Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[ZakHH]

Again - Gross.

Let's break this down by draft capital if we want to get more context. The level of competition across the board is a complete different spectrum. So while you can bend your narrative to say what you want you're not comparing the same level of prospects. So of course it's skewed. Now bring in a 10th overall legit prospect to pair with Elijah Moore and you have two players that will command the ball over the lesser players that were distributed the ball only due to lack of other options.

Yet the weight of this all falls on the QB and if he can shoulder the load. Burrow has proven his worth, but Wilson is a huge TBD.

No fantasy points are awarded for draft capital.

If the 2021 Jets had managed to rack up the same passing volume with 4 pass catchers instead of 7, at least 2 of those pass catchers would have been fantasy relevant.

The 2021 Cowboys had a ton of draft capital sitting on their roster. And they had a great offense. Still, none of their pass catchers beat their ADP, with the exception of Dalton Schultz. Why? Because there were too many of them.

Take the 2021 Chargers. 1 x 1st, 2 x 3rd, 1 x UDFA. The result? Overall RB2, WR10, WR13, TE16. Why? Because there was a lot of volume, but not many mouths to feed.

Or how about the 2020 Packers?
1 x 2nd, 1 x 6th, 1 x UDFA. As you would say: gross. The result? RB5, WR1, TE3. Overall, not tier. Same reason: not many mouths to feed.

The 2022 Packers could also be interesting. They could turn 1 x 6th and 2 x UDFAs into a fantasy RB1, TE1 and WR2.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with chasing talent and draft capital. Chances are these players will make it in the NFL and reward their fantasy owners. A talented player can elevate the entire team. He'll not only claim a sizeable slice, but can also make the entire pie bigger.

I'm not saying Garrett Wilson will be a bust. The Jets are on a good way. If Zach Wilson keeps developing, Garrett Wilson can be a fantasy WR1 in 2024, or maybe already in 2023.

All I'm saying is that, in 2022, I expect him to be outperformed by Chris Olave. We'll know in January if I was right.

[YouMightDieTryin]

I say gross because you only choose to compare a Prime A versus a dart throw B. Bring in a similar team to compare to like a NE or something.

And now you took two very well established situations where we have a known HOF QB and Rodgers (jk) that can work with lesser talents to achieve success. The fact is NYJ upgraded their WR to grab bodies that demand the ball in their hands instead of five nickels off the street. Now they need that HOF QB.

[ZakHH]

Fair enough. Let's look at the 2021 Patriots.

#25 in terms of pass attempts, #13 in terms of yards. Less volume than the Jets, but a more efficient passing attack. We're not talking a huge difference, though. Per game, the Pats passed for 18 yards more than the Jets.

Their pass catchers: 1 x 1st (Agholor, I'm ignoring N'Keal Harry here), 1 x 2nd, 1 x 3rd (both TEs). And 3 UDFAs: Meyers, Bourne, Brandon Bolden.

Can we agree that volume and talent level are about the same?

Still. the Pats produced some usable assets for fantasy purposes. Hunter Henry was TE#9, thanks to his many TDs. Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers were both WR3s. Not bad for UDFAs.

And why? Because the Pats had only 4 players with 10%+ target shares in the games they played: Meyers, Henry, Bourne and Agholor. Brandon Bolden got close to the mark. If we removed 1 of the players from the equation - e.h. Agholor, who was the least efficient of the WRs - both Bourne and Meyers could have been WR2s. But even as WR3s, they were still better than the best Jets pass catcher. Why? Because there were less mouths to feed.

And you conveniently ignored the 2021 Cowboys? Excellent QB, top 3 passing offense, well established, loaded with talent. What prompted their pass catchers' lack of fantasy success, if "number of mouths to feed" is not a factor? CeeDee Lamb should have been in the overall WR#1 conversation in that offense. Yet he was WR#20, despite missing only 1 game. And he still was the Cowboys' best WR at that rank. Because there were too many mouths to feed, even for a high-powered and efficient offense such as the Cowboys'.

The situation there is different in 2022, though. Amari and Cedrick Wilson are out of town, and Gallup is expected to miss quite a bit of time at the beginning of the season. So there's only CeeDee, Schultz and rookie Tolbert left. I have CeeDee as overall WR#2 in my projections. Last year, he was my WR#12. And the only thing that I expect to change in Dallas is the number of mouths to feed. Each slice of the pie will be larger this year, even though the overall pie will remain the same size.

You can reject it all you want, but there is a strong statistical correlation between the number of pass catchers on a team, and the fantasy success of those pass catchers.

Of course, there is every chance that my target share projections will be all wrong. But until we have reason to believe that at least 3 (better 4) of the potential pass catchers will not see a relevant number of targets, I would keep expectations for the pass catchers of the 2022 Jets tempered.

If we can agree that 617 pass attempts, 4,000 team yards and 23 passing TDs sound like a realistic projection for the Jets, then Garrett Wilson's share would have to be at least 32.5% in targets, yards and TDs for him to enter WR1 territory. To put this into perspective: Cooper Kupp last year had a share of 31.5% targets / 41.9% yards / 39.0% TDs. Especially the last 2 numbers are insane.

Last year's WR#11 and #12 were Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Their shares: 23.0 / 36.4 / 28.3% (Lockett) and 26.1 / 28.2 / 40.0% (Metcalf). Lockett was extremely efficient at generating yards, and Metcalf at catching TDs. The Seahawks ranked #31 in terms of passing attempts, btw. How did one of the lowest-volume passing offenses produce two fantasy WR1s? Because they had only 1 more pass catcher with a 10%+ share in TE Gerald Everett.

And even he finished in TE2 territory. Even sub-par offenses can produce several fantasy assets - if there aren't many mouths to feed. I'm sorry if that makes you uncomfortable, but the data speaks a pretty clear language here.

[Anteaters]

Welp, Garrett Wilson fell to me in my rookie draft... so now I'm ALL IN!

It's funny how that happens.

Even since Pickens fell to me in my draft, I can't find enough good things to like about what I see in film and print about him. Before I got him, he was Just Another Rookie WR Not In The Top3. Now, Pickens is that guy who might be one of the 2 best WRs from this draft!!!!

[YouMightDieTryin]

And why? Because the Pats had only 4 players with 10%+ target shares in the games they played: Meyers, Henry, Bourne and Agholor. Brandon Bolden got close to the mark. If we removed 1 of the players from the equation - e.h. Agholor, who was the least efficient of the WRs - both Bourne and Meyers could have been WR2s. But even as WR3s, they were still better than the best Jets pass catcher. Why? Because there were less mouths to feed.

So you can omit players from one side, but not from another? Skewed again.

And you conveniently ignored the 2021 Cowboys? Excellent QB, top 3 passing offense, well established, loaded with talent. What prompted their pass catchers' lack of fantasy success, if "number of mouths to feed" is not a factor? CeeDee Lamb should have been in the overall WR#1 conversation in that offense. Yet he was WR#20, despite missing only 1 game. And he still was the Cowboys' best WR at that rank. Because there were too many mouths to feed, even for a high-powered and efficient offense such as the Cowboys'.

And the Cowboys are a well known talented Offense. High QB, 3 very skilled WR that all warrant the ball, etc.

Now that the Jets have two capable WR instead of scrubs they'll feed those mouths more than the others. Just as you so predict for this years Cowboys.

You can continue to manipulate your data to say whatever you want though.

[Lumps]

Is there a way to remove the “you posted in this thread” icon? This was interesting when it was about Garrett Wilson. Since then, it’s been about Julio, Tory Holt, Marvin Harrison and whatever the hell y'all are going on about now.

But carry on about how Braxton Berrios, CJ Uzomah (post significant injury), and Tyler Conklin are going to steal targets away from the #10 overall pick who has looked like an NFL WR since high school.

[YouMightDieTryin]

Is there a way to remove the “you posted in this thread” icon? This was interesting when it was about Garrett Wilson. Since then, it’s been about Julio, Tory Holt, Marvin Harrison and whatever the hell y'all are going on about now.

But carry on about how Braxton Berrios, CJ Uzomah (post significant injury), and Tyler Conklin are going to steal targets away from the #10 overall pick who has looked like an NFL WR since high school.

No. You're stuck with us.

[Ice]

I don't care what anyone says; This thread derailment is not my fault!

[Jigga94]

Is there a way to remove the “you posted in this thread” icon? This was interesting when it was about Garrett Wilson. Since then, it’s been about Julio, Tory Holt, Marvin Harrison and whatever the hell y'all are going on about now.

But carry on about how Braxton Berrios, CJ Uzomah (post significant injury), and Tyler Conklin are going to steal targets away from the #10 overall pick who has looked like an NFL WR since high school.

No. You're stuck with us.

One of us

[honcho55]

Nothin wrong with a thread derail imo.

Honestly should become a Zach Wilson thread if you ask me. The upside is all there for the jets O

[mild]

Welp, Garrett Wilson fell to me in my rookie draft... so now I'm ALL IN!

It's funny how that happens.

Even since Pickens fell to me in my draft, I can't find enough good things to like about what I see in film and print about him. Before I got him, he was Just Another Rookie WR Not In The Top3. Now, Pickens is that guy who might be one of the 2 best WRs from this draft!!!!

Hahaha... I hear ya. Nothing like donning the rose tinted glasses for your latest acquisition. "Because when you can draft the Jets newest receiver... you must do it!"

In fairness to me, I was holding 1.07 and had spent the majority of my time researching Olave vs. Skyy Moore vs. Pickens vs. James Cook. Didn't think for a second that I'd be seeing Garrett, so I'd only done rudimentary study on him. Needless to say... since turning the tape back on and diving in - I have become rather charmed.

I think his body control might be as-special of a trait as Jameson's speed. Really looking forward to seeing what this guy does in the NFL.

[mls]

So what did your research about Olave, Moore and Pickens turn up?

[mild]

So what did your research about Olave, Moore and Pickens turn up?

They're all really good prospects. I'm trying to trade for Olave right now.

The harder choice would be Moore vs. Pickens. That's legitimately close imo - base hit vs. home run swing.

Moore feels safer for a multitude of reasons... he excels at NFL staple routes, he gets his next 4 years with Patrick Mahomes... but Pickens has the build and upside to be one of the top 3 WR's from this class if it all comes together. He also appears to be a total headcase.

The Steelers are pretty good at drafting WR's, and when presented with their choice of the two, they went Pickens. It'll be fascinating to see who was right in a years time.

[Ice]

So what did your research about Olave, Moore and Pickens turn up?

They're all really good prospects. I'm trying to trade for Olave right now.

The harder choice would be Moore vs. Pickens. That's legitimately close imo - base hit vs. home run swing.

Moore feels safer for a multitude of reasons... he excels at NFL staple routes, he gets his next 4 years with Patrick Mahomes... but Pickens has the build and upside to be one of the top 3 WR's from this class if it all comes together. He also appears to be a total headcase.

The Steelers are pretty good at drafting WR's, and when presented with their choice of the two, they went Pickens. It'll be fascinating to see who was right in a years time.

Wait; We agree on something....Stop the presses.
I actually view them Wilson then Olave but very close and Pickens then Moore but very close.

[mild]

Wait; We agree on something....Stop the presses.
I actually view them Wilson then Olave but very close and Pickens then Moore but very close.

Christmas is saved!!

I got Wilson. He dropped to where I was projecting Olave, hence the post.

I wouldn't blame anyone for taking Pickens over Moore. There were definitely days, where if we'd drafted that night, and that was my choice... I'd have pulled that trigger.