Russell Wilson Discussion Thread - Split with Seahawks?

[mild]

Replying to this, and to a bit of what Mild had to say...

Yeah, you've pretty much got it. There is clearly a gap between who Russ thinks he is (a top 5 QB, and the money that that entails) and who the Seahawks think he is (a guy that can't float a talent deficient offense like Rodgers or Brady can). Given that's the case, they had to make the tough choice to move on and grant Russell's wish.

I think they should have gotten more - but that No Trade clause definitely removed some bidders from the table.

What's really gonna be interesting is that Russell only has 2 years left on his contract.
Are the Broncos going to pay him what he wants?

This one is easy. Yes.

Funnily enough, Russell's 19 million cap hit for 2022 was actually nicely offset by the outgoing contracts - Fant, Lock, and Shelby Harris combine to save Denver (I believe) around 12 million against the cap. Denver still has over 30 million to play with this offseason; I would anticipate some of that going to a signing bonus on a new long-term extension.

QB prices are only ever headed one way: up. Earlier you do the deal, the better - as you're pot-committed to him now for the next 2 years anyway with no 1sts.

If you read what I've written, then you'd know the answer. I mean, I'm willing to admit it might work out for Denver. What you don't get is that it seems like everyone else is making it a LOCK he will win them a superbowl.

...

But also, currently, yes, I'd put Cousins in the same teir as Wilson.

See, this is more problematic thinking.

Nobody is saying they are a lock for the Superbowl. If anything, what -everyone- is saying is that the AFC West is now a bloodbath. You know what else is crazy? Their designated division this year is the NFC West.

Pour one out for the Raiders, who now get 6 games of Wilson, Mahomes, and Herbert - and then an additional 3 of the Rams, Cards, and Fighting Kyle Shanahans. It's very unlikely that 3 teams are making it out of this division.

But what would you rather Denver do? That's where I'm shocked with your thinking. This roster -on paper- is strong - but you can't evaluate it without seeing what -at least- league average QB play does for your competitiveness. Russell enables that evaluation. You now have something to build and improve from. Mahomes, Herbert... and in the wider AFC, Burrow, Lamar, Allen, hell, even Mac Jones - are not going anywhere any time soon.

What would you have Denver do, just roll over and give up for the next bunch of years? To even compete, they needed to upgrade. Paying Kirk Cousins money, giving up assets to get a QB with a history of winning? That's just the price of doing business. There is no shame in having Kirk Cousins (nor Russell Wilson) on your roster, if you can surround them successfully enough.

When the alternatives were rolling out Drew Lock, Teddy B, one of the uninspiring rookies, or *gulp* Carson Wentz... there will be no regrets here.

[Cameron Giles]

I get what you're saying if you think he's a C level QB or worse. But, if he's in that B or B+ tier, then this is a great trade for Denver considering they have been starting bottom tier QBs for years after Manning retired

Does C mean mid range QB? PFF had him at 17th last year, 18th if we include brady.
I'd put him a couple spots higher. 14th best QB in the NFL right now. (At least 5 in AFC I'd pick over him to win SB. J.Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert)

If Denver wins the Superbowl in 2022, its will be a great trade for them.

But what if Denver goes 12-5, wins one playoff game, then loses, is it a great trade for them? Fans gonna be happy with that?

I doubt it. Plus, that's even worse. Do they pay him the HUGE contract he is going to want? If not, they have him for one more year and someone probably over pays him. He's gonna want guaranteed money. Denver then has a big, BIG risk. If he really is on the decline now they are out all money along with the picks. What if he is so so and the go 8-9? Then what does Denver do, let him walk?

Bottom line, I think today, R.Wilson is a slightly above average QB. And I think if he plays well but not well enough, that's even going to prove more problematic for Denver.

I would have kept the picks and tried to draft a QB. You CAN find them. Russell was like a 3rd round pick.

If you told any team except maybe the two teams who got to the Super Bowl last year that they could go 12-5 next season, win one playoff game, and lose, I think they would take that.

Russell Wilson is an anomaly. Saying "you can find" a player like him in the 3rd round is like saying you can find a player like Tom Brady in the 6th round. Is it theoretically possible? Yes, but how many years would it take you to achieve that before it happened?

There's a very high likelihood that none of the picks Seattle acquired ever amounts to anything comparable to Russell Wilson.

[Anteaters]

My thinking would be that now that the Hawks have a pool of capital and a bunch of cap space, bring in the guys you want to have long term ASAP so that you can hear their input and help get the pieces in place that they want/need for the system they are going to run. The Rams were dog bleep under Fischer but they didn't wait to get all the pieces in place (not that you'd know what pieces to get in place) before they hired McVay. I think if you're going to tear it down and build a new team, might as well have the lead engineers from the start, or else you're going to end up with the same archaic Pete Carroll team that hasn't done anything for half a decade

That would make sense.

[FantasyFreak]

Trade seems good for both teams to me, probably a win-win.

Denver's benefit is obvious. They get a top QB and can now try to compete for a title. They gave up a lot, but they still have a good team and will probably be able to attract free agents.

Seattle was going nowhere with Russ and that squad, so they can start a proper rebuild with a stockpile of picks. Plus, they don't have to pay him $50m/year now. The question really is if the compensation they got was worth it. If that's the best they could get, I don't fault them for pulling the trigger.

Replying to this, and to a bit of what Mild had to say. Processing this news on day 2, things are making a little more sense. While this wasn't a great deal for Seattle, It was a deal they pretty much had to make as an organization.

1. Seattle wasn't going to pay Wilson $50 mil a season. After the Rodgers news was announced, it became clear that's the type of number Russ would be after once the 2022 season concluded. Pretty much a non-starter as far as the front office was concerned.

Don't think anybody is paying him that. Don't get me wrong, as a Raiders fan I'd be very happy about that. However, Rodgers is the top paid guy for a variety of reasons, from the power he now holds in the organization, to his career track record, and especially his back to back MVP's. Teams aren't going to "next man up" people to Rodgers numbers. Unless they are really poorly run, of course.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Replying to this, and to a bit of what Mild had to say. Processing this news on day 2, things are making a little more sense. While this wasn't a great deal for Seattle, It was a deal they pretty much had to make as an organization.

1. Seattle wasn't going to pay Wilson $50 mil a season. After the Rodgers news was announced, it became clear that's the type of number Russ would be after once the 2022 season concluded. Pretty much a non-starter as far as the front office was concerned.

Don't think anybody is paying him that. Don't get me wrong, as a Raiders fan I'd be very happy about that. However, Rodgers is the top paid guy for a variety of reasons, from the power he now holds in the organization, to his career track record, and especially his back to back MVP's. Teams aren't going to "next man up" people to Rodgers numbers. Unless they are really poorly run, of course.

We'll find out next offseason for sure! They may not pay him close to what Rodgers is expecting, but I'm not so sure. If they feel they're truly a "win now" team who was only a QB away they may do whatever it takes to keep Russ around. I have to figure the Denver brass is aware of the QB contract landscape, and has probably had discussions already about what Wilson's extension will look like. I don't think they'd give up what they did unless they were committed to keeping Russ around for a while, and keeping him happy.

[JTLoh]

This one is easy. Yes.

My question was semi rhetorical. Obviously they don't make the trade without feeling they can agree to terms on a deal.
The more important issue and follow up to the question is the what? What will R.Wilson want, how long, how much guaranteed.
The longer and more guaranteed the contract the more problematic I see it becoming for the broncos.

But what would you rather Denver do? That's where I'm shocked with your thinking.

I'm not saying I totally hate what they did. I definitely applaud them for doing something. All I'm saying is I don't think this works out for them as they are hoping. I'm saying, I'm not sold on R.Wilson being elite anymore. I'm saying, for what they are giving up and what they are going to end up having to pay him, they will not get the return on their investment they are hoping for.

Every team in the NFL isn't going to go sign a Russel Wilson. So what do they do? Apparently, nobody in this thread thinks you can find a quarterback in the draft anymore. Or they just mistake what I am saying. Of course you can't just hope to pick a QB in the 3rd. But you can do what other teams have done and will be doing. Find your guy and DRAFT him. It is an OPTION. Or why not Kyler Murray?

I don't understand why everyone just can't get it or why you would be "shocked" at my thinking. Do you all really believe I'm the only person on the planet who thinks this won't end up being a good move for Denver? Apparently so.

Nobody is saying they are a lock for the Superbowl. If anything, what -everyone- is saying is that the AFC West is now a bloodbath. You know what else is crazy? Their designated division this year is the NFC West.

If they don't win a Superbowl with Russell, are the Broncos fans going to consider it a successful move? What would the results be to have it considered a successful move? And yes, AFC West is a blood bath, filled with younger, elite QBs. Hence, my reason for believing that if the Broncos tie themselves to Wilson and he isn't what he once was it will hurt them for YEARS.

What would you have Denver do, just roll over and give up for the next bunch of years?
When the alternatives were rolling out Drew Lock, Teddy B, one of the uninspiring rookies, or *gulp* Carson Wentz... there will be no regrets here.

Again, I agree, Denver should do something. Nobody is saying they shouldn't but you act like this was their only option. It was NOT. And yes, I think they would have been better off with a different QB. Obviously, not Wentz/Lock/Bridgewater. Go get Kyler. Go get Watson. Draft a M.Willis, M.Corral, K.Pickett and start them right away. See what they have. Give them 2 years, by then you'll know. If they are another Drew Lock, so be it, do it again. Are you gonna hit right away? No, but the point is, that it IS an option and other teams are finding their QBs this way. It's worked for the Patriots, Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles (maybe, I like hurts), Chiefs, Ravens, etc.

Bottom line, I say, good job Denver for making moves, trying, etc. For that, I applaud you. Are you a way better football team now, YES! Of course. But I don't think this was the best move you could have made for your club. Why? My opinion is that Russell Wilson will NOT give the return on the investment needed to make this a winning move.

Time will tell.

[CGW]

...

Again, I agree, Denver should do something. Nobody is saying they shouldn't but you act like this was their only option. It was NOT. And yes, I think they would have been better off with a different QB. Obviously, not Wentz/Lock/Bridgewater. Go get Kyler. Go get Watson. Draft a M.Willis, M.Corral, K.Pickett and start them right away. See what they have. Give them 2 years, by then you'll know. If they are another Drew Lock, so be it, do it again. Are you gonna hit right away? No, but the point is, that it IS an option and other teams are finding their QBs this way. It's worked for the Patriots, Bills, Bengals, Cowboys, Eagles (maybe, I like hurts), Chiefs, Ravens, etc.

Bottom line, I say, good job Denver for making moves, trying, etc. For that, I applaud you. Are you a way better football team now, YES! Of course. But I don't think this was the best move you could have made for your club. Why? My opinion is that Russell Wilson will NOT give the return on the investment needed to make this a winning move.

Time will tell.

You act as if Kyler and Watson were/are options. Kyler was never going anywhere. Watson's situation is far from clear and theres a non zero chance he doesnt play again in 2022...and I'm even someone who thinks he will play sooner than later (there are many who dont). Realistically, their options for 2022 were Rodgers, Wilson, Jimmy G, and then a bunch of cheaper lesser FAs.

Alternatively, they could have drafted a QB, I agree. But franchise QBs dont grow on trees. Sure, it works sometimes and teams will get Burrow, Allen, Murray, etc. But more often, they strike out. Just because we've had a few strong years at QB in the draft does not mean the 2022 and beyond drafts will be loaded with talent. We may not even see a QB in the top 10 picks next month. I for one, dont want a single QB from this draft leading my competitive fantasy rosters. I'm sure one will hit, but if you have a team you want to compete with in 2022 do you take that chance when a perennial pro bowler is available?

[Anteaters]

Every team in the NFL isn't going to go sign a Russel Wilson. So what do they do? Apparently, nobody in this thread thinks you can find a quarterback in the draft anymore.

While the press keeps saying SB or bust, I don't think the GM and owner of Denver are thinking that. There is a HUGE gap between SB and what Denver has accomplished in the past 6 seasons after Manning's final season in 2015.

In those six seasons, Denver is 39-58. Denver has not made the playoffs in those six seasons. Denver has finished last in the AFC West 3 times, finished third 2 times, and has never really challenged for the division title in those six years. With Manning, Denver won the division 4 consecutive seasons. Denver scored 482 points in Manning's final season, but has not topped 400 points since and has two seasons under 300 points. In Manning's first three seasons in Denver, the teams Point Differential was over 100 every season. In the 6 years since Manning retired, Denver's Point Differential has been negative 4 times and was only 36 and 13 when it was not negative.

It's not like Denver hasn't tried to find a competent QB in the past 6 seasons. In 2015, they drafted Siemian while Manning was playing with a lame arm, hoping Siemian could be a decent understudy. Failure. Paxton was a first round QB in 2016. Failure. Flyer on Kelley in 2017. Failure. Locke in second round 2019. Failure. Bridgewater in 2021. Failure. Denver has tried to get a decent QB several times via the draft and FA and failed every time.

Now Denver has few decent options. Try one of the project QBs in the '22 draft, which almost certainly means the '22 season will be a losing season, and maybe more losing seasons if that guy is not good enough. They can hope one of the current FAs is good enough, but we all know none of the '22 free agents are worth a gnat's butt. They can try to trade for a lower-level QB like Wentz/Goff but they make about the same $ as Wilson and neither is half as good as Wilson. IMO, if Denver wanted a good QB for the '22 season, Russell Wilson was the only logical choice I see. There simply isn't another good option out there. Kyler is not available. Watson is not an option yet, would cost more than Wilson when he is trustworthy to be available, and besides, Denver may not even want him and his baggage. Rodgers was not an option.

Lastly, Denver doesn't have to win the SB in '22 for this to be a successful move. Just making the playoffs will make this trade a decent success. Getting to the AFC Championship game will make this the best trade in Denver history. Getting to the SB makes this one of the best trades in NFL history. But again, even if Denver doesn't make the SB with Russell, this can still turn out to be a very good trade for the team as long as they have a real chance to make the playoffs and be a contending team for the next 5 years. I don't think there is any doubt Russell allows Denver to do that.

If Denver fails to make the playoffs, I will agree with you that this turned out to be a bad move.

[JTLoh]

You act as if Kyler and Watson were/are options. Kyler was never going anywhere. Watson's situation is far from clear and theres a non zero chance he doesnt play again in 2022...and I'm even someone who thinks he will play sooner than later (there are many who dont). Realistically, their options for 2022 were Rodgers, Wilson, Jimmy G, and then a bunch of cheaper lesser FAs.

If I gave you the impression I was saying either of those guys were 100% options then I apologize. I never meant they could 100% pull off getting one of those guys. However, they are in fact within the realm of possibilities. Risky for the team pulling the trigger but the fact remains the Texans would trade Watson today if they got offered the same deal the Seahawks got. And its clear Kyler wants out of Arizona so who knows what the cards would do if they got offered a similar deal. So you can't really say with certainty they AREN'T options either. My point in bringing them up, was that I would have liked those options better. (Well, maybe not Watson until a few weeks when we find out about criminal charges. If the grand jury does NOT indict him, I would definitely prefer Watson over Wilson even if Watson sat for all of 2022.)

Alternatively, they could have drafted a QB, I agree. But franchise QBs don't grow on trees.

Agree, it's risky and doesn't always work out. But again, all I am saying is I like that option better than the Wilson deal. Rookie QBs are cheap and you can find out in a year, maybe two what you have. I'd rather see them do what the cardinals did. Take Josh Rosen and you figure out sooner rather than later he isn't the guy, trade him for what you can get and fire another bullet the next year, Kyler.

And again, it's not like I am saying I'm totally in on this not working out for Denver. I can see it. Its more like, if I was going to give it a probability, I'd say its like 40%-60%. 40% is still pretty good odds for Denver. But if Wilson isn't elite anymore and he is a mediocre QB for the next 8 years, Denver isn't likely to be able to get out of it 2 years from now, etc. If I am right, they are doomed to be the Minnesota Vikings for the next 5-7 years.

[Ice]

After the Rams traded 2 firsts a third and Goff for 34 year old 1 time pro bowler Stafford and netted a SB it is pretty easy to see why Denver paid a steeper price for Wilson.

Denver gave 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a 5th and 3 players for Wilson and a 4th.

Wilson is a 9 time pro bowl QB with a title and another SB appearance. It also pretty easy to see why so many think Denver was the big winner in this trade. Wilson is lock 1st ballot HOF and has the 4th highest passer rating in QB in history. Wilson looks to have years left in the tank.

I really like the bold move they took. Time will tell but at least now they have a fighting chance in a very tough division with solid QB's top to bottom.

Go big or Go Home looks like the mantra for the Broncos these days.

[Sriracha]

After the Rams traded 2 firsts a third and Goff for 34 year old 1 time pro bowler Stafford and netted a SB it is pretty easy to see why Denver paid a steeper price for Wilson.

Denver gave 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a 5th and 3 players for Wilson and a 4th.

Wilson is a 9 time pro bowl QB with a title and another SB appearance. It also pretty easy to see why so many think Denver was the big winner in this trade. Wilson is lock 1st ballot HOF and has the 4th highest passer rating in QB in history. Wilson looks to have years left in the tank.

I really like the bold move they took. Time will tell but at least now they have a fighting chance in a very tough division with solid QB's top to bottom.

Go big or Go Home looks like the mantra for the Broncos these days.

^
They may not win a ship but they've got at least a puncher's chance now that they've got the most important position in football solved.

I personally don't believe DEN was truly "1 QB away" from being a dominant football team but Russ is one of the best Galvanizers and leaders in football so we could see something akin to a Tom Brady-lite culture shift across the entire football team with him at the helm.

[JTLoh]

After the Rams traded 2 firsts a third and Goff for 34 year old 1 time pro bowler Stafford and netted a SB it is pretty easy to see why Denver paid a steeper price for Wilson.

Denver gave 2 firsts, 2 seconds, a 5th and 3 players for Wilson and a 4th.

Wilson is a 9 time pro bowl QB with a title and another SB appearance. It also pretty easy to see why so many think Denver was the big winner in this trade. Wilson is lock 1st ballot HOF and has the 4th highest passer rating in QB in history. Wilson looks to have years left in the tank.

I really like the bold move they took. Time will tell but at least now they have a fighting chance in a very tough division with solid QB's top to bottom.

Go big or Go Home looks like the mantra for the Broncos these days.

Definitely paid dividends for the RAMS. I can't argue with that.
I would argue the Rams have/had a better team and better coaching then the Broncos. (but that's a whole new can of worms)
If Matt Gay misses the FG vs Bucs or that pass falls incomplete to get them in FG range, 100% the Rams fans begin to question if the trade was worth it or not.

In any event, there will be no denying if the Broncos win a SB it was worth it.

[YouMightDieTryin]

^^^
x2

Why sit with mediocrity in Denver and in Seattle's case just treading water? Both had to do something to break the current trend they were going in. Think of it as a FF team that's in 5th or 6th place every year. You can try to contend or sell the farm, but just maintaining what you're doing won't get you a championship. Something in DEN had to give and with their current WR/RB the iron is hot now Sure everyone else in the AFC is a juggernaut too, but at least you stand a fighting chance with a capable QB at the helm.

[kmbryant09]

Just because Noah Fant was a 1st round pick doesn't mean he's worth anything close to that. He was a mid/late first round pick who hasn't lived up to expectations and is already halfway through his cost controlled rookie contract.

If the Broncos tried to seel Fant to the highest bidder, he wouldn't have fetched more than a 4th or 5th round pick in return.

This is a criminally low valuation of Fant's trade value... that was completely pulled out of your arse.

Mayyyyybe he wouldn't net a first but there's no way he goes for a day 3 pick like you're assuming.

Uhhh, what?

Mayyyyybe he wouldn't net a first - like you had to add 4 extra "y's" to emphasize that it was a possibility?

He's going into his 4th year of his rookie contract, meaning you're acquiring him for 1 relatively cheap year or 2 market appropriate years if you pick up his expensive 5th year option. He's never topped 68 catches, 673 yards, or 4 TDs in a single season. He's missed games every single season. And was just shipped out by his current team as like the 6th best asset in a trade.

I remember each of the past 2 seasons when Evan Engram was on the trading block before the trade deadline - and the Giants refused to accept any offers for him because the best he could fetch was a day 3 pick.

Stefon Diggs was acquired for a 1st and a few late round picks. Antonio Brown was traded for a 3rd & a 5th. Zach Ertz was traded for a 5th round pick + backup CB. Trent Williams was traded for a 3rd & 5th. Deandre Hopkins was traded for a 2nd + washed up RB.

And you thought "mayyyyybe" Fant wouldn't net a first?

Still laughing at the comment that Fant mayyyyyybe wouldn't fetch a first like a team paying a first or second for him was a realistic scenario.

I understand contracts matter, but Amari Cooper just netted a 5th rounder and a swap of 6ths

[FantasyFreak]

This is a criminally low valuation of Fant's trade value... that was completely pulled out of your arse.

Mayyyyybe he wouldn't net a first but there's no way he goes for a day 3 pick like you're assuming.

Uhhh, what?

Mayyyyybe he wouldn't net a first - like you had to add 4 extra "y's" to emphasize that it was a possibility?

He's going into his 4th year of his rookie contract, meaning you're acquiring him for 1 relatively cheap year or 2 market appropriate years if you pick up his expensive 5th year option. He's never topped 68 catches, 673 yards, or 4 TDs in a single season. He's missed games every single season. And was just shipped out by his current team as like the 6th best asset in a trade.

I remember each of the past 2 seasons when Evan Engram was on the trading block before the trade deadline - and the Giants refused to accept any offers for him because the best he could fetch was a day 3 pick.

Stefon Diggs was acquired for a 1st and a few late round picks. Antonio Brown was traded for a 3rd & a 5th. Zach Ertz was traded for a 5th round pick + backup CB. Trent Williams was traded for a 3rd & 5th. Deandre Hopkins was traded for a 2nd + washed up RB.

And you thought "mayyyyybe" Fant wouldn't net a first?

Still laughing at the comment that Fant mayyyyyybe wouldn't fetch a first like a team paying a first or second for him was a realistic scenario.

I understand contracts matter, but Amari Cooper just netted a 5th rounder and a swap of 6ths

Obviously. Cooper at a younger age, on his rookie deal netted a first. To say this current trade proves Fant wouldn't net close to a 2nd is ridiculous. I agree he wouldn't net a first, but Hayden Hurst netted a 2nd rounder in a very similar contract situation. That trade is a lot more relevant a situation and comparison than this Cooper one is. Apples and Oranges. Using the Cooper trade to dig back up your supposed point that it's not a realistic scenario that Fant could net a 2nd and further trying to ridicule that poster is nothing short of pathetic.