cam newton versus aaron rodgers

[RobertBobson]

3 years is a good guideline. Not that it is a hard and fast orthodox law to adhere to but that, which each passing year into the future, it becomes harder and harder to usefully predict what a player will be. So planning on having Cam as your QB for the next decade is nothing but conjecture. Projecting player value years into the future is akin to long range weather forecasting. It becomes more and more approximate, and less and less useful.

Good point I especially like the weather analogy.

As a possible Newton buyer, my two main concerns are-
1- OC Chudzinski leaving (possibly to SD);
2- a marked decline in the high rushing TDs

I wouldn't worry too much about the OC. Unless the Rivera et al is a complete idiot ( and I don't believe he is), Cam's development is going to be the 1# priority in hiring an OC. After the success he had his first year, I just can't see them hiring some OC that wants to install the west coast offense or something.

I am concerned about his rushing touchdowns. Since he, you know, set the NFL record, I think it's much more likely that this season was an outlier than the base amount he's likely to score any one year. But the question is, what is that number? If it's in the neighborhood of 8 rushing touchdowns, he's a monster.

[standard_variance]

I think the three year window is a good guideline, because the NFL is a very brutal league. Players have career ending or damaging injuries all the time. Situations for a team (NFL team I mean) can change so dramatically over that time, that it's very difficult to project what a player will be in 4 years.
quote]

Yes, I am paying attention to what you said, FFS. You are saying the three year window is a good guideline, I am saying it is a horrible one. You would never take Brady over Cam and that is because you are not using a 3 year guideline.

Stop trying to win an argument and realize that you are trying to have it both ways. You want to SAY the 3 year window makes sense to win the argument but your ACTIONS in real life would show you don't use a 3-year window because uou inherently know it makes no sense. ie, Cam vs Brady.

Guys...no principle is flawless. In context every philosophy or strategy can have its flaws exploited, and criticized. However, I think the "3 year window" refers to comparing players mainly in their youth or prime. Tom Brady is not in either, Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers both fit, therefore when Brady is used as an example in this context of the discussion, of course the strategy does not really work as well, or make sense as stated... there is a reason for that. Its because the comparison of Brady in this discussion is taking it out of context. Its not the strategy thats as bad as you guys are saying it is, its the way you guys are applying it.

[Pullo Vision]

As a possible Newton buyer, my two main concerns are-
1- OC Chudzinski leaving (possibly to SD);
2- a marked decline in the high rushing TDs

I wouldn't worry too much about the OC. Unless the Rivera et al is a complete idiot ( and I don't believe he is), Cam's development is going to be the 1# priority in hiring an OC. After the success he had his first year, I just can't see them hiring some OC that wants to install the west coast offense or something.

I am concerned about his rushing touchdowns. Since he, you know, set the NFL record, I think it's much more likely that this season was an outlier than the base amount he's likely to score any one year. But the question is, what is that number? If it's in the neighborhood of 8 rushing touchdowns, he's a monster.

It's not that I think Rivera's staff is a bunch of idiots. It's how much of an impact Chudzinski has had before.

As the OC for Cleveland in 2007, he helped guide them to a 10-6 record his first year behind, gulp... a combo of Pro-Bowler Derek Anderson throwing to Braylon Edwards. Since that year, neither player has approached their production that season. 2008 wasn't as magical, as fan-craze for Brady Quinn (who the team had aggressively traded for the previous draft) forced him into the lineup after the bye. The entire coaching staff was replaced next season and 2011 was his first year since as an OC in the NFL.

Chuds has been one of those Coordinator/positional coaches I've been curious about over the years. The magic he made in 08, getting Anderson, Edwards and Winslow to all perform at career-besting levels, was eye-opening and could conceivably have been duplicated by Carolina's performance this year as one of the top offenses in the league.

[yankdog]

I had to revisit this thread-such a great thread. I just got an offer of His A Rod for my Cam and had to re-read this thread. I am curious if anyone anticipates any offseason developments that would change anyone's position fundamentally. I read where folks are concerned about Chud's possible move or whether Cam gets another WR, or one develops, etc.

[Jfever]

I'd take rodgers due to the fact that alot of Cam's fantasy points came from rushing td's and those are tough to predict and tougher to repeat year in and year out. The more carries he takes the more hits he takes and the probability of injury goes up.

Rodgers is a better passer, still young for QB standards, has better younger wr's, is on an offense that is clearly dedicated to passing 1st, and is flat out very proven. One could make the argument that Rodgers is the MVP of dynasty leagues and could well ther for a while as he is only 28. I actually see Cam's productivity droping a bit due to less rushing Td's but I do see him improving as a passer but conversly I don't see him ever becoming the passer that Rodgers is today. I'm thinking Car will add some Wr help either via the draft or FA. But all in all this is a very easy call as you don't want to look too far down the road and lose out on Rodgers being the #1 ranked fantasy qb for next couple-three years.

[RichDynastyFB]

I've read this entire thread, which I found quite interesting, not only from the perspective of ARod vs Cam, but also from the perspective of player longevity in the dynasty setting.

I jumped on the Michael Vick bandwagon in 2010, and he was very productive that year, mainly due to his rushing TD's. Obviously that fell off severely in 2011, due to defenses figuring him out, combined with his age and stature. This, to me, is quite relevant to this discussion, especially as relates to Cam's projected future production. However, my analysis leads me to believe that Cam can indeed sustain his rushing stats, mainly due to his stature.

ARod 6'-2" 225 lbs
Cam 6'-5" 248 lbs
Big Ben 6'-5" 241 lbs
Gronk 6'-6" 265 lbs

I make these comparisons to illustrate that Cam is a battering ram. Big Ben has enjoyed great success over the last decade due to his size and mobility in the pocket. (3 super Bowl Victories). Cam is actually bigger and even more mobile. Where Vick could be neutralized by bigger rushers, Cam and big ben have the ability to shrug them off to much more of an extent.

Add to this the lockout last year. Cam had basically a month? to learn and deploy the offense, let alone any time to develop his skills as a QB. With a full offseason to hone that he can be truly scary. Most of his TD's came within 2 yards from the end zone, not an especially high-risk proposition for a QB, as he never gets up to full speed=injury-causing collisions.

Given no offseason to develop a repertoire with his receivers, I think his passing stats were quite acceptable, establishing a downfield game with steve smith which highlighted his huge arm, even under pressure. Given that I was able to snag him with the 3.08 pick last year, I also have little invested. To get ARod at this point would probably cost me half my team.

LOL, I'm hanging with Cam, and praying to the fantasy Gods!!!!!!!!!!!!

[twistedmetal]

This conversation is still going on... Rodgers is here

























































Cam is here.

Please stop wasting your thoughts on this. OMG 6 years younger, Big whoop. In 10 yrs when Rodgers is out of the league, that team would have found another QB to replace him and Cam will be 32 and on his way out as well.