Way, way, waaaay too early 2023 Draft class thread

[TheTroll]

With the DNA and history of his father, MHJ is going to be one of the first guys off the board. Might be third in Superflex, but will probably be first everywhere else.

I agree. Maybe 1.02 in SF.

For sure… outside of a major injury or a bonehead legal issue (which I can’t fathom). He is locked in to 1.01, or 1.02 in SF. The pedigree and talent is there. Wouldn’t it be fitting for him to wind up in INDY?

[tstafford]

With the DNA and history of his father, MHJ is going to be one of the first guys off the board. Might be third in Superflex, but will probably be first everywhere else.

I agree. Maybe 1.02 in SF.

Wouldn’t it be fitting for him to wind up in INDY?

Yes. And seems plausible - Indy with a top-5 pick.

[Anteaters]

I don't know. I really like Harrison in AZ with Kyler and Hollywood and Trey. Pick up a rookie RB later in the '24 draft and that offense could be soaring next year.

[Shcritters]

As an FYI, there is a 2024 draft thread out there

[ericanadian]

For SF I think I agree. The top of the draft is very strong - 2 QBs, 1 WR and 1 TE (all elite).

At RB - it is shaky. But RB tends to round out later. There will be somebody who emerges and is worthy of a high pick for dynasty.

WR is solid - the college game changes quickly but right now the class looks significantly better than '23. At least as many WRs should be selected in the first round, they should go earlier and several of them are better (IMO) than JSN was a a prospect. JSN may turn out to be a better player - I'm just talking about how they profile as draft prospects. There's a reason JSN fell to the 20s. I expect several picked before that in '24. Two of the candidates will be on display in the game tomorrow night. . .

I don't agree with this. If JSN stays in school he's the clear WR2 in this class behind Harrison.

The gap after Harrison is gigantic. It'll be interesting to see who emerges from that Tier 2:

- Troy Franklin
- Rome Odunze
- Xavier Worthy
- Malik Nabers
- Emeka Egbuka
- Mario Williams

I don't know if all of these players are 1st round guys, but I agree that since there were only 4 first-round WRs this year, it shouldn't be that hard to match in theory.

Ok. As I said, I was speaking about JSN as a prospect only.

Question: If JSN is a better prospect than all the guys next year (other than MHJR), why did he drop to the 20's in the draft? And a draft was was lacking in WR talent.

JSN played the slot in his big year, so there were (and are) some questions about his ability to play outside. If he’s as talented as everything suggests he is, he likely shifts to the outside last year, continues to dominate and improves his draft stock substantially. I don’t think anyone was worried about his injury in terms of it hurting his athleticism or abilities, but rather it hurt him because it left question marks in his game and versatility.

[wickerkat1212]

With the DNA and history of his father, MHJ is going to be one of the first guys off the board. Might be third in Superflex, but will probably be first everywhere else.

I agree. Maybe 1.02 in SF.

True.

[Cameron Giles]

Through 3 games it appears the initial hype for 2023 was more/less accurate.

QBs: Stroud, Richardson both playing well. Rough road for Bryce Young, but he's still a big-time talent.

RBs: Bijan, Gibbs, and Achane all have flashed elite talent. And, there's still players like Spears, Bigsby, Ro. Johnson, and Charbonnet who are showing some encouraging signs here and there.

WR: Nacua has been an all-time revelation. Flowers, Addison, Mims, Mi. Wilson, Dell, Downs, Reed have all shown good flashes. And that's without considering what JSN, Rice, and Quentin Johnston could potentially do going forward.

TE: There's a ton of talent in this group. LaPorta is the only TE in NFL history to start a season 5+ receptions in his first 3 games. Musgrave and Kincaid have shown some good involvement. There are a lot more TEs who are looking more like the traditonal slow burn, but this group could usher in a new crop of upside TEs that the position has been lacking for a while.

Overall, if you bought into this class, you have to be pretty satisfied to this point. Especially if you're following the 2024 class and seeing that there are legitimate concerns about the depth of that class playing out so far.

[mild]

We are now through 4 games... as Cameron said above... a lot of the depth talent in this class is really starting to pop off.

I'm curious...

Funny looking back at the start of this thread now.

2023 draft turned out to be pretty weak IMO.
2022 felt like it had 15/16 1st round picks, 2023 felt like only about 8/9 1st round picks.

Oh well, hopefully 2024 will be back to a great class again.

Let them play a game in the league 1st damn

I know everyone says this is such a weak class, but I blew my team up to rebuild and got a bunch of 1sts and 2nds and I do like the guys I think I could get at each pick...

Yep. Really little interest in players like this, unless it's 3rd round rookie picks. I'm just very unimpressed with the RB's that supposedly make it a "deep" class. Overall, just not overly impressed. Certainly better looking than last year, though the top of last years was better IMO, with Breece and KW. Bijan, obviously is an elite looking prospect, but there isn't anyone to KW9's level, IMO.

I admittedly do not know as much about the non FF positions this year as other years, haven't had the time, so maybe if it's really weak it will push RB's up a bit, but I think a lot of these RB's people are high on are going day 3. A lot more than people would like, anyways.

I am not always right, but I am unfortunately right here. I am still struggling to put together the late first/2nd round rankings for my drafts.

For the people that were unimpressed with this class and called it "weak" - how's it going?

Seems to me it's got solid hits all the way down to the late rounds, and is proving it's worth as a very depthy class - as it currently stands:

Absolute slam dunks:
Bijan, Stroud, Richardson, Laporta, Achane, Puka, Mims

Very encouraging signs, clearly some talent:
Flowers, Addison, Dell, Mi. Wilson, Downs, Reed, Spears, Bigsby, Ro. Johnson, Charb, Musgrave, Kincaid

Still got a pulse, need to see more:
Bryce Young, JSN, QJ, Kendre, Rice, Hyatt, Mayer

From those first two lists, there's 14 players I've listed who would have been in the Top 24 of most of our drafts. 14/24 is a 58% hit rate, which is definitely not bad. If you had a Top 24 pick this draft and got one of those guys, you're probably pretty encouraged by this draft right now.

It also still has room to grow if any of that "still got a pulse" list jump up to relevance in the coming -checks notes- "13 weeks of regular season football".

Pretty good draft class if you ask me.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

We are now through 4 games... as Cameron said above... a lot of the depth talent in this class is really starting to pop off.

I'm curious...

Funny looking back at the start of this thread now.

2023 draft turned out to be pretty weak IMO.
2022 felt like it had 15/16 1st round picks, 2023 felt like only about 8/9 1st round picks.

Oh well, hopefully 2024 will be back to a great class again.

Let them play a game in the league 1st damn

I know everyone says this is such a weak class, but I blew my team up to rebuild and got a bunch of 1sts and 2nds and I do like the guys I think I could get at each pick...

Yep. Really little interest in players like this, unless it's 3rd round rookie picks. I'm just very unimpressed with the RB's that supposedly make it a "deep" class. Overall, just not overly impressed. Certainly better looking than last year, though the top of last years was better IMO, with Breece and KW. Bijan, obviously is an elite looking prospect, but there isn't anyone to KW9's level, IMO.

I admittedly do not know as much about the non FF positions this year as other years, haven't had the time, so maybe if it's really weak it will push RB's up a bit, but I think a lot of these RB's people are high on are going day 3. A lot more than people would like, anyways.

I am not always right, but I am unfortunately right here. I am still struggling to put together the late first/2nd round rankings for my drafts.

For the people that were unimpressed with this class and called it "weak" - how's it going?

Seems to me it's got solid hits all the way down to the late rounds, and is proving it's worth as a very depthy class - as it currently stands:

Absolute slam dunks:
Bijan, Stroud, Richardson, Laporta, Achane, Puka, Mims

Very encouraging signs, clearly some talent:
Flowers, Addison, Dell, Mi. Wilson, Downs, Reed, Spears, Bigsby, Ro. Johnson, Charb, Musgrave, Kincaid

Still got a pulse, need to see more:
Bryce Young, JSN, QJ, Kendre, Rice, Hyatt, Mayer

From those first two lists, there's 14 players I've listed who would have been in the Top 24 of most of our drafts. 14/24 is a 58% hit rate, which is definitely not bad. If you had a Top 24 pick this draft and got one of those guys, you're probably pretty encouraged by this draft right now.

It also still has room to grow if any of that "still got a pulse" list jump up to relevance in the coming -checks notes- "13 weeks of regular season football".

Pretty good draft class if you ask me.

Nearly half those slam dunks aren’t slam dunks. Would be funny to view this post 5 years from now.

But anyway. The whole idea about evaluating a class is not after the fact saying “oh look at this 5th round receiver that turned into a stud”. It has to be based on actionable information. That’s just my opinion anyway.

[mild]

Nearly half those slam dunks aren’t slam dunks. Would be funny to view this post 5 years from now.

But anyway. The whole idea about evaluating a class is not after the fact saying “oh look at this 5th round receiver that turned into a stud”. It has to be based on actionable information. That’s just my opinion anyway.

Very curious who you think isn't a slam dunk out of:

Stroud
Richardson
Bijan
Achane
Laporta
Puka

The only one that probably needs a "relative to where you drafted him, and still needs to show more in an expanded role" is Mims - but he is everything you hope to see in a late 2nd/early 3rd prospect on a bad team through 4 games.

If you're telling me you don't think those others appear to have hit majorly in the pros at their positions, then... wow...

[Sriracha]

Nearly half those slam dunks aren’t slam dunks. Would be funny to view this post 5 years from now.

But anyway. The whole idea about evaluating a class is not after the fact saying “oh look at this 5th round receiver that turned into a stud”. It has to be based on actionable information. That’s just my opinion anyway.

Very curious who you think isn't a slam dunk out of:

Stroud
Richardson
Bijan
Achane
Laporta
Puka

The only one that probably needs a "relative to where you drafted him, and still needs to show more in an expanded role" is Mims - but he is everything you hope to see in a late 2nd/early 3rd prospect on a bad team through 4 games.

If you're telling me you don't think those others appear to have hit majorly in the pros at their positions, then... wow...

Those would be two guys I wouldn't consider a slam dunk, just yet.

Encouraging signs for sure but Mostert also absolutely exploded vs the Broncos during Achane's breakout game and they're literally the worst defense of all time according to DVOA, atm.

Richardson still has a lot to work on but he's flashing -- which is exactly what you want to see out of a raw but talented prospect like him.

Mims is more of the same. Flashing elite talent but how much confidence can you really have in the 30 routes he's run this year to project out his career?

As for the class, the later rounds picks have really shown out this year. At WR at least this class reminds me a lot of 2019. Flawed WR prospects with elite talents that will have them succeed despite their faults.

[mild]

Those would be two guys I wouldn't consider a slam dunk, just yet.

Encouraging signs for sure but Mostert also absolutely exploded vs the Broncos during Achane's breakout game and they're literally the worst defense of all time according to DVOA, atm.

Richardson still has a lot to work on but he's flashing -- which is exactly what you want to see out of a raw but talented prospect like him.

Mims is more of the same. Flashing elite talent but how much confidence can you really have in the 30 routes he's run this year to project out his career?

I'd fight back on Richardson - I think he's already shown far more command of a Pro Offense than a lot of us here were expecting (I'm taking my L on him as being "too raw") and is also displaying high-end fantasy scoring potential as one of the best rushers in the game.

He's so good, he's got value in 1QB leagues. He has that kind of scoring upside.

Achane, fair if you want to bump him down to "Very encouraging signs, need to see more". Ditto Mims.

I really don't mind if we're nitpicking the categories, I was just going off what I see/think - you're welcome to adjust per your own tastes.

Either way - between the "absolute slam dunk" and "hot damn, we might be in business" tiers - we are still talking about a very respectable amount of hits and semi-hits for this much maligned 2023 class.

I ask again: where are the "it's a weak class" people at?

[Sriracha]

Those would be two guys I wouldn't consider a slam dunk, just yet.

Encouraging signs for sure but Mostert also absolutely exploded vs the Broncos during Achane's breakout game and they're literally the worst defense of all time according to DVOA, atm.

Richardson still has a lot to work on but he's flashing -- which is exactly what you want to see out of a raw but talented prospect like him.

Mims is more of the same. Flashing elite talent but how much confidence can you really have in the 30 routes he's run this year to project out his career?

I'd fight back on Richardson - I think he's already shown far more command of a Pro Offense than a lot of us here were expecting (I'm taking my L on him as being "too raw") and is also displaying high-end fantasy scoring potential as one of the best rushers in the game.

He's so good, he's got value in 1QB leagues. He has that kind of scoring upside.

Achane, fair if you want to bump him down to "Very encouraging signs, need to see more". Ditto Mims.

I really don't mind if we're nitpicking the categories, I was just going off what I see/think - you're welcome to adjust per your own tastes.

Either way - between the "absolute slam dunk" and "hot damn, we might be in business" tiers - we are still talking about a very respectable amount of hits and semi-hits for this much maligned 2023 class.

I ask again: where are the "it's a weak class" people at?

Agreed that this class is far exceeding expectations up to this point... although if you had a mid 1st round pick you're probably not too happy right now. A lot of the talent was hidden by "flawed" WR prospects with elite traits that many people overlooked. Some of the biggest hits so far; Puka isn't the fastest or the most skilled but just gets open and catches the football. Tank Dell was a mighty mouse that people thought was too small to succeed. Michael Wilson was perennially injured and was easy to skip if you weren't keeping track of the Senior Bowl. Rashee Rice can't beat press coverage or separate but is simultaneously an immense YAC talent while having great feel vs the zone (led all 2023 WRs in YPRR vs zone coverage); etc.

What the success of the older receivers in this draft class might be pointing to is that the effect COVID year had on player development may have been underestimated.

[Cameron Giles]

This class looks a lot closer to what people thought it would be before last year's college season than what people thought it was post-draft.

There really isn't a position group that isn't flashing with some sort of high-level talent producing immediately + appealing prospect depth behind it. You just don't see that much in classes. Usually it's "this is a WR class" or "it's a RB class". So far, this has the potential to have everything.

Great class for Superflex.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

I remember during my SF rookie drafts there was a consensus top 11. After those top 11 it was the Wild West of who would go next. Of those 11, 5 players are totally up in the air. Bryce Young, JSN, QJ, Kincaid, Levis. There’s only 2-3 likely studs in Bijan, Stroud, and AR. The others (Gibbs, Addison, Flowers) are promising, but hard to predict superstardom. After those 11 you have the usual smattering of hits and misses throughout the 2nd round. Puka hitting is great but that didn’t really help anyone during their rookie drafts. If you had a 1st in SF you had just about as good a chance of ending up with a potential turd as with a hit (like it is most years)