Postby lukkynumber13 » Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:21 pm
StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Mon Oct 23, 2017 4:07 pm
Granted I've gone on record in two separate leagues now of not being a Watkins guy so if it seems like there's bias in this post that wasn't my intention, I try to be as objective as possible when evaluating players.
My biggest issue with Watkins has been that people look at his season totals and his "on pace" numbers and don't pay attention to his week-by-week numbers. This is a receiver who people routinely pay WR1 prices for (and more in some cases) and either drafted or acquired him in order to start him week-in and week-out in a typical 12-team .5PPR 2RB/2WR/Flex league.
These are his career numbers for every week in a .5PPR league, setting a benchmark at 10 points as "startable" and anything at or above 10 points will be bolded (games where he didn't play or accrue targets are omitted):
-2014
4.6,
21.7, 2.9,
11,
12.2, 3.7,
28.7,
23.2, 4.7, 5.2, 5, 2.6,
14.2, 3.3,
15, 7.9
-2015
0,
15, 4.4,
12.8,
26.8, 2.9, 5.4,
30.8,
18.4,
16.9,
25.6,
10.9,
19.1
-2016
6.3, 3, 9.5, 5.3,
13.4, 1.5,
24.9, 5.1
-2017 (through week 7)
8.3, 4,
25.6, 2.2, 0, 1.6, 5.7
That's 19 "startable" weeks out of a possible 44 games played, just over 43% of the time. If you don't like my arbitrary score of 10 you could lower it to 8 and that would still only be 21 out of 44 weeks, 47.7% of the time. Talented or not, athletic or not, targeted or not, Watkins is putting up subpar performances >50% of the time for your fantasy team. As a guy who is still (or was until the past couple weeks) widely viewed as "if he plays, you start him" he is losing you more weeks than he's winning.
Great post, thank you for the work that went into it!
I actually think you and I are on the same page, even though I would classify myself as a "Sammy truther"
Ever since week 1 of last year, you're absolutely right he's been very up & down and mostly down. That's seriously concerning to me.
But his first 2 years in the league, he was mostly really good and that's not even taking into account the fact that he was a rookie (and then Sophomore) doing what he was doing! That's what gives me hope. This isn't Devante Parker, where he's flashed a couple games and a few plays but he's never consistently won you weeks. Sammy HAS put it all together, but unfortunately his career arc has gone the wrong way since 2015.
TEAM A - 12T (22 R/U, 20 R/U, 19 R/U, 18 Champ, 17 R/U)
HERBERT, J Daniels, Baker
BIJAN/KAMARA/MIXON, A Jones
HILL/AJB/G WILSON/D ADAMS/DK, Pittman, Flowers, Evans, Pearsoll
KITTLE
/
TEAM B - 16T, SF, TEP (22 R/U)
HURTS/COUSINS, D Jones
JT/JACOBS, Mostert, Gus E
HILL/MCLAURIN/DEEBO
LAPORTA/KELCE/KITTLE
/
TEAM C - 32T (2 copy), 1QB, TEP
HERBERT, J Daniels, Tua, Minshew
KAMARA, J Brooks, Monty, Mattison
AIYUK/DK/GODWIN/K ALLEN, Kirk, J Meyers
KITTLE, Goedert, Higbee
/
TEAM D - 14T, 1QB
MAHOMES, Goff
BIJAN/BREECE, Pollard
CHASE/G WILSON/AIYUK/DJM, Nabers, Pittman, Diggs, Polk
KITTLE, Goedert
/
TEAM E - 14T, SF, 2TE
MAHOMES/T-LAW, Carr
BIJAN/CMC/SAQUON/BREECE, Pollard
HILL/AIYUK/EVANS/GODWIN, Hollywood
MCBRIDE/ENGRAM, Goedert
/
TEAM F - 12T, SF & TEP
HERBERT/TUA, Kyler
BIJAN/MIXON, Spears, J Warren
JJ/G WILSON/WADDLE/OLAVE, Godwin, J Reed
LAPORTA