Re: The problem with Amari
Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:37 am
Thank you so much for this! A lot of energy and wisdom went into this post, and I appreciate it. Some very valid points all around.Seventy5 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:32 am Being a lifelong Raider fan who has lived in the Bay Area my entire life, there are two things that truly baffled me in recent years: 1. The dynasty community being so high on Latavius Murray when the team was always vocal to local media about not truly believing in him (but this stuff very rarely made it's way to the mainstream media. Even all the Raider homers on here kept telling people to pump the brakes on Latavius), and 2. Amari Cooper already going top five in start ups.
I'll start off by saying I think Cooper has top five start up POTENTIAL, but I wouldn't draft him there (yet). Look at the big picture like this:
-Cooper's redraft ADP was late 2nd-early 3rd, so right off the bat we already have a large difference between where people are valuing him long-term and what people are actually expecting short-term. I'd imagine anybody investing top 4-8 overall start up resources in him (whether it be drafting or trading for him) is doing so expecting him to perform at that level, which would be a top 2-4 overall WR. BUT, in redraft, Julio, OBJ, Evans, Jordy, AJG, Cooks, MThomas, and Hilton were almost always going ahead of him (8 WRs) and in some leagues Dez, Baldwin, DeAndre as well (so let's say redrafters were investing at roughly WR10-14 prices). Where did Amari finish in WR standings week 1?...WR12...and then it's difficult to really put much weight into the distribution of the raiders passing game when you consider context: 45-20 score; a few turnovers set them off for quick and easy scores; Richard had few long plays that put the team in position to score; despite the score, Carr didn't exactly light up the stat sheet - he only threw for 230 yards. To sum this part up...I'd say he's performing about exactly where most were expecting him to this year - a low end WR1 - high end WR2 with upside for more some weeks.
-Crabtree is drastically undervalued, and has been for a while. I think the combination of his bad situation in SF and his attitude rubbing people the wrong way decreased his value. I think too often people take fantasy production and use that to determine talent, but that is only a piece of the puzzle, and Crabtree has always been more talented than his stats would suggest (similar to Fitzgerald during some of his down years...people disliking DeSean Jackson's personality...Ryan Mathews injuries making people forget the guy was actually pretty darn good when healthy...etc).
When you look at the first round of dynasty drafts, I think the biggest reason ends up going so high comes down to age: owners are faced with trying to select one player to build their franchise around for the next decade, and there aren't many options under 25. I'd imagine some people are looking at the options like:
1.01: Odell BeckhamJ Jr: proven production and only 24 years old. Slight off-field concerns personality wise, but a safe investment otherwise.
1.02: Mike Evans: Proven production, young QB, only 24 years old.
1.03: David Johnson: Maybe the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football right now, only 25 years old.
1.04: Le'Veon Bell: Proven production, only 25 years old, few long-term concerns with the contract + weed tests.
1.05: Amari Cooper: Two solid seasons to start his career, only 23 years old.
When you look at the other options like this, it's not surprising Cooper is going so high:
1.06: Antonio Brown: STUD, but, he's 29 years old, which is close to 30, which is close to old...ageists will drop his value soon
1.07: Julio Jones: STUD, but, he's 28 years old, which is two years from 30, which is close to being close to being old for dynasty players
1.08: Ezekiel Elliot: off-field concerns, suspensions looming, and he's a running back...which most dynasty drafters have tried to avoid
1.09: AJ Green: STUD, but, he's 28-29 years old, and doesn't have an elite QB + Ross/Eifert/Mixon competition
1.10: Michael Thomas: Probably a safer short-term investment production wise, but tied to Brees, so people don't know what to expect 2+ years from now (maybe they're afraid of a value drop similar to DT's after Peyton left?)
1.11: Melvin Gordon: Running back, some question if his talent matches last years production
1.12: Devontae Freeman: Running back, some question if he is THAT much better than Coleman, Shanahan left
2.01: Dez Bryant: 28, offense is built to run
2.02: TY Hilton, safe, young QB, not young/not old at 27...but people still remember his early career inconsistencies
2.03: Brandon Cooks: Tied to Brady, uncertainty 2+ years from now like Thomas, not sure how he'll fit new offense
2.04: DeAndre Hopkins: Down year, uncertainty at QB
2.05: Todd Gurley: Running back, hasn't lived up to sky-high expectations
2.06: Rob Gronkowski: injuries with a stress on plural, uncertainty at QB 2+ years from now
2.07: Sammy Watkins: injuries, traded to what many viewed as a terrible situation
2.08: Corey Davis hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.09: Leonard Fournette: hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.10: Keenan Allen: Injuries + Rivers isn't exactly young + Hunter Henry/Mike Williams competition for targets
2.12: Jordan Howard: JAG imo. He'll produce until someone with more talent comes along.
After that we get into Ajayi (RB/bad knee?), Baldwin (producing above talent level?), ARob (Bortles), McCaffery, Jordy (32), Dalvin, Alshon, QBs, Diggs, Kelce, Demaryius (age/QB), LeSean (age/RB/bad team), Landry/Parker, Martavis (puff puff sit out a year), Pryor (has played WR in what...18 games?), Tyreek (gimmick? or for real?)
So really....unless you want to start your franchise with a 28-30 year WR, an RB, or an unproven rookie....Cooper all of a sudden becomes an attractive option at 1.04 even though redrafters are expecting him to produce at a 2.10-3.02 rate. IMO, it comes down to expectation vs reality. The reality is the masses were valuing him at WR8-14 for this year and he started the season off producing close to that...but most Dynasty owners are hoping for WR1-4 overall production and dismissing Crabtree, even though he has been the value play for two years now.
Having said all of that, if I were doing a start up draft and I wanted to play it safe and take someone I felt wouldn't bust or lose half their value two years from now...Cooper would be towards the top of my list of options. I just wouldn't pay those prices in an established league where I already had a strong/competitive core built.