Dynasty League Football Forum

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:03 pm Alright, just to clarify a bit at least how I calculate value using Worst-starter method as far as the values between TE and WR.

First, the assumptions. These are different for all leagues and value is league dependent. If our league was a 12 team league, we start 2 WRs required and 1 TE required with 2 flex spots, 1 of which can be a TE. Our scoring is graduated ppr (to enhance TE value as well as diminish RB receiving points) so WRs get 1 ppr and TEs get 1.5 ppr.

I also use the top 3 at each position as well as bottom 3 at each position and average to reduce the effects of an outlier. I also use 3 years data so have more robust data sets as well as looking for trends. So with WRs I’m looking the average of WRs 1-3 vs WRs 22-24 (start 2 WRs in a 12 team league meaning WR24 is the worst starter) against the average of TEs 1-3 vs TEs 10-12 (start 1 TE meaning TE12 is the worst starter). For those of you wondering about flex, that would be WR25 and lower thrown into a pool with TE13 and lower as well as RBs.

Now, FWIW this is very simplistic and I actually get more into the weeds but for our purposes here this will do to understand and assess value.

3 year data WRs 1-3 averaged 24.19 ppg. WRs 22-24 averaged 14.59 ppg. That means top WR value is 24.19-14.59 = 9.6 ppg

3 year data TEs 1-3 averaged 18.73 ppg. TEs 10-12 averaged 12.23 ppg. That means top TE value is 18.73-12.23 = 6.5 ppg

So WRs absolutely outscore equivalent number TE. The question though is when do my top TEs values become equivalent to WRs? So I look at WR scoring where they hit that 6.5 ppg value, which is going to the the lower end WR scores (14.59 ppw) plus the 6.5 ppw top TE value, or in other words the WRs that are averaging around 21.1 ppw.

That means when I’m looking at equivalent value, that is when my top 3 TE has as much scoring difference over the TE10-12 group as my WR5 has over my WR22-24. So when I’m looking for equivalent value I should be willing to trade my WR5 for an opponents’ TE2. That’s a fair trade.

However, when I get to come up against someone who doesn’t understand value like OS doesn’t, I may offer up my guy who is WR12 for his TE2 and he’ll trade that thinking he’s going to score more points than me when I’m actually coming out ahead because I’m getting better value and I’ll outscore my opponents H2H by more with my TE differential.

That’s how value works. It allows you to compare different starting positions by how much each will outscore your opponents at each position vs their players at that position.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:17 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:03 pm Alright, just to clarify a bit at least how I calculate value using Worst-starter method as far as the values between TE and WR.

First, the assumptions. These are different for all leagues and value is league dependent. If our league was a 12 team league, we start 2 WRs required and 1 TE required with 2 flex spots, 1 of which can be a TE. Our scoring is graduated ppr (to enhance TE value as well as diminish RB receiving points) so WRs get 1 ppr and TEs get 1.5 ppr.

I also use the top 3 at each position as well as bottom 3 at each position and average to reduce the effects of an outlier. I also use 3 years data so have more robust data sets as well as looking for trends. So with WRs I’m looking the average of WRs 1-3 vs WRs 22-24 (start 2 WRs in a 12 team league meaning WR24 is the worst starter) against the average of TEs 1-3 vs TEs 10-12 (start 1 TE meaning TE12 is the worst starter). For those of you wondering about flex, that would be WR25 and lower thrown into a pool with TE13 and lower as well as RBs.

Now, FWIW this is very simplistic and I actually get more into the weeds but for our purposes here this will do to understand and assess value.

3 year data WRs 1-3 averaged 24.19 ppg. WRs 22-24 averaged 14.59 ppg. That means top WR value is 24.19-14.59 = 9.6 ppg

3 year data TEs 1-3 averaged 18.73 ppg. TEs 10-12 averaged 12.23 ppg. That means top TE value is 18.73-12.23 = 6.5 ppg

So WRs absolutely outscore equivalent number TE. The question though is when do my top TEs values become equivalent to WRs? So I look at WR scoring where they hit that 6.5 ppg value, which is going to the the lower end WR scores (14.59 ppw) plus the 6.5 ppw top TE value, or in other words the WRs that are averaging around 21.1 ppw.

That means when I’m looking at equivalent value, that is when my top 3 TE has as much scoring difference over the TE10-12 group as my WR5 has over my WR22-24. So when I’m looking for equivalent value I should be willing to trade my WR5 for an opponents’ TE2. That’s a fair trade.

However, when I get to come up against someone who doesn’t understand value like OS doesn’t, I may offer up my guy who is WR12 for his TE2 and he’ll trade that thinking he’s going to score more points than me when I’m actually coming out ahead because I’m getting better value and I’ll outscore my opponents H2H by more with my TE differential.

That’s how value works. It allows you to compare different starting positions by how much each will outscore your opponents at each position vs their players at that position.

Wait, so a scoring system tailored to increase TE scoring (1.5 TE ppr) bolsters their value?!? Groundbreaking work BB. Thank you for your service.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:02 pm Do people need an explanation of value? Production over replacement at acquisition cost is fantasy 101.

The original statement was safety and value are not synonymous. We are looking for predictive, actionable advantages. Simply drafting first round TEs at cost hasn't show to be that.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:17 pm

Bronco Billy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 10, 2024 1:03 pm Alright, just to clarify a bit at least how I calculate value using Worst-starter method as far as the values between TE and WR.

First, the assumptions. These are different for all leagues and value is league dependent. If our league was a 12 team league, we start 2 WRs required and 1 TE required with 2 flex spots, 1 of which can be a TE. Our scoring is graduated ppr (to enhance TE value as well as diminish RB receiving points) so WRs get 1 ppr and TEs get 1.5 ppr.

I also use the top 3 at each position as well as bottom 3 at each position and average to reduce the effects of an outlier. I also use 3 years data so have more robust data sets as well as looking for trends. So with WRs I’m looking the average of WRs 1-3 vs WRs 22-24 (start 2 WRs in a 12 team league meaning WR24 is the worst starter) against the average of TEs 1-3 vs TEs 10-12 (start 1 TE meaning TE12 is the worst starter). For those of you wondering about flex, that would be WR25 and lower thrown into a pool with TE13 and lower as well as RBs.

Now, FWIW this is very simplistic and I actually get more into the weeds but for our purposes here this will do to understand and assess value.

3 year data WRs 1-3 averaged 24.19 ppg. WRs 22-24 averaged 14.59 ppg. That means top WR value is 24.19-14.59 = 9.6 ppg

3 year data TEs 1-3 averaged 18.73 ppg. TEs 10-12 averaged 12.23 ppg. That means top TE value is 18.73-12.23 = 6.5 ppg

So WRs absolutely outscore equivalent number TE. The question though is when do my top TEs values become equivalent to WRs? So I look at WR scoring where they hit that 6.5 ppg value, which is going to the the lower end WR scores (14.59 ppw) plus the 6.5 ppw top TE value, or in other words the WRs that are averaging around 21.1 ppw.

That means when I’m looking at equivalent value, that is when my top 3 TE has as much scoring difference over the TE10-12 group as my WR5 has over my WR22-24. So when I’m looking for equivalent value I should be willing to trade my WR5 for an opponents’ TE2. That’s a fair trade.

However, when I get to come up against someone who doesn’t understand value like OS doesn’t, I may offer up my guy who is WR12 for his TE2 and he’ll trade that thinking he’s going to score more points than me when I’m actually coming out ahead because I’m getting better value and I’ll outscore my opponents H2H by more with my TE differential.

That’s how value works. It allows you to compare different starting positions by how much each will outscore your opponents at each position vs their players at that position.

Wait, so a scoring system tailored to increase TE scoring (1.5 TE ppr) bolsters their value?!? Groundbreaking work BB. Thank you for your service.

Mike11 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:13 am Bowers will be the TE __ overall as a rookie and I would only rather have the following TE’s over him in dynasty. Fill in the blanks.

Jigga94 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:34 am

Mike11 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:13 am Bowers will be the TE __ overall as a rookie and I would only rather have the following TE’s over him in dynasty. Fill in the blanks.

Everyone's favorite crowdsource rankings have TE as

Laporta
McBride/Kincaid/Hock/Andrews
Pitts
Njoku/Kelce/Kittle/Engram/etc

Personally, I'd put him with Pitts to start, but we know he's going to be ranked somewhere between Laporta and Andrews/Hock

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 1:12 pm 4 of them hit 1000 yards receiving: Olsen, Winslow, Pitts, Clark

3 of them hit double digit TDs: Ebron, Davis, Clark

Looking at the past decade, of the ten drafted: Pitts, Ebron and Eifert hit elite ceilings (either 1000 or 10+ TDs). Aside from those singular strong years they were barely above replacement level for their careers. Much like Njoku in 2023. Engram has been better than average. The rest were replacement level or worse.

My point from the beginning was that drafting a first round rookie TE doesn't improve your chances of getting a true difference maker at the position, so when you factor in the cost being an early second or better in our drafts and the value over replacement being the least of any position, it's a floor play.

wickerkat1212 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:32 pm I heard the rule with TEs is to hold them for three years, always. That it's the hardest position to adjust to in the NFL.