Am I too low on Matt Jones?

[Eight7Seven]

I received a trade offer and exchanged a few emails with the Matt Jones owner today and wanted to see if I was off base.

The Scenario
I have the 1.10 (first league in signature) and the 1.09 was currently in the clock. The 1.09 owner had already selected Paul Perkins at 1.08 in another league we were in so I projected he'd take him again (he did). The Matt Jones owner emailed me offering Jones and Jared Cook for the 1.10 and Mychal Kendricks (he's a LB2 With strong upside).

My Viewpoint
I'm not really a fan of Jones at all. I think he was among the worst RB's in the league last year and I think he will likely lose the starting job by next season. Jared Cook is waiver wire quality to me, especially as I have Gronk and Allen at TE. I was planning on selecting Kenneth Dixon with the 1.10 (which I did). I'm a big fan of Dixon and expect him to emerge as the starting RB of the Ravens this season. Mychal Kendricks has put up LB1 numbers at several points in his short career. The biggest problem with him is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Linebackers in our league score a lot of points. ESPN's projection have Kendricks outscoring Jones this season for our league.

My decision
I countered with the 1.10 and Ka'Deem Carry (who I'd have to drop to add a RB) for Jones. While I like Dixon more then Jones, he's got more competition around him for his job and there was still the chance Dixon would go at 1.09. Dixon was the only back I had ranked in this range and I would have had to go a different direction if Dixon was taken. My backs are very old so a young addition was very needed for my roster.

Any feedback will be appreciated thank you.

[mrmarkyr]

I don't think your too low on Jones - your thoughts pretty much echo mine - except I can see him doing ok this year before the 2017 class replaces him.

[franklin43]

and I think he will likely lose the starting job by next season.

I've heard this way too many times. Maybe we should just skip the 2016 season and go straight to 2017?!!

Jones has zero competition for carries or targets in what is projected to be a good offense AND the Redskins LOVE him. What more do you need to know?

Yes, you're too low on Jones, but so is EVERYONE. It's probably not that big of a deal.

[jpusmc0311]

I think you're way too low on Jones. He was a rookie having a rookie type of year. He averaged the exact same amount of yard per carry as Melvin Gordon, and I bet you would ask for a lot more for Gordon. I think both of them had a rough time adjusting to the speed of the NFL, but I think they'll both step it up.

[Eight7Seven]

I've heard this way too many times. Maybe we should just skip the 2016 season and go straight to 2017?!!

Jones has zero competition for carries or targets in what is projected to be a good offense AND the Redskins LOVE him. What more do you need to know?

Yes, you're too low on Jones, but so is EVERYONE. It's probably not that big of a deal.

First off I love the passion, thanks for the inspired advice. For my situation in specific I would've had All DAY, McCoy and Forte ahead of Jones for two RB spots and Forte, Crabtree, Floyd and Parker ahead of Jones for my flex spot. So his long-term impact is much more valuable to me then anything he is likely to do in 2016.

If you've been following the camp notes Thompson is projected to be relied heavily on third downs. Marshall is also an amazing athlete so if he is a fast learner he could also enter the rotation this season, I wouldn't call that no competition.

[Eight7Seven]

I think you're way too low on Jones. He was a rookie having a rookie type of year. He averaged the exact same amount of yard per carry as Melvin Gordon, and I bet you would ask for a lot more for Gordon. I think both of them had a rough time adjusting to the speed of the NFL, but I think they'll both step it up.

One of my failings as a fantasy player is that I can't seem to shake off my college evaluations after only a rookie season. This ways heavily into my decision making for the above example you listed. I loved Gordon's tape and had him ranked very highly, where I did not like Jones at all and moved him lower on my board then many on these forums. So if I was offered Gordon as opposed to Jones you're likely right that is have made a different counter.

I will say that Jones had a much better offensive line then Gordon and had a better offense around him. In watching them both last season Jones looked worse to me, but that could have been partially due to confirmation bias for Gordon.

Thank you for the insight.

[suhnami_phil]

I think you're way too low on Jones. He was a rookie having a rookie type of year. He averaged the exact same amount of yard per carry as Melvin Gordon, and I bet you would ask for a lot more for Gordon. I think both of them had a rough time adjusting to the speed of the NFL, but I think they'll both step it up.

Agree with this. He looked a fantastic RB at times last year with a violent, powerful style. I traded for him in my 16 team league and gave up 2.12 and Jordan Hicks and thought I got an absolute bargain. At the end of the day, he could rack up over 250 carries this year and I definitely prefer him over Perkins and Dixon certainly in the short term but also long term at the moment.

[Jmatt>Coleman]

I just sold him for 2016 1.11 and a 2017 first. I am not sold. I get the appeal, big, fast, athletic profile. You shouldn't judge a rb only by their rookie season but man he was hard to watch. That team would put up 40 points a game and he would have 40 yards on 3.4 ypc. I really cannot explain why he was not tearing it up. He was getting stuffed at the goal line, losing third downs to Thompson, and worst of all he would try to bounce everything outside for losses. The one play where I decided I needed to move him when the time was right was when he didn't take the three yard gain he was given, bounced outide, got tackled by his hair from behind for a loss of three. Gruden benched Morris ( a guy who rushed for 1700 yards as a rookie) due to his love for this guy, and he didn't produce. Period. Gruden loves him and he is getting a shot this year but personally I would capitalize on that in your league and move him. Thompson is a factor in third downs and for his size he doesn't run with power. Injury concerns already with very limited tread. You can have the best athlete in the world in the backfield, but if he doesn't have vision you are left with........Trent Richardson! Redraft leagues like him this year due to opportunity alone. Dynesty I'll pass on him and Gordon for their prices.

[jpusmc0311]

I just sold him for 2016 1.11 and a 2017 first. I am not sold. I get the appeal, big, fast, athletic profile. You shouldn't judge a rb only by their rookie season but man he was hard to watch. That team would put up 40 points a game and he would have 40 yards on 3.4 ypc. I really cannot explain why he was not tearing it up. He was getting stuffed at the goal line, losing third downs to Thompson, and worst of all he would try to bounce everything outside for losses. The one play where I decided I needed to move him when the time was right was when he didn't take the three yard gain he was given, bounced outide, got tackled by his hair from behind for a loss of three. Gruden benched Morris ( a guy who rushed for 1700 yards as a rookie) due to his love for this guy, and he didn't produce. Period. Gruden loves him and he is getting a shot this year but personally I would capitalize on that in your league and move him. Thompson is a factor in third downs and for his size he doesn't run with power. Injury concerns already with very limited tread. You can have the best athlete in the world in the backfield, but if he doesn't have vision you are left with........Trent Richardson! Redraft leagues like him this year due to opportunity alone. Dynesty I'll pass on him and Gordon for their prices.

I like Matt Jones, but I must admit, you got max value for him. I'd trade him for 2 first round picks in a heart beat lol

[HereForTheComments]

If you don't buy into the player, then you received good value. Hard to pass up 2 firsts for a player you think low of.

[sloth8u]

i own him, but am not buying.

the numbers project (assuming health) that its likely he finishes as top 12 rb. give him 250 for 1000 or close and 40 for 400 with 8 tds or so. perhaps thats optimistic, but if they do intend to lean on him...very obtainable. essentially 1400 + total yds and some tds..and you have yourself a nice rb. this is obviously assuming health and that he keeps the job.

long term...its hard to say here. he has some qualities that i really like. you bring up his vision, and i think its a strength where you see it as a weakness. he has a knack of setting defenders up and using the speed to burst by them. the cut back isnt always there, but he's looking for it....which often times can result in huge plays. its pretty easy to say that they can just add a rb next draft and i somewhat agree....but i think jones can have a say in that decision with how he performs.

as to if your too low...you offered 1.10 and carey. i think that seems about right for most competitive leagues. i dont know that anyone sells for that today, but i think your pretty close to the buying price.

[TTHTD]

If you've been following the camp notes Thompson is projected to be relied heavily on third downs. Marshall is also an amazing athlete so if he is a fast learner he could also enter the rotation this season, I wouldn't call that no competition.

I've been following the camp notes and that is a bit of an overstatement. Thomas will definitely be used but I've seen nothing that suggests Thomson will be heavily relied on in 3rd down situation (especially since Jones is an accomplished pass catcher) and Kieth Marshall may end up on the practice squad and has been described as no threat to Jones this season.

Jones was mediocre last year and had fumbling issues. He's been working on ball security and the coaches have faith in him. Jones will have a lot of volume this season. No one can predict 2017. No one can see beyond this right now... but he's worth more than an RB in this draft besides Zeke and Henry imo.

[jonf86]

I like most am not a big fan of Jones, but at that point in the draft the value is on Jones' side. I think it's more likely Jones figures it out and improves than it is you hit big with the 1.10 draft pick. Again, I don't think Jones will suddenly become a super star, but he does have enough talent and potential (and a good opportunity) for you to justify giving up that pick

[theone]

The late first range is close to where most of these young starting RBs with questionable roles/talent are going. Jones tape from last season basically matched up with his college tape which is why he ended as one of the worst graded backs last year. A back with ideal frame and nice long speed that has no idea of how to play the position. No idea of when to cut/bounce, runs into closed lanes too often, fumble issues,...

With that being said I could easily see Jones putting up a solid volume based RB2 season like L. Murray did last year (Murray finished as an RB1 with all the injuries at RB but was 19th in PPG). WAS overdrafted him (3rd rounder) and seems committed to him having brought no veteran in to challenge for reps. The problem is Murray's value did not jump much (he is in the same range as Jones) so even if Jones has a decent year he probably will not see a big value jump due to the upcoming class and perceived lack of Jones' talent.

[Jmatt>Coleman]

"It's a two-headed monster in the backfield," said McCloughan, a statement that runs a bit contrary to the largely-held perception that Matt Jones has workhorse potential. McCloughan sounded very excited about Marshall's prospects this year. "He's a one-cut guy and when he puts his foot in the ground, he can FLY," said the second-year GM. "He's 220 (pounds) and he can FLY. ... Keith's done a really good job. A really good job." Marshall should be owned in all Dynasty leagues and is someone worth monitoring closely in re-draft.


Boom. And so it begins