Re: Success Profiler Study
Posted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:59 pm
Man, this class looks terrible when you use those parameters for hit rates and apply them to the class as best as possible
The Pre-draft scoring it is actually quite an impressive at the TE position (some of those hit rates will spike with 1st and 2nd round scores added in), and the RB shows very well in the elite tier but not much in the 2nd tier where the expected depth is supposed to be... and yes, the WR portion is underwhelming with no great scores.HawkeyeState wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:59 pm Man, this class looks terrible when you use those parameters for hit rates and apply them to the class as best as possible
That said an important but sobering aspect to remember is that the average hit for a RB is only 26.7, WR is 28.4, and TE is 30.5.
Currently we have 6 TE's sitting at a 50% hit rate, and 3-4 are likely to jump into the 83.3% range post NFL draft. We have 2 RB's in the 80.0 hit range and we have to go back to the insane RB class of 2008 to find a class with even 1 RB that scored that well pre-draft (guys like Elliot and Gurley were just short of the top tier pre-draft). Having only 1 RB in tier 2 (65.7% hit rate) is, however, very disappointing, with the hype of this class I would have expected 4-6 similar to the 2011-13 drafts. Post draft, I would guess that the total in this 2nd tier group will rise, as guys like Fournette, Cook, and Kamara are all consistently considered 1st-2nd round picks.
All the other guys that "disappointed" so far fall in the 27.3-20.5% range (Hunt, Conner, Perine, etc.), which is basically an "average" hit rate range. Dayes was also rumored to be nursing injuries during his runs so his results are somewhat in question, but his score is so low it can't help but be viewed negatively. Those guys don't have great attributes, or even multiple positive attributes, but they also are not huge risks based on average hit rates... it's just that a hit rate in the 20% range looks pretty bad.
Maybe this should be more of an eye opener at the low hit rates of all rookies, because looking at previous years this year is pretty normal. Last year, just like this year, we had only 3 player scored above average at RB in the pre-draft scoring, 4 players the year before that, then 3, then 2 - 3 this year. TE's are similar with the numbers being 2, 4, 3, 5 (that last year was the Eifert, Kelce, Ertz draft which was very good at TE) - 6 this year. WRs have more opportunities to be hits, so their total potential quantities are larger and they show 4, 10, 8, 1 - 7 this year.
With those numbers you are looking at a roughly similar sample size of guys to that of the average 1st round dynasty rookie draft that are better than the 20-30% average hit rate... and not all of those guys are considered 1st round caliber rookie fantasy picks. In short, without the draft indicators included in the scoring, this draft is not measuring out bad, but the hype is also not seeming to hold up... outside of the TE position it seems to be more or less average.