CJ Stroud & Coin Flips

[BabyChark23]

They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

Idk, by the time it’s flipped heads 9 times in a row, I’m starting to ask if it’s weighted.

[Bronco Billy]

Why in the Seven Hells are we talking about (and in some cases misconstruing) probabilities like QB performance are easily well defined events? If we’re talking about trying to predict future QB behavior, we’d better be looking at Chaos Theory because we’re dealing with turbulence, fractals and all sorts of strange attractors.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

^
Someone who didn't pass high school stats class

Seriously?

Are you saying that a coin flip of heads 10 times in a row has the same odds as a coin flip of heads 9 times in a row? Is that what you're saying?

[Ruggenater]

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

^
Someone who didn't pass high school stats class

Seriously?

Are you saying that a coin flip of heads 10 times in a row has the same odds as a coin flip of heads 9 times in a row? Is that what you're saying?

No, he’s saying that each flip has 50/50 odds, no matter what happened the 9 flips before it or the million flips before it (assuming the true odds are 50/50 and it’s not a biased coin). Each coin flip is an independent event.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

^
Someone who didn't pass high school stats class

Seriously?

Are you saying that a coin flip of heads 10 times in a row has the same odds as a coin flip of heads 9 times in a row? Is that what you're saying?

No, he’s saying that each flip has 50/50 odds, no matter what happened the 9 flips before it or the million flips before it (assuming the true odds are 50/50 and it’s not a biased coin). Each coin flip is an independent event.

I said that in my first post. A lot of people round here have trouble reading the whole post.

[trc]

They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

[Ruggenater]

Seriously?

Are you saying that a coin flip of heads 10 times in a row has the same odds as a coin flip of heads 9 times in a row? Is that what you're saying?

No, he’s saying that each flip has 50/50 odds, no matter what happened the 9 flips before it or the million flips before it (assuming the true odds are 50/50 and it’s not a biased coin). Each coin flip is an independent event.

I said that in my first post. A lot of people round here have trouble reading the whole post.

You didn’t though. There’s no difference between looking at the “individual coin flip” and the “whole picture”. Either way, it’s still 50/50.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

It's called probability. Each flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The second flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The chance that the 1st and 2nd flip are both heads is 1/2 times 1/2. Which is 25%. Do that 10 times and see the difference between the 9th flip and 10th flip.

[CGW]

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

It's called probability. Each flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The second flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The chance that the 1st and 2nd flip are both heads is 1/2 times 1/2. Which is 25%. Do that 10 times and see the difference between the 9th flip and 10th flip.

The probability of the 10th flip being heads is 50%. The result of the previous 9 flips have zero bearing on the 10th. Now if you are changing the problem to be the odds of 10 consecutive heads flips...thats a completely different set of odds. But it's not what was said above.

And that's the point I was making above. Just because CJ and AR have looked good does not impact Bryce Young in any way. It's poor logic to assume otherwise.

[Bronco Billy]

You guys are talking past each other. Figure out what you’re talking about mutually and then have the discussion. There’s a massive difference if you are talking about an amalgam of 10 independent events with probability of any single event measured before the first of the 10 as your study or if you are talking about any single one flip event as your study.

[Shcritters]

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

It's called probability. Each flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The second flip has a 50% chance of being heads. The chance that the 1st and 2nd flip are both heads is 1/2 times 1/2. Which is 25%. Do that 10 times and see the difference between the 9th flip and 10th flip.

The probability of getting tails on any flip are 50-50 (well, actually, 51-49 depending on which side started up).
If you're predicting the probability of getting 10 tails in a row when you haven't flipped any the probability is (0.5)^10.
If you've flipped 9 times in a row and gotten tails those previous 9 times the probability of getting tails is... 50-50. However improbable the 9-in-a-row were they have no impact on the future events. Every time it is 50-50.

Here are a couple articles from mathematicians/statisticians saying the same thing:

https://personal.lse.ac.uk/robert49/ebo ... %20fallacy.

https://www.divisiononaddiction.org/wp- ... rTails.pdf (look at page 2)

https://indianapublicmedia.org/amomento ... e-odds.php

To be clear, this is different than the Monte Hall problem... which is an interesting thought experiment to work through (which I remember working through in Master's Level stats class in college).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

And if you still think that the chance is significantly less than 50% on that 10th coin flip then I want to join your leagues and make some trades with you (I kid ).

Now... back to Stroud... I was never in a place to pick either Young or Stroud, but I wanted nothing to do with Young and thought Stroud had a chance to finally break the 'OSU QB's are system QB's who can't make it in the NFL' stigma. If I had the 1.02 (assuming ARich went 1.01) I would have tried to trade back to get Stroud because I thought Young was too much of an outlier to put a 1.02 bet on.

[Cameron Giles]

CJ "The Probability" Stroud

[Anteaters]

They are completely independent. It's like flipping a quarter ten times. Just because the first 9 were heads, does not impact the odds of the 10th flip in any way

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

Here's a simple way to grasp the concept.

Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.

Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?

I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?

We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.

So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.

That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.

[CGW]

I did just that in one league, traded back to take Stroud rather than Young. However, I did take Young in another rookie draft at 1.03 and in a startup.

In hindsight I was worried a little too much about the Ohio State curse.

[CubfanAA]

I'm sorry but that's not true.

Sure that individual coin flip will be 50/50 but if you're looking at the whole picture that 10th flip has a substantial less chance of being heads.

If it is a true 50/50 coin - why is the 10th flip a bigger chance of being tails?

Here's a simple way to grasp the concept.

Let's say you're at a casino. Let's say you can place one of the following bets. Same bet, same return, same loss.
9 coin tosses, all heads
10 coin tosses all heads.

Would you bet that a coin flipped 9 times would return 9 heads,
or would you bet that a coin flipped 10 times would return 10 heads?

I would assume that all reasonable people would choose 9 times. Why risk losing on the 10th flip?

We can take the same thinking to QB draft crops. In any given year, it would be extremely rare for every first round QB to end up a long term starter in the NFL. Just as it would be extremely unlikely to flip a coin five times get five consecutive heads. Yes, each flip is a 50/50 proposition, but getting five in a row is highly unlikely and is not a 50/50 proposition.

So, if historical facts indicate not all of the 2023 first round QBs are going to be a success, we have to start trying to figure out which ones are not going to turn up heads. I've accepted the proof Stroud has presented that he is already a heads flip. Now the discussion becomes, of AR and Young, which is more likely to be a heads. So far AR looks more like a heads flip than Young.

That leaves us with an unfortunate scenario. To bet on Young being a success, you virtually have to bet right now that ten coin flips will return ten consecutive heads. I'd never make that bet.

This is a really really bad take on how statistics work. Just like the 10th coin flip is completely unrelated to the first 9 coin flips...the chances of Young being successful are completely unrelated to the Stroud or AR. Young is his own flip. It doesn't matter if Stroud or AR are heads or tails.