Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Orenthal Shames » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:08 am

I don't get the rah rah it's dynasty take. Ideally I look at a 2-3 year window. At best, Guice misses 1/3 of that timeframe. It absolutely hurts his value.
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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Fish Sticks » Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 am

bsacks13 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Just had my rookie draft today in my league today and he fell to 1.08.
That seems excessive.

We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
12-team/.5 PPR/6 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te), 1 Kicker
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12-team/.5 PPR/6 Pts per Passing TD. Start 1QB, 1RB, 2WR, 1TE, 2FLEX (rb/wr/te),
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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Ice » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:42 am

Fish Sticks wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 am
bsacks13 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Just had my rookie draft today in my league today and he fell to 1.08.
That seems excessive.

We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
Going 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.

The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby sloth8u » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:47 am

Ice wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:42 am
Fish Sticks wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 am
bsacks13 wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:18 pm
Just had my rookie draft today in my league today and he fell to 1.08.
That seems excessive.

We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
Going 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.

The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013
he was already 2 or 3 in most drafts that ive seen...im not sure how this changes anything. its not like there are ringing endorsements for penny, rojo, chubb right now. are you bumping freeman and kerryon up? i mean realistically....his value is insulated until this time next year by default. he cant play his way out of "value" if you follow me.

i guess if you want to speak value as to what he gives you this year....he is giving nothing. possibly better draft position i guess. he also isnt losing any "value" unless perine or kelly were to roll with the job.

i think the big thing here is to follow your personal rankings. if you have someone tiered with guice, take that guy...but in most instances...guice had a tier to himself or was tiered with 1 (maybe 2) other guy/s.

this situation reminds you of michael, it reminds me of obj. guys that were drafted early initially, experienced an injury (causing them to fall in late rookie drafts).....but have the talent to be high end players.

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby btv802 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:49 am

If I felt that I needed to trade Guice I'd be valuing him like a future 1st round pick at this point. He absolutely should be devalued right now because he's not scoring any points for your team but at the same time he's a very insulated asset that should be worth more by this time next year. Guice will essentially be a 22 year old rookie in a weak RB class in 2019. If you can keep him stashed on IR and you don't feel like a strong contender I'd just recommend holding him.

As far as rookie drafts...I'd still be targeting him as early as 1.02 in a rookie draft if I wasn't contending. I would likely pivot to Penny/Rojo/Sony if I was a legit contender.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, S. Perine, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, J. Hill, M. Gillislee, T. West
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, J. Ross, M. Williams, C. Coleman, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson, J. Matthews
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
IR: D. Guice
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Bot101 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:22 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:52 pm
DynoScout wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:50 pm
I'd probably still take him 1.02-1.04 but I feel a whole heckuva lot less excited about it. His running style could lead him to more often putting his body in awkward positions and increase the chance of some seemingly random/freak injury. Also a little curious if the untreated hyperextension in his knee while at LSU had anything to do with his draft day slide. Could understand if some of the more conservative medical staffs flagged him.
I'm pretty sure Lev Bell hyperextended his knee in a playoff game, and then tore the same knee up the following season. I wonder if there was a correlation between the two injuries Guice had?
I wish I could remember where I read this but Guice may have still been injured at the combine. That may have been the real reason his 40 time was slow and he didnt participate in many of the drills. I found that little piece of information right after the draft and for the life of me I cant find it now. Its even more buried than it was before.
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RB: Melvin Gordon, Joe Mixon, Derrius Guice (IR), Tarik Cohen, Chase Edmonds

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Ice » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:41 am

sloth8u wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:47 am
Ice wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:42 am
Fish Sticks wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:10 am


That seems excessive.

We just started our rookie draft and he still went 1.02.
Going 1.8 is a bit of a head scratch post injury but going 1.2 at this point is foolish. Guice is not Superman. Not only was he the 7th RB drafted in the NFL, is a near lock to be a 2 down back, but is now out for the year with a bad knee.

The Group think in Fantasy is alarming.
Reminds me of all the hype of Christine Michael when he was the 5th RB drafted in 2013
he was already 2 or 3 in most drafts that ive seen...im not sure how this changes anything. its not like there are ringing endorsements for penny, rojo, chubb right now. are you bumping freeman and kerryon up? i mean realistically....his value is insulated until this time next year by default. he cant play his way out of "value" if you follow me.

i guess if you want to speak value as to what he gives you this year....he is giving nothing. possibly better draft position i guess. he also isnt losing any "value" unless perine or kelly were to roll with the job.

i think the big thing here is to follow your personal rankings. if you have someone tiered with guice, take that guy...but in most instances...guice had a tier to himself or was tiered with 1 (maybe 2) other guy/s.

this situation reminds you of michael, it reminds me of obj. guys that were drafted early initially, experienced an injury (causing them to fall in late rookie drafts).....but have the talent to be high end players.
My take on Guice from the jump was he was JAG with upside. I moved him down further when he fell so hard in the draft. Too many in fantasy discount what the professionals think of players when it is staring them in the face.

One reason I was down on him was his drop off from 2016 to 2017 was significant and he really showed no real 3 down ability. When he went to Washington it was pretty obvious to me he would be a 2 down back. I actually had him in a different tier than Barkley, Penny, and Michel due to his weakness in the passing game.

He was in the same tier as Chubb to me. I also believed there were 4 WR's in this draft with more upside that no one was really talking about given the massive RB group think this season. Those WR's were Gallup, Moore, Miller, and Sutton.

The most underrated RB's in this class IMO were Penny and K. Johnson as both have very good 3 down upside.
I had Guice and Chubb as the most overrated RB's in this class. They can play but neither have much 3 down upside for a long period of time. I didn't target Guice or Chubb in this draft.

I targeted Barkley, Penny, Michel, Johnson, Gallup, Moore, Miller, and Sutton. Ended up with Penny and Gallup in most leagues due to trades.

Not a chance I would take Guice in the first round post injury and didn't really want him in the first place due to limitations I see in the passing game given his situation.

I can see owners still drafting him in the late 1st but today I would certainly take any of those 4 WR's due to a year of developmental upside while Guice rehabs.

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby btv802 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:48 am

Bot101 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:22 am
I wish I could remember where I read this but Guice may have still been injured at the combine. That may have been the real reason his 40 time was slow
Guice posted a 4.49 at 224 lbs which gave him a 91st percentile speed score. That ain't slow, that's an elite size/speed athlete. I'm not aware that there is any truth to it, but if he did that while still injured :think:
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, S. Perine, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, J. Hill, M. Gillislee, T. West
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, J. Ross, M. Williams, C. Coleman, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson, J. Matthews
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
IR: D. Guice
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Oddball456 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:55 am

I have the 1.06 in my upcoming draft and hope to take him there, I have the RB depth to let him ride my IR this year.

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby FantasyFreak » Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 am

btv802 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:48 am
Bot101 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:22 am
I wish I could remember where I read this but Guice may have still been injured at the combine. That may have been the real reason his 40 time was slow
Guice posted a 4.49 at 224 lbs which gave him a 91st percentile speed score. That ain't slow, that's an elite size/speed athlete. I'm not aware that there is any truth to it, but if he did that while still injured :think:
His 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby btv802 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 am

FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 am
His 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
Haha no he definitely isn't slow. His fastest 40 time was identical to Dalvin Cook's, except Guice was carrying an extra 14 lbs. on his frame when he did it. I personally don't think of Dalvin Cook as being slow.

It's an interesting thought about the discrepancies between his 40 times. I don't have any insight into how discrepancies between 40 times at the combine might correlate to a player's actual top speed.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, S. Perine, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, J. Hill, M. Gillislee, T. West
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, J. Ross, M. Williams, C. Coleman, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson, J. Matthews
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
IR: D. Guice
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


(bold green indicates projected '18-19 seasonal starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Ice » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:27 am

btv802 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:18 am
FantasyFreak wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:56 am
His 2nd run was 4.60, which had Mike Mayock raise his eyebrows, some, as I recall. I think it probably suggests 4.49 is his peak, with such a discrepancy in times. I very much doubt he was injured, or thought he was, or he would not have risked himself, IMO. Regardless, Guice is certainly not slow by any standard, but I very much doubt he would have tested had he been injured. I would love to see the report, if it exists, and know the source.
Haha no he definitely isn't slow. His fastest 40 time was identical to Dalvin Cook's, except Guice was carrying an extra 14 lbs. on his frame when he did it. I personally don't think of Dalvin Cook as being slow.

It's an interesting thought about the discrepancies between his 40 times. I don't have any insight into how discrepancies between 40 times at the combine might correlate to a player's actual top speed.
Don't think 40 time is/was an issue. Burst looks pretty average and changing gears in his routes were more of a concern for me personally. 40 time and game speed are very different IMO. Guice isn't slow when healthy.

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby btv802 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:31 am

Ice wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:27 am
Don't think 40 time is/was an issue. Burst looks pretty average and changing gears in his routes were more of a concern for me personally. 40 time and game speed are very different IMO. Guice isn't slow when healthy.
This feels like fair criticism to me.
GREEN MOUNTAIN BOYS
12 Teams - 24 Active - 4 IR - 4 Taxi - 1pt PPR, 6pt Pass TDs, No INTs - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 2FLX
QB: R. Wilson, M. Mariota
RB: J. Mixon, S. Perine, T. Coleman, G. Bernard, J. Hill, M. Gillislee, T. West
WR: B. Cooks, All. Robinson, S. Watkins, C. Davis, T. Lockett, J. Ross, M. Williams, C. Coleman, T. Pryor, C. Samuel, C. Henderson, J. Matthews
TE: D. Njoku, E. Ebron, J. Smith
Taxi: B. Scott, J. Scott, A. Lazard, M. Valdes-Scantling
IR: D. Guice
2019: 1st, 2nd, 3rd
2020: 2nd, 3rd, 4th


(bold green indicates projected '18-19 seasonal starters and ownership of my own future picks)

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby bjd5211 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:32 am

He probaby just got a bad start or his technique was off on that run. In writing 4.49 and 4.6 look like a really big difference, in reality and real time though it's not a massive difference. These guys train meticulously for this event and if even one movement is off it can completely throw off your time.

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Re: Guice torn ACL out for year. What's this do to his value in rookie drafts still to come?

Postby Servo » Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:39 am

I think the main difference between Guice and Dalvin Cook is that Cook was producing fantasy points during the NFL season...and now we've seen Cook be a 2nd round pick in PPR/Redraft leagues. We still don't know what Guice is other than beat-writer/coach speak, however, it seemed that Washington's players were pretty broken about it happening...so maybe that tells you something about Guice?

Guice is young, and ACL tears aren't a death sentence but as others have mentioned it has caused a downturn in some over the years.

Having him go down is pretty devastating for those that did take him at 1.02 because I imagine that most selecting with that pick truly need the production. Yes, dynasty is a long-term game but I've seen teams pull complete 180s (both directions) in a year...so you never know....and for that reason you may start seeing Guice slip in drafts.

If he does fall in drafts, then contenders probably have any easy selection to plug him on IR and see if 2019 pays big dividends.
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