Trade for njoku?

[BigBawseRoss]

If you want honesty, engram might see a regression here too. He had great numbers last year because he was pretty much the only guy there. Now OBJ is back, Shephard is back, Barkley is there.

It's more that I watched Njoku last year, and I've watched Ebron, and they don't look very good to me. Things can change, I know, especially when Njoku is still 22, but I saw nothing to increase his value.

this is a false narrative that has been debunked on this forum probably 10,000 times (i am exaggerating obviously)

Debunked how? OBJ there will eat into Engram's targets. No?

debunked with stats that tell the real story. engram didnt see his looks go up at all with beckham out.

[bjd5211]

I think Ebron is being overblown how "bad" he is. Not saying he's not been disappointing, but that was almost inevitable as a TE drafted in the top 10. He's still only 25 years old, TEs typically take longer to develop and he was very raw. His stats have actually been decent, but because he's not putting up Gronk numbers he's a considered a failure due to his enormous draft investment. I think he's a serious breakout candidate this year and great buy low option.

bro, he has been that for the past however many years lol. there hasnt bee a season since he was drafted where he wasnt a great buy low and a serious breakout candidate. seriously

Sure, but he's coming to the stage in his career where TE's typically start to perform at their best. He's in a new offense with a team and QB that has traditionally done very well with TEs. Plus like I stated previously I don't think he's been as bad as he's made out to be, he just hasn't lived up to the incredibly high expectations for a TE drafted as highly as he was.

I'm not saying he's going to be Gronk, but he certainly is very much still worth the shot and has the skillset and an opportunity to become a quality starting TE.

[jcc6fd]

He was not a 1st round pick last year. He was an early to mid 2nd round pick and didn't do anything to improve his value. Now his situation gets more murky because Cleveland has added (regained) more proven pass catchers.

I think he meant NFL draft, where he was pick 29. But I agree, he didn't do anything to hurt his value, but also didn't do anything to improve it

No I meant fantasy rookie drafts, he was a 1st round pick in every draft I was a part of, and the vast majority that I saw, bare minimum top 3 pick in the second round. Now he is the #5 TE in startup ADP, was #6 before the Henry injury. So he is absolutely worth a future 1st in value, but it makes little sense to turn around and trade a 22 year old that is still developing, and a couple of years away from his full potential, for a lateral move in draft value. I wouldn't trade Njoku for any less than 1.07 straight up in this years rookie draft.

I'll dispute your claims regarding last year's rookie drafts. You must have just been a part of a bunch that valued Njoku.

However, I was surprised to see he is in fact the TE5 on Mizelle's ADP utility currently. In some ways it's ridiculous (he's ahead of Rudolph), but in other ways it just speaks to how in flux the position is. Perineal stalwarts like Olsen and Graham are now old and have lost value. There aren't any reliable elite options other than Kelce, Ertz and Gronk, and even Gronk is the subject of credible retirement rumors.

Bottom line though, I don't think his status as the TE5 makes him definitely worth a future first. Trey Burton is the TE6. People are desperate to find the next TE1 and the reality is even the TE5-10 in scoring in 2018 will likely be very pedestrian compared to the top 3-4 and may have a ton of variability in their week-to-week scoring. When Njoku experiences more growing pains as a still fairly raw prospect, his value will drop accordingly and those who paid a 2019 first will regret it.

[btv802]

I'll dispute your claims regarding last year's rookie drafts. You must have just been a part of a bunch that valued Njoku.

I know ADP isn't real life, but I did I just show you how for an entire offseason he averaged out to be the 1.12 in ADP. At the very least we know DLF mock drafters valued him as a late 1st.

However, I was surprised to see he is in fact the TE5 on Mizelle's ADP utility currently. In some ways it's ridiculous (he's ahead of Rudolph), but in other ways it just speaks to how in flux the position is. Perineal stalwarts like Olsen and Graham are now old and have lost value. There aren't any reliable elite options other than Kelce, Ertz and Gronk, and even Gronk is the subject of credible retirement rumors.

I kinda agree with you here. TE is a really tough position and young guys are probably overvalued due to positional scarcity. However I still want to own guys like Njoku, Engram & Howard in case any of them do enter the elite tier of TE fantasy scorers. That's a huge advantage to have a guy scoring like a WR1/WR2 at the tight end position.

Bottom line though, I don't think his status as the TE5 makes him definitely worth a future first. Trey Burton is the TE6. People are desperate to find the next TE1 and the reality is even the TE5-10 in scoring in 2018 will likely be very pedestrian compared to the top 3-4 and may have a ton of variability in their week-to-week scoring. When Njoku experiences more growing pains as a still fairly raw prospect, his value will drop accordingly and those who paid a 2019 first will regret it.

His price will likely drop but smart owners won't sell because they expect it to take time and the upside of a prospect like Njoku is so much higher than the upside of a random future 2nd/3rd.

[jcc6fd]

I know ADP isn't real life, but I did I just show you how for an entire offseason he averaged out to be the 1.12 in ADP. At the very least we know DLF mock drafters valued him as a late 1st.

I think we have to agree to disagree. I was very much in tune with Mizelle's ADP utility throughout the 2017 offsesason and Njoku was never considered in the top 12 picks. I'm sure there are other resources that say differently, but even then his draft status as a fringe round 1 pick is not the main thrust of my valuation argument.

I kinda agree with you here. TE is a really tough position and young guys are probably overvalued due to positional scarcity. However I still want to own guys like Njoku, Engram & Howard in case any of them do enter the elite tier of TE fantasy scorers. That's a huge advantage to have a guy scoring like a WR1/WR2 at the tight end position.

I'd like to own those guys too. Outside of Engram we don't know if they're capable of being TE1's and history tells us it takes a while for them to develop, especially with known projects like Njoku. There's merit to buying and holding, but that strategy only seems wise to me if you're buying for a value that reflects that you will need to be patient. A future first would be an overpay coming from this mindset.

His price will likely drop but smart owners won't sell because they expect it to take time and the upside of a prospect like Njoku is so much higher than the upside of a random future 2nd/3rd.

That's my point. His price will likely drop, so if it will drop try to buy then, not now. If you're saying you have to buy now because all of the smart owners won't sell when his price drops, then you'll theoretically still be able to buy for a late first a year from now and you won't have to sit him on your roster for another year of development.

My whole point goes to crap if you think he'll be a TE1 this year. If he is then I'm delivering bad advice. I just don't see it happening.

[hudini33]

I'll agree that his upside is worth more than a random future 2nd, but I'm not going to pay a future 1st, or 2018 2nd for him. I think Gesicki, Goedert and Hurst are all better Prospects than Njoku, but that's just my opinion.

[A-train]

I tried trading for Njoku in my league. The owner wanted Watkins, Ebron, and Saints D for him and Cardinals D. If that's seriously how most people are valuing him I'll pass.

[hudini33]

I tried trading for Njoku in my league. The owner wanted Watkins, Ebron, and Saints D for him and Cardinals D. If that's seriously how most people are valuing him I'll pass.

That's ridiculous.

[Cowboysfan33]

I do agree with jcc6fd about the TE position being in flux. That’s one reason that I’ve taken Njoku in some startups this offseason. If you don’t take Kelce, Gronk, Ertz or Engram, he’s in that next group, of course, I’m saying after Henry was lost for the season. I’ve taken Njoku in a couple startups then D.Walker several rounds later, that way I’m not really counting on Njoku this season, also, traded for Gronk in one league that I have Njoku. I’m holding him everywhere that I own him though, no reason to sell right now, he just turned 22 and has loads of potential and has a potentially really good QB in Mayfield to grow with, I’m still really excited about him.

[Ice]

TE's take a while to develop. You might be able to get him for a first but depending on where that pick is projected it may be tough. He has plenty of potential to be a stud in a year or two.

[Goddard]

I don't think your team is ready to compete, so I'd try to move Fitz for him. However, the Njoku owner would have to be competitive in order for him to accept this.

[hankmurphy]

Perineal stalwarts

gross

[btv802]

I think Gesicki, Goedert and Hurst are all better Prospects than Njoku, but that's just my opinion.

Gesicki and Goedert are undoubtedly great "pass catching" or "move tight end" prospects but I generally see scouting reports that indicate they are not competitive blockers. They fit into the Evan Engram & Jordan Reed archetype which is generally not what I'm targeting. I would guess this is the primary reason they weren't selected in the 1st round.

Howard & Njoku came out as prospects that were considered plus blockers in addition to their ability to contribute in the passing game. This is the Gronkowski & Ertz archetype and that's what I'm really looking for in a dynasty tight end. I ideally want guys that I'm sure will be on the field on all downs and situations because they don't telegraph the type of play that is about to be run because their teams trust them to block effectively in the run game. I ideally want the tight ends that will be guaranteed to be out on the field in goal line situations no matter what.

Hayden Hurst is supposed to be a quality all around talent who may turn out well but the guy is also a 25 year old rookie so he better be ready to play right away. He is the guy you want to be worried about if he doesn't show up early in his career, not Njoku

[Faelriden]

Got Anthony Miller and ASJ for him a few weeks ago. Don't think that would have gone through today, now that Miller is being hyped so much. The guy took Miller with 2.1, so I would say we both valued him as more than just a 2nd.

[hudini33]

I officially retract my statement about Njoku