Dynasty League Football Forum

MEuRaH wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:11 pm

HEADBANGER wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:26 am Thanks man, gonna try to figure this out later (seriously cause I didn't see how to use it properly yet...)

Looks very similar to the value chart posted by DLF in 2014 and 2015. The person that created it said he would post one soon after the draft as each draft class is different so their values would be as well.

I know exactly which one you are talking about. (https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2014/ ... lue-chart/)

I tried to use that one prior, which led me to some terrible trades and set my team back a good year in my old RDFL league. The problem with that chart is that he made his chart values relative to startup prices for every single rookie. Players like TRich would therefore skew the results HEAVILY IN FAVOR of the 1.01 since he was drafted so early in a startup. Basically, his chart is created by using the perceived value of each rookie PRIOR TO BEING DRAFTED! That's a huge mistake imo. It's basically allowing pre-draft hype to dictate the actual value. Doing so makes the 1.01 pick = 1.03, 1.04, and 2.06. Someone trading up to the 1.01 will lose value to the tune of a 1.05 selection (based on my chart). So not only would someone lose the Expected Value of a 1.03 & 1.04 pick, but they would essentially be losing out on expected value equivalent to the tune of a 1.05 as well.

Having the 1.01 gives you a ~70% to improve your team, with ~41% chance of landing a stud. But having those 3 picks gives you a whopping ~96% chance to improve your team, with a crazy ~74% of landing at least 1 stud. HUGE DIFFERENCE, and it can be a nightmare scenario if the new owner of the 1.01 whiffs.

I made my chart relative to expected values of Studs, Starters, and Role Players based on prior drafts. My chart it takes into account the success or fail rate of each pick, which I think is the best predictor of future results. Not every 1.01 selection will be a stud, and I think it's value should reflect that. Same with 1.02, 1.03, and so on.

I also studied statistics in college. My thesis was on poker bluff stats, something which I used to become a pro for a short time, and it's kind of the same thing: You can't predict what your opponent will do NOR what the outcome will eventually be, so the best you can do is use past results as a predictor.

My table gives fair and accurate ratings on each pick based on historical results. The DLF chart gives you inflated values based on rookie perception and draft hype. Both charts can be useful... use the DLF one to inflate high picks in order to bargain with other owners to trade down, use mine for fair/accurate info to trade up.

Triton85 wrote: ↑Thu May 24, 2018 6:50 am Looks fantastic, only thing I wish it had was some way to value future picks. Problem is they are such unknowns