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Demaro Davis
Posted: Sun Jun 17, 2018 7:10 pm
by boobam13
Why isn't he getting any preseason love from anyone?
Been looking at several rankings for IDP and he doesn't crack a lot of top 25 ranks - is landing in NO that bad for his value?
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:03 am
by TB3falcons
He had a career year last, to me (as an owner), I am not expecting him to match his lofty stats. Especially in a different scheme.
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:46 am
by dlf_tomk
I've got him ranked about mid 30s for 2018.
There's a few different factors at play:
* He's been bad for most of his career. In 4 of his last 6 years [ie his whole career] PFF gave him a grade under 60. 3 of those years were under 50. 2017 was really his only "good" season.
* In raw stats you need around mid 70 solo tackles to be a top 24 LB. DD has only hit that twice with 78 in 2014 and 97 last year. His other seasons have produced 63, 57 and 59 solos. Those are low LB3/LB4 numbers.
* Dennis Allen runs a scheme that doesnt favour LBs. The top 2 LBs solo totals playing for him in NO:
2015 Stephone Anthony 70, Kikaha 32
2016 Craig Robertson 70, Nathan Stupar 39
2017 Craig Robertson 50, Manti Teo 42
His time in Oakland wasn't much more productive.
* The Saints stat crew is a fairly stingy one. This obviously factors into the point above.
* Although it looks like Davis is assured a starting role all year based on contract we thought that about AJ Klein last season too. I did at least. Klein was benched a couple of seperate times in the end.
So all in all he's a pretty poor player in both NFL and IDP terms who had a good 2017 and got a new contract off it. It looks a lot like his 2017 was an outlier and should not be used as a basis for his future production [on a different team under a different coach].
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:48 am
by dlf_tomk
Oh - also forgot to mention that his good 2017 was based on him playing 1,118 snaps. he led the league in LB playing time last year. Only 8 LBs in the past 5 seasons have played that much. It's simply not feasible that he's on the field as much next year.
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:24 pm
by TB3falcons
dlf_tomk wrote: ↑Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:46 am
I've got him ranked about mid 30s for 2018.
There's a few different factors at play:
* He's been bad for most of his career. In 4 of his last 6 years [ie his whole career] PFF gave him a grade under 60. 3 of those years were under 50. 2017 was really his only "good" season.
* In raw stats you need around mid 70 solo tackles to be a top 24 LB. DD has only hit that twice with 78 in 2014 and 97 last year. His other seasons have produced 63, 57 and 59 solos. Those are low LB3/LB4 numbers.
* Dennis Allen runs a scheme that doesnt favour LBs. The top 2 LBs solo totals playing for him in NO:
2015 Stephone Anthony 70, Kikaha 32
2016 Craig Robertson 70, Nathan Stupar 39
2017 Craig Robertson 50, Manti Teo 42
His time in Oakland wasn't much more productive.
* The Saints stat crew is a fairly stingy one. This obviously factors into the point above.
* Although it looks like Davis is assured a starting role all year based on contract we thought that about AJ Klein last season too. I did at least. Klein was benched a couple of seperate times in the end.
So all in all he's a pretty poor player in both NFL and IDP terms who had a good 2017 and got a new contract off it. It looks a lot like his 2017 was an outlier and should not be used as a basis for his future production [on a different team under a different coach].
In fairness the Saints haven't had any good LBs in recent years, so of course the LB stats are going to be suppressed and Allen will scheme away the weakness...
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:17 am
by dlf_tomk
It all goes hand in hand. "LBs have produced badly because Allen was in charge" is just as relevant as "he hasnt had any good ones". And of course good ones are often not as productive because bad LBs get targeted.
You can't simply scheme around a lack of quality at LB. That's a fundamental weakness. What are you going to do? Roll both safeties down to play in the box too? Any defensive weakness is an Achilles' heel for OCs and QBs to attack because defense is fundamentally reactive.
There's a lot that needs to happen for DD to be a top 20 LB. And given the minimal return I just don't want to bet on it all coming together.
The whole situation for me is a classic case of "journeyman LB has one good year, everyone jumps on him and is shocked when he doesnt repeat it". Which is exactly what you hinted at above in this thread of course.
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:04 am
by boobam13
Right now he is LB 29 - so LB3/Flex option
Taking the over or under to have him finish the season there compared to his ranking?
Re: Demaro Davis
Posted: Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:41 am
by Kcarr
I would put him in that mid to late 20s range so I think 29 is about right. I may take him a little ahead of that but certainly not much. I think there is a chance he hits that 70 solo mark to be a top 24 guy and likely that is as good as he will do. More likely somewhere short of that. In a shallow league, only starting 24 LBs or something crazy like that I wouldnt touch him for more than waiver prices because I want upside on my bench but I don't mind taking him as part of a shotgun approach to the LB spot, especially in a deeper league, if I am getting him around that range and have others around that range to increase my odds one or two hits