Mingo vs Tillman vs Reed

[wickerkat1212]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

There are rankings and then there is ADP. A guy just said he got Tillman at 3.06 so...?

[lic217]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

Watch his 2022 tape. It’s impressive and it’s in the sec. Rice could not consistently get desperation vs less competition.

[Ice]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

Watch his 2022 tape. It’s impressive and it’s in the sec. Rice could not consistently get desperation vs less competition.

I think Tillman is falling for 2 reasons. He doesn't get the press.

1) He played hurt all this past year but was a monster in 2021
2) He went to the Browns.

I think he will develop with Watson and be a legit WR by 2024 but may actually start week 1. He is a legit X type and plays the game aggressively. One of my most underrated players in the draft.

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

[wickerkat1212]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

Watch his 2022 tape. It’s impressive and it’s in the sec. Rice could not consistently get desperation vs less competition.

I think Tillman is falling for 2 reasons. He doesn't get the press.

1) He played hurt all this past year but was a monster in 2021
2) He went to the Browns.

I think he will develop with Watson and be a legit WR by 2024 but may actually start week 1. He is a legit X type and plays the game aggressively. One of my most underrated players in the draft.

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

Agree

[YouMightDieTryin]

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I keep hearing this, but he ran a 4.4. It's really not burner speed. Tillman was a much better prospect before the injuries. Hyatt did get better, but he's not Ruggs speed that is a huge game changer. Overall I have them ranked fairly close.

[Sriracha]

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I keep hearing this, but he ran a 4.4. It's really not burner speed. Tillman was a much better prospect before the injuries. Hyatt did get better, but he's not Ruggs speed that is a huge game changer. Overall I have them ranked fairly close.

The forty is a mixture of explosiveness and top end speed. Hyatt hit 23 mph which would've placed him as the 2nd fastest player in the NFL last year behind (I believe) Raheem Mostert.

[Sriracha]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

Watch his 2022 tape. It’s impressive and it’s in the sec. Rice could not consistently get desperation vs less competition.

I think Tillman is falling for 2 reasons. He doesn't get the press.

1) He played hurt all this past year but was a monster in 2021
2) He went to the Browns.

I think he will develop with Watson and be a legit WR by 2024 but may actually start week 1. He is a legit X type and plays the game aggressively. One of my most underrated players in the draft.

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I'll have to go and give him another look.. My initial reaction to him was that he was a solid player with a limited ceiling.

It seems like you guys aren't a fan of Rashee Rice but I see a lot of room for him to grow as a receiver and he has some intriguing traits to work with. I like him a lot better than Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore who's lack of success thus far has muted the KC landing spot.

[wickerkat1212]

Watch his 2022 tape. It’s impressive and it’s in the sec. Rice could not consistently get desperation vs less competition.

I think Tillman is falling for 2 reasons. He doesn't get the press.

1) He played hurt all this past year but was a monster in 2021
2) He went to the Browns.

I think he will develop with Watson and be a legit WR by 2024 but may actually start week 1. He is a legit X type and plays the game aggressively. One of my most underrated players in the draft.

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I'll have to go and give him another look.. My initial reaction to him was that he was a solid player with a limited ceiling.

It seems like you guys aren't a fan of Rashee Rice but I see a lot of room for him to grow as a receiver and he has some intriguing traits to work with. I like him a lot better than Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore who's lack of success thus far has muted the KC landing spot.

I like Rice a lot as well. Great landing spot.

[mild]

The forty is a mixture of explosiveness and top end speed. Hyatt hit 23 mph which would've placed him as the 2nd fastest player in the NFL last year behind (I believe) Raheem Mostert.

Yeah, Bingo to this. If he had run the 40 a tiny split faster suddenly he's a "4.3" guy and that changes everyone's opinion of him. He literally ran a 4.40 flat. Cracks me up that people don't think that that's fast.

If you watch his tape, it's clear that 4.4 aka an "average" 40 time isn't really capturing what's going on there. His build up speed is very real.

I also trust Daboll to maximise him. He's going to use him as precisely what he is - a clearout deep threat that the G-men desperately need - but if there's anything MORE there that he can do... Daboll will find it.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I keep hearing this, but he ran a 4.4. It's really not burner speed. Tillman was a much better prospect before the injuries. Hyatt did get better, but he's not Ruggs speed that is a huge game changer. Overall I have them ranked fairly close.

The forty is a mixture of explosiveness and top end speed. Hyatt hit 23 mph which would've placed him as the 2nd fastest player in the NFL last year behind (I believe) Raheem Mostert.

Sure but they run the 40 without pads on. In pads is totally different. David Johnson in his prime ran a 4.50 40 (good, not great) but in pads NOBODY was catching him from behind. Also the 40 yard dash in total factors in the initial burst, which is probably half of what we care about. the top speed at the end isn't as meaningful. And comparing top speed with pads and without, in game and not in game, is even less meaningful, imo. It's like how Najee hit 22+ mph or something on a treadmill and suddenly he's not slow on a football field. Nah fam, dude is still slow.

[Sriracha]

I keep hearing this, but he ran a 4.4. It's really not burner speed. Tillman was a much better prospect before the injuries. Hyatt did get better, but he's not Ruggs speed that is a huge game changer. Overall I have them ranked fairly close.

The forty is a mixture of explosiveness and top end speed. Hyatt hit 23 mph which would've placed him as the 2nd fastest player in the NFL last year behind (I believe) Raheem Mostert.

Sure but they run the 40 without pads on. In pads is totally different. David Johnson in his prime ran a 4.50 40 (good, not great) but in pads NOBODY was catching him from behind. Also the 40 yard dash in total factors in the initial burst, which is probably half of what we care about. the top speed at the end isn't as meaningful.

It's meaningful for breakaway runs which is why no one's catching Fournette, AJB, Derrick Henry or other bigger guys that take time to reach top end speed.

Agreed that it's less meaningful than the 40 for the average player which is why the 40 is the gold standard of speed in the NFL.

[MFundercover]

Is Tillman really being selected in the same range as these guys?

It's been Mingo/Rice/Reed in all of the drafts I've been in and that grouping makes a lot more sense.

There are rankings and then there is ADP. A guy just said he got Tillman at 3.06 so...?

That was me. Mingo was 1.12, Rice was 2.12, Tillman was 3.06 in my draft.

Results may vary though and after the first round or so ADP is all over the place. For what's it's worth I'd probably rank them the same, Mingo, Reed, Tillman.

Still thrilled to grab him at 306

[Ice]

Many are seeing the shiny speed of Hyatt but I like Tillman better for fantasy.

I keep hearing this, but he ran a 4.4. It's really not burner speed. Tillman was a much better prospect before the injuries. Hyatt did get better, but he's not Ruggs speed that is a huge game changer. Overall I have them ranked fairly close.

The forty is a mixture of explosiveness and top end speed. Hyatt hit 23 mph which would've placed him as the 2nd fastest player in the NFL last year behind (I believe) Raheem Mostert.

I agree.

I wasn't talking about Hyatt's 40 time. He has great game speed. I like him but I see Tillman as doing the dirty work over the middle with a more subtle versatile approach to route running. He actually reminds me a bit of A. Cooper but not as polished at this point. Love his landing spot to learn the pro game.

Hyatt is more of a Thoroughbred than a Quarter Horse type. Hyatt gathers speed as he is going vs a Quarter Horse type that is at full speed in 3 strides. Not knocking Hyatt as he can rip the lid off a defense but I think Tillman has more tools in his repertoire as a fantasy WR.

[mild]

Mingo my third rated wr in draft. Tillman fourth. Reed around 10th. I think Tillman and Mingo severely underrated.

And a 3rd rating might be too low.

Mingo has WR1 upside on his team quickly and should be a steady Fantasy starter for years.

I can definitely see Mingo's path to relevance. Out of the three players in the thread title, his potential to earn targets is -wide open- to become Bryce Young's number 1 guy (for 2023 at least).

However.



There are some pretty troubling metrics about his profile that I'll need some answers on before I fully start buying in like the "film experts" around here.

[Dynasty DeLorean]

Mingo my third rated wr in draft. Tillman fourth. Reed around 10th. I think Tillman and Mingo severely underrated.

And a 3rd rating might be too low.

Mingo has WR1 upside on his team quickly and should be a steady Fantasy starter for years.

I can definitely see Mingo's path to relevance. Out of the three players in the thread title, his potential to earn targets is -wide open- to become Bryce Young's number 1 guy (for 2023 at least).

However.



There are some pretty troubling metrics about his profile that I'll need some answers on before I fully start buying in like the "film experts" around here.

You can explain with rose colored glasses.

He had to contend with Elijah Moore for his first 2 years. His 3rd year it looked like Mingo was set to break out, posting games of 55 yards, 99 yards, and then 136 yards in his first 3 games. He then broke his foot and tried to come back later in the season but his foot wasn't right. This wiped out essentially that entire season and he had to get it cleaned up in the offseason. His final season he didn't post gaudy stats but he did have a nearly 24% target share, which is around the 70th percentile (very high). I thought the college dominator might be an issue, but I checked all the receivers drafted in the 1st or 2nd round of the NFL draft that are taller than 6 feet, and college dominator doesn't seem to play any role in how successful they were. The lowest on the list (so between 25-30% college dominator) are Jerry Jeudy, DK Metcalf, Mike Williams, Tee Higgins and Justin Jefferson. College target share actually appears to be much more predictive (Kevin White and Breshad Perriman are at the bottom of that list), which Mingo has in spades.

If we do a simple search of players using common sense criteria, so 1st-2nd round draft capital, let's say 6'2" or taller, good size (210lbs+), fast (good weight-adjusted speed), and can jump out of the gym, we come up with this list of players. I'll sort by height.

6''5"
Mike evans

6'4"
Chase Claypool
Michael Pittman
Mike Williams
Tee Higgins
Devin Funchess

6'3"
Courtland Sutton
Michael Thomas
DK Metcalf
Julio Jones
Kevin White

6'2"
Jonathan Mingo
Treylon Burks
N'Keal Harry
Allen Robinson
Breshad Perriman

I colored the players red that have red flags (so low college target share and/or low college level of competition).

Now, Mingo's 6'2" group doesn't look so hot, however if you factor in the "red flags" of college level of competition and college target share, according to player profiler (idk how accurate these numbers are), N'Keal Harry and Treylon Burks level of competition are in the toilet, and Breshad Perriman's college target share is in the toilet. Mingo doesn't have any of those same concerns, and if you are wearing rose colored glasses, his only remaining true comp would be Allen Robinson.

I'll post the 6'1" receivers as well, although I will point out that I used the same criteria as above except I did not trim this group for size. All weights welcome in this group.

6'1"
Calvin Ridley
Laviska Shenault
Juju Smith-Schuster
Jerry Jeudy
Justin Jefferson
Jameson Williams
Amari Cooper
Davante Adams
DeAndre Hopkins
sammy Watkins

Technically, TECHNICALLY, Mingo is not quite 6'2", he's 6'1 3/4. So... rose colored glasses?






Also just happened to randomly stumble across this tweet

2019-2020: Elijah Moore
2021: 101.3 YPG before fracturing foot.
Returned too soon, had surgery again shortly after
2022: Averaged 3.45 YPRR first 6 games (would have led all Power 5 WRs), and then teams started bracketing him, so the offense turned to Heath
Offers ideal size, elite athleticism, really good final season YAC/R (3rd-best in class)
So, this would be the upside argument to an otherwise pedestrian analytics profile. But it's all you'll ever hear from people in the know. And every film head I talked to thinks he's an easy top-5 talent

And this

Mingo caught 51 passes for 861 yards and five touchdowns last season. Those numbers don't tell the whole story. When Ole Miss ran out of tight ends due to injuries, Mingo filled in a lot of the time. His 6-foot-2,
220-pound body allowed him to do so. It certainly cost him catches.