrying an extra 14 lbs. on his frame when he did it. I personally don't think of Dalvin Cook as being slow.FantasyFreak wrote: ↑Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 amHis 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
It's an interesting thought about the discrepancies between his 40 times. I don't have any insight into how discrepancies between 40 times at the combine might correlate to a player's actual top speed.
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
This feels like fair criticism to me.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, K. Cousins, T. Brady
RB: M. Gordon, D. Henry, M. Mack, D. Freeman, T. Coleman, N. Hines, I. Smith, T. Montgomery, J. Hill
WR: B. Cooks, A.J. Green, C. Davis, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Samuel, M. Valdes-Scantling, T. Taylor, J. Ross, M. Lee, P. Richardson, J. Matthews, C. Coleman
TE: T. Kelce, D. Njoku, J. Smith
2019: 3.04, 3.06, 3.09, 4.04
2021: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
He probaby just got a bad start or his technique was off on that run. In writing 4.49 and 4.6 look like a really big difference, in reality and real time though it's not a massive difference. These guys train meticulously for this event and if even one movement is off it can completely throw off your time.
Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?
I think the main difference between Guice and Dalvin Cook is that Cook was producing fantasy points during the NFL season...and now we've seen Cook be a 2nd round pick in PPR/Redraft leagues. We still don't know what Guice is other than beat-writer/coach speak, however, it seemed that Washington's players were pretty broken about it happening...so maybe that tells you something about Guice?
Guice is young, and ACL tears aren't a death sentence but as others have mentioned it has caused a downturn in some over the years.
Having him go down is pretty devastating for those that did take him at 1.02 because I imagine that most selecting with that pick truly need the production. Yes, dynasty is a long-term game but I've seen teams pull complete 180s (both directions) in a year...so you never know....and for that reason you may start seeing Guice slip in drafts.
If he does fall in drafts, then contenders probably have any easy selection to plug him on IR and see if 2019 pays big dividends.
Guice is young, and ACL tears aren't a death sentence but as others have mentioned it has caused a downturn in some over the years.
Having him go down is pretty devastating for those that did take him at 1.02 because I imagine that most selecting with that pick truly need the production. Yes, dynasty is a long-term game but I've seen teams pull complete 180s (both directions) in a year...so you never know....and for that reason you may start seeing Guice slip in drafts.
If he does fall in drafts, then contenders probably have any easy selection to plug him on IR and see if 2019 pays big dividends.
Trucking Through The Fantasy Mud, One Year At a Time.
12-Man, 0.5PPR, Superflex, Start 9
2016 - Runner Up
2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion
Mahomes, Stafford, Mariota, Flacco
Kerryon, Hines, Adams, Barber, Burkhead, Martin, McGuire, Montgomery, Riddick, Wilson Jr.
Allen, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Hopkins, Thielen, Ross, Allison, Hamilton, Lasley
Kelce, Kittle, Thomas (HOU)
12-Man, 0.5PPR, Superflex, Start 9
2016 - Runner Up
2017 - Champion
2018 - Champion
Mahomes, Stafford, Mariota, Flacco
Kerryon, Hines, Adams, Barber, Burkhead, Martin, McGuire, Montgomery, Riddick, Wilson Jr.
Allen, Cooks, Fitzgerald, Hopkins, Thielen, Ross, Allison, Hamilton, Lasley
Kelce, Kittle, Thomas (HOU)
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Dynasty n00b, Google Adsense [Bot], Pac_Eddy and 5 guests