Melvin Gordon value

[dynastyninja]

The Gurley/Gordon comparison is an appropriate one, especially considering they were RB 1 & 2 in their rookie class. This time last year they were right next to each other, but Gurley's efficiency improved significantly this year, so he is back at the top. Gordon stayed the same and it resulted in the exact same ADP of 20th overall. Gurley was elite last year. Gordon was above average.

I think Gordon is a good running back. I would own him if the opportunity presented itself, but I'd also be very open to offers for him. The YPC just can't be ignored. He's never cracked 4.0, which is still a pretty low standard for a successful running back in the NFL. He's going to produce, but I don't want to hedge my bets with him 2-3 years down the line.

[Phaded]

I am not sure how you can say Gurley is a poor example and then use Jay Ajayi as your example; seems extremely hypocritical if you ask me. Jay Ajayi was dramatically inflated (both in value and skill) because of the three 200 yard games. In his other 12 games; he averaged under 3.7YPC - so it's not like he had a great year; he had a few great games which skewed the overall numbers. Furthermore, his time in Philadelphia he had under a 3.4YPC. So - I'm not sure where you are getting that he was more efficient than Ajayi with worse lines. And that "awful Philadelphia line" had a better ranking than the Chargers, on top of that.

Gurley may have gotten a bit of a drop off - but he was still being valued higher than Gordon was. I think an argument can be had that Gordon is the better fantasy running back to own in the long-term over Gurley. Especially if you factor in the cost difference.

The Chargers are not nearly as good of a situation as you imply. If the Charges can put together a nice offensive line, I would not be remotely surprised if he can put up numbers similar to Gurley just did.

People use offensive line all the time as an excuse for running backs, so I still do not understand why it is not a valid point for Gordon.

[dynastyninja]

I am not sure how you can say Gurley is a poor example and then use Jay Ajayi as your example; seems extremely hypocritical if you ask me. Jay Ajayi was dramatically inflated (both in value and skill) because of the three 200 yard games. In his other 12 games; he averaged under 3.7YPC - so it's not like he had a great year; he had a few great games which skewed the overall numbers. Furthermore, his time in Philadelphia he had under a 3.4YPC. So - I'm not sure where you are getting that he was more efficient than Ajayi with worse lines. And that "awful Philadelphia line" had a better ranking than the Chargers, on top of that.

Gurley may have gotten a bit of a drop off - but he was still being valued substantially higher than Gordon was. I think an argument can be had that Gordon is the better fantasy running back to own in the long-term over Gurley.

The Chargers are not nearly as good of a situation as you imply. If the Charges can put together a nice offensive line, I would not be remotely surprised if he can put up numbers similar to Gurley just did.

I think Gurley's drop-off was pretty significant last year. His April 2017 ADP was 19. Gordon's was 20.

[Phaded]

But he was still being drafted in the top 2 rounds. It's not like he fell dramatically.

[FantasyFreak]

I think the other thing you have to factor in is the offensive line.
Everyone was willing to give Gurley a pass because of the offensive line, but they do not extend the same courtesy to Gordon.

As per Football Outsiders, the Chargers run blocking ranks the last 3 years:
2017 - 26th
2016 - 23rd
2015 - 31st

So my question is for those that criticize Gordon's efficiency; were you the same ones giving Gurley a pass? And why does he get a pass, but Gordon does not? It's no coincidence that Gurley had his great year when the team ranked 3rd in run blocking.

The other thing to consider is - is the Chargers line going to be any better?

It should be with the addition of Pouncey.

[dynastyninja]

But he was still being drafted in the top 2 rounds. It's not like he fell dramatically.

No argument here on that, but I do think there was real concern for Gurley. His "reputation" kept him from falling farther than 19, but I wasn't confident enough to pay Sammy for him (the offer was "socialized" to me) and think a lot of people weren't thrilled about owning him.

[Goddard]

I see no reason why he won't continue being a top 10 RB, especially if they continue improving the o-line.

[ArrylT]

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/a ... 6771|16776

Gordon vs. Gurley DLF ADP Jan 17 to April 18

Gurley - 14, 17, 16, 17, 18, 21, 21, 23 (August 2017 his low point), 18, 13, 9, 6, 3, ,3, 2, 2

Gordon - 21, 26, 20, 20, 18, 13, 16, 14, 12 (Sept 2018 his peak), 15, 14, 23, 20, 24, 22, 20

[ArrylT]

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/p ... odd_Gurley

http://apps.dynastyleaguefootball.com/p ... vin_Gordon

For more long term ADP comparison

From Nov 2015 until August 2017 - Gurley saw a slow and steady decline from 2.5 to 23 - if that isnt a meaningful value drop then I dont know what is. He definitely did not fall dramatically but the value was pushed down over 18 months before it bounced back to its highest peak.

Gordons ADP was in the early 30s throughout 2015, before seeing a very dramatic decline from Nov 2015 to Jan 2016 (35 to 71) and fell as low as 79 overall in July 2016 before beginning a climb from 70 to 15 over the 2016 season. Since then, apart from that brief 3 month period in the 2017 off-season Gordons value has been steady in the 15-22 range.

[ArrylT]

Of course the ADP only shows where the highest person would take him vs. the average owner - but I think we all know most people who owned Gordon or Gurley wouldbt be the ones beating down their stock.

[lukkynumber13]

I think the other thing you have to factor in is the offensive line.
Everyone was willing to give Gurley a pass because of the offensive line, but they do not extend the same courtesy to Gordon.

As per Football Outsiders, the Chargers run blocking ranks the last 3 years:
2017 - 26th
2016 - 23rd
2015 - 31st

So my question is for those that criticize Gordon's efficiency; were you the same ones giving Gurley a pass? And why does he get a pass, but Gordon does not? It's no coincidence that Gurley had his great year when the team ranked 3rd in run blocking.

The other thing to consider is - is the Chargers line going to be any better?

It should be with the addition of Pouncey.

And Forrest Lamp. He was thought of as the best O-lineman in last year's draft by many analysts.

[Vcize]

I am not sure how you can say Gurley is a poor example and then use Jay Ajayi as your example; seems extremely hypocritical if you ask me. Jay Ajayi was dramatically inflated (both in value and skill) because of the three 200 yard games. In his other 12 games; he averaged under 3.7YPC - so it's not like he had a great year; he had a few great games which skewed the overall numbers.

"If you take out his 3 best games of this mediocre running back then his YPC was as bad as Gordon's if you don't take out any of his games!!!" is not a winning argument.

If you take out Gordon's 3 best games he averaged 3.2ypc.

Furthermore, his time in Philadelphia he had under a 3.4YPC. So - I'm not sure where you are getting that he was more efficient than Ajayi with worse lines.

Ajayi in Philly had 70 carries for 408 yards. Now I am no math wiz but my calculator is telling me that is a lot higher than 3.4 YPC. It's 5.8 YPC, to be exact.

People use offensive line all the time as an excuse for running backs, so I still do not understand why it is not a valid point for Gordon.

People use offensive line as an excuse for short term struggles, especially when a guy has a history of playing much better. Gurley struggled a year after he ran for 4.9ypc. That's pretty different than if he had run for 3.X YPC both of those years. Or in Gordon's case, 3 years in a row.

Yes Gordon's line has consistently ranked lowly, but in 3 years, guys figure it out. Shady McCoy, Todd Gurley, and Jay Ajayi all played behind similarly ranked lines for the last 3 years (and most of them spent the majority of those times in much more broken offenses as well) and still managed to put together much better rushing efficiency.

Gordon is far from the first running back to not play behind the Dallas offensive line every year.

[Phaded]

My mistake on Ajayi's numbers; I was reading them backwards when I was looking at them. ESPN puts in the divider of when he was traded, so I assumed it was the numbers below that marker that he was with Philly - not the number above. So I miscalculated that.

None of those 3 names you dropped have played with an offensive line as poor as the Charges during their 3 year span.

I also still do not see how you can reasonably compare Ajayi & Gordon to eachother statistically. During that 3-year span Gordon has 722 carries and Ajayi has 468 carries. I would hope Ajayi has a better YPC if he is half as good as many around here like to say he is, it is no secret that with less carries you are more efficient. Not exactly news.

The top 3 in carries this past year were Bell, McCoy & Gordon - with 4.0, 4.0 & 3.9YPC respectively. 7 of the top 12 had a YPC of 4.0 or less. 3 had 4.1; and then the exceptions in the top 12 were Gurley & Hunt at 4.7 & 4.9. Gordon's YPC is not that abnormal for getting as many carries as he is.

Yes - if all you look at is the YPC numbers then they aren't pretty; but there is a lot more to it than that - I get it, some people think YPC is the end all - be all, but it's not. I would not be surprised if Gordon posts a 4.3-4.4YPC this upcoming year if the offensive line remains healthy.

[AussieMate]

I think this is the year to silence Gordon dislike, they will have lamp back along with pouncey which should help Gordon greatly. I'm a fan of Gordon, he is better then his YPC show and all it takes is to watch his games, I don't think he is an "elite" talent but good enough to hold the lead role for years to come with a few top 10 finished in there.
I predict a zero% chance the chargers draft an RB in the first 4 rnds to compete.
On Gurley I don't think he was very good his rookie season, I watched his games and in those first few games where he "blew up" you could drive a truck through the holes they opened. As soon as the holes went so did his production, the only RBS I trust to make yards out of nothing is bell, dj and McCoy (maybe hunt to an extent, he just doesn't go down on first contact), other then them you won't see much without oline help.

[Pullo Vision]

I doubt they put a top 3 draft pick toward their rb corp considering their needs. It's that simple for me.

I'd agree they won't. But, they have a pretty clear need at RB behind him. He won't be completely replaced, but a 4th round RB could cut into his workload.