David Johnson ~ Sell or Hold

[kenny powers]

Hey guys, I'm in a 3 Player PPR Keeper, and grabbed DJ off the wire last year. Jackpot right, pretty much.

Right now, I'll be keeping OBJ and Mike Evans as my 1st n 2nd keepers.

With Arizona adding Mathis to their O-line, it's pretty stacked, and I see no reason to expect DJ to regress much from last year. I also am not envisioning CJ2K to effect his value, and it looks like he could be headed to Miami anyway.

I'm currently projecting to keep DJ as my 3rd, but I'm temped to trade him now cause I don't forsee his value ever being any higher.

I know what I'm asking is primarily contingent upon what I'm getting in return, but as a general rule, I'm hard pressed to unload what could fantasy's top rb for the next couple of years.

Any thoughts and suggestions would be greatly appreciated, thx!

[growskey23]

It'd be foolish to not see what people would be willing to give.

[kenny powers]

True, totally agree.

That being said, I'm looking at narrowing my sights on what I would consider a total concensus "win" in the deal for me. Where the other guy supposedly over pays, and I cash in on him now. Especially considering that I grabbed him via the wire. Absent that, I think I should just probably hold on to him and see what happens.

So... I currently view DJ as easily being valued in the top 5 rb's. He also carries at least back end wr1 value for trade purposes.

So... the overprice I should supposedly shoot for is a backend wr1 and a pick, or someone's 1st pick and an upside dice roll.

If I can get that, I'll probably pull the trigger. If I can't, DJ all the way baby!

Sound about right?

Thx

Anyone else feel free to way in.

[kenny powers]

Go figure, now the same trading partner wants Evans instead of DJ. Fak.

I have those two valued pretty close, especially for 3 Player PPR keeper purposes.

Kinda feel like I'd be giving up on Evans too early, and forsee DJ going nuts bigtime. They'll be 23 and 24 next year respectively, I think.

So... moving forward, unless someone clearly over pays. Hold steady and hope to hit pay dirt with the guys I've got. OBJ Evans and DJ.

I say it like that because I thought I was golden last year in keeping Luck and Jordan Matthews. Turned out, not so much.

Peace

[NY CAT]

See what others have to offer however, he is a keeper!!!!

STUD!!!

[Unicorn92]

Easy hold DJ is a futur beast

[zelldawg26]

Okay here's my thing about DJ which everybody has and will overlook. CJ2K started the year off with 20 plus carries through the first 8 or 9 weeks. He killed it. Looked like his old self, and I'm sure the line had just a little to do with that kind of performance.

Within that time, Ellington was hobbled all last season (basically 7 weeks). Within the time of week 12 and week 16, neither of those backs were healthy and Arians had no choice but to see what he had and if DJ could handle the load. He destroyed the Eagles defense and helped anyone that owned him last year probably take their team to victory with 3 TDs and some 180 yards that game. Remind you, Eagles D, which looked like they gave up after the first 20 minutes of the game. Their season was done and it was inevitable that they weren't getting in..

Now, I'm not saying DJ isn't awesome. He looked great whenever they put him in. But people are forgetting that the Cardinals just resigned CJ2K, and at the same time, Ellington (who looks fantastic when healthy and in space) is not gonna be warming a bench next year.

So do I think DJ is going to be the bell cow back? Definitely, and he deserves it. Do I think DJ (who was thrown into the most incredible situation possible for a rookie back) might just be a little over valued looking at the 16 season of a full healthy backfield? I have to say yes. I will continue to get crap for that, but they loved CJ2K and he's back in the fight for carries with their healthy scat back Ellington.

So back to whether you sell or hold. If it were me, I'd say to sell, and only because you can get TOO MUCH for a guy who people are ignoring or just not realizing last season's situation DJ found himself in.

Ask yourself: If Joique Bell and Theo Riddick were injured for the year, do you think Ameer's numbers might have looked a little different if they had no choice but to hand him the rock 20+ times?

That's my 2 cents with David Johnson. Sell and sell for stupid value.

[kenny powers]

Well put. I agree with your logic.

Imo, DJ will be drafted as a top 5 rb. And if I can grab a top 10 WR for him, the smart money says I should take the deal with the thinking being that the WR is the safer of the two positions.

Big but tho..., DJ could very well go bananas. If that occurs, it'll be a trade I unquestionably will regret.

Decisions decisions...

[PingPwng]

I just got Dez for Johnson. I feel the same way in that he could blow up, but with my roster I couldn't NOT sell him.

I had:

12 Team PPR 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE/1Flex
QB- Cam/Flacco
WR- Evans/ Parker/ T. Benjamin/ Moncrief/ K. Aiken/ J. Gordon/ R. Matthews/ J. Strong/ J.J. Nelson
RB- Gurley/ L. Bell/ David Johnson/ T. Rawls/A. Morris/ Buck Allen
TE- T. Eifert/ L. Green

I got a good sell out of him to shore up my WR. But again, my situation is unique in that I got my hands on all the top RBs. TBH I think I got a steal. The guy had Julio Jones and A. Robinson in addition to Dez, so he could afford the trade too.

Like it's been said, David Johnson could blow up. I had a unique situation where I felt I needed to trade him.

[kenny powers]

In your position, I'd have swung that one as well. That's the ballpark value I'm looking at for DJ. A back end top 10 wr.

[Shoreline Steamers]

Keeping 3 in a 1.0 PPR I'd want to go in with three WR's as my keepers if I can hold three likely top-10 WR's (probably why your trade partner was interested in Evans, and not in Johnson). If you can sell DJ for that 3rd WR that's the way I'd go. Worry about RB's after you've built a killer WR group.

And I'm a fan of DJ.

[kenny powers]

Thx for your input dude.

I'm targeting Hopkins, Dez, Jeffery n Walkins. So far, no takers. I won't take any less.

I guess it's hurry up n wait.

[Shoreline Steamers]

It's a frustratingly slow time of year in some leagues (like mine). So while there's not a lot of interest/activity now, you'll probably have more luck drumming up discussion post-draft and the closer we get to camps. I think some people in my league refuse to do much of anything until the NFL draft is done and we know the landing spots and competition that's been brought in for the players already on our rosters. I like your targets at WR too, so good luck!