Who was the last Zeke level RB to fail his dynasty owners?

[Concept Coop]

Looking ahead to startups next year, I'm having a hard time valuing anybody over Zeke. The WR pool is so deep and the RB pool so shallow that the value over replacement is obvious, even if the 2017 RB class lives up to the hype. Obviously RBs carry a lot more risk than WRs. But the elite RBs have been the exception, as far as I can see.

Maybe I'm trying to talk myself out of putting him at the top of my board and wanting your help. But who was the last Zeke level RB prospect, at this point the process, who went on to burn their owners? The guy has a HOF profile and I'm struggling to find reason for concern. At 21 YO, the next 5 years feel very safe, even if he were to miss one of them with an ACL. I don't think I can talk myself into projecting much beyond that.

Let's ignore RB value in relation to other positions, for a moment. I know how the majority feel about that. But can you help me identify legitimately elite RB prospects who didn't go on to provide 5 years of high end production?

[joeday]

I take it you have no shares in Todd Gurley this season? lol

I would love to see what Gurley could do behind that offensive line with that HC/playcaller.

That said, take OBJ at 1.1 in a start up and be thrilled with it.

[TheSpidersFromMars]

TRich

[Fezzik]

Looking ahead to startups next year, I'm having a hard time valuing anybody over Zeke. The WR pool is so deep and the RB pool so shallow that the value over replacement is obvious, even if the 2017 RB class lives up to the hype. Obviously RBs carry a lot more risk than WRs. But the elite RBs have been the exception, as far as I can see.

Maybe I'm trying to talk myself out of putting him at the top of my board and wanting your help. But who was the last Zeke level RB prospect, at this point the process, who went on to burn their owners? The guy has a HOF profile and I'm struggling to find reason for concern. At 21 YO, the next 5 years feel very safe, even if he were to miss one of them with an ACL. I don't think I can talk myself into projecting much beyond that.

Let's ignore RB value in relation to other positions, for a moment. I know how the majority feel about that. But can you help me identify legitimately elite RB prospects who didn't go on to provide 5 years of high end production?

Seriously?
Darren McFadden
Todd Gurley
Trent Richardson (was the definition of what you're talking about. A legitimately elite RB prospect. Draft pedigree. Production at Alabama. Reports he played year 1 injured with broken ribs made me not worry about his movement / ypc despite warning flags)
Cedric Benson

[joeday]

Looking ahead to startups next year, I'm having a hard time valuing anybody over Zeke. The WR pool is so deep and the RB pool so shallow that the value over replacement is obvious, even if the 2017 RB class lives up to the hype. Obviously RBs carry a lot more risk than WRs. But the elite RBs have been the exception, as far as I can see.

Maybe I'm trying to talk myself out of putting him at the top of my board and wanting your help. But who was the last Zeke level RB prospect, at this point the process, who went on to burn their owners? The guy has a HOF profile and I'm struggling to find reason for concern. At 21 YO, the next 5 years feel very safe, even if he were to miss one of them with an ACL. I don't think I can talk myself into projecting much beyond that.

Let's ignore RB value in relation to other positions, for a moment. I know how the majority feel about that. But can you help me identify legitimately elite RB prospects who didn't go on to provide 5 years of high end production?

Seriously?
Darren McFadden
Todd Gurley
Trent Richardson (was the definition of what you're talking about. A legitimately elite RB prospect. Draft pedigree. Production at Alabama. Reports he played year 1 injured with broken ribs made me not worry about his movement / ypc despite warning flags)
Cedric Benson

McFadden is a good one! He was the next Marshall Faulk I believe was the comparison.

[Concept Coop]

I take it you have no shares in Todd Gurley this season? lol

I would love to see what Gurley could do behind that offensive line with that HC/playcaller.

That said, take OBJ at 1.1 in a start up and be thrilled with it.

Good call. I think it's too early to suggest hell be a failure over his first 5 seasons though. And with the injury history, I don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now. But again, I expect a bounce back.

[Concept Coop]

Looking ahead to startups next year, I'm having a hard time valuing anybody over Zeke. The WR pool is so deep and the RB pool so shallow that the value over replacement is obvious, even if the 2017 RB class lives up to the hype. Obviously RBs carry a lot more risk than WRs. But the elite RBs have been the exception, as far as I can see.

Maybe I'm trying to talk myself out of putting him at the top of my board and wanting your help. But who was the last Zeke level RB prospect, at this point the process, who went on to burn their owners? The guy has a HOF profile and I'm struggling to find reason for concern. At 21 YO, the next 5 years feel very safe, even if he were to miss one of them with an ACL. I don't think I can talk myself into projecting much beyond that.

Let's ignore RB value in relation to other positions, for a moment. I know how the majority feel about that. But can you help me identify legitimately elite RB prospects who didn't go on to provide 5 years of high end production?

Seriously?
Darren McFadden
Todd Gurley
Trent Richardson (was the definition of what you're talking about. A legitimately elite RB prospect. Draft pedigree. Production at Alabama. Reports he played year 1 injured with broken ribs made me not worry about his movement / ypc despite warning flags)
Cedric Benson

None of those guys have ever been what Zeke is today, with Gurley being the closest--and he's got plenty of time to put together a nice career. Zeke's more than what he was as a prospect--much more. He's been arguably the best RB in the league as a 21 YO rookie. Richardson never flashed on that level--the Cowboys won't be trading Zeke anytime soon.

[Lotto4Life]

Was McFadden really a #1 startup pick? I didn't remember that. Same for Benson.

I'm sure Bell was taken #1 overall by some. Sure he's lived up to it when he plays, but his injuries and suspensions may leave some owners wishing they'd spent that pick on somebody else (who, I'm not sure).

[Concept Coop]

Was McFadden really a #1 startup pick? I didn't remember that. Same for Benson.

I'm sure Bell was taken #1 overall by some. Sure he's lived up to it when he plays, but his injuries and suspensions may leave some owners wishing they'd spent that pick on somebody else (who, I'm not sure).

No. McFadden was never close. He struggled with injuries from day one. He didn't crack 1K until year 3. Zeke did it in 9 weeks.

[Johnny Canuck]

I know you said to ignore the other positions, but when your discussing startup valuations I don't think you can take that part out of the equation.

The RB position is too reliant on other positions/gameflow to be valued over WR

- need to have a competent QB and WRs to threaten downfield so the def can't load the box (inverse of Gurley this yr)
- need to have a decent O-line to create holes
- hopefully the game script goes their way. Now that there isn't many true 3 down backs, game script is huge in pt projection.

The counter argument, is that if you can get a true stud 3 down back, that's a major advantage as they are rare; but then there's also the fact that most RBs seem to have the tendency to fall off a cliff all too often/fast. Think about CJA and Jeremy Hill in 2014 when everyone was crowning them the next kings of the RB position, and they got drafted in the first in a few start ups I was in the next season - now look at them (just one example).

I think that the top 3 RBs - Zeke, DJ, and Bell are the safest (in that order), but outside of them I would go with a WR.

So I guess, yah Zeke is fine at the top of the board. I would also have some others quite close tho - namely OBJ, DJ, and Evans. If it was me, I'd prob have Evans at the top. That size combo with an up and coming winston is too much to pass on. Zeke is great, but I don't know if he'll become Gurley 2016 once that O-line is dismantled due to FA in a few yrs

[Cameron Giles]

There was a time when CJ Spiller and Doug Martin were considered Top 10 startup picks.

[joeday]

I take it you have no shares in Todd Gurley this season? lol

I would love to see what Gurley could do behind that offensive line with that HC/playcaller.

That said, take OBJ at 1.1 in a start up and be thrilled with it.

Good call. I think it's too early to suggest hell be a failure over his first 5 seasons though. And with the injury history, I don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now. But again, I expect a bounce back.

Injury history? Yeah, the torn ACL, but I really don't know what else you could be talking about. I think Zeke and Gurley are equal from a talent perspective, but with RB being the only position where a bad situation can drag you down I could see how you think less of Gurley.

But lets put their respective rookie years into some perspective. Each, to this point, have started 12 games their rookie seasons. Zeke has 40 more carries than Gurley did and 188 more rushing yards and 2 more TDs. Their YPC, in their starts, at their respective points in their rookie years were both 4.9. Zeke obviously out shined Gurley in the pass catching department but I think we can all agree that had a lot to do with missing all of training camp and picking up pass protection schemes. Keep in mind that Gurley did all that behind a horrendous OL, with zero playmakers on the outside and terrible QB play. Put him in Dallas and he would have numbers, at least in the running game, equal to Zeke. I like Zeke a lot but dismissing Gurley stating you "don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now" seems to reek of recency bias.

[Lotto4Life]

Keep in mind that Gurley did all that behind a horrendous OL, with zero playmakers on the outside and terrible QB play. Put him in Dallas and he would have numbers, at least in the running game, equal to Zeke. I like Zeke a lot but dismissing Gurley stating you "don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now" seems to reek of recency bias.

But Gurley isn't in Dallas. And he won't be for at least 3 more years. Do you think the Rams OL/QB/WR situation will get better in the next 3 years? If it doesn't, how much tread will Gurley have left on the tires? Will the Dallas OL/QB/WR situation deteriorate in the next 3-4 years? Situation matters a lot.

[Concept Coop]

I take it you have no shares in Todd Gurley this season? lol

I would love to see what Gurley could do behind that offensive line with that HC/playcaller.

That said, take OBJ at 1.1 in a start up and be thrilled with it.

Good call. I think it's too early to suggest hell be a failure over his first 5 seasons though. And with the injury history, I don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now. But again, I expect a bounce back.

Injury history? Yeah, the torn ACL, but I really don't know what else you could be talking about. I think Zeke and Gurley are equal from a talent perspective, but with RB being the only position where a bad situation can drag you down I could see how you think less of Gurley.

But lets put their respective rookie years into some perspective. Each, to this point, have started 12 games their rookie seasons. Zeke has 40 more carries than Gurley did and 188 more rushing yards and 2 more TDs. Their YPC, in their starts, at their respective points in their rookie years were both 4.9. Zeke obviously out shined Gurley in the pass catching department but I think we can all agree that had a lot to do with missing all of training camp and picking up pass protection schemes. Keep in mind that Gurley did all that behind a horrendous OL, with zero playmakers on the outside and terrible QB play. Put him in Dallas and he would have numbers, at least in the running game, equal to Zeke. I like Zeke a lot but dismissing Gurley stating you "don't think he's ever been quite what Zeke is now" seems to reek of recency bias.

Gurley was banged up frequently over his last two season, even outside of the ACL. And remember, Gurley wouldn't let teams examine his knee at the combine--which raised questions.

You can call it recency bias, but I know I've never been tempted to treat Todd Gurley as the top dynasty asset.

But it's moot, really. My stance on Gurley is that he's going to bounce back and make his owners very happy. Even if we lumped them together, I don't qualify Gurley as a counter example. Not yet, at least.

Lastly, Zeke's offensive line is young and by the start of next season, all major parts will be locked up long term. I think it's very reasonable to include that in his dynasty value, the same way we build Andrew Luck into our valuation of his weapons.

[dlf_jules]

Here are all the Round 1 RBs who have posted 1500 yards from scrimmage at age 22 or younger since 1990. (Elliott already has 1607 yards from scrimmage.)

Young Stud RBs.PNG (47.28 KiB) Viewed 861 times

No busts in that group. If you include Round 2 RBs, you get this list:

Young 1-2 RBs.PNG (68.35 KiB) Viewed 861 times

That gives you one bust: Natrone Means.