Buys and Sells

[evorzan]

Tooting my own horn for a quick second, https://www.fantasypros.com/2016/05/fan ... buyssells/ I have my dynasty buys and sells detailed here.

Writing it out, it got me really thinking, and I think it would make a great forum topic. So those are my buys and sells. Who do you guys like for each?

Recap:
Buys
Devonta Freeman
Michael Crabtree
Isaiah Crowell
Doug Baldwin
Ryan Mathews (handcuffed with Wendell Smallwood)

Sells
Matt Jones
Brandon Marshall
Thomas Rawls
Jordan Reed

[bonscott]

I was actually offered Crow for a 2017 3rd last week and turned it down as I'm not competing and just don't like Crow. BUT more I think about it, it seems dirt cheap and if he does well early could hopefully sell him for higher, maybe a 2nd.

[Westy22]

Always a good thread. Agree on a couple of those:

Buys:
Brian Quick
Isaiah Crowell
Jared Cook
R. Cobb
C Hyde
K Benjamin

Sells:
T.Rawls
D. Lewis
DGB
C. Walford
AP
B. Cooks

[GLCLINE]

Always a good thread. Agree on a couple of those:

Buys:
Brian Quick
Isaiah Crowell
Jared Cook
R. Cobb
C Hyde
K Benjamin

Sells:
T.Rawls
D. Lewis
DGB
C. Walford
AP
B. Cooks

Curious to hear your reasoning on Quick & DGB. I feel like Quick has had his chance & DGB showed promise last year.

[Westy22]

Quick was injured all through TC/Preseason last year and had an awful lead in to the year, no chemistry with QBs. I don't like his chances this year, but as a buy low I think it isn't too bad with Goff there now. They still lack those big WRs and they paid him pretty well on a try and buy. At least after this year we should know about Quick. At his current prices (a 4th or 5th?) it seems a buy to me.

DGB is talented and flashed, but gee his ADP/trade value atm is high for a guy on a team/organisation that just invested big time in two plodding RBs. It isn't like they are about to open it up like Jacksonville did. If I had DGB I would be happy with him, but if somebody offered me his current ADP/rankings value I would happily move on to another asset with less risk. I was also burned by Justin Hunter and guess I lack faith in the Titans to develop him properly.

[pvillebiker]

Nice article & post.

Buys
Devonta Freeman - definitely not undervalued, but where's the upside potential gain off of current cost?
Michael Crabtree - ok
Isaiah Crowell - ok
Doug Baldwin - never been a fan of his boom/bust style, which is unlikely to change in Wilson-ville
Ryan Mathews (handcuffed with Wendell Smallwood) - a 1 year rental only. Smallwood on the other hand is gold value for pennies on the $...for a while longer.

Sells
Matt Jones - yeah, prolly vs his cost.
Brandon Marshall - as a hedge vs Fitzy not coming back. value to a contender though.
Thomas Rawls - probably fair cost/value right now.
Jordan Reed - you know that next big injury is right around the corner. who profits? Niles? He's who I'd pick up for near free now.

A few of my own:

Buys
Duke Johnson - >> Crow, and 60+ catches his rookie year?!
Gio - his normal 50 catch base + alltha' targets that left for Detroit/Atlanty gotta go somewhere. Extra kicker when Eifert goes down early in the year.
Sterling Shepard - still undervalued. 3.5 inches greater vertical leap than Odell. seriously? Eli can definitely use that...and often. Sorry Victor.
Wendell Smallwood - outright, not as hurt-by-game-#3 Matthew's backup. mark my words, this guy is gonna be something in Philly... *this year*.

Sells
Shady McCoy - can't put my finger on it, but this guy is in free fall. A year from now (sooner?) we'll be talking about the Williams & Williams show.
Alshon - something just ain't right. his value << cost right now.
Eifert - injuries, TD regression, OC departure are gonna catch up with him this year. Oh yeah Gio & that Boyd rookie benefit.

Cheers,

[evorzan]

Nice article & post.

Buys
Devonta Freeman - definitely not undervalued, but where's the upside potential gain off of current cost?
Michael Crabtree - ok
Isaiah Crowell - ok
Doug Baldwin - never been a fan of his boom/bust style, which is unlikely to change in Wilson-ville
Ryan Mathews (handcuffed with Wendell Smallwood) - a 1 year rental only. Smallwood on the other hand is gold value for pennies on the $...for a while longer.

Sells
Matt Jones - yeah, prolly vs his cost.
Brandon Marshall - as a hedge vs Fitzy not coming back. value to a contender though.
Thomas Rawls - probably fair cost/value right now.
Jordan Reed - you know that next big injury is right around the corner. who profits? Niles? He's who I'd pick up for near free now.

A few of my own:

Buys
Duke Johnson - >> Crow, and 60+ catches his rookie year?!
Gio - his normal 50 catch base + alltha' targets that left for Detroit/Atlanty gotta go somewhere. Extra kicker when Eifert goes down early in the year.
Sterling Shepard - still undervalued. 3.5 inches greater vertical leap than Odell. seriously? Eli can definitely use that...and often. Sorry Victor.
Wendell Smallwood - outright, not as hurt-by-game-#3 Matthew's backup. mark my words, this guy is gonna be something in Philly... *this year*.

Sells
Shady McCoy - can't put my finger on it, but this guy is in free fall. A year from now (sooner?) we'll be talking about the Williams & Williams show.
Alshon - something just ain't right. his value << cost right now.
Eifert - injuries, TD regression, OC departure are gonna catch up with him this year. Oh yeah Gio & that Boyd rookie benefit.

Cheers,

For Devonta, he's being drafted and valued lower than his projections. http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/rankings/RB/PPR
Baldwin is just a taste thing, it sounds like, between us. I like him.
Mathews is most likely a one year rental, but if you're competing that's a rental you should pay for.

I like your buys, but feel like most of their upside is already baked into their current value. Generally speaking, I try to avoid buying when that is the case. Look at Montee Ball and Cordarelle Patterson a few years ago - guys who had their upside baked into their value without taking into account their full range of outcomes.

Can't argue with the sells as they may have production decline for various reasons, but they're still good players so they're hard to bet against.

[Dookmarriot]

One sell I've been trumpeting (and have taken some lumps for) is Le'Veon Bell. Relatively short track record of elite production, two knee injuries, a weed suspension, coming into a contract year ahead of what looks to be a deep and cheap RB class, the Pitt run game did quite well without him, the burgeoning rap career, and all that Twitter weirdo stuff. Get out while his price is still high.

Will Tye is a player I've picked up in a couple of leagues. Decent athlete and is in a great spot.

Stevie Johnson was a sexy target last year, but everything went pear shaped. I still believe in the situation and the player.

Trevor B knows another player I've been trying to pick up, don't you?

[NYJ]

I'm selling Jarvis Landry. His production relies on volume and that's not something you can rely on in dynasty in general. Plus you have Parker looking to step up to be the clear #1 receiver there, Carroo will steal some targets and they have pass catching RB's in Ajayi and Kenyan Drake. All point towards less targets and he isn't going to replace that with an uptick in TD production IMO.

Selling Thomas Rawls. The Seahawks drafted a RB in what feels like every round of the draft. They're telling us something about his injury, his talent or the committee backfield they may be going to implement.

Buying Stefon Diggs. Yeah, the Vikings drafted Treadwell - big woop. Diggs had a great rookie season despite only starting 9 or 10 games and his value has taken a massive hit since Treadwell arrived.

[Phaded]

Top few for each..

Buys:
Jarvis Landry - He is volume based because of the system that was run in Miami and not because of his capabilities. I don't think Parker is the sure bet to supplant him as the WR to own that so many are touting.

Isaiah Crowell - Hue Jackson will work wonders with this kid. He's always shown flashes but was not able to string it all together. Hue will help him do that.

Crabtree - It is not a fluke he had a better fantasy year than Cooper; I will not be surprised if that happens again this year.

K Benjamin - Grossly undervalued around these parts. Cam is developing very well and Benjamin will come back as the unquestioned WR1.

Will Tye - He is gold for me in my Madden franchise! But on a serious note, crazy athlete in what could become a surprisingly high octane passing attack. Not much competition.

Brandin Cooks - I think the presence of Michael Thomas will only help Cooks get more deep balls. Could be top 10 this time next year.

Sells:
Todd Gurley - The fact he is look at as a mid-to-high first round startup is crazy to me. Yes, he looked good but there was also a lot of bad from him last year. He ended the year in a walking boot for an RB who already has injury concerns. Now is the perfect time to get great value for him.

Ryan Mathews - He is "the guy" in Philly right now but that probably won't last. Get something good for him while you still can.

Amari Cooper - Don't get me wrong. I love Cooper. However, if you can get value anything similar to these parts suggest (I've seen some trades of things like Evans+ & Cooks+ for him); then you have to do it in my opinion.

Sammy Watkins - His injuries have him on a very quick trajectory to a downhill slope. The repeated injury concerns are starting to remind me of once promising guys like Nicks & Harvin.

Thomas Rawls - I just don't buy the hype behind him. Seattle added more backs for a reason; Rawls is only an UDFA himself. Not to mention, the tape does not have me loving him.


I expect a couple of these to be disagreed with which is fine - it'll spark conversation but it is my opinion.

[Johnny Canuck]

Speaking to buying Crowell specifically - are any of you worried about Terrell Watson taking over as the between the tackles guy? Watson seems like a better overall athlete when you factor in his size, and his stats are no joke (albeit against far worse competition at a D2 school). Also he followed Hue over from cincy, and was the first guy Hue signed when he got to Cleveland. So he already knows the offense, and it just kind of seems like the moneyball/metric based sort of play that Cleveland is attempting to implement.

http://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/terrell-watson/

[BoogieOnTheHoodie]

This is Crowell's contract year. Could do well, but that could/would price him out of Cleveland, and does anyone really trust him across the league other than Hue?

Besides, Cleveland has likely two high picks nexts year which means their 2nd rounders will be high too. It's a deep rb class in '17. There's going to be some tantalizing rb talent at the top of round 2 in next year's NFL draft. I could definitely see Cleveland taking one there which would make Crowell obsolete, especially seeing as a decent FA contract could be more expensive than a 2nd round rb.

And then there's the possible ascension of Duke and his market share of touches in the backfield for Crowell investors to be concerned about.

I'd steer clear of anyone but Duke (Watson is fine as a cheap flier) and instead concentrate on watching which wr will be the possession guy opposite Coleman.

Don't forget about Barnidge too. He's got tread on his tires still, but next year's te class is much more intriguing than the '16 class

[Phaded]

Speaking to buying Crowell specifically - are any of you worried about Terrell Watson taking over as the between the tackles guy? Watson seems like a better overall athlete when you factor in his size, and his stats are no joke (albeit against far worse competition at a D2 school). Also he followed Hue over from cincy, and was the first guy Hue signed when he got to Cleveland. So he already knows the offense, and it just kind of seems like the moneyball/metric based sort of play that Cleveland is attempting to implement.

http://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/terrell-watson/

I'm not really worried about Watson at all to be honest. He's an UDFA who has not played in the NFL - hardly something to cause worry. I think saying he knows the offense when he was a practice squad body is a bit of a stretch.

Is he worth a very deep flier to some? Sure. However, I would rather spend a 3rd on a guy like Crow than bank on Watson.

[TheChicken]

My sells of players I owned pre-draft were Langford and Matt Jones. The draft has hopefully raised their value, but now I'm thinking twice about pulling the trigger!

The draft has not filled me with excitement, so I'm seeking veterans or 2017 picks.

[Servo]

I'm going to say Tyler Eifert, considering how dependent he was on TDs last year, I just don't believe that will hold up. I think now would be the perfect time to sell for other valuable pieces.