Rookie WR Production 2023

[Orenthal Shames]

Any Pats fan have any insight on Pop Douglas? I've only seen highlights. The stat sheet looks good the past few weeks, albeit on a trash team.

[Orenthal Shames]

Tillman is slowly getting more work in the offense, but his blocking has been absolutely exceptional.

[wickerkat1212]

Tillman is slowly getting more work in the offense, but his blocking has been absolutely exceptional.

I like to hear that. I'm holding all shares.

[Cameron Giles]

11/22 - Open Score

*Tank Dell: 82
*Zay Flowers: 73
*Josh Downs: 68
Puka Nacua: 63
Dalton Kincaid: 60
Dontayvion Wicks: 57
Luke Musgrave: 57
Rashee Rice: 54
Jayden Reed: 50
Jordan Addison: 49
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 49
Michael Mayer: 47
Trey Palmer: 46
Sam LaPorta: 43
----
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 33
Quentin Johnston: 28
Jonathan Mingo: 24

Bold = Top-20 Open Score
* = Top-20 Overall Score

11/29 Open Score

*Tank Dell: 81
*Zay Flowers: 73
Josh Downs: 66
Puka Nacua: 62
Dalton Kincaid: 62
Dontayvion Wicks: 57
Luke Musgrave: 57
Rashee Rice: 57
Jalin Hyatt: 52
Michael Mayer: 52
Jayden Reed: 51
Jordan Addison: 51
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 51
Trey Palmer: 48
Sam LaPorta: 46
----
Michael Wilson: 36
Demario Douglas: 36
Jonathan Mingo: 28
Quentin Johnston: 26

Bold = Top-20 Open Score
* = Top-20 Overall Score

Additions: Jalin Hyatt (52)
Notables: Smith-Njigba and Addison both over the 50 threshold

[Orenthal Shames]

So is Douglas a sell based on open score? He scored well in Harmon's updated reception perception:

*72.7% success rate vs. man coverage, 5th best
*71.4% success rate vs. press, 4th best

[Cameron Giles]

So is Douglas a sell based on open score? He scored well in Harmon's updated reception perception:

*72.7% success rate vs. man coverage, 5th best
*71.4% success rate vs. press, 4th best

I don't think he's a sell. New England sucks at evaluating offenses, but one thing they consistently do well is maximize these slot players long-term and Douglas seems to be next in line. The only caveat I have is if they move on from Belichick at the end of the season.

My guess is that it could be something in the scheme overall for why he hasn't popped in OS. I haven't watched the Patriots too hard though. He moved up 3 points though with the last game, so whatever it was, he seems to be moving up. I think he gets in the 40s by the end of the season.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So is Douglas a sell based on open score? He scored well in Harmon's updated reception perception:

*72.7% success rate vs. man coverage, 5th best
*71.4% success rate vs. press, 4th best

If the year ends and his open score stinks, then yes he’s probably a sell. Couple of key criteria, YPG, PFF Receiving Grade, Open Score. They’re all based upon year end numbers. So essentially we have to wait to see.

[Sriracha]

So is Douglas a sell based on open score? He scored well in Harmon's updated reception perception:

*72.7% success rate vs. man coverage, 5th best
*71.4% success rate vs. press, 4th best

I don't think he's a sell. New England sucks at evaluating offenses, but one thing they consistently do well is maximize these slot players long-term and Douglas seems to be next in line. The only caveat I have is if they move on from Belichick at the end of the season.

My guess is that it could be something in the scheme overall for why he hasn't popped in OS. I haven't watched the Patriots too hard though. He moved up 3 points though with the last game, so whatever it was, he seems to be moving up. I think he gets in the 40s by the end of the season.

This is a good reason to sell, imo.

The guy has been productive but he's done so with virtually 0 target competition. If you can sell someone on the NE slot receiver mystique I'm probably moving him if I can get a 2nd or early 3rd for him.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

So is Douglas a sell based on open score? He scored well in Harmon's updated reception perception:

*72.7% success rate vs. man coverage, 5th best
*71.4% success rate vs. press, 4th best

I don't think he's a sell. New England sucks at evaluating offenses, but one thing they consistently do well is maximize these slot players long-term and Douglas seems to be next in line. The only caveat I have is if they move on from Belichick at the end of the season.

My guess is that it could be something in the scheme overall for why he hasn't popped in OS. I haven't watched the Patriots too hard though. He moved up 3 points though with the last game, so whatever it was, he seems to be moving up. I think he gets in the 40s by the end of the season.

This is a good reason to sell, imo.

The guy has been productive but he's done so with virtually 0 target competition. If you can sell someone on the NE slot receiver mystique I'm probably moving him if I can get a 2nd or early 3rd for him.

Yeah. If the season ended today, I’d probably try to sell for a 2nd and 3rd, and then could be negotiated down to any 2nd. Maybe 2 3rds. When selling a wr with a pulse like this, I really aim to get multiple shots back in return for the 1

But anyway, the 3 big indicators are ypg (47+ ideally), certainly in Douglas’s situation where he has zero target competition. PFF receiving grade (80+), which is very difficult to achieve. And Open Score (less than 45 seems to be a really bad sign). Right now he hasn’t checked any of those boxes, so in theory he’d be a sell. Now that could change between now and the end of the season.

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

[Sriracha]

Yeah. If the season ended today, I’d probably try to sell for a 2nd and 3rd, and then could be negotiated down to any 2nd. Maybe 2 3rds. When selling a wr with a pulse like this, I really aim to get multiple shots back in return for the 1

But anyway, the 3 big indicators are ypg (47+ ideally), certainly in Douglas’s situation where he has zero target competition. PFF receiving grade (80+), which is very difficult to achieve. And Open Score (less than 45 seems to be a really bad sign). Right now he hasn’t checked any of those boxes, so in theory he’d be a sell. Now that could change between now and the end of the season.

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

I’d jump at a second in this class short of Douglas ending the year on a tear given the lack of target competition.

The upside of those receivers is well worth what we know about Douglas today.

Re: Harmon He’s a film guy that tries to marry the film with the data. He’s a little better than typical film guys but is still susceptible to the same pitfalls.

In general I think he’s pretty good at what he does. He’s gone OOaL on guys like Aiyuk, Allen Robinson and Jayden Reed before they were in vogue and has tried to temper expectations on guys like Watson.

He has the occasional whiffs like Dante Petttis, Bateman, Elijah Moore and Jahan Dotson but I do take in his data as another data point even if it isn’t the whole story.

[Cameron Giles]

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

Harmon's never been a hot take guy, so he tends to give pretty even analysis. If he isn't high on someone, he'll give them grace by just mentioning they need a particular situation to succeed (Burks). But, he does stick his neck out pretty far when receivers hit certain thresholds for better or worse. Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis are probably his worst misses recently. I don't think he's dead on Dotson or Moore just yet.

But he's been in on a lot of players before they blew up: Allen Robinson, Lockett, Diggs, Amon Ra, Aiyuk, Diontae...I could go for a while.

I think his reports are super informative and he's on the higher end of tape analysis. Obviously he can't chart every single route, because he's one person, but it still tends to be more useful and accurate than not and he has a great deal of credibility from a lot of sharp people in that community.

I've found it to be a useful part of the puzzle that I can cross check some things with. He was spot on for example on the types of routes that Tank Dell would excel at.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Curious after watching Jayden Reed having a good rushing half to go with his receiving if rushing yds or yards from scrimmage by WRs has any predictive value or if its just receiving yds.

Not really, no. I looked into this before and it just creates a bunch of false positives

Actually found where I looked into this. Long story short, it doesn’t really change much.

If you factor in Viska’s rushing yards and/or remove the game where he left after the first series I think he’d be in the tier above

This list was intentionally excluding rushing numbers I believe.

I would be curious to see a list that did include all scrimmage yards though and see if it changes things historically. Aiyuk, Lamb, and Shenault all had 5-10 rush yards per game.

Not sure if this is quite what you're asking but these are the receivers who would get a big boost from adding rushing yards (>70 rushing yards, 9+ games played)

Yds from Scrimmage/G
----------74---------- Joey Galloway (64 Receiving YPG)
----------72---------- Eddie Royal (65 Receiving YPG)
----------68---------- Brandon Aiyuk (62 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- CeeDee Lamb (59 Receiving YPG)
----------64---------- Deebo Samuel (53 Receiving YPG)
----------63---------- DeSean Jackson (57 Receiving YPG)
----------62---------- Brandon Cooks (55 Receiving YPG)
----------61---------- Percy Harvin (52 Receiving YPG)
----------60---------- DJ Moore (49 Receiving YPG)
----------58---------- Lee Evans (52 Receiving YPG)
----------57---------- Michael Westbrook (47 Receiving YPG)
----------53---------- Tyreek Hill (37 Receiving YPG)
----------48---------- Laviska Shenault (40 Receiving YPG)
----------46---------- Peter Warrick (37 Receiving YPG)
----------43---------- Tavon Austin (32 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Cordarrelle Patterson (29 Receiving YPG)
----------39---------- Jacoby Ford (29 Receiving YPG)
----------33---------- Reidel Anthony (28 Receiving YPG)


It shuffles things around but not sure it means much. The top of the list is still comprised of the guys with the best Receiving yards per game. It bumps most guys up a tier but not really sure it's warranted. It changes Eddie Royal from 50/50 to a can't miss stud lol. The only major positive change I see in which it takes a guy from the depths and brings him up to relevancy is Tyreek, who happened to destroy everyone else in rushing yards per game @ 16.7. Next highest was Tavon Austin @ 11.6. For context, Shenault is at 7.2 Rushing YPG and Lamb is at 5.3 Rushing YPG.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

Harmon's never been a hot take guy, so he tends to give pretty even analysis. If he isn't high on someone, he'll give them grace by just mentioning they need a particular situation to succeed (Burks). But, he does stick his neck out pretty far when receivers hit certain thresholds for better or worse. Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis are probably his worst misses recently. I don't think he's dead on Dotson or Moore just yet.

But he's been in on a lot of players before they blew up: Allen Robinson, Lockett, Diggs, Amon Ra, Aiyuk, Diontae...I could go for a while.

I think his reports are super informative and he's on the higher end of tape analysis. Obviously he can't chart every single route, because he's one person, but it still tends to be more useful and accurate than not and he has a great deal of credibility from a lot of sharp people in that community.

I've found it to be a useful part of the puzzle that I can cross check some things with. He was spot on for example on the types of routes that Tank Dell would excel at.

I think his report could be a useful secondary tool. For example, take the 47+ group. If cross referenced with his report, could we make heads or tails of who will be the bust and who won’t.

If I subbed for a month, do you get access to previous years reports?

[Cameron Giles]

Reception Perception seems like a good idea, but unfortunately they don’t chart all the games. And we also know that getting open doesn’t always equate to success. Matt Harmon has had a litany of bad calls it’s just nobody remembers them. I don’t subscribe but just based on what I see on social media he also seems to pump up every wr with a pulse, so that if they hit he can see “see I told you so!”. If they don’t hit he just blames the team or coaching staff for a couple of years until everybody forgets about them. It’s only the very obvious busts he says to avoid.

Harmon's never been a hot take guy, so he tends to give pretty even analysis. If he isn't high on someone, he'll give them grace by just mentioning they need a particular situation to succeed (Burks). But, he does stick his neck out pretty far when receivers hit certain thresholds for better or worse. Curtis Samuel and Dante Pettis are probably his worst misses recently. I don't think he's dead on Dotson or Moore just yet.

But he's been in on a lot of players before they blew up: Allen Robinson, Lockett, Diggs, Amon Ra, Aiyuk, Diontae...I could go for a while.

I think his reports are super informative and he's on the higher end of tape analysis. Obviously he can't chart every single route, because he's one person, but it still tends to be more useful and accurate than not and he has a great deal of credibility from a lot of sharp people in that community.

I've found it to be a useful part of the puzzle that I can cross check some things with. He was spot on for example on the types of routes that Tank Dell would excel at.

I think his report could be a useful secondary tool. For example, take the 47+ group. If cross referenced with his report, could we make heads or tails of who will be the bust and who won’t.

If I subbed for a month, do you get access to previous years reports?

I think you only get reports going back to 2021 if you sign up. Even though he's been doing it for a while, he hasn't had an official website until a few years ago. You can find a lot of the older write-ups on Fantasy Footballers and somewhere else.

[Jigga94]

As far as Douglas goes, a 2nd would definitely make me sell right now. Might be worth noting that he hardly played until week 7 which was when all the WR injuries started hitting. Since week 7 he's been averaging 53.4 ypg. Hes got a good chance to hit 47 if he can keep his average up. But I'm sure you could do this for many rookies who start slow as well. I think he gets open a little better than the open score represents as well. Might just have to be one of those eye test guys I end up holding. Him and Reed are the ones I have my eyes on the most