Dynasty League Football Forum

Are there even 88 receivers in the nfl with enough targets to make an accurate determination of their play?

Interesting bit in Landry, and the impact of his tag on Miami's cap- http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Ba ... l-barnwell

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 6:55 pm Are there even 88 receivers in the nfl with enough targets to make an accurate determination of their play?

I guess so. I don't subscribe so I can't see the list.

(USA Today Fantasy Sports) The Tennessee Titans could trade for Miami Dolphins WR Jarvis Landry, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com.

I don't know how I would feel about him going to the Titans. Value drops a bit, I would think.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 5:09 pm

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:48 pm

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Feb 23, 2018 8:20 am

Just to be clear here. You're admitting you don't watch either guy, right?

i have lol but

factual data > eye test

Ok good, just checking. I think the eye test = factual data in terms of importance.

I'd also argue that Landry is an extremely valuable player to have and far superior to Stills, who Pro Football Focus graded as their WR88.

if you actually think the "eye test" is equally telling of a player's efficiency than the literal numbers then i can't help you.

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:38 pm
a 4 year deal worth $32 million with $19 million guarantees is not easy to bail out of.

Jarvis Landry had a +2.7 production premium (#45) with 6.1 YPT (#88) while Kenny Stills had a +14.0 (#19) production premium with 8.1 YPT (#38)

Not to mention Stills had a slightly higher yards of separation when targeted.

Stills is clearly the more efficient player, fantasy points don't define the skill of a player.

Numbers can be deceiving. Would the nearly 60 more targets have anything to do with that disparity? Also YPC doesn't give an accurate representation of how valuable a player is to his team. Give me the guy catching 100+ balls and picking up 60 first downs, over the guy running 9 routes on 70% of his snaps, and inflating the YPC disparity against the guy who caught over TWICE as many passes. Keep the analytics in baseball. Eye test is huge in football, and if you ran a poll here, 99% of forum goers are taking Landry in fantasy and real life

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:57 amif you actually think the "eye test" is equally telling of a player's efficiency than the literal numbers then i can't help you.

To dismiss the eye test is obnoxious.
Numbers are subjective and not concrete in Football as there are far too many other variables.
You can find numbers to literally support or condemn every single player.

If you actually think the numbers tell everything, then I can't help you.

Phaded wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:52 am

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:57 amif you actually think the "eye test" is equally telling of a player's efficiency than the literal numbers then i can't help you.

To dismiss the eye test is obnoxious.
Numbers are subjective and not concrete in Football as there are far too many other variables.
You can find numbers to literally support or condemn every single player.

If you actually think the numbers tell everything, then I can't help you.

'facts are subjective' LOL

Eye test over numbers easily. It helps to use combo of each obviously. Huge mistake to rely too heavily on numbers.

Relying solely on statistics without seeing how they are produced is totally meaningless for predicting future performances. There are far too many variables in the game of football to make sense of the numbers when taken out of contexts.

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 9:38 am

Phaded wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:52 am

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 12:57 amif you actually think the "eye test" is equally telling of a player's efficiency than the literal numbers then i can't help you.

To dismiss the eye test is obnoxious.
Numbers are subjective and not concrete in Football as there are far too many other variables.
You can find numbers to literally support or condemn every single player.

If you actually think the numbers tell everything, then I can't help you.

'facts are subjective' LOL

The 'eye test' is significantly more telling than raw numbers as long as you have a basic understanding of football analysis

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:38 pm

pierson242 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:43 pm

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:57 am

there is a reason the dolphins gave Kenny Stills a 4 year extension and reluctantly franchise tagged Jarvis Landry after trying to trade him for the last year.

At a cheap price that they can easily bail out of! Landry is a stud aside from Stills getting a contract you have no reasoning that hes better. Landry is a ppr monster and has a great YAC he is very efficient and reliable. Pro Bowler, the whole 9 yards. Parker and Stills are jags

a 4 year deal worth $32 million with $19 million guarantees is not easy to bail out of.

Jarvis Landry had a +2.7 production premium (#45) with 6.1 YPT (#88) while Kenny Stills had a +14.0 (#19) production premium with 8.1 YPT (#38)

Not to mention Stills had a slightly higher yards of separation when targeted.

Stills is clearly the more efficient player, fantasy points don't define the skill of a player.

Challenge. They have very different roles. I would also guess Landry is far more involved in many facets of the offense while Stills
Is a situational player. Don’t talk yourself into false realities.

cornhole2412 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:19 am

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:38 pm
a 4 year deal worth $32 million with $19 million guarantees is not easy to bail out of.

Jarvis Landry had a +2.7 production premium (#45) with 6.1 YPT (#88) while Kenny Stills had a +14.0 (#19) production premium with 8.1 YPT (#38)

Not to mention Stills had a slightly higher yards of separation when targeted.

Stills is clearly the more efficient player, fantasy points don't define the skill of a player.

Numbers can be deceiving. Would the nearly 60 more targets have anything to do with that disparity? Also YPC doesn't give an accurate representation of how valuable a player is to his team. Give me the guy catching 100+ balls and picking up 60 first downs, over the guy running 9 routes on 70% of his snaps, and inflating the YPC disparity against the guy who caught over TWICE as many passes. Keep the analytics in baseball. Eye test is huge in football, and if you ran a poll here, 99% of forum goers are taking Landry in fantasy and real life

there is a large difference between yards per target and yards per catch. I never used yards per catch in any of my arguments.

yet even more statistical evidence proving Jarvis Landry is criminally overrated. he literally picks up a first down on 15% of his third down receptions.

But i guess this is irrelevant because your subjective and biased 'eye test' keeps telling you that Jarvis Landry is good.

And saying 'keep the analytics in baseball' I'll have you know that the Eagles won the super bowl by embracing analytics. https://thepowerrank.com/2018/02/13/phi ... uper-bowl/

Question - I own Corey Davis and Landry and am absolutely TERRIFIED at the prospect of him being traded to the Titans... although Landry is a slot WR by nature and Corey an outside: best case scenario they have a competent QB but one that can unlikely support the fantasy stock of both. My MFL has been blowing up for offers for C. Davis for months, the most recent of which was Joe Mixon and Njoku for C. Davis.

I know we can't go off rumors, but what to do I do? Pray they don't trade him to TEN and hang on to C. Davis, or overpay by my calculations a Njoku (Mixon = Davis presumption)? As always, thanks in advance.

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Sun Feb 25, 2018 12:02 am

cornhole2412 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 24, 2018 6:19 am

benpickering44 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:38 pm
a 4 year deal worth $32 million with $19 million guarantees is not easy to bail out of.

Jarvis Landry had a +2.7 production premium (#45) with 6.1 YPT (#88) while Kenny Stills had a +14.0 (#19) production premium with 8.1 YPT (#38)

Not to mention Stills had a slightly higher yards of separation when targeted.

Stills is clearly the more efficient player, fantasy points don't define the skill of a player.

Numbers can be deceiving. Would the nearly 60 more targets have anything to do with that disparity? Also YPC doesn't give an accurate representation of how valuable a player is to his team. Give me the guy catching 100+ balls and picking up 60 first downs, over the guy running 9 routes on 70% of his snaps, and inflating the YPC disparity against the guy who caught over TWICE as many passes. Keep the analytics in baseball. Eye test is huge in football, and if you ran a poll here, 99% of forum goers are taking Landry in fantasy and real life

there is a large difference between yards per target and yards per catch. I never used yards per catch in any of my arguments.

yet even more statistical evidence proving Jarvis Landry is criminally overrated. he literally picks up a first down on 15% of his third down receptions.

But i guess this is irrelevant because your subjective and biased 'eye test' keeps telling you that Jarvis Landry is good.

And saying 'keep the analytics in baseball' I'll have you know that the Eagles won the super bowl by embracing analytics. https://thepowerrank.com/2018/02/13/phi ... uper-bowl/

Where did you pull that 3rd down stat from, because it's pretty blatantly wrong? He made the necessary yards on 17 of the 37 times he was targetted on third down. You can look this up by quickly glossing over his receiving plays in PFR.

As for YPT, it's better than YPR, but it's still not something you can use as the sole determinant of who the better receiver is. Otherwise, you're arguing that Jakeem Grant was the best receiver on the team.