Jefferson or the Rooks
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
This is philosophical for me. On paper the trade is fair. Boils down to risk/reward. The two rookies absolutely have the potential to boom and make this a fantastic trade. They could be great WR's and the trade is a wash. Or one or both could disappoint and you lose the trade. What is your level of risk taking? For me I can't see liking the results of the trade unless both WR are hits. I would rather hold the HR then gamble on that. JJ has proved he is pretty QB proof
I am just a guy sharing some thoughts
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
I came here to say "you don't trade Jefferson for uncertainty" but now that I see it's MHJ & Nabers I want the uncertainty.
Last edited by pmart33 on Fri Mar 29, 2024 12:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
Agree with all of this.murphysxm wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2024 6:17 am This is philosophical for me. On paper the trade is fair. Boils down to risk/reward. The two rookies absolutely have the potential to boom and make this a fantastic trade. They could be great WR's and the trade is a wash. Or one or both could disappoint and you lose the trade. What is your level of risk taking? For me I can't see liking the results of the trade unless both WR are hits. I would rather hold the HR then gamble on that. JJ has proved he is pretty QB proof
The problem is "hit" can mean different things. This might be a somewhat arbitrary exercise, but in an effort to make it not so black and white (bust vs. hit), let's say MHJ and Nabers have similar early career arcs of....Brandon Aiyuk and DJ Moore (for example). These are 1st round WRs with some elite traits that are highly valued in dynasty. It took DJM until YR6 to have a WR1 season (ppg), and Aiyuk has yet to do it.
So even if you hit on both, it could A) take a long time to pay off and B) look a lot different in your lineup than the ridiculous 20(+) ppg that JJ averages (and as Murph mentioned, is QB-proof).
I think you would need one to be a perennial WR1 and the other to be a perennial WR2 out of the gates in order for it to be worth it and while I don't think that's out of the question (because they really are great prospects), it's a pretty high bar because there are so many factors outside of talent.
There are a bunch of RD1 hits you could do this exercise with - Wilson, Olave, London, Smith, Waddle, Jeudy, etc. None of them (aside from Chase) have had the difference-making ability that JJ has. Now if the argument is that none of these players are the level of prospect that MHJ and Nabers are, then it's a fine bet to make...but there's a great deal of risk when the wager is JJ
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Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
The safe pick would be Jefferson and he is still young (24yrs) however who will be the Vikings QB long term and can JJ be able to produce at a high level with whoever that maybe. 2. when is this trade being made? before or after the NFL draft and what are the landing spots of the 2 Rooks and what does their situation look like. Ultimately I don't think you can go wrong with either choice and it comes down to do you want to go with the safe choice or the one that won't necessarily burn you but does have some risk. If you have a firm belief that one of the Rooks will be better than JJ I would advice you go that route. Back in 2020 I was offered DK Metcalf for my 1.05 in that years rookie draft. I was huge fan of CeeDee Lamb and was picking him every chance I could but in this league with the 1.05 I didn't believe he would be available at the 1.05 and made the trade. Today I wish I would have kept the pick but at least DK has not been bad just not as good as CD. Ultimately I don't think you can go wrong with either choice but I would go with your gut feeling and who you want especially if this is a rebuild or your WR room is thin.
Team 12 PPR
Team 1
QB P Mahomes D Jones Howell
RB A Jones M Sanders B Robinson K Miller
WR A.J Brown CD Lamb G Wilson M Pittman G Davis D Hopkins C Sutton
D Mooney J Myers
TE Freiermuth Meyer Chig
Team 2
QB Mahomes Tua
RB Montgomery Hunt Michel
WR Hopkins Lamb, Boyd McLaurin Higgins Pittman Hardman Mooney G Davis
TE Engram, Fant, Gesicki
Team 3
QB Herbert Fields
RB A Kamara B Robinson J Ford K Miller
WR Metcalf Olave K Shakir D Wicks G Davis J Palmer J Myers Mims
TE Kittle Freiermuth
Team 4
QB Burrow Carr Goff
RB M Sanders K Herbert R Johnson C Rodtiguez
WR J Chase T Higgins C Olave C Godwin D Samuel C Sutton G Davis J Hyatt J Palmer D Wicks
TE G Kittle D Shultz Fant
Team 5 Superflex
QB Fields Pickett Howell
RB Bijan Robinson B Hall Barkley J Warren C Brown Hubbard
WR Godwin Higgins J Palmer Sutton Mims Wicks
TE Fant Kmet Mayer
Team 1
QB P Mahomes D Jones Howell
RB A Jones M Sanders B Robinson K Miller
WR A.J Brown CD Lamb G Wilson M Pittman G Davis D Hopkins C Sutton
D Mooney J Myers
TE Freiermuth Meyer Chig
Team 2
QB Mahomes Tua
RB Montgomery Hunt Michel
WR Hopkins Lamb, Boyd McLaurin Higgins Pittman Hardman Mooney G Davis
TE Engram, Fant, Gesicki
Team 3
QB Herbert Fields
RB A Kamara B Robinson J Ford K Miller
WR Metcalf Olave K Shakir D Wicks G Davis J Palmer J Myers Mims
TE Kittle Freiermuth
Team 4
QB Burrow Carr Goff
RB M Sanders K Herbert R Johnson C Rodtiguez
WR J Chase T Higgins C Olave C Godwin D Samuel C Sutton G Davis J Hyatt J Palmer D Wicks
TE G Kittle D Shultz Fant
Team 5 Superflex
QB Fields Pickett Howell
RB Bijan Robinson B Hall Barkley J Warren C Brown Hubbard
WR Godwin Higgins J Palmer Sutton Mims Wicks
TE Fant Kmet Mayer
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
It’s not out of the question that next year MHjr or Nabers is worth more than JJ on their own, and the other also has solid value. I’d love a share of JJ, I’ve never had him and always wanted him, but I do have Chase and CD (which feels similar to JJ) and I’d trade either for MHjr + Nabers.
I will echo go with your gut tho, what would you feel worse about; swinging and missing or passing and they blow up?
I will echo go with your gut tho, what would you feel worse about; swinging and missing or passing and they blow up?
12 team. PPR. QB pass td = 6
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)
QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry
Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)
Starters: QB(1) FLEX (RB/WR/TE)(2) RB(2) WR(3) TE(1)
QB: AR, DJones
RB: Gibby, Charb, KMiller, Akers
WR: Chase, Lamb, G Wilson, Tank Dell, Burks, Mimsy, Tutu, W Robinson, Tucker, Wicks, RBell
TE: DNjoku, Hunter Henry
Draft Picks: 2024: 1.2, 1.5, 1.11. 2025: 1st Round (2) 2nd Round (1), 2026: 1st Round (1) 2nd Round (2)
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
Rookie fever in full swing here.
Team 1
Dynasty 10 team, 22 roster + 6 Taxi, PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, Def
QB: Love, Goff, Fields
RB: Bijan, Montgomery, Kamara, Ford, K Herbert, Zeke, Mattison
WR: Jefferson, Olave, London, Ridley, Sutton, Shaheed
TE: Kincaid, Kittle, Freiermuth
K: Tucker, Sanders
DEF: CLE
Taxi: Charbs, K Mitchell, Demercado, QJ, D Douglas, W Robinson, Hooker
Picks
2024: 1.03, 3.06, 3.09, 4.09
2025: 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Team 2
Dynasty 10 team, 22 man roster + 6 Taxi, PPR, SF and TEP
1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 S Flex
QB: Allen, Goff, Watson, Jones
RB: K Williams, B Robinson, Chubb, Ford, Mostert, A Gibson, Dillon, Pierce, Zeke
WR: Olave, T Hill, Addison, D Adams, C Watson, D Johnson, G Davis, OBJ
TE: Kincaid, Kmet, Goedert
Taxi: Mitchell, DTR, Mims, K Miller, Douglas, Vaughn
Picks
2024: 1.08, 3.02, 3.09
2025: 1, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
Dynasty 10 team, 22 roster + 6 Taxi, PPR
1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex, 1 TE, K, Def
QB: Love, Goff, Fields
RB: Bijan, Montgomery, Kamara, Ford, K Herbert, Zeke, Mattison
WR: Jefferson, Olave, London, Ridley, Sutton, Shaheed
TE: Kincaid, Kittle, Freiermuth
K: Tucker, Sanders
DEF: CLE
Taxi: Charbs, K Mitchell, Demercado, QJ, D Douglas, W Robinson, Hooker
Picks
2024: 1.03, 3.06, 3.09, 4.09
2025: 2, 3, 3, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Team 2
Dynasty 10 team, 22 man roster + 6 Taxi, PPR, SF and TEP
1QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 S Flex
QB: Allen, Goff, Watson, Jones
RB: K Williams, B Robinson, Chubb, Ford, Mostert, A Gibson, Dillon, Pierce, Zeke
WR: Olave, T Hill, Addison, D Adams, C Watson, D Johnson, G Davis, OBJ
TE: Kincaid, Kmet, Goedert
Taxi: Mitchell, DTR, Mims, K Miller, Douglas, Vaughn
Picks
2024: 1.08, 3.02, 3.09
2025: 1, 3, 4, 5
2026: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
If this is SF (which I assumed, maybe incorrectly), we're probably talking about 1.02+1.05. What does the trade calc say about JJ versus 1.02+1.05?
TEAM 1:
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
12 Team ppr w/20 keepers - start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 1FLX 6IDP 1DEF
QB: Tua, Lamar, CWilliams
RB: Etienne, Pacheco, JFord, Corum, JWright
WR: Lamb, JChase, Waddle, Pickens, Q Johnston, DeDouglas, MCorley
TE: Goedert, Okongwo
DEF: Cowboys, Ravens
IDP:(LB) Bolton, DLloyd; (DE/DL) Sieler; (S/CB) Pitre, Bates
2023 & 2022 Champion: 2020 third place: 2019 Champion
TEAM 2:
14 Team 30roster SF/ppr/TEP - QB/RB/WR/TE/5FLX/SF
QB: Tua, CJStroud, Carr, AOC, MWhite, Lock
RB: Etienne, Stevenson, GusE, Singletary, AJD, CEH, Spiller
WR: Amon-Ra, Kirk, Dell, Thielen, Gallup, VJefferson, Ch Jones
TE: Andrews, Waller, Taysom, Smythe, WMallory, JOliver
2023 semifinals loser
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Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
JJ is a stud and still in mid 20s, hes worth more than one of the top 2 rooks
Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
I could be wrong on 1QB versus SF, maybe I got some threads mashed together. In SF, mod on, still has 1.02 + 1.05 >> JJ, with 1071 versus 840, which means it’s off by a random ~2025 1st
As is, I agree with the calc favorite side, and prefer MHjr + Nabers to JJ on his own. But it’s closer to me than a 2025 1st, so if JJ’s side added a 2025 1st I’d prefer that. wow, value on that is crazy close (1099 for the picks and 1099.4 for JJ + 2025 1st)
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Re: Jefferson or the Rooks
Not adding a 1st to JJ lol. The deal is just weird because people aren’t actually making this trade. We are just putting a value to it but nothing like this will ever happen with any kind of frequency.
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