Dynasty League Football Forum

dawgs4life wrote: ↑Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:21 pm I’ve been buying cheap shares of Dixon and Allen this yr for back of roster stashes. Dixon because I believe in his talent, and Allen because the opportunity to leave this mess of a situation next year. If I’m not mistaken he is a FA after this year.

smallxl wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 6:10 pm Shocked people would pay an early 2nd

3rd round for me

ninotoreS wrote: ↑Sat Jun 30, 2018 11:03 am

Sterling Archer wrote: ↑Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:08 pm https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/p ... nfl-season
Meh, they were average at best.

I cite PFF all the time here, and with good reason. But here I will take Football Outsiders' analytics over PFF's anonymous tape grading.

I will explain why.

A strong Adjusted Line Yards score practically guarantees a strong run-game almost regardless of RB talent, and Adjusted Sack Rate is more important than the gross number of pressures, which PFF is subjectively judging and counting.

Now, for inference:

Note how surprisingly good Collins was last year, and note how that correlates with FO's ALY analytic. In PFF's case, they gave Collins the third best RB grade in the NFL last year, but then oppose that with their Ravens OL ranking.

Thus, FO's analytic judgment here is more consistent and correlative with the empirical reality than PFF's.

And even if PFF's dissonant rankings are more truthful, then that just makes Collins '17 season more impressive.

And they lost a starter or two in free agency, IIRC.

This is a good point, if true (is it? you make it sound uncertain, and I haven't checked). However, the line is also getting Marshal Yanda back, which is enormous.

As for Collins and his 235 touches, they valued him so highly that they gave him a... 1 year $630k deal. Dixon is getting paid more than that on his rookie deal.

Meaningless. You're missing that Collins was an exclusive rights free agent. He had no bargaining power at all. Nothing could stop Baltimore from underpaying Collins, so that's what they did, and saved money.

This only proves that the Ravens front-office isn't charitable. It proves nothing regarding the coaching staff's current assessment of Collins.

joeya2001 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 02, 2018 9:28 pm is he worth a roster spot in a 10 team league?

_yeti wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2017 7:22 am I voted 3rd round or later. The fact that 38% of votes say he is worth a 1st is mind boggling to me. This is like Rawls all over again, except that I prefer Rawls to Dixon.

Comparing this to the Jeremy Hill poll that is currently running, I can't believe the disparity in favor of Dixon. I know Hill hasn't lived up to the original promise he showed his first year and has plenty of knocks of his own but he has still produced a great deal more than Dixon and is better when it comes to my eye test. I would take most of the 2nd or 3rd tier rookie backs over Dixon. This isn't because I don't know their hit/miss rate, it's because Dixon is already a miss in my opinion. Maybe he gives some 2017 production due to situation and lack of competition but 2017 is it. Not worth the capital of a 1st or 2nd and their potential value, even considering their potential to miss.

_yeti wrote: ↑Mon Jul 16, 2018 11:10 am

_yeti wrote: ↑Thu May 04, 2017 7:22 am I voted 3rd round or later. The fact that 38% of votes say he is worth a 1st is mind boggling to me. This is like Rawls all over again, except that I prefer Rawls to Dixon.

Comparing this to the Jeremy Hill poll that is currently running, I can't believe the disparity in favor of Dixon. I know Hill hasn't lived up to the original promise he showed his first year and has plenty of knocks of his own but he has still produced a great deal more than Dixon and is better when it comes to my eye test. I would take most of the 2nd or 3rd tier rookie backs over Dixon. This isn't because I don't know their hit/miss rate, it's because Dixon is already a miss in my opinion. Maybe he gives some 2017 production due to situation and lack of competition but 2017 is it. Not worth the capital of a 1st or 2nd and their potential value, even considering their potential to miss.

Since I saw this bumped, brag bump
I have a good hit rate with RBs but no one ever listens to me (this was after I fought half the forum to say Rawls was a backup)
Now, some might point to my mention of Hill and say, ah but Hill is chopped liver! No sir I say, decent chance Bill B uses Hill as the thumper this year! Just drafted him in a startup in the late rounds

jcc6fd wrote: ↑Tue May 02, 2017 11:30 am 2017 was a deeper overall class by most analysts standards. More RBs were taken in early rounds this year because they were worthy of the picks. If Dixon or Booker were day 2 talents in an RB weak class they would have been picked on day two instead of compensatory round 4 picks.

I don't understand why anyone would try to argue the 2016 RB draft class was close to 2017. There's no argument to stand on here. Additionally if I can get a day 2 back in this draft with a high chance to start and play 3 downs he has to be worth more than an underperforming sophomore with less draft pedigree and a 4 game ban. He's just not worth a first as he was a late first last year in a bad offensive class, hasn't improved his stock, and we're comparing to a clearly superior class.

An early second round valuation is fair here. I can't justify anything more and he's probably closer to a mid-second within my more subjective personal rankings.