Way Way Too Early 2022 Draft Thread

[Jigga94]

I hate to pump the hall hype train but Iowa state actually kinda does have a RB pedigree. As in Matt Campbell does. Little Campbell RB playback for you chronologically..

Breeze Hall (Iow State)
David Montgemory (Iowa State)
Kareem Hunt (Toldeo)
Jalen Parmele(Toldeo)
Chester Taylor (Toledo)

All of those guys are NFL RB's he recruited and coached up in college. Obviously some are better than others but considering the schools the fact they are in the NFL at all shows something. Not a bad accomplishment over 10years or so.

Monty and Hunt are good names. How was Campbell related to the other 2 though? He started coaching at Toledo in 2009 (HC in 2012). Taylor was drafted in 2002 and Parmele 2008. I mean, even better if he wasn't involved with them because neither had careers that I'd be happy spending a 1st on

[FantasyFreak]

I think rookie fever is hitting hard and would be a seller at #1 this year if the Hall hype goes wild. He did test better athletically than I would have thought, but am still ho hum about him. Possibly the top RB in the class, but not elite and shouldn't even be in the same post as JT (Iknow, not your post but the one earlier).

Also, he played for Iowa State, not Iowa. big 12 D's not the same as BIG 10 D's.

Yeah, I said he didn't quite have his profile. It's close. It's a top tier profile. You are free to determine what you want about JT vs Hall, but metrically speaking, they are in the same league. Hall also has a better receiving profile. I never once said he was better than JT. FWIW, I have no shot at Hall in any of my leagues, because my teams tend to draft at the end of the round, not the beginning. I'm just stating the facts on his profile. It's not like Hall came out of left field, either. He was a top, or even the top RB prospect in the devy community for this class for quite a while.

[Jigga94]

Personally, Hall has been my RB1 in this class for a bit. Was always penciled in but his measurables seal it. Don't think I've seen many RB with a 40 in vert? I try to not pay too close attention to 39 vs 40 etc so long as it's not 32 lol

I don't think he's in JTs realm as a prospect though. Similar measurables, but JT has a higher BMI which = a better speed score with the same 40. I don't see the top end speed with Hall whereas it's so obvious when watching JT.

JT also had almost 2000 more yards in college in a tougher conference. Hall does seem like a more polished pass catcher. Nearly 2x the amount of Receptions as JT, but JT did start to catch a lot more his JR year. I don't think this closes the gap on the other parts of their profiles though.

Hall is still my 1.01 and a very good RB. I just don't see generational talent

[Sriracha]

Personally, Hall has been my RB1 in this class for a bit. Was always penciled in but his measurables seal it. Don't think I've seen many RB with a 40 in vert? I try to not pay too close attention to 39 vs 40 etc so long as it's not 32 lol

I don't think he's in JTs realm as a prospect though. Similar measurables, but JT has a higher BMI which = a better speed score with the same 40. I don't see the top end speed with Hall whereas it's so obvious when watching JT.

JT also had almost 2000 more yards in college in a tougher conference. Hall does seem like a more polished pass catcher. Nearly 2x the amount of Receptions as JT, but JT did start to catch a lot more his JR year. I don't think this closes the gap on the other parts of their profiles though.

Hall is still my 1.01 and a very good RB. I just don't see generational talent

The term generational talent gets thrown around a little too much.. but he's definitely an elite talent -- which is more than enough to give him league winning upside in the right situation.

[honcho55]

Agree that Hall is on par with Harris as a prospect (couldn’t be bothered to quote whoever brought it up)

This highlights how the top of this class is meh. I grabbed Najee at 7 or something in SF last year. I’ve pencilled in Hall at 1.01 this year (QB could easily slide in still)

Still loving the depth though.

[alewilliam789]

While we may all be down on Spiller (including me, he has some redeeming qualities like his receiving ability and quick feet.

If Josh Jacobs can be a RB1 in fantasy with his almost non-existent athleticism, I’m sure Spiller can succeed at the next level with his subpar testing. I still do like the man’s tape.

[mild]

While we may all be down on Spiller (including me, he has some redeeming qualities like his receiving ability and quick feet.

If Josh Jacobs can be a RB1 in fantasy with his almost non-existent athleticism, I’m sure Spiller can succeed at the next level with his subpar testing. I still do like the man’s tape.

He was reportedly dealing with a strained abdominal. He intends to "prove why he belongs in the top tier of rookie RB's" at his pro day in a couple weeks.

Personally I love it, as I'm holding 1.08.

And even if he doesn't test well - his best strengths are his pass catching and his pass protection (he's the best in this rookie class at that).

I could easily see him being a Najee-style prospect - not particularly fast, not particularly shifty - but capable of staying on the field all 3 downs.

[Yarnith]

I hate to pump the hall hype train but Iowa state actually kinda does have a RB pedigree. As in Matt Campbell does. Little Campbell RB playback for you chronologically..

Breeze Hall (Iow State)
David Montgemory (Iowa State)
Kareem Hunt (Toldeo)
Jalen Parmele(Toldeo)
Chester Taylor (Toledo)

All of those guys are NFL RB's he recruited and coached up in college. Obviously some are better than others but considering the schools the fact they are in the NFL at all shows something. Not a bad accomplishment over 10years or so.

Monty and Hunt are good names. How was Campbell related to the other 2 though? He started coaching at Toledo in 2009 (HC in 2012). Taylor was drafted in 2002 and Parmele 2008. I mean, even better if he wasn't involved with them because neither had careers that I'd be happy spending a 1st on

No you are right he was in Bowling Green for the last 2 I missed that when I was skimming back. Any RB making it onto a team in the NFL draft from a school like Toledo is something. Schools with 2 and 3 star prospects aren't supposed to have NFL level players even backup ones. Matter of degrees and speaks on coaching up players beyond expected ceiling. Its wrong in this case regardless. My mistake.

[Cameron Giles]

I hesitate calling anyone a Najee-style prospect unless they're projected to get Najee-style volume and playing time.

[Rondalebaby]

Just finishing up my WR model and it looks like a very deep class

My inputs are market share of receiving yards, yards per team pass attempt, size and draft capital

Don't care about athleticism except for isolating "tier 0" perfect prospects from normal tier 1 guys (because tbf all else being equal I'd rather have the more athletic guy than the less athletic--it's just that all else is rarely ever equal)

Having gone back to 2010 I have not found athleticism to matter and am realizing how much of a mistake I was making overvaluing it

Based on current positions (I'll use Mock Draft Database consensus big board this time instead of Grinding the Mocks)

Tier 1: Treylon Burks (12), Drake London (17), Garrett Wilson (14)--though with a tumble draft day it's possible he falls to tier 2

Tier 2: Jameson Williams (29)--though a chance of falling to tier 3 if he tumbles, David Bell (47)--actually has a chance to rise to tier 1 but probably won't get the draft capital, George Pickens (49), Wandale Robinson (63)

Tier 3: Jahan Dotson (33)--has a chance to rise to tier 2 with the right draft capital, Chris Olave (23)--has a chance to rise to tier 2 if better than expected capital, Justyn Ross (82)--has a chance to rise to tier 2, Jalen Tolbert (68), Khalil Shakir (81), Skyy Moore (79)--chance to rise to tier 2 actually for Moore

Tier 4: John Metchie (64), Alec Pierce (104)--with comp picks this is the end of the 3rd round

Tier 5: Romeo Doubs (day 3), Bo Melton (day 3)--I'll be honest: never even heard of this guy until my model liked him

Note: Do not have the stats for Christian Watson yet--EDIT: from what I can tell he has a tier 3 profile with a shot at tier 2 status

This is how previous classes look like

2021
Tier 0: Jamarr Chase
Tier 1: Rashod Bateman, Elijah Moore
Tier 2: Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith, Rondale Moore
Tier 3: Terrace Marshall, Kadarius Toney, Dyami Brown, Nico Collins
Tier 4: D'Wayne Eskridge, Tutu Atwell, Josh Palmer, Amari Rodgers, Anthony Schwartz
Tier 5: Amon Ra St Brown, Tylan Wallace

2020
Tier 0: Justin Jefferson (the dynasty community was wayyy too low on him)
Tier 1: Ceedee Lamb, Tee Higgins
Tier 2: Jerry Jeudy, Jalen Reagor, Brandon Aiyuk, Laviska Shenault, KJ Hamler, Bryan Edwards
Tier 3: Henry Ruggs, Denzel Mims
Tier 4: Michael Pittman Jr, Van Jefferson, Chase Claypool, Devin Duvernay
Tier 5: Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Antonio Gandy Golden, Tyler Johnson, Quez Watkins, Isaiah Hodgins

2019
Tier 1: N'Keal Harry (lol), AJ Brown
Tier 2: Marquise Brown, Andy Isabella
Tier 3: Deebo Samuel, JJ Arcega Whiteside, DK Metcalf
Tier 4: Mecole Hardman, Parris Campbell, Diontae Johnson, Jalen Hurd, Terry Mclaurin, Miles Boykin
Tier 5: Greg Dortch, John Ursua

2018
Tier 0: DJ Moore
Tier 1: Christian Kirk
Tier 2: Calvin Ridley, Courtland Sutton, James Washington, Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller
Tier 3: DJ Chark
Tier 4: Dante Pettis, Trequan Smith
Tier 5: Keke Coutee, Antonio Callaway, Jaleel Scott

2017
Tier 1: Corey Davis, Juju Smith Schuster
Tier 2: Mike Williams, Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay
Tier 3: John Ross, Zay Jones, Curtis Samuel, Taywan Taylor, Chad Williams
Tier 4: Ardarius Stewart, Carlos Henderson, Amara Darboh
Tier 5: Josh Reynolds, Isaiah Ford

2016
Tier 1: Tyler Boyd
Tier 2: Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, Sterling Shepard
Tier 3: Josh Doctson, Michael Thomas, Laquon Treadwell, Leonte Caroo
Tier 4: Braxton Miller
Tier 5: Tajae Sharpe, Rashard Higgins, Mike Thomas

When setting a hit to equal a top 24 season:

As a whole going back to 2010 and excluding 2021 for now tier 0 prospects (others not shown include Amari Cooper, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks, Dez Bryant, AJ Green and Julio Jones) have a 100% hit rate--though Watkins as a "hit" can be debated, tier 1 prospects have a 70-75% hit rate, tier 2 guys have around a 45-50% hit rate, tier 3 guys around 25-30%, tier 4 15-20% and tier 5 5-10%

Trying to go as far back into the mid 2000s to provide a bigger sample size of prospects

Elite post.

That’s my tier 1 as well, which isn’t surprising seeing as your tier 0/1 is the same as mine from last year as well

Jefferson being such an obvious elite prospect in hindsight sent me back to the drawing board on how I look at prospects too lol can probably thank him for landing Elijah Moore at his price despite average “film” grades

[alewilliam789]

While we may all be down on Spiller (including me, he has some redeeming qualities like his receiving ability and quick feet.

If Josh Jacobs can be a RB1 in fantasy with his almost non-existent athleticism, I’m sure Spiller can succeed at the next level with his subpar testing. I still do like the man’s tape.

He was reportedly dealing with a strained abdominal. He intends to "prove why he belongs in the top tier of rookie RB's" at his pro day in a couple weeks.

Personally I love it, as I'm holding 1.08.

And even if he doesn't test well - his best strengths are his pass catching and his pass protection (he's the best in this rookie class at that).

I could easily see him being a Najee-style prospect - not particularly fast, not particularly shifty - but capable of staying on the field all 3 downs.

Yeah not sure about the Najee comp because imo I think he had some elite explosiveness (verts/broad) and his hand time was like a 4.45 so more likely under 4.6 at like 225+.

I liked the David Montgomery comparison from above. I would rate him somewhere between Montgomery and Jacobs. Not an elite back, but will be a solid RB2 for your team with work.

Worse case is Yeldon which Daniel Jeremiah brought up.

[AZK]

While we may all be down on Spiller (including me, he has some redeeming qualities like his receiving ability and quick feet.

If Josh Jacobs can be a RB1 in fantasy with his almost non-existent athleticism, I’m sure Spiller can succeed at the next level with his subpar testing. I still do like the man’s tape.

He was reportedly dealing with a strained abdominal. He intends to "prove why he belongs in the top tier of rookie RB's" at his pro day in a couple weeks.

Personally I love it, as I'm holding 1.08.

And even if he doesn't test well - his best strengths are his pass catching and his pass protection (he's the best in this rookie class at that).

I could easily see him being a Najee-style prospect - not particularly fast, not particularly shifty - but capable of staying on the field all 3 downs.

He's a bum according to some on here. Just ignore Spiller since he was the only RB that skipped combine drills.

[mild]

I hesitate calling anyone a Najee-style prospect unless they're projected to get Najee-style volume and playing time.

I'm not projecting the landing spot and workload. Happy to let the mocks and our imaginations do that.

I'm projecting the 3-down skillset, because that's what he has. Whether he gets to use it: much like Josh Jacobs, a completely different question.

I don't believe there's a better pass-protector and route runner than Spiller in this years crop of the top RB's. I'll refine and modify this opinion as we move forward in the process, but I can tell you it's stood out to me already - and by the inverse, Kenneth Walker's extremely bad passing game ability has also stood out. (Luckily his vision and ability to cut through the line is probably best-in-class; he is projecting as a very good 2-down back to me at this point)

[FantasyFreak]

I hesitate calling anyone a Najee-style prospect unless they're projected to get Najee-style volume and playing time.

Never been impressed. Spiller is just ridiculously average. Glad to let someone else waste a pick on him.

[FantasyFreak]

Agree that Hall is on par with Harris as a prospect (couldn’t be bothered to quote whoever brought it up)

This highlights how the top of this class is meh. I grabbed Najee at 7 or something in SF last year. I’ve pencilled in Hall at 1.01 this year (QB could easily slide in still)

Still loving the depth though.

Hall>Harris as a prospect on many levels, though. Athleticism, dominator rating. That, and he's entering the league over 2 full years younger than Harris. Without knowing landing spot or what Harris did in the NFL, Hall would be the top analytics prospect in this years class and last years class combined.