Dynasty League Football Forum

Recently, I posted a series of trades on a facebook group for a Dynasty Football brand with ~1000 members. Most involved the same player--DeAndre Hopkins. I posted multiple times as I found the feedback to be... a bit odd. I decided to post another trade, and also run a poll on Twitter--I found the differences in results to be significant. Take a look:

Trade: Nuk for a bunch of stuff

Facebook group: 72% for the Nuk side

Twitter: 56% for the Nuk side.

I personally believe the Facebook group is the outlier here, yet this doesn't stop me from feeling like I'm taking crazy pills when I provide my opinion on trades (including my own).

So my question is this: how do you filter groupthink bias, if you use it to help you come to conviction about a trade?

I don't know anything about either groups you're talking about, but give me Nuk easily. Diggs is going to be extra hyped after the game winner, but he's not close to Nuk.

So is your question “does the masses impact your opinion”?

If so, i like who i like but if im iffy then or course ill use the masses as a tiebreaker(or at least take it into consideration)

But i will try to use it as ammo towards the other side in a trade if possible, kinda the same with calculators, i dont like thembut if i know someone does, ill def hit themwith calc value

It may also be a polling issue. In your FB group you have dynasty people being polled. In your twitter poll, once a tweet gets retweeted you never know who's voting. I know there are differences between twitter, reddit, and DLF forums and I'm glad there are, because it allows you to find the value gaps so that you can make deals.

As for me, opinions are just data points and a way to see things from perspectives I haven't thought of. I tend not to put much value on random polls other than to see who's a hot name to figure out who's over or under valued.

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:38 am I don't know anything about either groups you're talking about, but give me Nuk easily. Diggs is going to be extra hyped after the game winner, but he's not close to Nuk.

But that wasn't my question

Here are three things I try to remember whenever I see ADP or trade polls:

1. It's a great tool to understand how the consensus values a player or pick.
2. If there are arguments made that I don't agree with, those are great things to research further. I've often been willing to change my opinion on a player based on information I'd never considered.
3. That said, you also need to understand that the consensus could very well be wrong, and if you've done additional research and still disagree, then you should go buy/sell said player based on whether your valuation is significantly higher or lower.

Twitter is usually scattered to thousands of users due to rebroadcasts through DynastyTrades etc. Try to make a list or group to only say DLFers and other Dynasty oriented players because Twitter is mostly look and click. Someone sees the name Nuk and Diggs and doesn't really read into what is put.

I believe atleast on Twitter that is a good way of weeding out the group think. You can potentionally get people that will comment below and you can ask to not retweet. You might only get a max of 100 votes but atleast you are getting a better feel from people that actually care.

I try to stay as objective as I can and not have a "favorite bias". I like referring to rankings and ADP as a base but use my judgment to find players over or under valued- gaining value is usually what I'm trying to do on most trades when not addressing team need.

I will have someone grade my paper but I never ask someone to do my work ! meaning .
I will ask people who's opinions I respect after the fact but never do a poll prior to making a deal I like as I do not wish my thinking clouded prior to pulling the trigger.

In summation trust yourself more than anyone else !

heyfeefellskee wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:49 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:38 am I don't know anything about either groups you're talking about, but give me Nuk easily. Diggs is going to be extra hyped after the game winner, but he's not close to Nuk.

But that wasn't my question

But you're asking a question that includes some random backstory that is basically irrelevant to the question.

Trust your own judgment and assessments, but ask for opinions on consensus to see what you can fetch on the open market. Meaning you should have your favorite players that you look to target and then by polling people, you can find when said players are being over/undervalued. Consensus helps to determine when you should time your trades and also assists in determining the downside risk if your evaluations are off.

In this case, consensus is telling you Diggs is probably overrated given recency bias of his catch. That these polls are even close suggests this. Not the time to buy.

The mentality is much like the stock market, it's all fear and greed. Fear that you're giving up something great, greed that you need to hold onto something great no matter what is offered.

I remember when I had Larry Fitzgerald, and he was the consensus #1 overall pick in dynasty leagues. I had two choices: Trade him for a serious bounty, or hold him until his value dropped. His value had literally nowhere to go but down. It's the same with anyone who is the consensus #1 - sometimes it makes sense to hold onto them and squeeze value out of them for a few years, but in hindsight, they're all worth getting rid of at 1.1 for future draft picks, younger players, etc.

My league is a rough one for trades; lots of owners label certain players "untradeable" and one guy won't even respond to offers. I understand as it's very hard to let go a great young player when you own him, and they are equally hard to trade for.

I think with the way player values spike and crash you're almost always better off trading someone away for a bounty than waiting, even if sometimes you trade away AB or Bell or whoever. One owner told me he wouldn't trade Shaun Alexander for anything or anyone. Alexander was 28 and had just scored 27 rushing TDs on 1880 yards. How did he do over the next few seasons?

896/7
716/4
24/0

That was absolutely when he should have traded him, and it was also when he just couldn't bring himself to fathom the idea.

^^^^ Not an indictment as I do not know this guy , I seek out guys with this exact mentality , the chronic rebuilders I call them . It seems they fear losing value more than winning games . When a guy is at his apex and you trade him for a bounty ( results will vary) for me I want proven week winners far above a bunch of picks or donte moncrief types . Just an example of a guy who has been valued far above his production because of that scarce valuable unicorn status he possesses - POTENTIAL - my favorite quote and I am not sure if he was 1st but brian billick said
"your potential is going to get me fired" . Obviously roster construction matters but trading great players for a bunch of picks of potential great players is not my idea of building a powerhouse. I have ventured past many managers who are always rebuilding /chasing potential but never compete . I ate a couple shares of adrian peterson and megatron and even beast mode but what I didn't do was bail too early and watch those bonafide studs lighting it up on other rosters in leagues I owned those guys.
What puzzles me is do they use rebuilding as an excuse for not competing ?
Do they love rebuilding more than winning ?
just curious

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:20 pm

heyfeefellskee wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:49 am

dynastyninja wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:38 am I don't know anything about either groups you're talking about, but give me Nuk easily. Diggs is going to be extra hyped after the game winner, but he's not close to Nuk.

But that wasn't my question

But you're asking a question that includes some random backstory that is basically irrelevant to the question.

ok.

clarion contrarion wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:33 pm ^^^^ Not an indictment as I do not know this guy , I seek out guys with this exact mentality , the chronic rebuilders I call them . It seems they fear losing value more than winning games . When a guy is at his apex and you trade him for a bounty ( results will vary) for me I want proven week winners far above a bunch of picks or donte moncrief types . Just an example of a guy who has been valued far above his production because of that scarce valuable unicorn status he possesses - POTENTIAL - my favorite quote and I am not sure if he was 1st but brian billick said
"your potential is going to get me fired" . Obviously roster construction matters but trading great players for a bunch of picks of potential great players is not my idea of building a powerhouse. I have ventured past many managers who are always rebuilding /chasing potential but never compete . I ate a couple shares of adrian peterson and megatron and even beast mode but what I didn't do was bail too early and watch those bonafide studs lighting it up on other rosters in leagues I owned those guys.
What puzzles me is do they use rebuilding as an excuse for not competing ?
Do they love rebuilding more than winning ?
just curious

I think I am guilty of this in one league. 16 team superflex/.5 ppr/IDP...I have been finishing in the bottom half of the league since startup a few years ago. Drafted young in the startup and have had some unfortunate luck along the way with injuries. Haven’t made the playoffs yet, but am on my way (or so I keep telling myself). I’m not purposely failing (not consciously anyway) but Lady Luck would rather pull the old Tonya Harding on my QBs through the years (first Bridgewater and now Wentz).

But to my point, I really enjoy a good rebuild. I also get impatient watching my young guys develop. Which leads me to sell those 2nd or 3rd year players for draft picks...completing the constant rebuild cycle. I need someone to smack me upside the head and talk me off the ledge.

I completely understand your point about riding vets to the promised land...even until the wheels fall off. And I definitely get that the point of fantasy is to win the league. I think people (including myself) get so wrapped up in valuing young players and picks that we miss the forest for the trees and are ever building for the championship...but never reach that point.