Dynasty League Football Forum

Phaded wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:58 pm

Raymond1974 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:44 pm he scored last week and put up 17 points in MFL. With more targets he'll put up numbers.

If he wants more targets he should:

a) Get open more
b) Drop less
c) Do more with what he does get

The drops are a bit of an issue (although to be fair a couple of those "drops" in week one in the end zone were tipped passes/bad throws) but that first point just isn't true at all, last year Cooper was 4th in the NFL in yards of separation per target out of all receivers who saw at least 100 targets when split out wide, the only receivers better at creating separation than Cooper was were Antonio Brown, OBJ, and Terrelle Pryor. As for your third point Cooper had 13.9 yards per catch last year, ahead of Evans, OBJ, Brown, DT, Jordy, Pryor, and MThomas and he's one of the few heavilty targeted receivers that averaged over 13.5 yards/catch over each of the past 2 seasons (and led the NFL in 30+ yard TD catches with 5 last year) so he does plenty with what he gets

The problem with Cooper is that Carr loves him some Crabtree; and it's Crab, not Cooper, that gets the TDs.

It all depends on your perspective. With all the hype and massive expectations people forget the kid just turned 23 in June.

Typically we talk about patience for WRs and coming about in their 3rd and 4th years. He's posted 72/1000/6 & 83/1150/5 in his first two seasons, while having the best co-wide receiver playing alongside him amongst any of the elites.

Julio, OBJ, AJG, Dez, Brown don't have another near that level to compete for targets with. I bought "low" on him this season, so I am far from a long-holding truther expecting WR1 overall outcomes, but i like the kid's potential.

Orenthal Shames wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:03 pm It all depends on your perspective. With all the hype and massive expectations people forget the kid just turned 23 in June.

Typically we talk about patience for WRs and coming about in their 3rd and 4th years. He's posted 72/1000/6 & 83/1150/5 in his first two seasons, while having the best co-wide receiver playing alongside him amongst any of the elites.

Julio, OBJ, AJG, Dez, Brown don't have another near that level to compete for targets with. I bought "low" on him this season, so I am far from a long-holding truther expecting WR1 overall outcomes, but i like the kid's potential.

Agreed. I've said in the past that Cooper's early career in both real football and fantasy remind me a lot of the Julio/Roddy situation at the beginning of Julio's career. This lead to Julio being thought of as wildly overrated and overpriced as a dynasty asset by many, and it took several years before Julio truly became a stud. I don't think Cooper quite has Julio's ceiling, but if we keep things in perspective I think Cooper is off to a fine start to his career. Over 2200 yards receiving as a 21yo rookie and 22yo sophomore isn't anything to scoff at. It just seems like a disappointment to many in the dynasty community because of the price tag that he carries. This isn't Redraft, player values and prices aren't just tied to current production

You don't want to see a player trend backwards though, like... Jordan Matthews for example. You want to see progression.

Dynasty DeLorean wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:22 pm You don't want to see a player trend backwards though, like... Jordan Matthews for example. You want to see progression.

I don't really think he's trended backwards, or at least I think it's too soon to make that declaration. I certainly don't think he made a big leap from year 1 to year 2 though, and with only being two games into this season we've yet to see enough to determine that. I will admit that it does look like Cooper has been on a plateau since his rookie season, which is some cause for concern.

I don't think there is anything wrong with Amari. He is only 23 years-old; and just starting his 3rd season.

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:51 pm

Phaded wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:58 pm

Raymond1974 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:44 pm he scored last week and put up 17 points in MFL. With more targets he'll put up numbers.

If he wants more targets he should:

a) Get open more
b) Drop less
c) Do more with what he does get

The drops are a bit of an issue (although to be fair a couple of those "drops" in week one in the end zone were tipped passes/bad throws) but that first point just isn't true at all, last year Cooper was 4th in the NFL in yards of separation per target out of all receivers who saw at least 100 targets when split out wide, the only receivers better at creating separation than Cooper was were Antonio Brown, OBJ, and Terrelle Pryor. As for your third point Cooper had 13.9 yards per catch last year, ahead of Evans, OBJ, Brown, DT, Jordy, Pryor, and MThomas and he's one of the few heavilty targeted receivers that averaged over 13.5 yards/catch over each of the past 2 seasons (and led the NFL in 30+ yard TD catches with 5 last year) so he does plenty with what he gets

Sorry to be that guy that point out the flaw in a stat and not be able to add anything else but if PFF has a yards of separation per attempt that would be much more revealing, but the yard per target isnt exactly a good counter to him not getting open enough.

Reason being, it only looks at when he get the target right? Which means that he would likely have his separation on that one play. But the yards of separation per attempt would factor in all of the alleged times he doesn't get open, then we can see how much separation he gets on every down eh?

Cooper is soft. He struggles vs physical press corners and it's pretty evident he doesn't have the alpha dog go get it mentality like Crabtree does. He's had some horrendous mind numbing drops.

I've been looking to sell since day 1 but I'm not selling for anything short of elite wr1 value.

nathanq42 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:49 pm

StableOfRBs wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:51 pm

Phaded wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 6:58 pm

If he wants more targets he should:

a) Get open more
b) Drop less
c) Do more with what he does get

The drops are a bit of an issue (although to be fair a couple of those "drops" in week one in the end zone were tipped passes/bad throws) but that first point just isn't true at all, last year Cooper was 4th in the NFL in yards of separation per target out of all receivers who saw at least 100 targets when split out wide, the only receivers better at creating separation than Cooper was were Antonio Brown, OBJ, and Terrelle Pryor. As for your third point Cooper had 13.9 yards per catch last year, ahead of Evans, OBJ, Brown, DT, Jordy, Pryor, and MThomas and he's one of the few heavilty targeted receivers that averaged over 13.5 yards/catch over each of the past 2 seasons (and led the NFL in 30+ yard TD catches with 5 last year) so he does plenty with what he gets

Sorry to be that guy that point out the flaw in a stat and not be able to add anything else but if PFF has a yards of separation per attempt that would be much more revealing, but the yard per target isnt exactly a good counter to him not getting open enough.

Reason being, it only looks at when he get the target right? Which means that he would likely have his separation on that one play. But the yards of separation per attempt would factor in all of the alleged times he doesn't get open, then we can see how much separation he gets on every down eh?

Don't have a PFF subscription so I have no idea whether they have a stat like that or not, got the info from an article Matt Harmon wrote up earlier this year. Speaking of Harmon, he's the guy who writes up all of the Reception Perception profiles for different receivers and measures their success rates for each route on the tree and against different types of coverage (he defines a success as being open enough that any reasonable QB would feel comfortable throwing to that receiver so somewhat arbitrary but not wildly so) and does so based on routes run, whether targeted or not.

2016 Amari Cooper Success Rates, 307 routes run:

Vs Man Coverage: 186 routes run, 69.4%*
Vs Zone Coverage: 117 routes run, 88%**
Vs Press Coverage: 98 routes run, 66.3%*
Vs Double Coverage: 19 routes run, 63.2%*
Slant Routes: 76.6%*
Nine Routes: 62.1%**
Post Routes: 80.6%**
Dig Routes: 80%**
Curl Routes: 80.6%**
Corner Routes: 88.2%**
Out Routes: 73.3%*
Comeback Routes: 100%**
Flat Routes: 83.3%**
"Other" Routes: 73.7%**
Screen Routes: 100%**

* = within NFL average
** = above NFL average

He had a better success rate in at least 3 out of 4 coverage types than ARob, Fitzgerald, Crabtree, Edelman, Martavis, Brandin Cooks, Alshon, Kelvin, Cobb, Adams, Hilton, DT, Tate, Hopkins, Baldwin, Coleman, Crowder, etc.

Crabtree:
................Tgts.........Rec........Yds.........TD
2015:........146..........85...........922.........9
2016:........145..........89........1,033.........8
2017:..........13..........12..........163.........3 (2 weeks)

Amari:
2015:........130..........72........1,070........6
2016:........132..........83........1,153........5
2017:..........18...........9.............95........1 (2 weeks)

Wile E. Coyote wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:27 pm Crabtree:
................Tgts.........Rec........Yds.........TD
2015:........146..........85...........922.........9
2016:........145..........89........1,033.........8
2017:..........13..........12..........163.........3 (2 weeks)

Amari:
2015:........130..........72........1,070........6
2016:........132..........83........1,153........5
2017:..........18...........9.............95........1 (2 weeks)

So based off this last season cooper did more in terms of both catches and yards on a per target basis than Crabtree. He did have 3 less scores in those 13 less targets but if you extrapolate his per target up to Crabtrees target number he would have had 2 more catches and over 200 yards more than Crabtree did

flyersfan1981 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:44 pm

Phaded wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:37 pm I have said it before and I am going to say it again.

Crabtree is the better receiver.
They complement eachother well; but Cooper has always been overvalued by the fantasy community.

Hell, I am a Raider fan and even I sold him last year. The problem is that the best case scenario has been baked into his cost.

Can we just stop the thread here?

Creeping up on three pages of rationalization when the thread was already won on the fourth reply.

M-Dub wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 10:59 pm

flyersfan1981 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:44 pm

Phaded wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2017 5:37 pm I have said it before and I am going to say it again.

Crabtree is the better receiver.
They complement eachother well; but Cooper has always been overvalued by the fantasy community.

Hell, I am a Raider fan and even I sold him last year. The problem is that the best case scenario has been baked into his cost.

Can we just stop the thread here?

Creeping up on three pages of rationalization when the thread was already won on the fourth reply.

I'm not quite sure it has though, his best case scenario is a top 3 dynasty WR, if that were baked into his cost then you could trade him straight up for Evans/OBJ/AB/Julio which 99% of the time you cannot do despite the fact that he's younger than all of them by at least a year (and dynasty owners love youth) and in fact you'd more likely than not need to add a significant piece to him to make that trade (a WR2/RB2 or a high pick or some combination there of). I'd be willing to bet in most leagues you couldn't trade him straight up for AJ Green despite the 6 year age difference and a better QB.

Being a lifelong Raider fan who has lived in the Bay Area my entire life, there are two things that truly baffled me in recent years: 1. The dynasty community being so high on Latavius Murray when the team was always vocal to local media about not truly believing in him (but this stuff very rarely made it's way to the mainstream media. Even all the Raider homers on here kept telling people to pump the brakes on Latavius), and 2. Amari Cooper already going top five in start ups.

I'll start off by saying I think Cooper has top five start up POTENTIAL, but I wouldn't draft him there (yet). Look at the big picture like this:

-Cooper's redraft ADP was late 2nd-early 3rd, so right off the bat we already have a large difference between where people are valuing him long-term and what people are actually expecting short-term. I'd imagine anybody investing top 4-8 overall start up resources in him (whether it be drafting or trading for him) is doing so expecting him to perform at that level, which would be a top 2-4 overall WR. BUT, in redraft, Julio, OBJ, Evans, Jordy, AJG, Cooks, MThomas, and Hilton were almost always going ahead of him (8 WRs) and in some leagues Dez, Baldwin, DeAndre as well (so let's say redrafters were investing at roughly WR10-14 prices). Where did Amari finish in WR standings week 1?...WR12...and then it's difficult to really put much weight into the distribution of the raiders passing game when you consider context: 45-20 score; a few turnovers set them off for quick and easy scores; Richard had few long plays that put the team in position to score; despite the score, Carr didn't exactly light up the stat sheet - he only threw for 230 yards. To sum this part up...I'd say he's performing about exactly where most were expecting him to this year - a low end WR1 - high end WR2 with upside for more some weeks.

-Crabtree is drastically undervalued, and has been for a while. I think the combination of his bad situation in SF and his attitude rubbing people the wrong way decreased his value. I think too often people take fantasy production and use that to determine talent, but that is only a piece of the puzzle, and Crabtree has always been more talented than his stats would suggest (similar to Fitzgerald during some of his down years...people disliking DeSean Jackson's personality...Ryan Mathews injuries making people forget the guy was actually pretty darn good when healthy...etc).

When you look at the first round of dynasty drafts, I think the biggest reason ends up going so high comes down to age: owners are faced with trying to select one player to build their franchise around for the next decade, and there aren't many options under 25. I'd imagine some people are looking at the options like:

1.01: Odell BeckhamJ Jr: proven production and only 24 years old. Slight off-field concerns personality wise, but a safe investment otherwise.
1.02: Mike Evans: Proven production, young QB, only 24 years old.
1.03: David Johnson: Maybe the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football right now, only 25 years old.
1.04: Le'Veon Bell: Proven production, only 25 years old, few long-term concerns with the contract + weed tests.
1.05: Amari Cooper: Two solid seasons to start his career, only 23 years old.

When you look at the other options like this, it's not surprising Cooper is going so high:

1.06: Antonio Brown: STUD, but, he's 29 years old, which is close to 30, which is close to old...ageists will drop his value soon
1.07: Julio Jones: STUD, but, he's 28 years old, which is two years from 30, which is close to being close to being old for dynasty players
1.08: Ezekiel Elliot: off-field concerns, suspensions looming, and he's a running back...which most dynasty drafters have tried to avoid
1.09: AJ Green: STUD, but, he's 28-29 years old, and doesn't have an elite QB + Ross/Eifert/Mixon competition
1.10: Michael Thomas: Probably a safer short-term investment production wise, but tied to Brees, so people don't know what to expect 2+ years from now (maybe they're afraid of a value drop similar to DT's after Peyton left?)
1.11: Melvin Gordon: Running back, some question if his talent matches last years production
1.12: Devontae Freeman: Running back, some question if he is THAT much better than Coleman, Shanahan left
2.01: Dez Bryant: 28, offense is built to run
2.02: TY Hilton, safe, young QB, not young/not old at 27...but people still remember his early career inconsistencies
2.03: Brandon Cooks: Tied to Brady, uncertainty 2+ years from now like Thomas, not sure how he'll fit new offense
2.04: DeAndre Hopkins: Down year, uncertainty at QB
2.05: Todd Gurley: Running back, hasn't lived up to sky-high expectations
2.06: Rob Gronkowski: injuries with a stress on plural, uncertainty at QB 2+ years from now
2.07: Sammy Watkins: injuries, traded to what many viewed as a terrible situation
2.08: Corey Davis hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.09: Leonard Fournette: hadn't stepped foot on an NFL field yet
2.10: Keenan Allen: Injuries + Rivers isn't exactly young + Hunter Henry/Mike Williams competition for targets
2.12: Jordan Howard: JAG imo. He'll produce until someone with more talent comes along.

After that we get into Ajayi (RB/bad knee?), Baldwin (producing above talent level?), ARob (Bortles), McCaffery, Jordy (32), Dalvin, Alshon, QBs, Diggs, Kelce, Demaryius (age/QB), LeSean (age/RB/bad team), Landry/Parker, Martavis (puff puff sit out a year), Pryor (has played WR in what...18 games?), Tyreek (gimmick? or for real?)

So really....unless you want to start your franchise with a 28-30 year WR, an RB, or an unproven rookie....Cooper all of a sudden becomes an attractive option at 1.04 even though redrafters are expecting him to produce at a 2.10-3.02 rate. IMO, it comes down to expectation vs reality. The reality is the masses were valuing him at WR8-14 for this year and he started the season off producing close to that...but most Dynasty owners are hoping for WR1-4 overall production and dismissing Crabtree, even though he has been the value play for two years now.

Having said all of that, if I were doing a start up draft and I wanted to play it safe and take someone I felt wouldn't bust or lose half their value two years from now...Cooper would be towards the top of my list of options. I just wouldn't pay those prices in an established league where I already had a strong/competitive core built.