Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed

[Ice]

Mingo my third rated wr in draft. Tillman fourth. Reed around 10th. I think Tillman and Mingo severely underrated.

And a 3rd rating might be too low.

Mingo has WR1 upside on his team quickly and should be a steady Fantasy starter for years.

I can definitely see Mingo's path to relevance. Out of the three players in the thread title, his potential to earn targets is -wide open- to become Bryce Young's number 1 guy (for 2023 at least).

However.



There are some pretty troubling metrics about his profile that I'll need some answers on before I fully start buying in like the "film experts" around here.

Pretty Sure Young will be exponentially better than the household name of Jaxson Dart. BTW, little known fact Ole Miss led the SEC in rushing last season. This is a running team.

2022 1st
2021 3rd
2020 3rd
2019 2nd

Time will tell no doubt but last year was his first year to play more than 8 games.

[Ice]

And a 3rd rating might be too low.

Mingo has WR1 upside on his team quickly and should be a steady Fantasy starter for years.

I can definitely see Mingo's path to relevance. Out of the three players in the thread title, his potential to earn targets is -wide open- to become Bryce Young's number 1 guy (for 2023 at least).

However.



There are some pretty troubling metrics about his profile that I'll need some answers on before I fully start buying in like the "film experts" around here.

You can explain with rose colored glasses.

He had to contend with Elijah Moore for his first 2 years. His 3rd year it looked like Mingo was set to break out, posting games of 55 yards, 99 yards, and then 136 yards in his first 3 games. He then broke his foot and tried to come back later in the season but his foot wasn't right. This wiped out essentially that entire season and he had to get it cleaned up in the offseason. His final season he didn't post gaudy stats but he did have a nearly 24% target share, which is around the 70th percentile (very high). I thought the college dominator might be an issue, but I checked all the receivers drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL draft that are taller than 6 feet, and college dominator doesn't seem to play any role in how successful they were. The lowest on the list (so between 25-30% college dominator) are Jerry Jeudy, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Tee Higgins and Justin Jefferson. College target share actually appears to be much more predictive (Kevin White and Breshad Perriman are at the bottom of that list), which Mingo has in spades.

If we do a simple search of players using common sense criteria, so 1st-2nd round draft capital, let's say 6'2" or taller, good size (210lbs+), fast (good weight-adjusted speed), and can jump out of the gym, we come up with this list of players. I'll sort by height.

6''5"
Mike evans

6'4"
Chase Claypool
Michael Pittman
Mike Williams
Tee Higgins
Devin Funchess

6'3"
Courtland Sutton
Michael Thomas
DK Metcalf
Julio Jones
Kevin White

6'2"
Jonathan Mingo
Treylon Burks
N'Keal Harry
Allen Robinson
Breshad Perriman

I colored the players red that have red flags (so low college target share and/or low college level of competition).

Now, Mingo's 6'2" group doesn't look so hot, however if you factor in the "red flags" of college level of competition and college target share, according to player profiler (idk how accurate these numbers are), N'Keal Harry and Treylon Burks level of competition are in the toilet, and Breshad Perriman's college target share is in the toilet. Mingo doesn't have any of those same concerns, and if you are wearing rose colored glasses, his only remaining true comp would be Allen Robinson.

I'll post the 6'1" receivers as well, although I will point out that I used the same criteria as above except I did not trim this group for size. All weights welcome in this group.

6'1"
Calvin Ridley
Laviska Shenault
Juju Smith-Schuster
Jerry Jeudy
Justin Jefferson
Jameson Williams
Amari Cooper
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
sammy Watkins

Very informative post.

[halfbaked88]

And a 3rd rating might be too low.

Mingo has WR1 upside on his team quickly and should be a steady Fantasy starter for years.

I can definitely see Mingo's path to relevance. Out of the three players in the thread title, his potential to earn targets is -wide open- to become Bryce Young's number 1 guy (for 2023 at least).

However.



There are some pretty troubling metrics about his profile that I'll need some answers on before I fully start buying in like the "film experts" around here.

You can explain with rose colored glasses.

He had to contend with Elijah Moore for his first 2 years. His 3rd year it looked like Mingo was set to break out, posting games of 55 yards, 99 yards, and then 136 yards in his first 3 games. He then broke his foot and tried to come back later in the season but his foot wasn't right. This wiped out essentially that entire season and he had to get it cleaned up in the offseason. His final season he didn't post gaudy stats but he did have a nearly 24% target share, which is around the 70th percentile (very high). I thought the college dominator might be an issue, but I checked all the receivers drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL draft that are taller than 6 feet, and college dominator doesn't seem to play any role in how successful they were. The lowest on the list (so between 25-30% college dominator) are Jerry Jeudy, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Tee Higgins and Justin Jefferson. College target share actually appears to be much more predictive (Kevin White and Breshad Perriman are at the bottom of that list), which Mingo has in spades.

If we do a simple search of players using common sense criteria, so 1st-2nd round draft capital, let's say 6'2" or taller, good size (210lbs+), fast (good weight-adjusted speed), and can jump out of the gym, we come up with this list of players. I'll sort by height.

6''5"
Mike evans

6'4"
Chase Claypool
Michael Pittman
Mike Williams
Tee Higgins
Devin Funchess

6'3"
Courtland Sutton
Michael Thomas
DK Metcalf
Julio Jones
Kevin White

6'2"
Jonathan Mingo
Treylon Burks
N'Keal Harry
Allen Robinson
Breshad Perriman

I colored the players red that have red flags (so low college target share and/or low college level of competition).

Now, Mingo's 6'2" group doesn't look so hot, however if you factor in the "red flags" of college level of competition and college target share, according to player profiler (idk how accurate these numbers are), N'Keal Harry and Treylon Burks level of competition are in the toilet, and Breshad Perriman's college target share is in the toilet. Mingo doesn't have any of those same concerns, and if you are wearing rose colored glasses, his only remaining true comp would be Allen Robinson.

I'll post the 6'1" receivers as well, although I will point out that I used the same criteria as above except I did not trim this group for size. All weights welcome in this group.

6'1"
Calvin Ridley
Laviska Shenault
Juju Smith-Schuster
Jerry Jeudy
Justin Jefferson
Jameson Williams
Amari Cooper
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
sammy Watkins

Technically, TECHNICALLY, Mingo is not quite 6'2", he's 6'1 3/4. So... rose colored glasses?

Early breakout age should be one of the common sense criterias set in WR scouting. Being held down by Elijah Moore your first 2 years isn't forgivable. Coming into the NFL as a late declare, your only productive season as a senior, and more excuses through injury, having to playing TE, etc etc

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

[Jigga94]

Solid post DD. I also tend to give prospects some leeway when they were behind another 2nd round WR and then broke their foot in their breakout year. Mingo is one of the late declares where, yes he needed the final season of production as a senior to get drafted this highly, but had he stayed healthy his junior year, I think we would have seen similar draft capital.

Hard to say for sure, but I don't consider them red flags. At least not for a guy that's getting drafted in the round 2. If you want to talk about red flags, Tillmans production profile worries me the most of these 3. I like his film and have had him fairly high in my ranks, but he wasn't even a starter until his 4th year.

[Sriracha]

Early breakout age should be one of the common sense criterias set in WR scouting. Being held down by Elijah Moore your first 2 years isn't forgivable. Coming into the NFL as a late declare, your only productive season as a senior, and more excuses through injury, having to playing TE, etc etc

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

His production is an obvious red flag in his profile.. especially when you consider that he was not only out produced by Elijah Moore, but also by Dontario Drummond (2021) and Malik Heath (2022); However it's hard not to see the upside he possesses and with the draft capital invested in him you have to believe the Panthers believe he can shore up his issues in the NFL.

I don't have a strong opinion about him one way or another but I'll grab some pieces of him in the event that he can put it all together.

[Bronco Billy]

Bad form in quoting myself, but this is from an earlier thread about Mingo:

Not a fan of his game at all.

Great athlete. 114.2 speed score and 9.84 RAS. Great size/weight ratio at 6’-1” and 228 lbs. Very soft hands. Reliable catcher and catches away from his body. Can corral off target throws.

Measureable speed does not show up in pads. Plays much slower than track speed. Poor route running. Fails to sink hips and lower his center of mass. Rounds off routes, does not do much DB manipulation. Not physical at all. Plays smaller than his size. Tries to run through smaller DBs unsuccessfully. Not great in space - chooses straight line paths rather than finding open seams to extend plays after the catch and will run OB instead of cutting in to add YAC. Was played out of the slot a lot, which I’m guessing is due to the coaching staff recognizing his lack of physicality.

This guy’s size/measureables are going to sucker a lot of people into drafting him too early.

[Cameron Giles]

[
Early breakout age should be one of the common sense criterias set in WR scouting. Being held down by Elijah Moore your first 2 years isn't forgivable. Coming into the NFL as a late declare, your only productive season as a senior, and more excuses through injury, having to playing TE, etc etc

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

What if I told you, there's a player on this poll with a 98th percentile breakout with the same draft pedigree as Mingo and better college production?

[halfbaked88]

[
Early breakout age should be one of the common sense criterias set in WR scouting. Being held down by Elijah Moore your first 2 years isn't forgivable. Coming into the NFL as a late declare, your only productive season as a senior, and more excuses through injury, having to playing TE, etc etc

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

What if I told you, there's a player on this poll with a 98th percentile breakout with the same draft pedigree as Mingo and better college production?

I would say let's see the other parts of his profile

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

I said I was the one wearing them, i.e. I would be viewing all of Mingo's perceived negatives in a more positive light in my response. I thought that was obvious, as I said it several times........................

Anyway, to respond to the "early declare" or "Breakout age" thing, I've outlined in the past that while I DO believe that, on average, early declare and early breakout are better, they are not magical end-all be-all numbers. The rest of a players profile matters. The only person who sucked on that list that was not an early declare was Kevin White as far as I can tell. Still have to see on Claypool. Michael Thomas was in college for 4 years (but I know, was still an early declare), Sutton also played for 4 years (yet was somehow still an early declare also, i get it), but Pittman was not an early declare. Shenault stinks and was an early-declare. So you have some non-early declares stinking, but also some early-declares stinking as well, such as Funchess, N'Keal Harry, etc.

Mingo's breakout age of 20.4 is comparable to Sutton (19.9), Mike Williams (19.9), Perriman (20.0), Burks (20.5), Pittman (20.9). If you draft a receiver and they turn into Sutton, Mike Williams or Pittman, for as disappointing they've been at times, most people would consider that a win. Mingo's breakout age was significantly earlier than Michael Thomas (21.5), Claypool (21.2), Kevin White (21.2).

If you want to factor in breakout age and early-declare status, then the best comp for Mingo would be Michael Pittman, who had a similar breakout age and also was a non-early declare. Pittman received similar draft capital to Mingo. Like Mingo, Pittman was also dismissed throughout the dynasty rookie draft process because he didn't stand out on film the way people wanted, was a non-early declare, and had a "later" breakout age.

[halfbaked88]

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

I said I was the one wearing them, i.e. I would be viewing all of Mingo's perceived negatives in a more positive light in my response. I thought that was obvious, as I said it several times........................

Not a great position to be arguing from. From the poll it seems majority of people are highly favorable to Mingo vs Tillman & Reed where I see them all in the same tier. If you're doing it for fun, arguing for a player you don't truly believe in - in a devil's advocate way, OK? I think that's a little odd. I'm careful of leading people to overdraft rookies I'm not confident in.

The more I think about it I think he's being pushed up purely by physical traits in a position where, next to QB, their physical traits matter the least. What matters to me in WRs is college production. Even in his most productive season; 51 catches, 861yds 5TDs... as a Senior. With little team target competition.

On the surface, being Carolina, new coaching regime, new 1.01 overall QB, weak WR room, no big body WR, 1st year new offense TE, the need to provide Bryce Young with "something" as a weapon and set him up for success.. this just feels like a reach. A team fit fill-in based on circumstance. The 2.08 draft capital seems artificial. When I adjust for that fact Mingo becomes just as much a dart throw as any of the other WRs listed.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Who is wearing rose colored glasses here? Frankly, I don't see how Mingo isn't showing up as an obvious red flag.

I said I was the one wearing them, i.e. I would be viewing all of Mingo's perceived negatives in a more positive light in my response. I thought that was obvious, as I said it several times........................

Not a great position to be arguing from. From the poll it seems majority of people are highly favorable to Mingo vs Tillman & Reed where I see them all in the same tier. If you're doing it for fun, arguing for a player you don't truly believe in - in a devil's advocate way, OK? I think that's a little odd. I'm careful of leading people to overdraft rookies I'm not confident in.

You're making it more complicated than it has to be. I like Mingo, but I also understand all the negatives and I do think they are negatives. However, if you (or me) are trying to be as optimistic as possible, you can attempt to dismiss many or all of those negatives in the manner that I just described. Also, those negatives are already baked into his rookie draft spot. If he was an early-declare and had all the bells and whistles that people like, he would be going mid-1st and not mid-2nd. I readily admit he has negatives and that they are negatives, but I also contend that the negatives are baked into his price already. What you're not doing is admitting that his comps, as I outlined in my previous posts, are pretty good, and that the hit rate for players like him, even with all the negatives, is still pretty good and better than you think. He's not the "dart throw" you seem to think he is.

[halfbaked88]

I said I was the one wearing them, i.e. I would be viewing all of Mingo's perceived negatives in a more positive light in my response. I thought that was obvious, as I said it several times........................

Not a great position to be arguing from. From the poll it seems majority of people are highly favorable to Mingo vs Tillman & Reed where I see them all in the same tier. If you're doing it for fun, arguing for a player you don't truly believe in - in a devil's advocate way, OK? I think that's a little odd. I'm careful of leading people to overdraft rookies I'm not confident in.

You're making it more complicated than it has to be. I like Mingo, but I also understand all the negatives and I do think they are negatives. However, if you (or me) are trying to be as optimistic as possible, you can attempt to dismiss many or all of those negatives in the manner that I just described. Also, those negatives are already baked into his rookie draft spot. If he was an early-declare and had all the bells and whistles that people like, he would be going mid-1st and not mid-2nd. I readily admit he has negatives and that they are negatives, but I also contend that the negatives are baked into his price already. What you're not doing is admitting that his comps, as I outlined in my previous posts, are pretty good, and that the hit rate for players like him, even with all the negatives, is still pretty good and better than you think. He's not the "dart throw" you seem to think he is.

Your comps list isn't what it seems to be. It's formulated to fit a narrative. Just by glancing at the Top 36WRs in dynasty who actually comps to Mingo purely on size? AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and? Treylon Burks? Their profiles were extremely better. And why did you set the lbs at 210 when Mingo is 225+. That's a big difference. The big-body WR does not profile well in today's NFL.

When you start factoring in things that actually matter to WRs, like early declare, production, team competition aka their actual college profile and then make a comps list you'll find Mingo ain't anywhere close to being on it with the guys you listed.

[Bronco Billy]

This is going to be an interesting ongoing battle about Mingo. He’s the type of WR who is likely to look great during OTAs/TC/PS where contact is so limited and he’ll get plenty of reps against weaker DBs his advocates are going to proclaim victory, and then when the regular season comes if he plays as soft, small and sloppy as he did in college his production is going to be awful. We see this happen every year with some WRs.

[Cameron Giles]

Jonathan Mingo
6'1
226 lbs
4.46 40YD
69th Percentle Target Share
20.4 BOA
16.3 YPR
10 3/8 hand size
39 1/2 Vert
129' Broad Jump
Late Declare - 2nd round

Treylon Burks
6'2
224 lbs
4.55 40YD
93rd Percentile Target Share
20.5 BOA
16.8 YPR
9 7/8 hand size
33 Vert
122' Broad Jump
Early Declare - 1st Round

Interesting at least. Mingo's a good football player, though I don't know how high his fantasy upside actually is. He doesn't strike me as a WR1 or even WR2 type of ability, but he does have desireable skills (YAC, blocking, competent in routes, versatility) for an NFL offense and he flat out competes and works hard. His route profile is very intriguing as well and is a really good fit for a rookie QB to develop with.

[halfbaked88]

Jonathan Mingo
6'1
226 lbs
4.46 40YD
69th Percentle Target Share
20.4 BOA
16.3 YPR
10 3/8 hand size
39 1/2 Vert
129' Broad Jump
Late Declare - 2nd round

Treylon Burks
6'2
224 lbs
4.55 40YD
93rd Percentile Target Share
20.5 BOA
16.8 YPR
9 7/8 hand size
33 Vert
122' Broad Jump
Early Declare - 1st Round

Interesting at least. Mingo's a good football player, though I don't know how high his fantasy upside actually is. He doesn't strike me as a WR1 or even WR2 type of ability, but he does have desireable skills (YAC, blocking, competent in routes, versatility) for an NFL offense and he flat out competes and works hard. His route profile is very intriguing as well and is a really good fit for a rookie QB to develop with.

Jonathan Mingo
FR - 12-172-1td, 7GMs
SO - 27-379-3td, 8 GMs
JR - 22-346-3td, 6 GMs
SR - 51-861-5td, 13GMs

Treylon Burks
FR - 29-475-0tds, 11GMs
SO - 51-820-7tds, 9GMs
JR - 66-1104-11tds, 12GMs
SR - 1st round NFL WR

Treylon Burks as a *Sophomore* was out producing Mingo as a Senior and doing it in fewer games.

A.J. Brown was putting up monstrous seasons his 2nd and 3rd years at Ole Miss.

D.K. not so much but he is somewhat of an outlier based on the production profile.

I've never thought of it in until now, but AJB and DK coming out of the same college as Mingo; is he now subconsciously getting the "Ole Miss" bump?

I'll keep saying it, athletics and physical measurables are one of the last things we should be looking for in a WR.

College production is the #1 indicator of NFL success for WRs. There are so many ways to win at the position that physical attributes just don't mean a lot anymore.

Wasn't Mingo this athletic freak in college too? Where were the production numbers then? And why would it change now? If he lacked technique against college DBs where is this upside in the NFL coming from?