Top 8 Rookie RB's - Which ones are on your "DO NOT DRAFT" list?

[bsp27]

Michel for me. Let someone else have the usual Pats RB guessing game. Banking on him becoming a workhorse is madness.

Then again, who the hell knows... it's the Pats! Making him one of their 1st round picks still blows my mind to pieces.

Dion Lewis finished as the rb 17 last year only playing on 37% of the snaps. Now, Michel has first round draft capital, more opportunity, and is extremely talented.

[dynastyninja]

I think the tough part is a lot of the backs have gone to good locations where volume won’t be of concern. That in turn drives up perceived value. But the other end of the decision is which one of these backs come out on the other end as a staying power and a worthwhile dynasty investment. At this point, we are all guessing on which lottery ticket is the winning one. Lol.

The discussions I have had with others where they pointed out the roller coaster that is rookie drafting versus trading out for proven players is really starting to ring true. I was really gung-ho on drafting all of the next great rookie rb but it really does seem to be a flip of the coin and hope for the best.

I say all of this from the perspective of sitting in the 1.06 spot.

1.06 is the best possible place to draft this year (relative to "value" of the pick). You're getting a top running back.

[FantasyFreak]

Johnson, Rojo, Guice(for the price)

Im assuming you mean you wont take him at 1.02? Care to elaborate? He seems to be the guy to take but Ive seen some others taken there.

Well, yes @the 1.02. I did not have him there pre-draft, and the alarming amount of RB's that went ahead of him further cemented this assessment for me.

[gopackgo]

I value Mixon more in Barkley's tier if he were in this draft class.

I'm not touching Kerryon Johnson anywhere in the 1st, he looks like a total turd to me. A turd that can run hard perhaps, but a turd nonetheless. They also have Blount for goal-line if they so choose and Abdullah/Riddick for passing down work.

@Dynasty DeLorean ...gonna go out on a limb here and say he's not one of the top backs on your DD RB report then... when will that be out?

[UATahoe]

I think the tough part is a lot of the backs have gone to good locations where volume won’t be of concern. That in turn drives up perceived value. But the other end of the decision is which one of these backs come out on the other end as a staying power and a worthwhile dynasty investment. At this point, we are all guessing on which lottery ticket is the winning one. Lol.

The discussions I have had with others where they pointed out the roller coaster that is rookie drafting versus trading out for proven players is really starting to ring true. I was really gung-ho on drafting all of the next great rookie rb but it really does seem to be a flip of the coin and hope for the best.

I say all of this from the perspective of sitting in the 1.06 spot.

1.06 is the best possible place to draft this year (relative to "value" of the pick). You're getting a top running back.

I would agree. I am guessing it will be 1 of Michel, Freeman, or Jones II. My plan had been Penny but the draft blew that up.

[sloth8u]

the better question here is "where does wr fit in."

the drafts that ive participated in so far see these rb's going off the board as the top 8 for the most part. that cant be right imo. I'll give some slides in the draft or some "disappointing locations" for the wr's, but should all 8 of these rb's be off the board before a wr goes?

this time of year I tend to look back at my predraft rankings for these rookies and try to find some guys that might have fell due to something during the draft, rather than look at who may have gained. simply my opinion here, but penny, Johnson, and freeman have seen a pretty significant increase....while some others have fallen a good bit.

this really supports the "deep draft" theory that some were thinking we would see and has completely devalued some of the better picks, but I would not ignore predraft rankings when it comes to evaluating these guys. don't over think your draft/s. take your guy is my advice. my guess is that talent will prevail for a lot of these guys, both rb and wr....and what looks like meh...today, will look awfully good in a few years.

[DLF3000]

Michel for me. Let someone else have the usual Pats RB guessing game. Banking on him becoming a workhorse is madness.

Then again, who the hell knows... it's the Pats! Making him one of their 1st round picks still blows my mind to pieces.

Dion Lewis finished as the rb 17 last year only playing on 37% of the snaps. Now, Michel has first round draft capital, more opportunity, and is extremely talented.

Your optimism both excites and terrifies me as a Patriots fan and dynasty player

[stoneghost28]

I will never draft Ronald Jones and/or Kerryon Johnson in the top 12 picks

One of the funnier developments for me was arguing with my brother about Jones. He is buying into Jones via, "Draft Capital and Situation," despite the fact that both of us, as Redskins fans, already know how that can be irrelevant if you're not talented (Perine, Betts, and Helu for instance w/Alfred Morris being a rare exception). I'm not a Jones fan at all, see him as a poor man's attempt at duplicating Reggie Bush and failing entirely. He's got that same explosiveness in space, but he's significantly less impressive between the tackles (and Bush didn't project very well either which is saying something), and less productive in the passing game. I just don't see the attraction.

Despite all this, in a recent Apex start up, I just missed out on Mixon, the last RB I rated in that second tier of WR's, and as a result I ended up with Hopkins, Robinson and Corey Davis at 1.02, 2.11 and 3.02. I waited with baited breath anticipating that one of Guice, Penny, Chubb, Michel or the less attractive Derrick Henry would fall to me at 4.11 (I didn't like any of the veteran RB's available at that point). Considering team selections and needs, I figured one of th four would last to me, and then that worst case scenario played out:

Sitting at slot 4.11, after slot 4.06's selection 4 of the 5 backs were still available. Just needed one guy between 4.07-4.10 to go another direction and I'd be set with one of the remaining 3 rookies or failing that, Henry. Two of four teams picking had selected RB's with 2 of their first 3 picks, so I figured it was virtual lock. Wrong.

4.07: Derrick Henry (no accounting for taste)
4.08: Rashaad Penny
4.09: Nick Chubb
4.10: Sony Michel

and then I picked Ronald Freaking Jones.

Followed that by trading out of 5.02, and hoping I could get Coleman at 6.04 (I didn't, he was taken at 5.12).

Jones while not quite "Do Not Draft," is a guy I'd only draft if he fell below adp in a rookie draft. In a start up, I felt I had no choice, the bottom fell out of the RB position quickly,

Round 1: 8 RB's Drafted
Round 2: 4 RB's Drafted
Round 3: 3 RB's Drafted
Round 4: 7 RB's Drafted (my selection of Jones was the 7th RB in the round, and 22nd RB off the board)

Another 7 backs would be taken in the 5th and 6th round).

[Vcize]

A Reggie Bush comparison for Rojo is incredibly lazy, not going far beyond the uniform and maybe size. Bush was a dancer. Rojo is a one cut and hit the gas type back, who's weight is much better distributed where it should be for a RB (in his thighs, rather than his biceps).

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Michel for me. Let someone else have the usual Pats RB guessing game. Banking on him becoming a workhorse is madness.

Then again, who the hell knows... it's the Pats! Making him one of their 1st round picks still blows my mind to pieces.

Dion Lewis finished as the rb 17 last year only playing on 37% of the snaps. Now, Michel has first round draft capital, more opportunity, and is extremely talented.

The bolded part is the one I am not so sure about.

[thebeast]

Michel for me. Let someone else have the usual Pats RB guessing game. Banking on him becoming a workhorse is madness.

Then again, who the hell knows... it's the Pats! Making him one of their 1st round picks still blows my mind to pieces.

Dion Lewis finished as the rb 17 last year only playing on 37% of the snaps. Now, Michel has first round draft capital, more opportunity, and is extremely talented.

The bolded part is the one I am not so sure about.

There’s at least more opportunity to stay healthy, which would likely turn into more points...

[MEuRaH]

I'm not taking Rashaad Penny.

He doesn't read blocking well enough, nor does he run the play as it's designed to be run. So many examples to point out, even in his highlights. In this video, he takes the handoff on what's supposed to be a stretch play with zone blocking, designed to be an outside run first. If the outside's not there, then you are supposed to work your way in until you find a hole. Instead, he hits the far inside lane (which should be the LAST read, not first) and looks like a champ doing it. The problem is that he got creative like this all the time vs sub-NFL level talent and got away with it a lot. You can't get away with that stuff at the NFL level. He's in for a rude awakening.

He's also leaning his body to change direction instead of swiveling his hips, and doesn't get many big plays based on avoiding tacklers, but instead on pure speed running through gaping holes in the offensive line. He also gets arm-tackled a lot and falls down awkwardly far too often for my liking. That's an injury waiting to happen.

Did I forget to mention that he couldn't beat out Donnel Pumphrey for the starting job? He also can't pass block, and he got drafted to a team with a bad O-line.

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While I'm here, I think Ronald Jones is a project pick. He's the only RB prospect I've ever see that can't carry the ball in his left hand. Go watch any video of him. The ball will be in the right hand all the time, right in the face of danger where defenders can knock it out. Again, that won't fly in the NFL. Being able to learn to switch isn't something that just happens, either. You gotta know when to switch, how to do it, and you have to be able to do that in a split-second in a game to (a) secure the ball and (b) use the free hand to push away defenders. There's more, but I just don't like RJ a whole lot for this main reason. It's the same reason that Bryce Brown (Eagles/Bills) was such a great prospect but never amounted to anything.

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And to all you nay-sayers on Kerryon Johnson, I think you're over-thinking it. I don't think he'll be Saquon or anything, but I would not be shocked to see him come out of his rookie year as the 2nd best RB in this draft. First of all, he's got great size and speed, and he can make tacklers miss in a phone booth. He went to a great situation in Detroit, running on turf, indoors, little-to-no competition (Blount couldn't beat Corey Clement by the end of the season.... gimme a break), and the Lions drafted a run-blocking Center in the 1st round, a tackle in the 5th, and the best zone-read blocking FB in the 7th. The Lions traded up to get him, meaning that they plan on using him immediately. IMO, Kerryon is setup for success like no other RB in this entire draft.

The main complaint on Kerryon is the injury history, and I get that. In fact, that's why he fell to the 2nd round (43rd overall). HE FELL..... to the 2nd. That's a big deal. Dude is easily a 1st round talent. The injuries are a concern, but I don't think it should be the sole reason to write someone off entirely.

I'm getting all copies of Kerryon that I can get my hands on.

[lukkynumber13]

Penny unless he falls to 1.07 or later.

Freeman unless it's at 1.08 or 1.09.

I have a love/hate relationship with RoJo and Kerryon Johnson both.

[ColdZealDonkeyStrike]

Dion Lewis finished as the rb 17 last year only playing on 37% of the snaps. Now, Michel has first round draft capital, more opportunity, and is extremely talented.

The bolded part is the one I am not so sure about.

There’s at least more opportunity to stay healthy, which would likely turn into more points...

Good point.

[DynoScout]

I find myself looking across the battle line from people usually standing next to me when it comes to Ronald Jones. That is a bit unsettling.
Took him at 1.06 yesterday, over Freeman and Kerryon.

That's not the earliest I would take Jones, so I was pretty glad to land him there.