Moving Cousins (Again)

[Anteaters]

The only reason I think he MIGHT take it is if he really sees my picks as 1.02 and 2.02 and is okay tanking again this year to tear up the 2025 draft. But I don't think he feels that way.

If he gives you all those draft picks to go with the ones you already have, I doubt you'll earn your way to the 2025 1.02. I'd guess mid-round at worst and maybe even a playoff team. I'm sure he looks at it the same way.

Wishful thinking is fun, but I don't waste too much time on it. It's like dreaming of winning the lottery and creating wild strategies to win. It's not worth thinking about that much.

Would you do this same offer without the 1.03? That's the tricky part, I need that for a replacement QB, and he wants to keep that for a QB as well.

I would try first for the 1.03 + 2.11 without the other picks coming back to you. Give him everything you're offering now. If that didn't work, I'm okay with giving him everything just for the 1.03.

As you said, your #1 goal is a young QB. In SF, that's gold. Maybe you nickel-and-dime this guy over five rounds of negotiations and squeeze a dart throw pick out of him. OTOH, do you want to capsize negotiations while you're trying to add a late 2nd?

Your team probably won't be ready to contend until 2025. That makes BRob expendable. Downs isn't much to lose. Basically you're giving Cousins+mid'25first for the 1.03. I think that's a good deal for you. There's no guarantee Cousins will be good enough to help your team win when it's ready in 2025 or 2026.

The risk to not doing this deal now is after the season Cousins will be a year older. While almost everyone is giddy with the idea of him going to Atlanta, what if Cousins doesn't play as well as before? He is going into his age 36 season. Next year I don't know if you'll be able to build a trade around Cousins to acquire the 1.03. And that's not a risk I'd be willing to take with an old(er) QB coming off injury.

[wickerkat1212]

If he gives you all those draft picks to go with the ones you already have, I doubt you'll earn your way to the 2025 1.02. I'd guess mid-round at worst and maybe even a playoff team. I'm sure he looks at it the same way.

Wishful thinking is fun, but I don't waste too much time on it. It's like dreaming of winning the lottery and creating wild strategies to win. It's not worth thinking about that much.

Would you do this same offer without the 1.03? That's the tricky part, I need that for a replacement QB, and he wants to keep that for a QB as well.

I would try first for the 1.03 + 2.11 without the other picks coming back to you. Give him everything you're offering now. If that didn't work, I'm okay with giving him everything just for the 1.03.

As you said, your #1 goal is a young QB. In SF, that's gold. Maybe you nickel-and-dime this guy over five rounds of negotiations and squeeze a dart throw pick out of him. OTOH, do you want to capsize negotiations while you're trying to add a late 2nd?

Your team probably won't be ready to contend until 2025. That makes BRob expendable. Downs isn't much to lose. Basically you're giving Cousins+mid'25first for the 1.03. I think that's a good deal for you. There's no guarantee Cousins will be good enough to help your team win when it's ready in 2025 or 2026.

The risk to not doing this deal now is after the season Cousins will be a year older. While almost everyone is giddy with the idea of him going to Atlanta, what if Cousins doesn't play as well as before? He is going into his age 36 season. Next year I don't know if you'll be able to build a trade around Cousins to acquire the 1.03. And that's not a risk I'd be willing to take with an old(er) QB coming off injury.

Cool. Thanks. Appreciate the thoughtful post.

[Anteaters]

Thought I'd leave something else to consider.

In this age of Brady, the assumption seems to be that every QB who is at least very good can make it to age 40 while still playing at their peak. That's not nearly the case.

Russell Wilson is basically the same age as Cousins and has started to decline already. Exchange Russ for Cousins in this deal and consider what your odds would be of any Russ-centered deal being accepted.

Matt Ryan started slipping during his age 35-36 season.

Tannehill isn't even 36 yet and his value is toast.

Ben Roethlisberger looked like Night Of The Living Dead after his age 36 season.

Andy Dalton's struggles started at 32-33.

Aging QBs have value to contenders. Rebuilding teams should not bet on aging QBs holding on long enough to help the team down the road.

I'm just saying, if you really want to move Cousins for value, don't be greedy, be speedy.

[TheTroll]

Thought I'd leave something else to consider.

In this age of Brady, the assumption seems to be that every QB who is at least very good can make it to age 40 while still playing at their peak. That's not nearly the case.

Russell Wilson is basically the same age as Cousins and has started to decline already. Exchange Russ for Cousins in this deal and consider what your odds would be of any Russ-centered deal being accepted.

Matt Ryan started slipping during his age 35-36 season.

Tannehill isn't even 36 yet and his value is toast.

Ben Roethlisberger looked like Night Of The Living Dead after his age 36 season.

Andy Dalton's struggles started at 32-33.

Aging QBs have value to contenders. Rebuilding teams should not bet on aging QBs holding on long enough to help the team down the road.

I'm just saying, if you really want to move Cousins for value, don't be greedy, be speedy.

The Eater of Ants speaks da truth.

[Menace2010]

Thought I'd leave something else to consider.

In this age of Brady, the assumption seems to be that every QB who is at least very good can make it to age 40 while still playing at their peak. That's not nearly the case.

Russell Wilson is basically the same age as Cousins and has started to decline already. Exchange Russ for Cousins in this deal and consider what your odds would be of any Russ-centered deal being accepted.

Matt Ryan started slipping during his age 35-36 season.

Tannehill isn't even 36 yet and his value is toast.

Ben Roethlisberger looked like Night Of The Living Dead after his age 36 season.

Andy Dalton's struggles started at 32-33.

Aging QBs have value to contenders. Rebuilding teams should not bet on aging QBs holding on long enough to help the team down the road.

I'm just saying, if you really want to move Cousins for value, don't be greedy, be speedy.

The Eater of Ants speaks da truth.

I agree with everything in this post, but disagree on timing. I have absolutely no interest in moving Cousins right this second. Rookie fever is out of control... after Week 1, hell after training camp when the hype and the "He's in the best shape of his life" narratives are out of control, I guarantee he'll be worth more than he is right now to a contender. The only way this isn't true, is if he gets injured. I'm taking that risk over the 1.11 or a combo of darts in the 2nd.

[Mtt33]

Thought I'd leave something else to consider.

In this age of Brady, the assumption seems to be that every QB who is at least very good can make it to age 40 while still playing at their peak. That's not nearly the case.

Russell Wilson is basically the same age as Cousins and has started to decline already. Exchange Russ for Cousins in this deal and consider what your odds would be of any Russ-centered deal being accepted.

Matt Ryan started slipping during his age 35-36 season.

Tannehill isn't even 36 yet and his value is toast.

Ben Roethlisberger looked like Night Of The Living Dead after his age 36 season.

Andy Dalton's struggles started at 32-33.

Aging QBs have value to contenders. Rebuilding teams should not bet on aging QBs holding on long enough to help the team down the road.

I'm just saying, if you really want to move Cousins for value, don't be greedy, be speedy.

While I agree with the premise most of these aren’t great comps. Ryan is a good one…
Tannehill and even Dalton are far worse qbs than cousins IMO, even in the years they put up similar numbers.
Wilson, while significantly better than cousins in his prime, relied heavily on his athleticism
Roeth A) didn’t stay in great shape and B) took massive hits and was always injured. He was best into a pulp by the end.


Anyways I do still agree with the overall premise, but I also think cousins looks to me like the kind of guy that’s putting work in similar to brady to keep his body “young”. That said old man coming off major injury isn’t something I’m investing in unless I really need a qb to put me over the top.

[wickerkat1212]

Thanks, guys, appreciate all of the input here.

[wickerkat1212]

Would you move Cousins for the 2.03 + any of these WRs?

Aiyuk WR12—probably too much (age 26)
Kirk WR34—the right pick? (age 27)
Jakobi WR52—too little? (age 27)
DDouglas WR69—PLUS Jakobi? (age 23)
ZayJones WR81—too little (age 29)
TBoyd WR83—too little (age 29)

[Menace2010]

Would you move Cousins for the 2.03 + any of these WRs?

Aiyuk WR12—probably too much (age 26)
Kirk WR34—the right pick? (age 27)
Jakobi WR52—too little? (age 27)
DDouglas WR69—PLUS Jakobi? (age 23)
ZayJones WR81—too little (age 29)
TBoyd WR83—too little (age 29)

I'd strongly consider Kirk and 2.03, I suppose. If I was dead set on moving Kirk now and not waiting until point scoring season. Aiyuk, obviously would be a smash, but zero % chance that happens. The rest. Meh. No thanks.

[wickerkat1212]

Would you move Cousins for the 2.03 + any of these WRs?

Aiyuk WR12—probably too much (age 26)
Kirk WR34—the right pick? (age 27)
Jakobi WR52—too little? (age 27)
DDouglas WR69—PLUS Jakobi? (age 23)
ZayJones WR81—too little (age 29)
TBoyd WR83—too little (age 29)

I'd strongly consider Kirk and 2.03, I suppose. If I was dead set on moving Kirk now and not waiting until point scoring season. Aiyuk, obviously would be a smash, but zero % chance that happens. The rest. Meh. No thanks.

Thanks.