Dynasty League Football Forum

Breakout age could be a reason.

The dude wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 11:22 pm a lot of people vote for kirck but no one says why he would be superior to Miller

Because the people that voted Kirk are just following what the "experts" are saying but have no real reason to back it up so they just voted because they can't justify it in words to say kirk is the better prospect. Word came out today he was arrested for throwing rocks at oncoming traffic? How stupid is that!? I seriously hope he gets suspended for that.

The dude wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 11:22 pm a lot of people vote for kirck but no one says why he would be superior to Miller

you will find that the typed out responses paint a better picture than the poll results. often times people come in clicking and then leaving, those with substance say something.

I cannot answer why kirk is going early 2nd or even 1st round while Miller goes late 2nd or 3rd round. Miller was one of my favorites predraft and then landing spot, draft spot, chance for immediate role all made him even more enticing to me. Kirk seems like a speedy guy and will be a threat in the return game and could have a rookie season much like tyreek hill had but who knows if he will have that kind of splash play impact.

I also think it speaks volumes about a teams vision for a certain player when they trade up to get their guy. heck they traded up 2 rounds and gave up a 2019 2nd, thats an indication he should be a front runner for snaps right away, imo

BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 10:55 am

The dude wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 11:22 pm a lot of people vote for kirck but no one says why he would be superior to Miller

you will find that the typed out responses paint a better picture than the poll results. often times people come in clicking and then leaving, those with substance say something.

I cannot answer why kirk is going early 2nd or even 1st round while Miller goes late 2nd or 3rd round. Miller was one of my favorites predraft and then landing spot, draft spot, chance for immediate role all made him even more enticing to me. Kirk seems like a speedy guy and will be a threat in the return game and could have a rookie season much like tyreek hill had but who knows if he will have that kind of splash play impact.

I also think it speaks volumes about a teams vision for a certain player when they trade up to get their guy. heck they traded up 2 rounds and gave up a 2019 2nd, thats an indication he should be a front runner for snaps right away, imo

Tyreek can play on the outside for one and Kirk's speed is not even close to Tyreek's....Kirk is a faster version of Jarvis Landry not a slower version of Tyreek....totally different players.

I voted for Miller. I think he will be the better pro. But, since a few of you keep asking...I suppose I'll provide the likely reasons for you that people choose Kirk.

#1. Name recognition/familiarity. Kirk has been talked about since his freshman year, breaking out for over 1000 yards as a freshman in the SEC.
#2. SEC. I don't think I need to say more. The existence of SEC biases are clear.
#3. This thing called breakout age. A lot of people rave about it. It can be useful, but like all things, needs some context around its application. Kirk "broke out" (as fits the definition of breakout age) as a freshman. Miller was a walk-on and redshirted as a freshman, and didn't technically break out until he was a junior. He broke out with significantly bigger numbers output, but nonetheless his breakout age is quite a bit older. The argument (which I generally agree with but not in this case) goes that if a player comes in and dominates his average college competition as a freshman, he's likely a stud athlete and great football player. If he can't dominate his average competition until he is an upperclassman and likely bigger and more experienced than his competition, well then he's probably not elite NFL material. The argument for breakout age makes a lot of sense, but like all things, needs context. Looking at just the breakout age, Kirk dominates in this metric, so there you go. Another point for Kirk in a lot of people's eyes...even though his breakout was just over 1000 and then he got just under 1000 the next two seasons, failing to improve. Miller's breakout was just over 1400 yards, and then he repeated it with another 1400. Don't ask me what actual percentage of their total team output they put up...as I'm not figuring that out and don't know where to easily find it. Anyways...short answer...glancing at the breakout age tells the story that Kirk was a great player at an earlier age.
#4. 40 time. Kirk's was faster. That's the metric most people look at the most, and Kirk won. Not everyone will look at size adjusted speed or agility or anything further. Just the raw speed in the 40, and Kirk won.
#5. Draft status. Kirk was drafted first (by just a little bit) but was therefore more desirable to at least ONE NLF team...maybe more. When in doubt, many will simply just trust what the draft told them.
#6. Age. Kirk is a couple years younger (or thereabouts I think, not looking it up again right now). All other things equal (never the case), take the younger player in a dynasty.
#7. Trubisky. He didn't look too prolific of a passer last year, and that worries people. Personally, I think people just need to realize that he was playing in the most QB limiting offense left over since Fisher lost his job in LA.

So...you've got, at minimum, NAME RECOGNITION, SEC BIAS, BREAKOUT AGE, 40 TIME, DRAFT STATUS, AGE, and QB QUALITY (all key things many, many people lean on) ALL telling them to take Kirk over Miller, even if they like Miller. I don't agree with it, but there you go. A thought out explanation for you.

I voted Miller, but I think it is close. Kirk playing against higher competition isn't just an SEC bias thing. He's going to have a much smaller jump in competition compared to Miller, and is better set up to succeed in year 1 as a result. We frequently see smaller school WRs have a harder time in year 1 compared to bigger schools.

Kirk could be extremely valuable as a fantasy asset, I just think he is more limited to the slot role for his career than Miller. I want WRs who can play outside if I am taking one in the top 15-18, since they have less chance to get torpedoed by being in the wrong scheme.

Titans95 wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 1:36 pm

BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 10:55 am

The dude wrote: ↑Mon May 14, 2018 11:22 pm a lot of people vote for kirck but no one says why he would be superior to Miller

you will find that the typed out responses paint a better picture than the poll results. often times people come in clicking and then leaving, those with substance say something.

I cannot answer why kirk is going early 2nd or even 1st round while Miller goes late 2nd or 3rd round. Miller was one of my favorites predraft and then landing spot, draft spot, chance for immediate role all made him even more enticing to me. Kirk seems like a speedy guy and will be a threat in the return game and could have a rookie season much like tyreek hill had but who knows if he will have that kind of splash play impact.

I also think it speaks volumes about a teams vision for a certain player when they trade up to get their guy. heck they traded up 2 rounds and gave up a 2019 2nd, thats an indication he should be a front runner for snaps right away, imo

Tyreek can play on the outside for one and Kirk's speed is not even close to Tyreek's....Kirk is a faster version of Jarvis Landry not a slower version of Tyreek....totally different players.

the comparison was strictly about how i could see a high end rookie season playing out, not how they play the WR position. Hill didnt have amazing numbers as a rookie (as a WR) but had many splash plays that went for big touchdowns, many times these were punt/kick returns...which is an area kirk has been outstanding in. I dont see kirk having a 1000 yard rec season but could see a season similar to hills rookie year where he gets about 500 and 6 scores and then has another 100 yards on runs and then has great return yardage and another handful of scores there.

Hill had 600 yards for 6 td, 267 rushing with another 3 TD, and about 900 total return yards with another 3 scores. his nice rookie year came from multiple avenues combined, thats what i could potentially see happening with kirk, a good rookie year but no numbers that jump off the page as a WR

BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Wed May 16, 2018 12:40 pm

Titans95 wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 1:36 pm

BigBawseRoss wrote: ↑Tue May 15, 2018 10:55 am

you will find that the typed out responses paint a better picture than the poll results. often times people come in clicking and then leaving, those with substance say something.

I cannot answer why kirk is going early 2nd or even 1st round while Miller goes late 2nd or 3rd round. Miller was one of my favorites predraft and then landing spot, draft spot, chance for immediate role all made him even more enticing to me. Kirk seems like a speedy guy and will be a threat in the return game and could have a rookie season much like tyreek hill had but who knows if he will have that kind of splash play impact.

I also think it speaks volumes about a teams vision for a certain player when they trade up to get their guy. heck they traded up 2 rounds and gave up a 2019 2nd, thats an indication he should be a front runner for snaps right away, imo

Tyreek can play on the outside for one and Kirk's speed is not even close to Tyreek's....Kirk is a faster version of Jarvis Landry not a slower version of Tyreek....totally different players.

the comparison was strictly about how i could see a high end rookie season playing out, not how they play the WR position. Hill didnt have amazing numbers as a rookie (as a WR) but had many splash plays that went for big touchdowns, many times these were punt/kick returns...which is an area kirk has been outstanding in. I dont see kirk having a 1000 yard rec season but could see a season similar to hills rookie year where he gets about 500 and 6 scores and then has another 100 yards on runs and then has great return yardage and another handful of scores there.

Hill had 600 yards for 6 td, 267 rushing with another 3 TD, and about 900 total return yards with another 3 scores. his nice rookie year came from multiple avenues combined, thats what i could potentially see happening with kirk, a good rookie year but no numbers that jump off the page as a WR

Ahhh, now that makes sense. My bad!

Cherokee wrote: ↑Sun May 13, 2018 1:19 am

lic217 wrote: ↑Sat May 12, 2018 7:37 pm Miller is my WR1 in this draft...

No, sir. Miller is our WR1 in this draft

Emphasis on the "OUR".

Loved the depressed ADP. Was able to trade down twice, netting a 19 2nd and still land Miller at pick 17 in our draft.

I was able to snag Miller at 2.06 in my rookie draft for team 1 - THRILLED to get him there!

I'm Kirk just b/c I favor his qb situation

Miller reminds me of stedman bailey.

Space Cowboy wrote: ↑Fri May 18, 2018 7:48 am Miller reminds me of stedman bailey.

His size, workout numbers, college numbers, and college level of competition make him look like a clone of Taywan Taylor to me. I don't know if that says I should like Taylor more than I do, or Miller less than I do.

Cherokee wrote: ↑Sun May 13, 2018 1:19 am

lic217 wrote: ↑Sat May 12, 2018 7:37 pm Miller is my WR1 in this draft...

No, sir. Miller is our WR1 in this draft

Wow im so happy to hear this I got Miller at 3.07 in my rookie draft (superflex but still a steal) and comments like these just get me super pumped up.

I can't help but think we all have a bit of subconscious influence here. When was the last time the Bears had a truly great WR? It's been yeeeeeaaaars right? Muhsin Muhammed might have been the last "good" WR there, so I think people just equate "Bears" with "subpar WR play". Same goes with the Cardinals. When I imagine the Cardinals I see Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin dominating and putting up multiple 1,000 yard seasons, so i subconsciously think Kirk will just slot in and do the same, and also that Miller will struggle. But both teams have new coaches so it could go the other way