2011 Rookie Mock Draft 2.0

[skip]

4 rounds sounds good. Anyone find any of the picks strange yet?

Cam Newton at 1.08
Kyle Rudolph in the early 2nd

[cleanwillyb]

4 rounds sounds good. Anyone find any of the picks strange yet?

Cam Newton at 1.08...

Really? The past two years that has been about where Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford have went in my league, 1.10ish...

[cleanwillyb]

I think Kaepernick being the third QB taken is a little strange.

[skip]

4 rounds sounds good. Anyone find any of the picks strange yet?

Cam Newton at 1.08...

Really? The past two years that has been about where Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford have went in my league, 1.10ish...

The difference being some people believed Stafford was a franchise-level QB. Same with Bradford (even more so). Newton isn't carrying nearly that kind of sentiment, nor is anyone in this class.

I suspect mocks will change a lot post-draft. I have a feeling we will see only 1 QB drafted in the top 10.

[MikeCross]

4 rounds sounds good. Anyone find any of the picks strange yet?

Cam Newton at 1.08...

Really? The past two years that has been about where Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford have went in my league, 1.10ish...

Newton has no where near the pedigree, or exp, that Stafford and Bradford had coming out. Mallet and Gabbert have a better chance of being a Franchise QB than Newton.

[cleanwillyb]

...Mallet and Gabbert have a better chance of being a Franchise QB than Newton.

Maybe Gabbart, but the folks whose jobs are on the line in making draft recommendations seem to agree that Gabbart and Newton are head and shoulders above the rest in terms of prospects. For reference see the annual Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel poll of NFL scouts.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/120328204.html

As a more general question, if the number one overall player is QB/RB/WR, what is the farthest you could see them dropping in a rookie draft?

[cleanwillyb]

To make it easy for folks, the article I referenced of 24 NFL scouts ranked the QB prospects this way, where the term in parentheses is the overall points based on first place votes, second place votes, etc.

Blaine Gabbart (105)
Cam Newton (100)
Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett (43)
Christian Ponder (37)
Andy Dalton (15)
Colin Kaepernick (11)
Ricky Stanzi (7)

[Madtoker]

3.1 Bilal Powell RB Louisville

[skip]

As a more general question, if the number one overall player is QB/RB/WR, what is the farthest you could see them dropping in a rookie draft?

Even with Stafford's projection as a franchise QB, he wasn't drafted until 2.1 in our rookie draft.

There can be a number of factors for something like this. Just like in the NFL which doesn't tend to draft a lot of 1st rd RBs, WRs, even QBs...fantasy owners seem to trend away from both QBs and TEs early in a draft. Some will also draft based on need, roster limitations, etc.

[tstafford]

4 rounds sounds good. Anyone find any of the picks strange yet?

FWIW - Was avoiding making comments, didn't want to interrupt the flow. Glad the floodgate has opened.

Newton seems like a reach at 1.08. Even if my team needed a QB desperately I wouldn't use the 1.08 that way. Call me crazy, but it would almost seem certain that you could trade the pick straight up for an established QB in a 12-team, 1 QB league. Example: Kolb went for the 1.06 in my league last year.

Cobb ahead of Baldwin. I can't get my arms around what to think about Cobb from a fantasy perspective. My gut tells me he will be a great contributor to his NFL team but that doesn't always mean good fantasy numbers. Baldwin seems like the prototypical WR with boom/bust potential.

Rudolph. I saw Skip mentioned this seemed early for K. Rudolph. Personally, I think it's very, very hard to predict his value until after the NFL draft so I'd give a bit of a pass on this selection. Example - if he goes to Atlanta I think his fantasy value is quite high, Denver then not so much. I think more so than at any position the nature of the offense really impacts the value of a TE. Of course the other players, situation, quality of the QB, etc. affect WRs/RBs. But TEs can get really devalued if they end up in the wrong offensive scheme for fantasy - we don't get points for blocking.

[skip]

Rudolph. I saw Skip mentioned this seemed early for K. Rudolph. Personally, I think it's very, very hard to predict his value until after the NFL draft so I'd give a bit of a pass on this selection. Example - if he goes to Atlanta I think his fantasy value is quite high, Denver then not so much. I think more so than at any position the nature of the offense really impacts the value of a TE. Of course the other players, situation, quality of the QB, etc. affect WRs/RBs. But TEs can get really devalued if they end up in the wrong offensive scheme for fantasy - we don't get points for blocking.

The reason I mention Rudolph being so early is relative to the talent at TE which has come out in recent years I don't believe Rudolph compares well to any of them. With the depth in this draft at RB, WR, and QB in this class coupled with the depth at TE already in the NFL, I am not anticipating Rudolph being drafted before the 3rd round regardless of where he is drafted.

[tstafford]

Rudolph. I saw Skip mentioned this seemed early for K. Rudolph. Personally, I think it's very, very hard to predict his value until after the NFL draft so I'd give a bit of a pass on this selection. Example - if he goes to Atlanta I think his fantasy value is quite high, Denver then not so much. I think more so than at any position the nature of the offense really impacts the value of a TE. Of course the other players, situation, quality of the QB, etc. affect WRs/RBs. But TEs can get really devalued if they end up in the wrong offensive scheme for fantasy - we don't get points for blocking.

The reason I mention Rudolph being so early is relative to the talent at TE which has come out in recent years I don't believe Rudolph compares well to any of them. With the depth in this draft at RB, WR, and QB in this class coupled with the depth at TE already in the NFL, I am not anticipating Rudolph being drafted before the 3rd round regardless of where he is drafted.

You may be right. If he goes to the right spot, I bet he is off the board in many leagues somewhere in the second. I think it's possible that he's a first round NFL pick because of the scarcity at the position in this rookie class and I believe that will be enough to get some owners to reach for him.

[Madtoker]

Steelersfan you are up!

[brice587]

It seems like the QBs always seem to go higher in these pre-NFL draft mocks than they actually end up going in real rookie drafts later.

[cleanwillyb]

...Even with Stafford's projection as a franchise QB, he wasn't drafted until 2.1 in our rookie draft...

Out of curiosity, can you list how your first round went? If you have the ability to look up that information that is.

Was Brian Robiskie taken before him?