Garrett Wilson is my WR1 in this class and it’s not that close for me… am I crazy??

[Cameron Giles]

Rodgers is going to lock in on Wilson so much.

Lazard and Davis are mediocre, and Hardman hasn't proven anything. The Jets WR group really isn't anything special at the moment. It's very similar to those Adams-led WR groups in GB.

Couldn't agree more. And this falls in line with the general fantasy communities current consensus, much more so than imagination island etc

Dynasty ADP:
https://keeptradecut.com/dynasty-rankings
https://dynastyleaguefootball.com/rankings/wr-rankings/

Early redraft ADP's:
https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/rankings/
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/ranking ... sheets.php
https://www.rotoballer.com/early-2023-f ... ft/1165738
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/s ... -tight-end

Yeah, I think people are overthinking.

The Jets featured Wilson as the primary read last year and there's no sign they're going to stop doing that after improving their QB situation drastically. I think a 100-reception year is in sight for Wilson this year. The Jets are going to pass a lot more.

[mild]

I think a 100-reception year is in sight for Wilson this year. The Jets are going to pass a lot more.

Co-signed. Their 2023 opponents:

Road: BUF, DEN, MIA, LVR, NE, DAL, NYG, CLE
Home: BUF, KC, MIA, LAC, NE, PHI, HOU, WAS, ATL

I count 2 or 3 layups, tops.
And at least 8 to 9 shootouts, maybe more.

[SteveMaddensShoes]

I think a 100-reception year is in sight for Wilson this year. The Jets are going to pass a lot more.

Co-signed. Their 2023 opponents:

Road: BUF, DEN, MIA, LVR, NE, DAL, NYG, CLE
Home: BUF, KC, MIA, LAC, NE, PHI, HOU, WAS, ATL

I count 2 or 3 layups, tops.
And at least 8 to 9 shootouts, maybe more.

Makes you wonder why they didn’t just keep Zach and tank for another year. They will be lucky to make playoffs just based of that schedule.

[mild]

Makes you wonder why they didn’t just keep Zach and tank for another year. They will be lucky to make playoffs just based of that schedule.

It's playoffs or bust for this GM and HC combo. Woody Johnson isn't what one would call a patient (nor particularly savvy) owner.

[gogobradyarm]

Less than 1k. If he makes one mistake the douche will ignore him and feed lazard every game.

Watson made plenty of mistakes...and was fed.

Watson dropped his first pass and was an afterthought for two months.

He was also injured to be fair

[Cameron Giles]

Makes you wonder why they didn’t just keep Zach and tank for another year. They will be lucky to make playoffs just based of that schedule.

The Jets have made the playoffs 8 times since 1990.

Owners really don't like tanking. They'd rather cackle in their suites with their billionaire friends while watching a star QB play for their playoff contender. Plus, it's New York.

[Kurt G.O.A.T.]

"Obviously Garrett, you know, he's a talented guy," Rodgers said Tuesday on The Pat McAfee Show. "I threw him a pass today and just kind of turned and was like, 'Wow.' His ability to kind of get in and out of his breaks … there's another [No.] 17 I played with for a long time who does it better than anybody. The explosiveness in and out of breaks, the 17 here, is pretty similar."

https://www.nfl.com/news/new-jets-qb-aa ... -davante-a

[Bronco Billy]

Watson had the second half of season resurrection because of the QB he had. Wilson had the season he had despite the QBs he had. Now Wilson gets Watson’s former QB and that is a cause for concern?

Some of you guys think way too much. Occam’s Razor, folks.

[gogobradyarm]

"Obviously Garrett, you know, he's a talented guy," Rodgers said Tuesday on The Pat McAfee Show. "I threw him a pass today and just kind of turned and was like, 'Wow.' His ability to kind of get in and out of his breaks … there's another [No.] 17 I played with for a long time who does it better than anybody. The explosiveness in and out of breaks, the 17 here, is pretty similar."

https://www.nfl.com/news/new-jets-qb-aa ... -davante-a

I can only get so erect

[mild]

It's a slow news day round these parts, so I thought I'd share one of the best posts I've read recently - concerning our YAC king Garrett in the immediate sense, but really talking about how the WR market is shifting in Dynasty from a holistic sense. The whole thread is an excellent read, but for the sake of brevity I'll keep it to just the premise, and the best response. Feel free to read the whole thing, though.

"Putting the Garrett Wilson Hype Into Perspective" - the Thesis:

I've seen a lot about Wilson recently and wanted a good way to show he is being over-hyped. I'm sure there are some other factors in this that I'm not considering but let me know what you think.

JJ finished his rookie season as WR6 in PPR. Wilson finished his as WR21.

If we look at Justin Jefferson's value on KTC for SF around July 1st after his rookie year, he had a value of ~7700. Right now, Wilson has a value of ~7000. The difference in those values is a late 2nd/Jaylen Warren/Damien Harris/Elijah Mitchell.

Am I crazy to think that the value gap should be MUCH larger? I think almost every single person would've chosen the JJ (WR6) side over Wilson (WR21) + a small piece.

I know Wilson is now getting Rodgers but he also regressed last year and could retire after this season.

Is there anything I'm missing here?

Fair question, and not an unreasonable line of thinking to pursue if you think the GW hype is out of hand.

And now the top-rated reply, with 348 upvotes in less than a day... what I think is an incredibly insightful response, and goes even further as a "where are we now" state of the union on WR valuations in general:

The Garrett Wilson price is appropriate, but not for reasons everyone thinks. Dynasty is evolving very very quickly. A player like Wilson’s price is much more complex than everyone here tries to explain. The post will be longer but it should explain a couple logical fallacies people here post about when saying a stud young Wr is overrated.

To address this post in particular. Comparing JJ post rookie vs Garrett Wilson post rookie is apples to oranges. Dynasty and the current state of redraft nfl is massively different only 2-3years later. Whether this is long term or a similar blip like 2016 when WRs were king, we will see. I think it’s closer to a more permanent move. RBs were much higher rated in 2021. According to fantasy pros the top 4 1QB startup picks were RBs. Today it’s flipped. The top 2 1QB assets are WRs and they have a massive gap in value vs whoever you put at #3. Most of the first round is WRs. About 3/4 compared to 2/3-3/4 of the first round being rbs in 2021. That alone already starts pulling more WRs up in value. JJ was arguably the dynasty WR1 going into his sophomore year. Other arguments at the time were for Hill and AJB. Metcalf and Adams roughly in that discussion. Personally I picked him #1 wr in a startup that year at pick 1.07. By looking at that example I couldnt have traded the #1 Wr for even the #6 Rb at the time. Now you can probably trade the #6 WR for the #2 Rb straight up. That’s a big reason we are seeing inflated values in these tier 2 and tier 3 WRs these days Compared to a few years ago.

Another major logical flaw is only worrying about trade value. “WR X cant increase in value so you have to trade them.” This is forgetting there are essentially 3 major aspects of a players total value. #1 market value, #2 ability to hold or increase market value, #3 production. A RB these days is basically missing #2 which also lowers #1. A guy like Wilson (or CD like I fought for all last offseason) have all 3. They have high market value. It’s true it may not go up but the odds of it going down as a low 20’s aged WR is very low. Which brings us to #3. The production they can give you this year and in the short term. If we sold JJ at max value last offseason you just missed out on a WR#1 overall season. Whoever traded for him can easily trade for the exact same amount they paid last year, essentially giving them a free elite rental. Guys like Wilson may never increase in value but if they are worth 7000 ktc or whatever today, they have a high probability of still being 7000 in 2-3 years. Why give the buyer free production for 2-3 seasons?

The only trades that make sense is if you believe in a similar tier player. Can you get Olave plus for Wilson? In this scenario you don’t give away free production because you get it back. Swap for a Waddle, Lamb, Brown, Bijan you like more. A 3 firsts trade is not something I would ever do for a young stud wr. Not Wilson, not Olave because I can probably get 3 firsts next year too and bank that year of production while also taking it away from the future buyer.

A final logical flaw. ”Player X is ranked WR5 but won’t ever be WR5 over the course of the season.” This is dynasty. What’s better? 5 seasons of WR8-15 or 1 season of WR3? Would you rather have had Lockett or Jujus career so far? Maybe you can argue the single season but I’d say the prolonged production is much more valuable. You don’t ever have to actually reach your dynasty rank in a redraft setting to pay off. A solid young player with many years of production ahead of them is very valuable. Sure, it’s possible Wilson isnt a consistent top 15 guy, but I think even the haters would agree that very much is in his projections. He’s a top 10 redraft WR age 22 turning 23. The community projects hes here to stay for awhile and that’s very valuable.

I thought it was a great post, and I wanted to share. Agree? Disagree? Have at it.

[skinfanjon]

Fantastic post, articulates my thoughts about WRs vs RBs better than I’ve been able to.

The one thing I’ll disagree with is where they start talking about not considering trading one of the young stud WRs for 3 1sts. I’ll just say, not all draft classes are created equally. I wouldn’t go with a blanket dismissal. The value of the draft classes and projection of picks also should factor into the decision. And maybe in a lot of cases, the answer is still no, I’m just saying it should be considered case by case.

[Kurtrambis1]

I saw that post too and liked a lot of the content. It seems fantasy is playing a little catchup to the real NFL on how we evaluate running backs. NFL teams are moving away from bell cow types to specialist roles, which is causing us couch owners to adjust. The rise of the WR as the superstar dynasty piece is here it seems.

The last paragraph is where I disagree slightly. Expectations vs. reality matters a ton when forecasting and judging these WRs. It is easy to say in a vacuum I would rather have a high end WR2/ low end WR1 for 5 years but it is tougher to say that when you are expecting the WR to ascend NOW.

Lockett- People didn't have WR1 expectations so prolong WR2 numbers are fine
Devonta Smith- Cool with being a WR2 in fantasy since he isn't a #1 on his team
Higgins- Still a fantasy darling despite not putting up a WR1 or high end WR2 #s in PPR (though I suspect this year will see his value begin to level)

Pittman- People expected a WR1 rise but were left with a WR2 2022. His ADP is dropping dramatically.
DK Metcalf- Following his 2nd year he was untouchable like the OP was referring to. But then a huge buy window opened up midway into his 3rd season.
DJ Moore- Went from darling to early in his career to frustrating owners for the past 3 seasons despite being a WR2!


If you are buying or expecting these WRs to be WR1s, you will not be happy with a WR16 finish. Probably because your roster isn't constructed for them to be WR2s. What happens to Olave or Wilson's value if they finish as a WR2 this season? It won't be insulated like the OP is suggesting. The dynasty community isn't investing because we think Wilson can be a high end WR2, they are investing because the situation and talent are aligning to create a perfect situation. Dynasty people are smart and are investing early by paying WR1 value.

The players mentioned above- Pittman/ Metcalf/ and Moore all have some things in common. The dynasty community expected WR1 seasons, best WR on their team, and QB shifts/ downgrades. They were perceived as not being QB proof and the market reacts by creating buy windows, which in reality is what they should have been valued at before.

To answer the question of do I want one WR3 season or 5 WR8-15 seasons: I want the WR3 season so I can sell and get insane value to buy a WR2 and more. The truth is we will never know because a WR2 as your best WR piece is not winning you fantasy championships.

[FantasyFreak]

@ Mild, rather than copying all that, I will just one issue the first poster made. He states JJ value after his rookie year, and Wilson's after his, are similar. Shows the gap in value as a 2nd, or a marginal player, and then references a trade. He then says most would take JJ over Wilson and that 2nd or moderate player, and I agree, but it's hard to make an argument for a trade involving 2 players after their rookie years, that didn't weren't in the same class, because that trade isn't possible without some for of bending of the space/time continuum.

JJ was 22 going into his 2nd year, Wilson will be 23. JJ had a much, much better rookie year, and was a year younger going into year 2. don't think he pointed that out, as a reason, and I think it should have been mentioned as another reason for his value to be a lot higher than Wilson's.

The response was also well thought out. I appreciate the share.

[mild]

@ Mild, rather than copying all that, I will just one issue the first poster made. He states JJ value after his rookie year, and Wilson's after his, are similar. Shows the gap in value as a 2nd, or a marginal player, and then references a trade. He then says most would take JJ over Wilson and that 2nd or moderate player, and I agree, but it's hard to make an argument for a trade involving 2 players after their rookie years, that didn't weren't in the same class, because that trade isn't possible without some for of bending of the space/time continuum.

You're not wrong at all here. That's definitely a logical fallacy - I feel like Dynastycomish did a decent job of highlighting that the reality doesn't match already - because not only have the values moved, but their relation to a 2nd as well (elite WR's are now higher in ADP) - but he actually goes further into it in one of his replies.

So long as you guys are enjoying it - if you'll allow me one more follow up cut-and-paste... this one was a banger:

Rebuttal (with props) (emphasis mine):

Great analysis and I agree, but one question…

You wrote about how:

that’s a big reason we are seeing inflated values

But prior to that you wrote about:

"whether this is long term or a similar blip like 2016 when WRs were king, we will see"

So maybe overhyped, maybe not? We’d just have to wait and see?

One other issue I take is while you are correct about many years of wr2-3 production > 1 year of top 3 production, those years of lesser production will definitely cause the a highly rated players value to drop, especially when a guy consistently finishes outside the top 20. Right now Wilson has a wr1 value. Justified or not, it will at some point go down but it’s hard to see it getting much higher. To me, this is a bigger risk than I’m willing to take for a guy this young (and on the jets… sorry, but I find it hard to be excited about any player on the jets, ever). He’d have to be bonafide like JJ for me to justify paying the price and Wilson is not bonafide like JJ, though he is pretty close. Using your example, I would absolutely need Wilson+ for JJ in trade, and even then such a straightforward trade would probably not happen. I doubt too many people are giving up JJ for Wilson and a plus piece.

There are serious questions for me about the Jets offense, chiefly Aaron rodgers playing like a 40 year old (albeit a good one), as he did last year. If the regression continues, paired with rodgers personality, things will get ugly real quick for the Jets, and I can’t see that being a good thing for Wilson’s future. I’m now thinking of the several jaded wr prospects that fled town ASAP the past few seasons. Anderson, mims, Moore.

Dynastycomish, you have the mic:

(damn this guy writes well - emphasis mine, for our side-discussion FF)

The market is making the bet on it staying and I would too. 2016 was still a higher rate bell cow league just didn’t have any good backs for a season. I’d say 2016 was a one off. 2023 seems here to stay. We are seeing the slow death of the bell cow RB. RBs are paid less then ever, replaced quicker then ever and drafted later then ever. 2016 felt like we were settling for WRs, now it feels like we crave and need these WRs. But It’s a game of probability and it could always swing back.

For the price dropping on a bad season. That’s where I think the community is wrong. The old saying is when holding a stable stock, “you only lose money if you sell.” If Wilson has a similar trajectory as CD he may get an impulsive loss in value on a KTC site. CD was WR20 then WR18. Let’s say Wilson is WR18 next year. Maybe he drops down to WR 8 or so on a KTC site. Real life isn’t KTC. Every league is its own market. There really isn’t a massive difference between WR3 and WR8 in any 12 team league. Even though Wilson can be had for Waddle/Brown plus right now that’s probably not realistic in an individual league market. For me those players don’t drop any value with a mid WR2 season. I wouldn’t care what KTC says. I’d hold, enjoy my solid WR2 production and continue betting on further player development. Probability for a player like Wilson (high DC, great rookie season with bad QB) is nearly bust proof. If Wilson didnt exist I’d be making this same argument for Olave this year who would be having the same haters. I’ve made this argument for Lamb last offseason and JJ the year prior. Elite stud young WRs are really really good bets and overall the market knows that better than we do as individuals.

To compare to JJ, I don’t think any sane person would. That’s where I’d stop the projecting. We can’t project JJ/Chase level for anyone. Even if he’s #3 the gap to #2 is way more massive than KTC can show. I wouldn’t sell JJ or Chase in 1 QB unless the other was involved in the trade. They are unicorns.

"Every league is it's own market" deserves a placard on our walls.

As does "We are seeing the slow death of the bell cow RB. RBs are paid less then ever, replaced quicker then ever and drafted later then ever."

Like, g-d damn... Boom, nailed it.

So yeah, I've definitely subscribed to that guys posts now.

[FantasyFreak]

@mild. We've seen this coming, in regards to the RB's. It's why in my most recent league creation I gave high touch RB's a scoring edge over WR's, in the way it's set up. (There are some heavy TE premiums, too). Gives people a way to build differently, depending on what strategy you want to take. High touch RB's will score more points, but longevity is less than WR's. (For reference, Jacobs outscored J Jefferson by about 45 points, and CMC only a few less. Kelce, Jacobs, CMC, Ekeler and DH all outscored Jefferson)

As the NFL gets more and more pass happy, and teams go to RBBC more and more, WR's in typical standard PPR leagues will start to hold more value, for a lot of team builders, because they are just safer and last longer.