Dynasty League Football Forum

MEuRaH wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:43 am

kamihamster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:45 am (1) In your analysis of each draft class, did you find any stand out classes?

(2) The '14 draft is talked about as one of the best ever, but did your analysis show that statistically? If so, how much better?

(3) Would you be able to adapt your chart to take into account bad, average, and good rookie crops?

Damn, great questions.

If each "stud" is 7 points, "starter" is 3, and "role player" is 1, the median score would be a 33, and that score perfectly divides the upper from the lower classes. On average, each draft class has 2.5 studs, a little over 4 starters, and 6 role players.

(1 & 2) The 2014 class definitely stands out. Watkins, Evans, Cooks, Beckham, and Allen Robinson headline that class. Then you still have Jordan Matthews, KB, Hyde, Freeman, Moncrief, Derek Carr... the list can go on and on. It's a crazy class and it dominates any other class with a whopping score of 71. The next closest is the 2010 class with a 38.

(1) Another class stands out in the wrong way. The 2009 draft class was terrible with a score of 17. That class was HORRID. LeSean McCoy was the lone stud, with Michael Crabtree helping out, and those guys had an ADP of 5 & 6. After that.... not much to see. TY Hilton was the ONLY stud ever drafted, on average, in the 4th round.

(3) This is a tough one. How does one assess the strength of an unknown draft class vs the average? I suppose I could make a "strength" setting that would increase or decrease the likelihood of studs. I guess it would be easy enough to do, and it would be opinion-based on the user's preferences. The current setup is based on the expected value based on 10 years of data, but doesn't take into account the possibility of a strong (2014) or weak (2009) draft class.... and going into those classes, we all knew how strong and weak they were.

Good feedback. This is something I can work on later today.

kamihamster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:16 pmIt would defiantly be opinion-based the same way stud/starter/role player values are opinion-based

kamihamster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:26 pm continuing on. this just popped in my head. How many standard deviations off was the '14 and '09 class? Perhaps you can just have a standard deviation input where you can adjust based of class comparisons?

example... this 17 class is not as good as the 14 class but close.... the 14 class has a STDEV of +8... so I'll input +6

norsberry wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:02 pm Love this draft pick trade chart. Thanks MEuRaH! I have been wanting to make one of these myself but just never gotten around to it.

One thing that I would suggest adding to it is just a simple lookup function. That way you can just type in the picks that you are giving and the ones you are receiving. Makes it much easier than having to look for a number that corresponds with a draft pick every single time! Plus I like to throw my draft picks in there and get a general idea of what I could expect to get for them if I packaged them together.

Here is what my trade calculator part looks like:

MEuRaH wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 12:58 pm TL/DR at the bottom.

I hate all draft pick charts. Too many people live by them without knowing the math behind creating them. Jimmy Johnson..... who isn't known for being the brightest bulb in the box..... created one that, for some reason, the entire NFL lives by. If you look up success rates vs draft picks, you will eventually find a link based on previous NFL Draft Data that shows JJs chart is actually flawed. High picks are valued too highly, and 2nd rounders aren't valued nearly enough, etc. Too many current draft pick charts are based on that first chart that Jerry Jones made.

This motivated me to make my own. I was a double major in college (statistics & mathematics), and went on to blah blah blah..... I listed my credentials here originally but who the bleep cares. Just know that I take this seriously. I had a ton of time to research the past few weeks, and I failed and gave up about 5 times before finally LOVING what I'm about to present to you.

apbohannon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:09 amA question more related to your research of winning dynasty teams over that span, did you find a trend as to what position is of more importance in relation to studs, starters, and role players? Most winning teams had role playing RB's, starter quality QB's, and Stub RB's and TE's? This would be really helpful information, especially when determining the value of a pick.

dlf_jules wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:59 am Nice work. I've made a few draft pick charts. This is better than any of them.

I'd like to link to the spreadsheet on Twitter. Would you like me to include your Twitter handle and/or a link to the forum post?

dlf_jaronf wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 6:02 amThis is awesome, thanks for sharing it!

MEuRaH wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:07 am

apbohannon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2017 11:09 amA question more related to your research of winning dynasty teams over that span, did you find a trend as to what position is of more importance in relation to studs, starters, and role players? Most winning teams had role playing RB's, starter quality QB's, and Stub RB's and TE's? This would be really helpful information, especially when determining the value of a pick.

Great question, and it was actually the reason I started the research in the first place. I was very shocked to find that it didn't really matter what stud you had or where on your roster he was. QB, RB, WR, TE.... doesn't matter. I tried to find a common player, and again it didn't matter. The exception was when Peyton Manning had that amazing year with the Broncos, and Tom Brady before that with his record season with Moss. Those 2 propelled their teams to the top, but they also didn't do so until they were well into their 30s, they had some amazing targets to work with, and it was only for that 1 season.

Isn't Matt Ryan 30 now?... hmm...

Other than that, nothing to report.

Bruiser wrote: ↑Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:30 pm This chart would be applied in hold forever dynasty leagues, correct? You can't necessarily use it in contract leagues where your draft selections have a (4 year) contract, am I right?