4 offers for the 1.1

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby 1coldone » Mon Jun 20, 2016 4:24 pm

hoos89 wrote:
1coldone wrote:not to mention...a couple of good games from zeke and he is worth more than what is being offered now...lol
It'll take more than a couple good games from Zeke to make him worth more than AJG. His valuation already includes the assumption that he'll put up some solid games. His value won't jump that much just because he puts up a couple good games.

It depends on the league...I have seen some dumb trades trades in a couple of my leagues already. zeke having couple good game (early on) and being behind that line...yea, good chance someone will probably pay even more...

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby Steelersfan » Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:26 pm

Considering your roster and what the 1.01 has been moved for recently I wouldn't accept any of the offers listed.

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby ArrylT » Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:23 pm

hoos89 wrote:
Tsunami wrote:I don't agree with the "sunk cost" argument. The only reason I would have given Gronk for Zeke is if I was sure I could get a wow offer later. None of these are worth Gronk. Wait for a great offer or you made a big mistake.
Except it is by definition a sunk cost. He has already paid it. Yes his reasoning for paying that much might still be relevant if he actually values Zeke that high (or Gronk that low), but the mere fact that he paid Gronk doesn't make Zeke worth Gronk. Treating it as anything else is just trying to save face/rationalize past behavior. Yeah getting AJG for Gronk isn't as great as getting AJG for Zeke, but just because OP gave up value in a previous trade doesn't mean he shouldn't get it back now that value is knocking on the door. And AJG for 1.1 is a pretty ridiculous offer. So is AB for 1.1+Lockett+Jones.
However the OPs intention is to take advantage of the Zeke hype and hopefully sell the 1.01 at a profit. You cannot sell at a profit if you do not consider the original price. Therefore it is imperative that you compare the previous price to the offers available and use that as a measuring stick.

Not to mention the acquisition was recent. We are not talking a month or 2 or 6 months ago. You dont buy something at $100 and immediately turn it around and sell it for something that may only cost $90. So in order to determine if he is getting more, he absolutely has to consider the price he paid. It would be a different story if the value was declining, but that hasnt happened yet, so there is definitely the opportunity to get more.

Furthermore your rationale basically comes down to the idea that it is ok to lose the previous trade because you are going to lose this one as well - which is simply bad logic imho.

If the original goal had simply been to get the 1.01, then later changed their mind and decided to move the 1.01/Zeke then sure Gronk being the original starting point is irrelevant. But when the goal is to get to Z via Y, X is a necessary factor when X is what got you Y.
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby hoos89 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:03 pm

ArrylT wrote: Furthermore your rationale basically comes down to the idea that it is ok to lose the previous trade because you are going to lose this one as well - which is simply bad logic imho.
Please point out where I said he was going to lose this trade or that it was OKAY to lose on the previous trade. I don't think the previous trade was smart, or that it's okay that he lost on it, but what's done is done. I also don't see this trade as a loss. AJG for Zeke as a fairly substantial win, in my opinion. Yes when you couple the two trades together it ends up being a more or less lateral move in value, maybe a slight loss, but at the end of the day that's better than taking a material net loss. The OP paid a price way above what anyone realistically should pay for Zeke right now, and it's unrealistic to expect a profit considering there are only a handful of players more valuable than Gronk right now. Yes there have been a handful of absurd trades posted on here, but that's not what I think anyone should realistically expect to get for him. Zeke is Zeke, not Gronk. He should be valued accordingly regardless of what was paid for him when.

(Also X isn't a necessary factor at all. You have Y now, not X. X is gone.)
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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby DTMW78 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:02 pm

This trade just went down in one of my leagues...
1.1
For
Devonta Freeman + Kelvin Benjamin + 1.5
What do you guys think of that deal?

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby FantasyFreak » Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:39 am

Trading away a guy like Gronk on the assumption that you will get a great offer for Zeke is not a good move IMO. In a few of my leagues, nobody is buying into the hype. They realize he is good, but aren't willing to pay the ridiculous prices the 1.01 owners want for Zeke. I would try and work on the AJG deal, or the Miller deal but maybe get a 2017 first thrown in as well, in exchange for a 2017 2nd, or 3rd. Something like that. I would not make any of the deals as is, because I would want more after trading Gronk as you stated.
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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby ArrylT » Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:19 am

hoos89 wrote:
ArrylT wrote: Furthermore your rationale basically comes down to the idea that it is ok to lose the previous trade because you are going to lose this one as well - which is simply bad logic imho.
Please point out where I said he was going to lose this trade or that it was OKAY to lose on the previous trade. I don't think the previous trade was smart, or that it's okay that he lost on it, but what's done is done. I also don't see this trade as a loss. AJG for Zeke as a fairly substantial win, in my opinion. Yes when you couple the two trades together it ends up being a more or less lateral move in value, maybe a slight loss, but at the end of the day that's better than taking a material net loss. The OP paid a price way above what anyone realistically should pay for Zeke right now, and it's unrealistic to expect a profit considering there are only a handful of players more valuable than Gronk right now. Yes there have been a handful of absurd trades posted on here, but that's not what I think anyone should realistically expect to get for him. Zeke is Zeke, not Gronk. He should be valued accordingly regardless of what was paid for him when.

(Also X isn't a necessary factor at all. You have Y now, not X. X is gone.)
I didnt say you said anything. :) I said that when you boil it down your rationale comes down to that idea. Nothing you have said above has changed my opinion on that.

As previously mentioned, X is necessary if your goal is to make a profit, and X was the starting point. If you choose to throw that variable out & change the starting point, then it becomes a lot harder to determine if you have made a profit. However if you disagree or do not feel that way so be it.

True, just because plenty of owners have been able to sell the 1.01 for a massive haul, does not mean he can, but he wont know if he doesnt try, and settling for a lateral move at best is not a profit.

If you go for a 1 on 1 trade, then sure, it may be unrealistic to expect to make a profit. But nothing says he has to accept any of those offers, or aim for a 1 on 1 trade. He could trade the 1.01/Zeke for multiple pieces. For example, I am in a league where the 1.01 netted the owner Randall Cobb & Jordan Matthews. Now is either piece better than AJ Green, Gronk or Zeke, probably not, but the sum of the whole could be seen as that.

Last year I had Gronk on a team, and I couldnt find a way to sell him for what I wanted directly, so instead I traded him for parts that I thought I would have a better chance of trading for what I wanted. Basically I traded Gronk & Stafford for Luck & Kelce. Then I was able to trade Luck to an owner who was high on Luck for Newton & Allen Robinson (this was all pre-season). So I started with Gronk & Stafford, and ended up with Newton, Allen Robinson & Kelce. And obviously both Newton & Allen Robinson had breakout years.

Based on the OPs post, I do not feel he needs to accept (or settle) for any of those offers, but could & should look for better. He could certainly use them as frameworks if he so chooses. Considering the fact that Elliot has passed Green in ADP, warranted or not, and taking into account future expectations, the league setup & the goal of cashing in off of the hype, I certainly would not recommend he take that offer.

If I had to choose, the best offer to use as a starting point to get a better deal would be #1. I do not know how long the AB or AJG owners have had their WRs but I would be surprised if they were looking to sell low, and based on their offers, that would be my interpretation. On the other hand Miller and the 1.04 makes a decent start, since it is half PPR and RBs have somewhat more value and the OP could go back and reasonably argue for more. One could make a reasonable argument than Miller is worth around the 1.02/1.03. It is also pretty reasonable to note that the 1.01 is a tier ahead of the next tier, and that the 1.02 & 1.03 combined might not be enough to get the 1.01 in some leagues (especially where RBs hold more value). You could also add an argument that Elliot has a good shot (due to his situation) at having a better year than Miller. Therefore something could//should be added to an offer of Miller & 1.04 for 1.01. Provided that last piece(s) was of good quality then you have yourself a package deal that comes across as a profit, and maybe even use the pieces to flip for other players that the owner values more. I expect the 1.04 could be used as a good bargaining chip, depending on how the draft goes down.

Anyways thats all I have to say - will be interested in seeing what direction the OP ends ups taking and how it all plays out!
Please speak to clarion contrarion before considering the use of vetos..

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Re: 4 offers for the 1.1

Postby Favrezilla » Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:20 am

keelsatx wrote:I just acquired the 1.1 via trade (gave up Gronk) with the plan to flip it in the midst of the Zeke hype. There are 2 Cowboys fans in the league and I don't think the previous 1.1 owner shopped around much before offering it for Gronk. I've already gotten 4 offers. Which is best and should I take it or try to get something more?

This is a half-PPR league, so RBs are valued a little higher than usual.
Start 1/2/3/1+Flex

1st offer:
Lamar Miller and 1.4
for
1.1
this is the only one i would consider AND id want another pick
T.1 - 12 team Superflex- 1xQB - 2xRB - 3xWR - 1xTE - 1xSFlex (13th year) ‘21&’22 champ
QB: Mahomes, Burrow, Stafford,
RB: Mixon, Henry, zeke, Rochon
WR: Godwin, Olave, Deebo,DJM, Dell, MW, Doubs
TE: Kelce, Kmet, Musgrave

T.2 - 12 team Superflex- 1xQB - 2xRB - 3xWR - 1xTE - 1xSFlex - 1xWRT Flex (10th year)
QB: Burrow, Baker,Jameis, jimmy, Wentz,
RB: Saquon, Mixon, Rochon, Evans
WR: Pickens, QJ, Thielen, Arob, Juju, ODB, D. Parker, Osborn,
TE: Kincaid, Ertz, Freirmuth, Taysom, JWoods

T.3 - 12 team Superflex- 1xQB - 2xRB - 3xWR - 1xTE - 1xSFlex - 1xWRT Flex (3rd year) ‘21&’22 champ
QB: Mahomes, Burrow, Winston, Darnald
RB: JT, Javonte,Sanders, JCook, Jamaal
WR: Godwin, Waddle, ARSB, Pittman, MW, Jameson, Zay, Claypool, Toney, Terrance
TE: Hock, Fant, McBride


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