How far down the rabbit hole? QB debate in SF leagues

[MacDaddy123]

Bryce Young would have been my choice.

It didn't work out for you for a lot of reasons, taking QB's early wasn't the "reason." There are a thousand ways to blow a draft or nail a draft and there is no right answer, but there is also no wrong way. Your picks just have to work

Exactly!! Everyone just has to stay healthy and perform up to expectations, and I will be fine.
Luck is the most important thing in fantasy football.

I got Bryce young at the 5.06, so now I have a QB.
Team so far through 5 rounds:

QB: Bryce Young
RB: Travis Etienne
RB:
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Drake London
TE: Sam LaPorta (1.0 TEP)
Flex:
Flex:
Flex:
SFlex:

No, luck is not the most important. It's the second most important. The most important thing is skill. This is the same with most "gambling". The lottery, that luck. Poker, dfs, fantasy football, those are game of skill that have varying degrees of luck included. Games like chess or go, those are games entirely of skill.

Agree to disagree.

[abloom]

I mean you said it yourself "Stafford/Goff, Baker/R. Wilson/Levis". Just don't pass up on 2-3 of those guys and you're all set. If you don't get atleast 2 of those guys it's going to be harder for you.

I'll also point out that not all SF leagues are the same. Scoring the starter requirements can change a lot.

Finally the key to a compete now team is to really pound the RB and vet groups. They are cheaper due to lack of years and provide more scoring than equally valued younger players.

In a 14 team SF (my preferred format) I like to pound QB and wr early and often in startups (I also prefer auction startups over snake drafts).

I think JJ over burrow is fine. Definitely would have taken tua and Dak over laporta though and London.

I'm also confused about your saquon comment. If you are bypassing the younger more talented QBs for older ones, why are you not in win now mode? If you are trying to build a long term contender then why are you opposed to going Bryce over ETN?

I think you need to reassess your consistency here.

Those were QB's on championship teams in my leagues. I never said they were my QB targets.
Looking at my team through 5 rounds now, I would not say I was a win now team: Jefferson, LaPorta, London, Etienne, Bryce Young.

I was opposed to Bryce over ETN purely on a value POV. 4.09 was not time for Bryce, he made it back to me at 5.06 and I took Bryce.
I realize how much the community is down on Bryce, and I am taking advantage of the situation.

That is the 3rd cheap Bryce share that I have picked up this off-season.
Last off-season Kyler was my buy low.

I agree, but you drafted ETN fairly early. His value has been established by your league mates. You should be trying to stay consistent to maximize your team value. I like acquiring Bryce for cheap now. He's basically like a poorer version of Mayfield when he came out. And he'll getore chances.

I also don't think you took Bryce at a bargain I think you took him where he's valued.

[abloom]

Exactly!! Everyone just has to stay healthy and perform up to expectations, and I will be fine.
Luck is the most important thing in fantasy football.

I got Bryce young at the 5.06, so now I have a QB.
Team so far through 5 rounds:

QB: Bryce Young
RB: Travis Etienne
RB:
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Drake London
TE: Sam LaPorta (1.0 TEP)
Flex:
Flex:
Flex:
SFlex:

No, luck is not the most important. It's the second most important. The most important thing is skill. This is the same with most "gambling". The lottery, that luck. Poker, dfs, fantasy football, those are game of skill that have varying degrees of luck included. Games like chess or go, those are games entirely of skill.

Agree to disagree.

By all means feel free it just makes it easier for me to win.

[MacDaddy123]

No, luck is not the most important. It's the second most important. The most important thing is skill. This is the same with most "gambling". The lottery, that luck. Poker, dfs, fantasy football, those are game of skill that have varying degrees of luck included. Games like chess or go, those are games entirely of skill.

Agree to disagree.

By all means feel free it just makes it easier for me to win.

You must be a lucky man!! Congrats!!!

I can't win no matter what I do.
I can't tell you how many times I've finished regular season in 1st place, yet lose to some 5th place team in the Finals.
Not a single top NFL superstar who hasn't crapped the bed on me in the playoffs.

Am I a bad manager because I played Nick Chubb over Daryl Williams in the Championship game, lost by 0.7 points because Chubb got bruised ribs in the 1st quarter and only scored 5.8 points, while Daryl Williams put up 22+ points on my bench?
Lost another championship game on a 1st quarter concussion to Kamara.

That has been repeated on me dozens of times, by nearly every NFL star.
Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, JT, CMC, Kelce, Mahomes, Josh Allen, JJ, doesn't matter, they have all failed me in crunch time.

So excuse me if I think I just have bad luck.
If I knew more about the game, I'd bench Tyreek, Kelce, Chubb, Kamara for the schlep on my bench who is gonna go off.
I'd know they were going to get injured and/or suck in fantasy playoff games.

Problem is, when I try to outsmart my bad luck, and bench my star for a schlep, that doesn't work either.
I have even tried the reverse curse, didn't work.

What's left? Enlighten me please?
How do you know when your star will get a 1st quarter injury?
What great strategical move do you make then?
Maybe I could win if I knew just who was gonna get injured early or lay an egg.

[Anteaters]

What's left? Enlighten me please?

Process. That's what's left. Draft smart. Trade smart. Put together the best possible team and start your best players.

Those teams that won with Baker+Geno did not plan on starting those guys when they drafted them two years ago. They were fliers, bench players, maybe hopeful backups.

It's like playing zero-RB and winning with Cordorelle+Penny, when Penny closed out '21 on a hot streak. But I bet those guys that won with Baker last year or Penny in '21 had very good rosters around them.

Luck happens when opportunity meets preparation. Prepare by assembling the best possible roster. Prepare by using logic to pick up some fliers. Then, when one of your fliers gets hot at the right moment, seize the opportunity and win. No, it doesn't always work. But you have to keep applying the right process. Fantasy teams flounder when managers get frustrated and start employing different processes every two years because they did not get the quick fix they were hoping for.

The fact that you're going into the playoffs as the #1 or #2 seed is proof you're doing this right. Yes, losing so frequently lately is bad luck.

Assuming you have a good process, stick with it. And rostering two strong QBs in SF is good process.

[abloom]

Agree to disagree.

By all means feel free it just makes it easier for me to win.

You must be a lucky man!! Congrats!!!

I can't win no matter what I do.
I can't tell you how many times I've finished regular season in 1st place, yet lose to some 5th place team in the Finals.
Not a single top NFL superstar who hasn't crapped the bed on me in the playoffs.

Am I a bad manager because I played Nick Chubb over Daryl Williams in the Championship game, lost by 0.7 points because Chubb got bruised ribs in the 1st quarter and only scored 5.8 points, while Daryl Williams put up 22+ points on my bench?
Lost another championship game on a 1st quarter concussion to Kamara.

That has been repeated on me dozens of times, by nearly every NFL star.
Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, JT, CMC, Kelce, Mahomes, Josh Allen, JJ, doesn't matter, they have all failed me in crunch time.

So excuse me if I think I just have bad luck.
If I knew more about the game, I'd bench Tyreek, Kelce, Chubb, Kamara for the schlep on my bench who is gonna go off.
I'd know they were going to get injured and/or suck in fantasy playoff games.

Problem is, when I try to outsmart my bad luck, and bench my star for a schlep, that doesn't work either.
I have even tried the reverse curse, didn't work.

What's left? Enlighten me please?
How do you know when your star will get a 1st quarter injury?
What great strategical move do you make then?
Maybe I could win if I knew just who was gonna get injured early or lay an egg.

I'm not lucky, I put myself in position to win by my team building. The larger your sample the less randomness (luck) influences the results. Making the playoffs involves more skill than winning a playoff matchup. Notice how I never said that luck wasn't involved. I said that skill matters more than luck and to varying degrees depending on the amount of variance expected.