Unpopular Opinion: You will waste your premium 1st round pick on Kyle Pitts.

[Kurtrambis1]

Has he? As a head coach, his NFL record is 18-25. He's been ok. I'd say his defense has out performed, but his offense has been quite bad.

25th in 2023 in scoring
15th in 2022 in scoring
26th in 2021 in scoring

Mind you, this is despite spending a very early first on a TE in 2021, a WR in 2022, and a RB in 2023. But here we are watching Tyler Allgeier, Mack Hollins, and Jonnu Smith featured. I won't say incompetence, but gross misuse of capital is certainly in play.

Often, when high draft picks fail to produce as expected, we say they were bad picks. It seems very odd that so many are so quick to say these were great picks, but the coaching staff has mismanaged all three top skill positions.

I'm not saying Arthur Smith is Andy Reid. I'm just saying he's a competent coach and schemer. If Pitts/London/Bijan aren't producing as we expected them to, perhaps some of the blames falls on the players themselves? Maybe?

I mean, I've seen Smith use players to good effect other times. Do we think he's completely forgotten how to coach football?

Part of the hate Smith has received from the fantasy community is self-inflicted but I agree... it's interesting that people assume he's an idiot for not using the highly drafted skill position players as much as they want him to; especially when he's proven to utilize truly elite talent like AJB and Derrick Henry at TEN.

Is it so hard for people to understand that even talented players have strengths and weaknesses? Jonnu Smith is #3 in the NFL in YPRR for a TE and is a significantly better YAC TE than Pitts.. the fact that he's being used closer to the line of scrimmage is just the optimal usage of their current talents. Giving those touches to Pitts because he was drafted at #4 overall would be coaching malpractice. Pitts strengths as a down field threat and man beater are worth signifcantly more than Jonnu's strengths -- which is why he was picked so highly but their QBs just can't get him the ball where he wins -- downfield.

Drake London is a solid young WR but he's far from the elite talent people are propping him up as. You'd think he wasn't using AJB or Justin Jefferson or Jamarr Chase with the way people are talking about him not getting targets.

Agree with a lot of this post. It is easy for us to criticize from the couch and complain because our fantasy players aren’t having success.

But Arthur Smith seems to be forgetting Michael Scott’s KISS method of “Keep it simple stupid”. Players have strengths and weaknesses but he’s not utilizing those strengths in the red zone properly. That’s not just me or the fantasy community bitching. They are near the bottom of the league in red zone conversion and it’s costing them wins. Kyle Pitts iso fade against a corner? Bijan power run? Nope… jet sweep to Smith. If they’re winning in real life we have no room to complain, but they’re losing.

I’d also rather have the Eagles version of AJ Brown than the one Arthur Smith gave us…

[81-]

Build around a stud te. Qb's can be had. Wr's are plenty. Rb's are a dime a dozen..... It might be the most scarce position. Draft em high and draft them often

[mild]

With Kelce on bye, thinking I will fire up Pitts this week. Ready for a 2 for 20 line.

I'm right there with you.

Me three.

Love all my fellow "Kelce until the wheels fall off and pray Pitts is a thing by then" strategists.

[Sriracha]

Agree with a lot of this post. It is easy for us to criticize from the couch and complain because our fantasy players aren’t having success.

But Arthur Smith seems to be forgetting Michael Scott’s KISS method of “Keep it simple stupid”. Players have strengths and weaknesses but he’s not utilizing those strengths in the red zone properly. That’s not just me or the fantasy community bitching. They are near the bottom of the league in red zone conversion and it’s costing them wins. Kyle Pitts iso fade against a corner? Bijan power run? Nope… jet sweep to Smith. If they’re winning in real life we have no room to complain, but they’re losing.

I’d also rather have the Eagles version of AJ Brown than the one Arthur Smith gave us…

I can't really speak to their redzone usage as it's hard to tell if defenses are keying in on the 6'6 hyper athletic TE with ball skills in the redzone and at least according to Arthur Smith Allegier is just a better short yardage RB than Bijan (which is admittedly hard to believe but not impossible).

As for AJB as a Titan vs an Eagle.. he's largely the same player. What's changed is that he got a QB upgrade and is in a higher passing volume offense. His target % is actually lower as an Eagle than when he was a Titan (but that's largely because he's facing stiffer target competition, imo)

[mild]

As for AJB as a Titan vs an Eagle.. he's largely the same player. What's changed is that he got a QB upgrade and is in a higher passing volume offense. His target % is actually lower as an Eagle than when he was a Titan (but that's largely because he's facing stiffer target competition, imo)

Where are you getting these stats dawg? Or are you just stat freestyling on a more vibes-based stat economy?

According to PlayerProfiler, 2023 is the highest target share of AJ Browns career.

2023 - PHI - 32.4% target share
2022 - PHI - 29.0% target share
2021 - TEN - 27.0% target share
2020 - TEN - 25.9% target share
2019 - TEN - 19.5% target share

If there's one thing I'd point to this year for AJB - just personally speaking - it's his first-read target share on this elite Philly offense. He is dominating Devonta Smith and Goedart like never before.

Hurts is looking his way at a near league-leading pace on passing downs.

Season-high 60% first-read target share for A.J. Brown in Week 9. He just continues to push into the stratosphere.

On the year, the only player with a higher first-read rate than AJB (41.6%) is Garrett Wilson (45.7%). This type of volume in Philly's offense is cheat codes.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1721662 ... 84137?s=20

[Sriracha]

As for AJB as a Titan vs an Eagle.. he's largely the same player. What's changed is that he got a QB upgrade and is in a higher passing volume offense. His target % is actually lower as an Eagle than when he was a Titan (but that's largely because he's facing stiffer target competition, imo)

Where are you getting these stats dawg? Or are you just stat freestyling on a more vibes-based stat economy?

According to PlayerProfiler, 2023 is the highest target share of AJ Browns career.

2023 - PHI - 32.4% target share
2022 - PHI - 29.0% target share
2021 - TEN - 27.0% target share
2020 - TEN - 25.9% target share
2019 - TEN - 19.5% target share

If there's one thing I'd point to this year for AJB - just personally speaking - it's his first-read target share on this elite Philly offense. He is dominating Devonta Smith and Goedart like never before.

Hurts is looking his way at a near league-leading pace on passing downs.

Season-high 60% first-read target share for A.J. Brown in Week 9. He just continues to push into the stratosphere.

On the year, the only player with a higher first-read rate than AJB (41.6%) is Garrett Wilson (45.7%). This type of volume in Philly's offense is cheat codes.

https://x.com/jagibbs_23/status/1721662 ... 84137?s=20

I was using target rate, not share because he played through his fair share of injuries in TEN

2023 - PHI - 28.4% target rate
2022 - PHI - 29.4% target rate
2021 - TEN - 32.9% target rate
2020 - TEN - 27.2% target rate

[Anteaters]

Has he? As a head coach, his NFL record is 18-25. He's been ok. I'd say his defense has out performed, but his offense has been quite bad.

25th in 2023 in scoring
15th in 2022 in scoring
26th in 2021 in scoring

Mind you, this is despite spending a very early first on a TE in 2021, a WR in 2022, and a RB in 2023. But here we are watching Tyler Allgeier, Mack Hollins, and Jonnu Smith featured. I won't say incompetence, but gross misuse of capital is certainly in play.

Often, when high draft picks fail to produce as expected, we say they were bad picks. It seems very odd that so many are so quick to say these were great picks, but the coaching staff has mismanaged all three top skill positions.

I'm not saying Arthur Smith is Andy Reid. I'm just saying he's a competent coach and schemer. If Pitts/London/Bijan aren't producing as we expected them to, perhaps some of the blames falls on the players themselves? Maybe?

I mean, I've seen Smith use players to good effect other times. Do we think he's completely forgotten how to coach football?

Part of the hate Smith has received from the fantasy community is self-inflicted but I agree... it's interesting that people assume he's an idiot for not using the highly drafted skill position players as much as they want him to; especially when he's proven to utilize truly elite talent like AJB and Derrick Henry at TEN.

Is it so hard for people to understand that even talented players have strengths and weaknesses? Jonnu Smith is #3 in the NFL in YPRR for a TE and is a significantly better YAC TE than Pitts.. the fact that he's being used closer to the line of scrimmage is just the optimal usage of their current talents. Giving those touches to Pitts because he was drafted at #4 overall would be coaching malpractice. Pitts strengths as a down field threat and man beater are worth signifcantly more than Jonnu's strengths -- which is why he was picked so highly but their QBs just can't get him the ball where he wins -- downfield.

Drake London is a solid young WR but he's far from the elite talent people are propping him up as. You'd think he wasn't using AJB or Justin Jefferson or Jamarr Chase with the way people are talking about him not getting targets.

Agreed
Agreed
and
Agreed.

[Oddball456]

With Kelce on bye, thinking I will fire up Pitts this week. Ready for a 2 for 20 line.

I'm right there with you.

Me three.

Love all my fellow "Kelce until the wheels fall off and pray Pitts is a thing by then" strategists.

I was way off, 3 for 30 instead.

[FantasyFreak]

I'm right there with you.

Me three.

Love all my fellow "Kelce until the wheels fall off and pray Pitts is a thing by then" strategists.

I was way off, 3 for 30 instead.

Hopefully that's it for Arthur.

[Cameron Giles]

Watching the Cardinals use McBride like an elite TE while the Falcons continue to do whatever it is they're doing with Pitts was a lot of fun

[Anteaters]

Watching the Cardinals use McBride like an elite TE while the Falcons continue to do whatever it is they're doing with Pitts was a lot of fun

Maybe the Falcons will trade for Kyler and all their receivers will produce better stats.

[abloom]

With Kelce on bye, thinking I will fire up Pitts this week. Ready for a 2 for 20 line.

I'm right there with you.

Me three.

Love all my fellow "Kelce until the wheels fall off and pray Pitts is a thing by then" strategists.

I will regretfully admit that I wish I had drafted chase instead of Pitts but I had already drafted chase in one league and had Pitts just behind him. With having kelce already I figured I could see this amazing transition from one dominating TE to the next dominating TE. Year 1 looked promising. Year two and three have been a waste so far. Pitts starts for me pretty much once a year unless kelce is injured.

Hopefully offense improves next year or hopefully they don't sign his 5th year option.

[mild]

Hopefully offense improves next year or hopefully they don't sign his 5th year option.

Not only will they almost assuredly exercise his 5th year option - but they'll likely franchise tag him too, given the difference between a TE tag and a WR tag. (basically a half price discount)

Teams have inquired before about him both in the offseason and at the deadline and the Falcons have turned them away. "He's a big part of our future" or some-such line.

Realistically, we need any-or-all of the following to see any change in the status quo:

- Arthur Smith fired for a coach that schemes for his best players (a dream of Ben Johnson)
- An actually-good QB to miraculously fall from the heavens and onto the Falcons roster (a dream of Michael Penix)
- Kyle Pitts to refuse to play for the Falcons any longer and demand a trade (a dream of pure chaos)

Depressed yet? Yeah... same.

[FantasyFreak]

Tons of reputable FF people saying he's been playing hurt all year, and he is definitely not moving the same, as pre-injury. All the routes are downfield, and the ones he's succeeding on, are outbreaking to the left (not cutting on the bad knee). Watching his film, he's clearly not moving the same.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear about him getting clean up surgery this off season.

[gogobradyarm]

I 100% regret taking Pitts 1.03 over Chase but hindsight in 20/20. There still is a chance Pitts turns into a solid TE1, but I don't think he is the next Kelce anymore. He looks awkward, lanky, and the opposite of LaPorta.