Russell Wilson Discussion Thread - Split with Seahawks?

[FantasyFreak]

Through the first 4 weeks this year, Wilson was at a 4/1 TD/INT ratio with a rush TD. You can cite other stats as well backing up that Wilson was playing better than his current fantasy production.

In that week 4 game, he suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder, variously referred to as a torn lat or torn labrum. Prescott got a similar injury last year to his non throwing shoulder, took a month off and had a surgery to address it this offseason.

In Wilson's 6 games he's played since (missed one game), he's thrown 4/4, with no rushing TD and his only fumble of the year. Wilson's best rushing game was that week 4 matchup, adding a season high 29 yards and tying a season high 4 attempts to go with his only rush TD. To give an example how severely his rushing has fallen off the cliff, he has 24 yards TOTAL on 10 attempts the last three games.

If Wilson's shoulder injury is the root cause of his poor performances this year, he's a screaming buy in all formats, regardless of whether SF or not.

Pass. (Pun intended)

In all seriousness, though. A guy in his mid thirties playing all year on torn shoulder isn't a good thing for his future prospects, if that's the case. It was supposed to bother him potentially for "multiple weeks". So it's either getting worse through playing, and hurting his shoulder further, or he just sucks. OR, perhaps "multiple" just means all year.

He wasn't good after he came back from his finger injury either. It's been years since Wilson was good, he's not mobile anymore, to the same degree he used to be, he can't extend plays, and he's just not a very good pocket QB. That's how I see it at this point, and I traded him in a few leagues before the value fell out this year, because I assessed it as such. Injuries or not, RW is nowhere close to an elite QB, and never will be again IMO. The Broncos got fleeced.

[Pullo Vision]

Through the first 4 weeks this year, Wilson was at a 4/1 TD/INT ratio with a rush TD. You can cite other stats as well backing up that Wilson was playing better than his current fantasy production.

In that week 4 game, he suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder, variously referred to as a torn lat or torn labrum. Prescott got a similar injury last year to his non throwing shoulder, took a month off and had a surgery to address it this offseason.

In Wilson's 6 games he's played since (missed one game), he's thrown 4/4, with no rushing TD and his only fumble of the year. Wilson's best rushing game was that week 4 matchup, adding a season high 29 yards and tying a season high 4 attempts to go with his only rush TD. To give an example how severely his rushing has fallen off the cliff, he has 24 yards TOTAL on 10 attempts the last three games.

If Wilson's shoulder injury is the root cause of his poor performances this year, he's a screaming buy in all formats, regardless of whether SF or not.

Pass. (Pun intended)

In all seriousness, though. A guy in his mid thirties playing all year on torn shoulder isn't a good thing for his future prospects, if that's the case. It was supposed to bother him potentially for "multiple weeks". So it's either getting worse through playing, and hurting his shoulder further, or he just sucks. OR, perhaps "multiple" just means all year.

He wasn't good after he came back from his finger injury either. It's been years since Wilson was good, he's not mobile anymore, to the same degree he used to be, he can't extend plays, and he's just not a very good pocket QB. That's how I see it at this point, and I traded him in a few leagues before the value fell out this year, because I assessed it as such. Injuries or not, RW is nowhere close to an elite QB, and never will be again IMO. The Broncos got fleeced.

I'm not talking about the trade (certainly looks like Denver severely overpaid) or whether Wilson will return to being seen as or producing at an elite level (certainly not seen as). My focus is exploiting his value drop. His drop off in play this year coincides with his week 4 injury. Before this year, and depending on scoring, Wilson was 13th in PPG last year and 10th in 2020. 25/6 ratio last year is great, 42/14 in 2020 was career high in pass TDs. Again league dependent but he's at 32nd among QB in PPG this year. That production gap between his last two years and this year is what I'm talking about attacking- either flip once the offseason reports of recovery come in or get high QB2/low QB1 production.

Regarding the "multiple weeks" report- in a three week period, he missed one game and had the bye week 9. The shot was of questionable use and Dak had more time to recover. Perhaps they thought combo of extra week off and bye week with the PCP shot would suffice.

The reduced rushing and mobility make sense to be connected, and there's surface level connection between the rushing drop off and the injury. How a torn shoulder labrum affects running I don't know, but the statistical connection is there.

[StripesOfKC]

Buying in SF now

Still locked into starting, playing hurt and priced so low that there's absolutely no QB with his high end of range of outcomes at that value

Bought for Tyler Allgeier straight up in one league and rolling him out in KC against our skeleton crew of a defense for the final (fingers crossed for some garbage time production)

[SteveMaddensShoes]

Logically that makes sense to buy him at a discount, especially Algier prices. But my eyes tell me it’s all over and I’ll be looking for a window to sell for anything I can get(that’s better than Algier). More like a Javan Dotson type I can’t get that now but maybe there will be a window at some point.

I no longer believe in the talent. This is not a Pitts injury or a Barkley or Dalvin Cook situation where their value was depressed due to injury or situation. Russ looks not right in the head to me. Something seems really wrong.

[Pullo Vision]

Logically that makes sense to buy him at a discount, especially Algier prices. But my eyes tell me it’s all over and I’ll be looking for a window to sell for anything I can get(that’s better than Algier). More like a Javan Dotson type I can’t get that now but maybe there will be a window at some point.

I no longer believe in the talent. This is not a Pitts injury or a Barkley or Dalvin Cook situation where their value was depressed due to injury or situation. Russ looks not right in the head to me. Something seems really wrong.

It's possible for him to be less productive due to injury and coach/scheme issue, as well as his talents/QB skills to have degraded.

It's not a question of him rebounding to his previous value, but that his current value is depressed and can be reasonably be expected to rebound this offseason.

[kmbryant09]

Denver fan here, Russell deserves most, if not all of the criticism that he's been receiving across the NFL this season.

But just one thing to point out - Hackett was a GB / Matt LaFleur disciple. I remember watching the Packers & Aaron Rodgers (relatively) struggle early on when LaFleur initially took over. Now look, Rodgers at his best & worst days was always more talented than Wilson during his best & worst days. And Wilson & the Broncos' struggles are much more significant than what any Packers / Rodgers team went through.

But it always had me thinking that this system is not easy to pick up until you master it. At least Rodgers & LaFleur have figured things out together, but knowing what a joke of a coach Hackett actually is (time management, gameplans, personnel packages, play tells, etc.), I think most QBs would struggle at least to a somewhat significant degree in this system.

And while Russ is playing poorly in many areas that he can control (accuracy, decision making, mobility, etc.), I can't ever remember him looking completely lost out there on the field (not knowing his reads, not having hot reads, protection issues, etc.). It legit looks like Russ doesn't know the play as soon as the ball is snapped - no idea where the design of the play is, progression of reads, what the defense is dictating, etc. He's still shown a very strong arm, some solid accuracy (at very sporadic times), and some mobility (again, sporadic) - and we know he's playing through injuries.

There's a very real possibility that he's cooked (pun intended) and the Broncos are f*!)#ed, but it wouldn't completely shock me if we see a revival in 2023 and beyond and we all look back on Hackett as an even bigger joke than we do right now (similar to someone like Adam Gase).

[FantasyFreak]

Buying in SF now

Still locked into starting, playing hurt and priced so low that there's absolutely no QB with his high end of range of outcomes at that value

Bought for Tyler Allgeier straight up in one league and rolling him out in KC against our skeleton crew of a defense for the final (fingers crossed for some garbage time production)

That's a fine price to pay, and I think he's never sniffing elite status ever again. He's terrible. He doesn't have the legs anymore, and his decision making is abysmal, just like it seemed to be whenever he started airing it out too much in Seattle.

Even though I think he's done as a top end QB, Allgeier is such a low price to pay.

[ericanadian]

He’s lost the rushing ability. He’s 34, so that shouldn’t be a surprise. His deep ball was always a key part of his skillset as well, and it wouldn’t surprise me if that has degraded a fair bit as well. Can he figure out a way to make it work with what he has left? I wouldn’t bet against him, though I think he’s done as an elite fantasy player. I’d be happy to have him as a QB2 with upside though.

[Pullo Vision]

Denver fan here, Russell deserves most, if not all of the criticism that he's been receiving across the NFL this season.

But just one thing to point out - Hackett was a GB / Matt LaFleur disciple. I remember watching the Packers & Aaron Rodgers (relatively) struggle early on when LaFleur initially took over. Now look, Rodgers at his best & worst days was always more talented than Wilson during his best & worst days. And Wilson & the Broncos' struggles are much more significant than what any Packers / Rodgers team went through.

But it always had me thinking that this system is not easy to pick up until you master it. At least Rodgers & LaFleur have figured things out together, but knowing what a joke of a coach Hackett actually is (time management, gameplans, personnel packages, play tells, etc.), I think most QBs would struggle at least to a somewhat significant degree in this system.

And while Russ is playing poorly in many areas that he can control (accuracy, decision making, mobility, etc.), I can't ever remember him looking completely lost out there on the field (not knowing his reads, not having hot reads, protection issues, etc.). It legit looks like Russ doesn't know the play as soon as the ball is snapped - no idea where the design of the play is, progression of reads, what the defense is dictating, etc. He's still shown a very strong arm, some solid accuracy (at very sporadic times), and some mobility (again, sporadic) - and we know he's playing through injuries.

There's a very real possibility that he's cooked (pun intended) and the Broncos are f*!)#ed, but it wouldn't completely shock me if we see a revival in 2023 and beyond and we all look back on Hackett as an even bigger joke than we do right now (similar to someone like Adam Gase).

That opens an unwelcome door- the LaFleur offense for the NYJ was too difficult for a rookie to pick up on. An offense with less wrinkles could help Zach Wilson.

[Ice]

Regardless of any guru or QB Whisperer they hire, I want nothing to do with him.

Not sure I ever owned him even in a redraft and not about to start now.

[mzkp54]

I just traded for him. Gave 2.07, 2.08, Mike white and Purdy for Russ and Jeudy. Feel like he’s worth taking by a stab at for cheap if owners understandably want to dump him. Not like he can be worse.

[Pullo Vision]

So, @Zach_Segars has a tweet thread breaking down how Denver can get out of Wilson's contract this offseason. Would require declaring him a post June 1st cut along with a series of cuts and restructures, but mathematically possible. One has already been done and others (like a Patrick cut/restructure) make a ton of sense.

[Cameron Giles]

So, @Zach_Segars has a tweet thread breaking down how Denver can get out of Wilson's contract this offseason. Would require declaring him a post June 1st cut along with a series of cuts and restructures, but mathematically possible. One has already been done and others (like a Patrick cut/restructure) make a ton of sense.

It's interesting to think about, but Denver has to give it another try. You don't give up all of that for Wilson (assets and money) to end it after 1 season with a bad coaching hire.

I don't think this is a situation that can't be fixed....yet.

[bjd5211]

Ya no chance they do it this year, their best solution is getting a HC that will get Russ back to the QB he was (or at least close). If next year is an absolute disaster again though then they are probably best off figuring out how to just bite the bullet on the contract and go into a complete rebuild.

[mild]

I've already heard plenty of speculation on the Athletic that the Denver ownership group (for-real the richest group in the NFL now since they bought in, literally $60 bn of Walmart money standing by for use) will be able to make Sean Payton a godfather offer.

As the top Coach (allegedly) available this offseason, and with the new group needing to save face in a massive way - I see this as an extremely likely scenario.

I wouldn't put it past them to can George Paton if Payton insisted on having his own GM. They need a win in the worst way after this debacle of a season, and Coaching money doesn't go on the cap sheet. Look for them to get their elbows out imo.