Cooper Kupp - Value Up?

[Phaded]

The biggest thing that benefits Cooper Kupp - and this is not to take anything away from him, because he's playing very well in the role that he has, is that Jared Goff loves to work the middle of the field. That's why Everett also had a big game on Thursday in addition to Kupp. In the last three games, Kupp is averaging almost 15 targets per game. That would put him on pace to surpass the most targeted receiver last year by nearly an insane 60 targets. His current target pace is not sustainable.

The situation is excellent - but you also have to realize that Kupp is playing the middle of the field, we've seen those receivers end up with excellent fantasy value (the Wes Welkers, Julian Edelmans, etc of the world) but what you also have to realize is that the Rams have thrown an absurd 117 times over the last two games.

And while it's easy for us to say there is no way they let Kupp walk after the 2020 season, I have a hard time seeing them coming up with the financials to keep him.

Bottom line - this year, and potentially next it is hard to see Kupp slowing down but if you feed ANY receiver the targets that Kupp is getting, the production would be similar.

[themburns]

Cooper Kupp is a WR1 in terms of production, but this is absolutely a wonderful time to sell him. I'd wait until the weekly review podcasts come out to start making blind offers to contenders.

Phaded's point about Kupp being on an unsustainable target volume needs to be heeded. He doesn't have the track record of the other top options, and there are many scenarios in which his situation gets worse. It's sort of like the concept of anti-fragility, or embracing roster choices that make one's team stronger in the event of injuries. Many things can go wrong for Kupp. What else, within reason can go wrong for Stefon Diggs?

Simply, Kupp's age puts him out of the conversation of WR1 overall in dynasty forever. That doesn't mean he's not valuable, or that he hasn't been heretofore underappreciated. The fundamentals of the situation are just too unsteady.

[Cameron Giles]

He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.

Such certainty. What is that based on? He's leading the league in every receiving category - receiving yards, receptions and TD's at the 1/4 pole (includes Thursday game and Keenan's gonna retake it, but still). Most impressively he's overall WR2 for average weekly PPR points, just a hair behind Keenan.

Having said that, I'd put the odds fairly low that he ever becomes the overall dynasty WR1 and stays there. But it absolutely could happen. It's possible. All he's gotta do is keep producing like he has. Besides the question was really when will Kupp be in the conversation as the overall WR1. Honestly, there are only 6 or 8 WR's I'd easily take over him now. About 1/2 that many or so I'd have as roughly the same as him.

As long as he & Goff are together in that McVay O though and he's healthy, that dude's gonna keep balling out. Perennial top 5 production would not surprise in the least. What's that worth? At least a ticket to the overall WR1 conversation at some point.

Just have to pencil him in for 200+ targets a year then.

[hoos89]

When does this discussion turn to Kupp being THE #1 fantasy WR?

He has the targets, high enough skill and top offense. He is not the most talented WR in the game, but in fantasy PPR he is the most valuable.

When he's putting up numbers against cornerbacks instead of linebackers. He's too dependent on situation.

[trc]

When does this discussion turn to Kupp being THE #1 fantasy WR?

He has the targets, high enough skill and top offense. He is not the most talented WR in the game, but in fantasy PPR he is the most valuable.

When he's putting up numbers against cornerbacks instead of linebackers. He's too dependent on situation.

But that situation looks the same for the next 3½ year.
Woods on contracts through 2022
Cooks through 2024
Goff through 2025
Gurley through 2024

And it doesn't look like McVay is going anywhere either..

[bjd5211]

When does this discussion turn to Kupp being THE #1 fantasy WR?

He has the targets, high enough skill and top offense. He is not the most talented WR in the game, but in fantasy PPR he is the most valuable.

When he's putting up numbers against cornerbacks instead of linebackers. He's too dependent on situation.

But that situation looks the same for the next 3½ year.
Woods on contracts through 2022
Cooks through 2024
Goff through 2025
Gurley through 2024

And it doesn't look like McVay is going anywhere either..

And Kupps deal is up after next year.

[hoos89]

Sure, but teams may decide to start shifting coverage towards him. I'm all for Kupp as a WR1, but I can't justify making a guy who is facing the kind of coverage he does overall WR1.

[FantasyFreak]

I think you're misguided if you're considering Kupp as the WR1 overall. This should not even be a conversation. I think it's ridiculous to try and predict situation 3 years from now in the NFL, as some are doing. Good luck with that.

[Ice]

Kupp is a legit WR1. Get use to it.

He runs great routes, gets open, has great hands, and has developed very good chemistry. He is lethal in the slot but has the size needed to play anywhere. (6'2")

He leads the league in targets and is one of 5 WR's averaging over 100 yards per game. he has 1 drop and 4 TD's.

Yards per game leaders ( Targets in )
Gallup 113 (29) Missed 2 games
Thomas 108.6 (55)
Cooper 102.4 (43)
Godwin 102.2 (43)
Kupp 101 (65)

Chark 97 (37)

While he isn't in the conversation as WR1 overall he is certainly in the conversation as a top 12 WR which makes him a WR1.

Kupp has a catch rate of 65.1% which is lower than those above which is more a concern of his QB given only 1 drop but 65.1% is still a solid number.

Thomas is the number 1 overall WR. He gets tons of targets, leads the league in yards and has an outstanding 81.8% catch rate.

[bjd5211]

Yup, I'm totally in agreement that he's A WR1, he just doesn't belong in the discussion for THE WR1.

[pvillebiker]

He could very well end up the #1 overall WR in scoring this year, but he will never be valued as the #1 overall asset at the WR position in Dynasty.

Having said that, I'd put the odds fairly low that he ever becomes the overall dynasty WR1 and stays there. But it absolutely could happen. It's possible. All he's gotta do is keep producing like he has. Besides the question was really when will Kupp be in the conversation as the overall WR1. Honestly, there are only 6 or 8 WR's I'd easily take over him now. About 1/2 that many or so I'd have as roughly the same as him.

As long as he & Goff are together in that McVay O though and he's healthy, that dude's gonna keep balling out. Perennial top 5 production would not surprise in the least. What's that worth? At least a ticket to the overall WR1 conversation at some point.

Just have to pencil him in for 200+ targets a year then.

I'd put the over/under for Kupp's targets this year at ~170, the same # Julio got last year. But I do agree that the ~15 targets/game over last 3 games is bound for regression lower.

As I've said, it's very unlikely Kupp is ever the overall WR1. But it's crazy to say it's impossible or there's nothing he could actually do to ever get in the conversation as the top WR (which is probably more like 5 WR's being debated as top dog at any point in time) simply because he doesn't fit the prototypical WR1 mold. That's all.

Side observation - it's fascinating that we seem to have moved thru the next phase of denial on Kupp's dynasty value. Many (most?) are now accepting that he's a fantasy WR1 when not to long ago very few held that view. Could absolutely be recency bias. Then again, maybe it's just truth?

[hoos89]

It's not just that he's not a prototypical WR1; it's that he faces uniquely soft coverage. His production demands inclusion in the top 12 WRs, but I think he's too vulnerable to a shift in coverage to be considered overall WR1. There's a limited number of guys who can reasonably be included in that list...guys who have proven that they can put up numbers even when they're THE guy that defenses try to take away, not when they're the 4th guy (after Gurley, Cooks, and Woods) that defenses decide to try to make beat them.

Overall WR1 conversation right now starts and ends with 6 guys: Thomas, Nuk, OBJ, Adams, Keenan and Hill. I think Amari is making a case for inclusion but he needs to keep up this production for a full season. I don't think Godwin can be on the list for as long as Evans draws top coverage. Julio is too old.

[Mike from Canada]

Amari is too inconsistent and too soft against physical corners. Great route runner though.

[hoos89]

Amari is too inconsistent and too soft against physical corners. Great route runner though.

He's WR4 on the year though...22.6, 14.4, 26.8, 9.8, 39.6. That's not particularly worse consistency than any player in the WR1 conversation aside from Michael Thomas. He was obviously less consistent with the Raiders, but I don't think that's relevant now, and I think it's fair to dismiss the inconsistency with the Cowboys last season due to the fact that he switched teams in the middle of the season. Like I said, I need to see more before I'm ready to put him in the conversation, but I don't think it's crazy to think he play his way into the conversation this year.

[ericanadian]

It's not just that he's not a prototypical WR1; it's that he faces uniquely soft coverage. His production demands inclusion in the top 12 WRs, but I think he's too vulnerable to a shift in coverage to be considered overall WR1. There's a limited number of guys who can reasonably be included in that list...guys who have proven that they can put up numbers even when they're THE guy that defenses try to take away, not when they're the 4th guy (after Gurley, Cooks, and Woods) that defenses decide to try to make beat them.

Overall WR1 conversation right now starts and ends with 6 guys: Thomas, Nuk, OBJ, Adams, Keenan and Hill. I think Amari is making a case for inclusion but he needs to keep up this production for a full season. I don't think Godwin can be on the list for as long as Evans draws top coverage. Julio is too old.

Should we really be worried about the shift in coverage though? I think of guys like Welker, Colston and other very productive guys that primarily manned the slot and I’m not sure teams really ever shifted coverage their way, and if they did, was there really much of an effect? Leaving Cooks open over the top to take away the underneath option makes near zero sense to me. Even Goff can murder you deep if you do that regularly.