Jerick McKinnon Thread

[_yeti]

Everyone has their own draft board. I'm asking simple questions. Why wasn't he valued at a 1st rookie year? What has he done to be valued at mid 1st or better in the last 4 years? Why couldn't he beat out 2 short yardage Jags? I like McKinnon and his value went from a 3rd to 2nd with landing spot for me BUT I feel like he's getting the Joe Williams and Breida treatment. Being in a shannahan offense alone increases rb value regardless of talent or previous production

Those questions have been answered repeatedly by people who were paying attenton. Also the word JAG is getting thrown around an awful lot. Murray starts for two franchises and is a jag? That's just throwing it around casually for anyone who isn't an RB1.

Not "beating out" people for an early down role is being touted so much. Are people unable to understand that different teams have different plans of attack and focal points of their offense? Where is this all of a sudden holier than thou preference for "up the gut" runs coming from? I haven't seen it on this forum with the worship of Leveon, Zeke, and DJ in the passing game. When did this coveting of someone being the most "complete" back in the league get put over potential points? What is the world coming to lol

I have watched plenty of McKinnon to know he isn't a lead back. He a COP/3rd down guy. Why the value jump from rookie year to now? Situation...

Murray was replaced by 2 teams and no longer starter and going on 3rd backup year. Most would agree Asiata is a jag

I never said Asiata, did I smart guy? Starter who was replaced on NFL teams does not equal Jag. You don't even know what the terminology means. Also, it has been explained to you over and over why Asiata played more, you just can't get it through your BroncoHead

[broncohead]

Those questions have been answered repeatedly by people who were paying attenton. Also the word JAG is getting thrown around an awful lot. Murray starts for two franchises and is a jag? That's just throwing it around casually for anyone who isn't an RB1.

Not "beating out" people for an early down role is being touted so much. Are people unable to understand that different teams have different plans of attack and focal points of their offense? Where is this all of a sudden holier than thou preference for "up the gut" runs coming from? I haven't seen it on this forum with the worship of Leveon, Zeke, and DJ in the passing game. When did this coveting of someone being the most "complete" back in the league get put over potential points? What is the world coming to lol

I have watched plenty of McKinnon to know he isn't a lead back. He a COP/3rd down guy. Why the value jump from rookie year to now? Situation...

Murray was replaced by 2 teams and no longer starter and going on 3rd backup year. Most would agree Asiata is a jag

I never said Asiata, did I smart guy? Starter who was replaced on NFL teams does not equal Jag. You don't even know what the terminology means. Also, it has been explained to you over and over why Asiata played more, you just can't get it through your BroncoHead

That time of the month? I'm just trying to have a conversation, on a forum, about ff. My position is he is worth a 2nd and not a mid 1st or better like some here believe. If you're gonna get moody wait a few days for symptoms to subside.

[Jfever]

At the end of the day, it's going to be about production. I feel like it's reasonable and even conservative to think that McKinnon will get somewhere around 8-15 carries and 4-6 receptions per game, if healthy. Tough to predict TDs but 5-6 rushing and 3-4 receiving seems low end / do-able. In a change of pace role, sharing carries or splitting duties, he still seems promising. Why the hate, doubt, and negativity persists in this thread AFTER the numerous and erroneous questions have been answered and clearly explained is beyond me. Personally, I one him in one league of 6, all ppr. I value him around the 1.05-1.08 in terms of rookie pick value. I'm a life long Vikings fan and have seen the whole story. Like "seen as in seen him play" not like I looked closely at his YPC, YAC, etc.

[nathanq42]

Where was all this hype for him when when he was a Rookie? He was likely drafted 3rd round or later and ended up on many leagues free agency at some point. He hasn't done anything in the last 4 years to warrant the MASSIVE value jump (people are wanting mid 1st or better compensation). In a vacuum I have 7 rookie Rbs ranked ahead of him and in the same tier as 3 others.

Where can I buy that ranking list!!! Man people are probably lined up around the block for it

Everyone has their own draft board. I'm asking simple questions. Why wasn't he valued at a 1st rookie year? What has he done to be valued at mid 1st or better in the last 4 years? Why couldn't he beat out 2 short yardage Jags? I like McKinnon and his value went from a 3rd to 2nd with landing spot for me BUT I feel like he's getting the Joe Williams and Breida treatment. Being in a shannahan offense alone increases rb value regardless of talent or previous production

As many people have mentioned he only played RB in his senior year at college so he was pretty raw coming out, physical freak, but a bit too small and poor inside running instincts due to a lack of experience. In the open field he is a beast and he is a good catcher as well. That is probably why he wasn't ranked in the first round in 2014, not to mention he was behind one of the best RBs ever to play the game AP (would you draft anyone in the first round if they were stuck behind AP? Doubtful), plus the 2014 Draft class was pretty good to boot which pushed Mckinnon down as well I bet.

I get he didn't beat asiata that one year and he lost work to murray this year, I cant attest to the asiata year because I don't get MIN games, but other that have watched have shared their points about that. This year he was RB21 (in my league that give .2 points per carry which bumps him even further down my points ranking), that is with not doing anything of note in the first 4 games of the season, and splitting time with Murray... so if you wanna talk about efficiency I guess his YPC isnt that great but he put up great fantasy production this year.

Even his YPC isn't that bad.. it isn't top of the league but 3.8 YPC is respectable. That puts him at RB31 in terms of YPC, guess who is behind him?

Fournette (tied)
Lamar Miller
Christian McCaffrey
Joe Mixon

All likely drafted/value well above McKinnon (except miller), but no one brings up their efficiency....

He is .2 ypc behind bell, and McCoy, .3 ypc behind zeke, and Jordan Howard, .5 YPC behind Tevin Coleman, Freeman, Ajayi. But no one dogs those guys on their efficiency...

You know how much .5 of a yard is? A foot and a half.. that is basically the length of the ball and the margin of error of a referee's spot of the ball...

McKinnon shouldnt be traded for Gurley, but he is better than the chances of a back half first of hitting (50% iirc).

So I mean hold onto his stats all you want but relative to some studs they aren't even that bad...

FYI
YPC
Drake | 4.8
Alfred Morris | 4.8
Dion Lewis | 4.8

Go buy those guys for top 4 picks, they have great efficiency... Right? RIGHT??? Wrong, because there is more to the equation than YPC...

(Damn this got long...)

Edit:
Gio
Wayne Gallman
Marshawn
Bilal Powell
Orleans Darkwa
Breida
Blount
are all in the range of 10-17.... soooooooooooo yeah all of those guys must be RB10-17 right? :/ Cmon guys... which are all head of the names mentioned earlier as well....

[Bad News Barrett]

I respect everyone's opinion

I've seen the same person, though, say they wouldn't give anything higher than a mid first for JuJu, and in the next thread, say they wouldn't move McKinnon for less that 1.01

So essentially, he'd need JuJu++ to move McKinnon

What has McKinnon done to warrant being valued higher than a 21 year old receiver that played extremely well already?

[skip]

Stats are explainable but the huge value jump to mid 1st or better compensation is what people have questions about. He wasn't considered a top prospect coming into the league and is now being considered one? Doesn't add up.

There are two schools if thought when it comes to McKinnon which is why this thread keeps running in circles... Neither side can agree on the significance of stats to this point which leaves only a subjective argument on both sides.

[broncohead]

Stats are explainable but the huge value jump to mid 1st or better compensation is what people have questions about. He wasn't considered a top prospect coming into the league and is now being considered one? Doesn't add up.

There are two schools if thought when it comes to McKinnon which is why this thread keeps running in circles... Neither side can agree on the significance of stats to this point which leaves only a subjective argument on both sides.

Agree completely. I feel that McKinnon inability to take over lead role from Asiata and Murray plays a big role in how I value him. Also the fact Vikings went out and drafted Cook. Who's to say the 49ers don't grab a RB in first 2 rounds?

[dynastyninja]

I think it's reasonable to question whether McKinnon is worth his sudden value-spike.

I find myself not wanting to believe in the guy because his new price makes me a little uncomfortable to invest in and there's been nothing notable so far about his production, but I do think he's landed in a great spot where they are paying him like they plan on using him. Physical ability is there, and it's reasonable to assume that he's developed his non-physical attributes significantly since he's been in the NFL. RB2 numbers are a reasonable expectation this year, but I get the upside here and can see why some people are seeing the potential for a lot more than "just" RB2 numbers.

I don't think I'd pay a first for him just because I like to be more confident in who I'm investing in, but I don't think it's the wrong price either.

[dm1129]

Kyle Shanahan has several years of tape on McKinnon. No one knows Kyle Shanahan's offense better than.......Kyle Shanahan. No one knows better how Kyle Shanahan plans to use McKinnon's skill set than...Kyle Shanahan. With that in mind, the 49ers paid McKinnon 30 million while there are several highly talented RBs in this year's draft. I think it is safe to say that McKinnon is going to be used in ways that do not even vaguely resemble his years in Minnesota.

[FantasyFreak]

Kyle Shanahan has several years of tape on McKinnon. No one knows Kyle Shanahan's offense better than.......Kyle Shanahan. No one knows better how Kyle Shanahan plans to use McKinnon's skill set better than...Kyle Shanahan. With that in mind, the 49ers paid McKinnon 30 million while there are several highly talented RBs in this year's draft. I think it is safe to say that McKinnon is going to be used in ways that do not even vaguely resemble his years in Minnesota.

Well put.

[Jfever]

Previous years stats must be viewed & taken within the context in which they came to be. This should go without saying. It isn't an issue of subjectivity vs objectivity. It just takes an understanding of what we as a community can take, could take, and or should take, from black and white statistics. Judging McKinnon's current value,projections, role, and production (knowing what we know today) with heavy relevance on the ideas of Mckinnon not "beating out" Asiata, or the communities views and opinions on him when he was was drafted, is an oversimplified (to a fault) way of determining player values.

[Bad News Barrett]

Ryan McDowell of DLF just tweeted a trade, basically

McKinnon and 1.12 for Mike Evans

Some junk pieces involved on both sides as well

Yep, that's where we are at

[nathanq42]

Ryan McDowell of DLF just tweeted a trade, basically

McKinnon and 1.12 for Mike Evans

Some junk pieces involved on both sides as well

Yep, that's where we are at

I like McKinnon... Not nearly that much!

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I realize all stats have context but you can justify why nearly any player was not living up to his potential, almost in the same way you can say a player isn't as good as they seem if you just "take away his 2 big runs". Just about every player thread you see this type of behavior. I used to do it too but I gave it up b/c it's a load of nonsense. By that I mean the arguments themselves may not be nonsense, but for the most part I don't think they have any type of predictive qualities about them. You could break down Sankey's numbers and say he was actually a really good RB but it doesn't mean anything if a coach refuses to play him. Now in the case of McKinnon you have the idea that he's being paid a lot of money so he will get on the field and he will produce. That's a compelling argument. Breaking down the exact reasons why he underachieved in Minnesota isn't proof of anything, imo.

[Jfever]

Looking at his horrific oline the year "he had his chance (2016),avg ypc, at the fact that he never established himself as the true lead back given a couple / few opportunities as a negative, is ok. Problem is, he was hand picked by a coach who has a track record of success. Gets brought into a good situation, signs a friendly contract that speaks for the teams and coaches opinion toward his use. The negatives from the past don't include fantasy production. Signs indicate that his arrow is pointed up. I don't however agree that due to all this that his value is equal to or greater than the top 4-5 picks in rookie draft.

Breaking down the reasons he somewhat underachieved in Minnesota must be relevant. It isn't proof of anything, but, it very much is relevant. One should understand context. It's a big part of evaluating value and potential in fantasy predictions.