Overabundance of RB1s in the league?

[hockeyBjj]

I replied to a different thread and it got me thinking, is there an oversaturation of RB1 potential viewed Rbs in the league right now? Just from the last two draft classes alone we have Fournette, Kamara, Hunt, Cook, Mixon, CMC, Barkley, Guice, Penny, Chubb, Michel, Rojo

All of those guys there either have been Rb1s (Kamara, Hunt, CMC, Fournette) or people see as a high or at least solid chance of becoming RB1s. That's 12 backs, so in a 12 team league even if all of them perform to expectations, they won't all be RB1s as Gurley/Zeke/DJ/Bell/Gordon/Freeman/Howard plus dark horses are all out there still like Drake and Collins and Ajayi who have opportunity

A stud RB has been hard to come by in trades most in dynasty leagues would agree the last few years, but guys considered stud RBs could easily end up being RB2s without even having disappointing seasons due to the numbers of potential RB1 and stud backs out there. Is the market due for a correction? I don't think there's 15-18 WRs out there people, if polled independently of the other options, would say are likely to be WR1s

[Friction]

It is a good time for Rbs right now. I think the volume aspect is really propped up by the fact you don't necessarily need to get 25+ carries every game. PPR makes volume a lot easier since the dump-offs and yards created amass points so quickly. Combine that with rushing yardage and tds, you have a potentially stud RB1. I still do not get the feeling of saturation quite yet, but I will say it has pushed me away from my attachment to full PPR. I have started moving towards 1/2 PPR now and would prefer that in any startup or Daily.

[bullsboy19]

Like you mentioned there is almost 20 names of potential RB1s which is crazy. So right now I'm buying some of the Vets like Gordon, Freeman, Howard because they seem to be going cheaper than most of the other RBs with such upside.

[murphysxm]

So right now I'm buying some of the Vets like Gordon, Freeman, Howard because they seem to be going cheaper than most of the other RBs with such upside.

Fantastic strategy

[ArrylT]

I don't think there's 15-18 WRs out there people, if polled independently of the other options, would say are likely to be WR1s

You are probably correct - most people seem to be talking about plenty of WRs as WR2s or WR3s.

Currently, based somewhat on Re-draft rankings, you can probably assume any of these could be potential WR1s for 2019 but not all of them are being considered WR1s. I have put a break where I think the line is consensus wise.

A. Brown
D. Hopkins
O. Beckham
M. Thomas
K. Allen
AJ Green
D. Adams
L. Fitzgerald
T. Hill
----
M. Evans
D. Baldwin
A. Thielen
A. Cooper
S. Diggs
D. Thomas
B. Cooks
A. Jeffery
A. Robinson
J. Landry
J. Gordon
TY Hilton
G. Tate
M. Jones

[ArrylT]

There are of course other WRs who could become WR1s down the line, depending on who you talk to, like

C. Davis
JJ S-S
D. Parker
C. Ridley
C. Sutton
DJ Moore
J. Doctson
M. Williams
S. Watkins
M. Gallup

But very few people are mentioning them as WR1s for 2019.

[Vcize]

Things always look rosier in the offseason before half of these guys fall flat on their face.

Its easy to bemoan the lack of these options of the previous generation in hindsight but go back 4 years and someone would be making the same argument about plenty of RB1s because of guys like Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Gio Bernard, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews, etc etc. A bunch of the guys you listed will be nothing more than the 2018 versions of these guys.

[UATahoe]

Things always look rosier in the offseason before half of these guys fall flat on their face.

Its easy to bemoan the lack of these options of the previous generation in hindsight but go back 4 years and someone would be making the same argument about plenty of RB1s because of guys like Eddie Lacy, Montee Ball, Gio Bernard, Andre Ellington, Zac Stacy, Doug Martin, Ryan Mathews, etc etc. A bunch of the guys you listed will be nothing more than the 2018 versions of these guys.

This is the cold hard truth of what ultimately will happen. Some will have big years but then drift off into obscurity. Using one year as the sample size to make long term projections is very risky. Will be interesting to see how last years class performs this year and how the landscape shifts accordingly.

[remedy29]

Besides Barkley, are this year's rookie RB's really viewed as strong sustained RB1 candidates over the next 3 or 4 years? I certainly do not view them as that. RB2 players, sure, but not RB1.

To be a high end RB1, a player who truly distinguises himself from the other RBs, the player will need to have a healthy number of carries, lots of TDs and have a lot of catches in PPR leagues.

I do not see how Guice, Penny, Michel, Chubb or Rojo strongly fit into that category. They are all quality, but it's more likely they all split time in RBBC limiting them to more RB2 category.

Granted a player like Kamara is in a RBBC and us a RB1. But he is a true stud player. He has shown it, these rookies have not.

[DLF3000]

Things could change quickly - by the end of the year, there could (read: will) be a ton of rookie AND sophomore "busts" or at least down years. That's the nature of the game, especially at RB. So take your shots and hope your guys work out.

It's all a gamble/guessing game - even this year's "trash" WR crop could surprise in a positive way. Or... go by the wayside like the last few terrible WR drafts.

[Blueboy]

Things could change quickly - by the end of the year, there could (read: will) be a ton of rookie AND sophomore "busts" or at least down years. That's the nature of the game, especially at RB. So take your shots and hope your guys work out.

It's all a gamble/guessing game - even this year's "trash" WR crop could surprise in a positive way. Or... go by the wayside like the last few terrible WR drafts.

Yep, especially given how year-to-year a position RB can often be. I fully expect a few of the sophomores to regress, and a number of this year's rookies to disappoint based on expectation.

[_yeti]

[. . .] I don't think there's 15-18 WRs out there people, if polled independently of the other options, would say are likely to be WR1s

Make the polls. Probably be surprised. Also there are 32 teams. Weird to compare potential RB1s to WRs as teams run three, four, and 5 wide sets, and also have TEs competing for targets where basically a third of NFL teams will have a fantasy RB1.

I think what you are getting at is there is a huge influx of young RB talent with high expectations. They will not all succeed

[moishetreats]

All of those guys there either have been Rb1s (Kamara, Hunt, CMC, Fournette) or people see as a high or at least solid chance of becoming RB1s. That's 12 backs, so in a 12 team league even if all of them perform to expectations, they won't all be RB1s as Gurley/Zeke/DJ/Bell/Gordon/Freeman/Howard plus dark horses are all out there still like Drake and Collins and Ajayi who have opportunity

I think that you're defining "RB1" improperly. It's not about the top 12 RBs. Say that RB10 scores 211 points, RB11 scores 208, RB12 scores 207, RB13 scores 206, and RB 14 scores 204. Are you really telling that RBs10-12 are RB1s and RBs13-14 are RB2s? Of course not.

Look at it more in tiers. There's RB1 tier, RB2 tier, etc. Consider that RB1 tier (or, if you consider only, say, Zeke, Bell, Gurley, Johnson, and/or Barkley and/or maybe someone else RB1, then RB2 tier) as having expanded. Some years, there might be 8 players in that tier, some years 11, some years 5, some years 17.

Now, say that this tier has expanded to around 15-18. The question is how you adjust your strategy to accommodate. Do you wait on RB, figuring that you can get an RB1 later than usual? Or you double (triple!) down trying to dominate at that position, having two RB1s while other owners might have zero? Or something else...?

[Phaded]

Half of them will be considered RB2s or worse by this time next year.

I actually still think there is a big shortage on top RBs, but I am also pickier than most of this community.

Hype is not production.

There has always been a lot of fluctuation at the top for RBs, people are just chasing youth and shiny new toys more aggressively.

[thebeast]

I think a bunch of last years rookies will fall on their face in a year or two and we will only have 1 or 2 RB1 from the class. Probably the same for this class. The 2017 class reminds me a lot of 2013 ( I think ) Lacy, Bell, Bernard, Ball who all carried RB1 value.