Nuk vs 1.01

[AussieMate]

Seems split with some people %100 nuk and other "easily" 1.01 but it depends on the league. We saw zeke go for a kings ransom earlier this year and with the way he has played it will push the price up. What I'm saying is if your in a league where people are obsessed with rbs or shiny new toys I'd want the 1.01 to trade. I watched 1.01 (gurley) get traded for Julio+ the other year in my league so there is that. If you play with people who value studs like Hopkins than I'd take Hopkins.

[Johnny Canuck]

(*I stole most of this from my other post comparing Dhop and Kbenj so sorry if you've read this before. It seems relevant so I'm gonna post it here)

In terms of overall future worth I'd take the 1.01 strt up - but I agree with the others in this thread in that nuk will likely still be valued more highly.

Meaning it's a perfect time to trade nuk for the 1.01+ and get a steal of a deal.

Dhop has been having rough year, and I think most agree that you can safely attribute that fact to his subpar QB play.

Now consider this, is Brock likely to bounce back next season (and in turn have Dhop return to his elite 2015 form). Highly highly doubtful. Brock has virtually zero history to draw on that would suggest that his play is likely to improve. Who knows, this could even be Brocks maximum level of play. We just don't have the information to definitely state that he can play better.

Additionally, ppl are always saying "look how good Dhop was with terrible QBs, blah blah blah", well you know what, Hoyer wasn't actually that bad. in fact Hoyer was actually somewhat decent (not great, let's not get crazy...but decent), and it's pretty evident that others around the NFL agree, considering he stole Cutlers job in Chicago. Don't just assume that Dhop is QB proof, because based on this yr, he certainly doesn't appear to be. He needed Hoyer, and he needs a QB level that is above Brock...but now he's stuck with Brock for a few years at the least. Are you willing to wait two or three years, till they finally move on from him. I wouldn't be. Personally I'd rather not have my "number 1 WR" hitched to the brock lobster.

Consider this as well, in the early season, Fuller was Brocks preferred option - not Dhop. Fuller hasn't been healthy lately, so this obvs isn't the case currently, but who's to say that doesn't continue once Fuller is back to 100%. Also considering the 2017 season, with the emergence/progression of young texans receiving talent (Fuller, Miller, CJF) I would gather that dhops market share will further decrease.

For you Dhop truthers out there, yes Dhop was amazing in 2015, yes he's a great player, but his elite season was a product of volume.

Dhop should be ranked somewhere between WR9 and WR16 in a good year. Now before you all lose your minds, any DHop owner would LOVE for him to ranked that highly right now...he's currently WR32

Did you know that he had the 3rd most targets in the NFL last year (192). Did you also know that is more targets than any WR received in 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010...So if your fantasy sense of entitlement is leading you expect that 2015 season to occur again, you are dreaming. I'm sorry if you bought him at peak value, but that was an outlier plain and simple.

This year he's currently on pace to receive 152 targets...and his numbers are still pretty bad. It's not like 152 is something to sneeze at either,152 would be enough for 4th in WR trg in 2014, and 10th in 2013.

Honestly ask yourself, what do you think is more likely, that Dhop magically gets close to 200 targets next season? (which would be almost the single season target record - like 2015, when he was the only show in town); or do you think that he stays around the same number he got this year...AND he might even receive slightly less due to the talent surrounding him now? prob the latter, as the former, like I said before, is a outlier.

With that in mind, in the 2017 season, do you think he's more likely to replicate his 2015 season or 2016 level in the future...probability suggests that he'll be closer to this seasons production.

Dhop is a great WR, but he's tied to a terrible QB, has increasing competition for targets, and his "elite" production of the past appears to be partially tied to target volume (that he is unlikely to receive again).

So compare that to the other potential players that have gone 1.01 in recent years: Zeke, Cooper, Gurley. I'd prob rather have any of those guys. And yes you could of been the crazy person that drafted White first overall, and yes even a solid prospect can bust (t-rich was once a solid prospect); but based on Dhops future outlook, I'd rather risk it, and hope I land a Zeke or Coop.

So yes, I do believe that Dhops perceived value around the dynasty is still high; but it really shouldn't be. His future outlook is pretty bleak, unless Brock is no longer the QB, he changes teams, or all their other receiving talent disappears somehow.

I'd rather have the 1.01, but I'd def try and get the 1.01++

[Cameron Giles]

Seems split with some people %100 nuk and other "easily" 1.01 but it depends on the league. We saw zeke go for a kings ransom earlier this year and with the way he has played it will push the price up. What I'm saying is if your in a league where people are obsessed with rbs or shiny new toys I'd want the 1.01 to trade. I watched 1.01 (gurley) get traded for Julio+ the other year in my league so there is that. If you play with people who value studs like Hopkins than I'd take Hopkins.

Zeke is not worth more than he was over the offseason. If he is, it's by very very little. If you bought Zeke, you bought high and as high as it will ever get.

[nathanq42]

Seems split with some people %100 nuk and other "easily" 1.01 but it depends on the league. We saw zeke go for a kings ransom earlier this year and with the way he has played it will push the price up. What I'm saying is if your in a league where people are obsessed with rbs or shiny new toys I'd want the 1.01 to trade. I watched 1.01 (gurley) get traded for Julio+ the other year in my league so there is that. If you play with people who value studs like Hopkins than I'd take Hopkins.

Zeke is not worth more than he was over the offseason. If he is, it's by very very little. If you bought Zeke, you bought high and as high as it will ever get.

I think the point he was trying to make was that Zeke was 1.01 and he is killing it, so that will increase peoples' expectations for the 1.02 this year, thus driving up the price of the 2017 1.01

[Payton34]

With Johnny Canuck on this... I am a Nuk owner and if offered the 1.1? He gone.

Situation in Houston is not looking like it is going to vault Hopkins back to elite status any time soon. Osweiler may get better, but he seems to spread the ball out a ton. That doesn't equate to elite level production.

With the 1.1 I get to select player and situation with a very talented class... Be it Fournette, Cook, the Clemson WR coming out(forgive me, I'm tired).

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[pokerface40]

Seems split with some people %100 nuk and other "easily" 1.01 but it depends on the league. We saw zeke go for a kings ransom earlier this year and with the way he has played it will push the price up. What I'm saying is if your in a league where people are obsessed with rbs or shiny new toys I'd want the 1.01 to trade. I watched 1.01 (gurley) get traded for Julio+ the other year in my league so there is that. If you play with people who value studs like Hopkins than I'd take Hopkins.

Zeke is not worth more than he was over the offseason. If he is, it's by very very little. If you bought Zeke, you bought high and as high as it will ever get.

I guess you don't watch football then. An argument can be made for Zeke to be the no.1 dynasty asset.

As to the OP's question, I go Nuk although it's close

[IR1]

Nuk side for me

[Cameron Giles]

Seems split with some people %100 nuk and other "easily" 1.01 but it depends on the league. We saw zeke go for a kings ransom earlier this year and with the way he has played it will push the price up. What I'm saying is if your in a league where people are obsessed with rbs or shiny new toys I'd want the 1.01 to trade. I watched 1.01 (gurley) get traded for Julio+ the other year in my league so there is that. If you play with people who value studs like Hopkins than I'd take Hopkins.

Zeke is not worth more than he was over the offseason. If he is, it's by very very little. If you bought Zeke, you bought high and as high as it will ever get.

I guess you don't watch football then. An argument can be made for Zeke to be the no.1 dynasty asset.

As to the OP's question, I go Nuk although it's close

I'm a big Zeke fan but there's no chance he's the #1 Dynasty asset.

And if he was, the going rate in the offseason was 3 first round picks. Thats as high as it typically gets.

[NumberKruncher]

Nuke for me. I was lucky with 1.01 last year but also had 1.02 and Treadwell didn't work out yet. Proven Talent for me

[cowboysfan]

Nuke for me as well.

[ChickenBeaks]

I'm on the Nuk side as well. To me, it's wildly risky to assume that the 1.01 will produce to the level that Elliot has so far..
Most years, (Coop/Gurley, or Sammy the year prior) it's picking the guy you HOPE will show Nuk's ability. Although I completely understand the Houston/Osweiler/O
Reilly situation that people are pointing to, I just want to say I don't think it's THAT dire of a situation. Yes they suck. Yes Brock really sucks.... But I think it's a better sitation that say.... Alshon's. Chicago has no semblance of a long term head coach, offensive mind, consistent defense, GM or really a whole lot of talent... Houston has a good defense, a pretty good core (multiple guys at WR, RB, etc...) and really they are missing 1 piece that can be drafted next year. Maybe in the range where Carr was taken?

I really wish this was a poll. I'd love to see the numbers!

[BuckeyeNation]

I'll take Nuke, but unlike most that are strongly in favor of one side or the other, I think this is really close.

What worries me about Hopkins is that he can improve dramatically from what he's done so far this season and still not be an elite fantasy WR. He's not even on pace for 1k yards this season. I think '15 will go down as an outlier season for Hopkins, as a perfect storm of no running game, no other receiving options, playing from behind a lot during the first half of the season, and a QB who was willing to lock onto him was what lead to his monster season. Honestly Hopkins really only had a monster half of a season in '15, as his production dipped significantly once HOU was competitive and had a running game to speak of. Oz isn't going anywhere for at least another season or two, and the team invested heavily in the RB/WR positions. Add to that an emerging TE and the overall uptick in usage of the TE position in Houston and I think it's a tough sell to say Hopkins returns to being a top 5 WR option, maybe not even a top 10 WR.

[Payton34]

I keep reading people saying that next year's 1.1 likely won't produce like Elliott as a reason for going Nuk on this. Understand, next year's 1.1 doesn't HAVE to produce like Elliott to be better than Nuk... We will likely see an equally talented WR or two drafted to a better situation, and a pick of the likes of Fournette, Cook, Chubb, Gallman available to us at 1.1...

Let's revisit this in June and see how many will be lining up with the, "Help me guys... Nuk + ? = 1.1? "...

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[BuckeyeNation]

I keep reading people saying that next year's 1.1 likely won't produce like Elliott as a reason for going Nuk on this. Understand, next year's 1.1 doesn't HAVE to produce like Elliott to be better than Nuk... We will likely see an equally talented WR or two drafted to a better situation, and a pick of the likes of Fournette, Cook, Chubb, Gallman available to us at 1.1...

Let's revisit this in June and see how many will be lining up with the, "Help me guys... Nuk + ? = 1.1? "...

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And to back up your argument from another angle; As risky as rookie picks are in general, the 1.01 is usually air-tight in netting you a rookie that will be at least a top 12-15 startup player heading into their sophomore season. Yes there are busts and players that don't pan out, but even the 1.01's that don't pan out are usually very highly valued players after 1 season. Unless you completely go off the reservation with the 1.01, you'll have a player that's valued as as an elite asset after their rookie season. Look at the 1.01 over the past 6 seasons.

2011: AJG/Julio - I guess you whiffed if you drafted Ingram, but I still don't get why people passed on two freak WR prospects in a dynasty that were drafted 4 and 6 for an Alabama RB drafted at the end of the 1st.

2012: TRich/Martin: Both were top 6-8 startup picks heading into 2013, and both were even drafted 1.01 in some 2013 startups. Even if you took Luck at 1.01, he was going in the 2nd/3rd in startups (I'd never draft a QB at 1.01 in a 1QB league)

2013: This class had no standout 1.01 player, but had 7 players that were 1.01 draft picks in various leagues. Lacy/Bell/Ball/Gio/Tavon/Patterson/Hopkins. A lot of misses 4 years later, but only Tavon lost value as a rookie. The other 6 were at least 3rd round startup picks in 2014, and 3 were frequents in the late 1st/early 2nd (Lacy/Gio/Bell)

2014: Watkins/Evans: We know the stories of both. Watkins has dealt with injuries but was a borderline 1st round pick in '15. Evans stayed a bit lower in '15 startups, but I still saw some drafting him in the 1st.

2015: Gurley/Cooper: Both 1st round startup picks this year

2016: Zeke: Many people's dynasty RB1, will be at least a top 7-8 startup pick next year

What I'm getting at here is that I think rookie picks in general are overvalued, but I think in most classes it's possible that the 1.01 is actually undervalued. Especially if we're talking about buying it during the previous season. Unless you go against the grain and take a player that "shouldn't" be the 1.01 in a particular class, the 1.01 is almost the surest bet there is to have an elite asset the following season, and that's before even considering possibilities of trading the pick for a ransom.

[Cameron Giles]

I keep reading people saying that next year's 1.1 likely won't produce like Elliott as a reason for going Nuk on this. Understand, next year's 1.1 doesn't HAVE to produce like Elliott to be better than Nuk... We will likely see an equally talented WR or two drafted to a better situation, and a pick of the likes of Fournette, Cook, Chubb, Gallman available to us at 1.1...

Let's revisit this in June and see how many will be lining up with the, "Help me guys... Nuk + ? = 1.1? "...

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Trading Nuk for the 1.01 would reek of so much recency bias. Coming into the season, an offer like that gets laughed at. Hopkins is having a down year, but the chances of him not returning to form are pretty slim. He's too talented, too good, and he's still only 24 years old.