Superflex: Dalton or Early 17 1st

[Kramer]

Have a trade offer I have in front of me involving the likely 1.01 or 1.02...

10 team superflex 0.5 ppr
I give Dalton
I get 2017 1.01 or 1.02

We do a lottery system for the draft where the bottom four teams get (40%, 30%, 20%, 10%) to determine the draft order. I have 4 other 17 1sts at the moment and see 3 of them in the top 4 based on how teams are doing (Have the picks of 4 out of the 5 bottom teams currently and this other pick that I'm looking to acquire is from the 5th team who is also one of two really bad teams, the other being my own). This pick would give me a great shot at having all 4 of those picks and assuring myself the top 4 picks. Not leaving much to chance. Worst case I would probably have the top 3.

Seems silly to trade away an underrated QB like Dalton in a 10 team superflex for just a single 1st, but I'm torn. I would have Winston, Carr and Dak still after Dalton, so wouldn't be hurting at QB. Value wise is this a good move to make?

For those that may not play superflex, Dalton I would say is similar in value to a player like Kelvin Benjamin probably. So in other words, would you trade Kelvin Benjamin for one of the two worst team's 2017 1st?

[bwalsh015]

You have Winston, Carr, Dak and Glennon who could find himself in some starting role next year so I would definitely trade Dalton for the early pick. Worst case you can re flip the pick during the draft for a nice return on investment.

[BuckeyeNation]

In your shoes I'd definitely sell Dalton for a pick that projects to be 1.01-1.02 next year.

I do play in various multi-QB formats, and out of most of those types of leagues QBs are worth the least in a 10 team SF. With only 10 teams, and not being absolutely forced to start 2QBs, the positional scarcity isn't as great as some would think. In SF leagues where you're comparing the advantage of starting a QB like Dalton in your SF as opposed to a positional player, QB scoring plays a large role as well. I play in a SF league where passing stats are so devalued that once you get outside the top 15 QBs or so you're really not gaining much of an advantage with a 2nd QB over starting another RB/WR/TE.

If this were a 12 team true 2QB league, then there's no way I'd sell Dalton for a single 1st. In your format, and already having 3 other young QBs in Winston/Carr/Dak plus a lottery ticket in Glennon, I'd ship Dalton for a top 2 pick all day long.

[Kramer]

I feel like it's a really good trade for both teams. His QBs are Ryan, Wentz, Tannehill, Goff, so he needed a solid QB2. I went back to him to take the deal and he said he changed his mind (he had previously said, "he would trade that 1st for Dalton in a heartbeat, but I'd be stupid to do it"). He probably saw this thread and changed his mind actually. Sigh.

He just loses all credibility doing that going forward in my book. Thanks anyway guys.

[dblj1199]

I'd take the deal, but after seeing your other qb's, a easy accept. If you don't need to grab a qb high you may have your pick of the top rbs, depending on how your draft sets up.

[moishetreats]

In this format, I think that Dalton is worth more than 1.01. On the other hand, I highly doubt that you would ever get more than 1.01. Given your other QBs and other first-round picks, I'd make this trade in a heartbeat.

[skip]

Dalton is worth more in a Superflex format than any single first round pick. Just because you have the depth to give does not mean you should sell low. He's definitely with more than KB as well.

I disagree with an above comment that once outside the top 15 QBs you are just as well off with a positional player in your flex. That is completely false. You want to start your WR4 over even an average QB who will give you 15 points a game? Heck no...

I play in a handful of SF leagues and the difference between winners and losers are your QBs. If you opt to go light at the position, you will be digging your way out of a hole for years. Maintain your depth unless you get a big return.

[BuckeyeNation]

Dalton is worth more in a Superflex format than any single first round pick. Just because you have the depth to give does not mean you should sell low. He's definitely with more than KB as well.

I disagree with an above comment that once outside the top 15 QBs you are just as well off with a positional player in your flex. That is completely false. You want to start your WR4 over even an average QB who will give you 15 points a game? Heck no...

I play in a handful of SF leagues and the difference between winners and losers are your QBs. If you opt to go light at the position, you will be digging your way out of a hole for years. Maintain your depth unless you get a big return.

Actually it's not false, it's entirely true. Again, my caveat was if you played in a SF league with heaving devalued scoring (1pt/25 passing, 4pt/TDs). I'm not saying that you don't ideally want to start 2QBs weekly, but when you get into the low QB2 range the juice just isn't worth the squeeze for the extra couple points per game the low range starters give you with that scoring format. That's why QB scoring rules are so important when determining the value of lower tiered QBs in SF leagues.

You do realize that in PPR leagues WRs that you can get 10-12ppg out of grow on trees. I don't classify Dalton as a low end option that will only score 15ppg, but this is exactly why paying substantially for QBs that do score in that range makes no sense.

We'll agree to disagree here, but I've played in various SF formats and true 2QBs formats, and my opinion has and probably will always be that non-elite QBs are WAY overvalued in smaller SF leagues with low QB scoring. 14 team SF leagues, sure because there's much more positional scarcity. 10 team SF leagues, QB scoring better be 1pt/20 with 6pt/passing TDs before I give the 1.01 for a QB that I don't consider to be a top 10 dynasty QB.

[skip]

10 team SF leagues

I'll qualify my comments in that I don't and wouldn't ever play in a 10 team league. Too many starting options just sitting on the waiver wire at any position. In my leagues last season you had to go almost 25 QBs deep to even see a dip under 19 points per game which is a big difference out of the flex spot vs. 10-12 points.